FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Night Edition

October 13th, 2018

Week 6: Lineup Starts & Sits

In my season long leagues, I have several line-up conundrums I am facing this week with players like RB-Adrian Peterson, RB-Isaiah Crowell, and TE-Greg Olsen.

These are some of my Week Starts;

QB-Kirk Cousins, Min: The Vikings signal caller is back home this week coming off a big win over the Eagles in week 5. In his last four starts Cousin has passed for no fewer than 296 yards (over 400 yards twice) and completed over 30 passes. With the running game stuck in neutral, the Vikings have leaned on Cousins arm and Sunday should be more of the same.

RB-Tevin Coleman, Atl: With Devonta Freeman OUT in this one, Coleman should see enough opportunity to take advantage of a poor Buccaneers defense ranked 8th in most fantasy points allowed to opposing runners.

RB-TJ Yeldon, Jax: With Leonard Fournette still sidelined, I like Yeldon’s workload. In his last two games Yeldon is averaging 19.5 touches, including 10 targets in week 5. He’s also scored 3 times in the last two weeks.

WR-Calvin Ridley, Atl: I’m riding with Calvin for another week. He’s coming off a let down in week 5, but this matchup against the Buccaneers is a can’t pass up. Ridley has six touchdowns this season and on Sunday he’ll be looking for number seven.

TE-Greg Olsen, Car: The Panthers don’t have any reliable passing receiving options outside of running back Christian McCaffrey, so with tight end Greg Olsen returning, he should step into a situation where he’ll likely be heavily involved. He’s a risk playing with the foot injury, but if he’s on the field, he’s in my lineup.

Here are some of my Sits;

RB-Adrian Peterson, Was: The Redskins offense as a whole was atrocious in week 5, and with Peterson banged up, his week 6 outlook is not very promising. I’ll sit Peterson and avoid this situation.

RB-Nyheim Hines, Ind: With the return of RB-Marlon Mack (expected to start Sunday) and rookie running back Jordan Wilkins seeming to have earned himself some playing time, this is another situation I am going to avoid.

QB-Alex Smith, Was & Redskins receivers: In week 5 on Monday night against the Saints, Smith looked horrible; poor throws, throws in the dirt, inaccurate passes. His performance was enough to have me worried whether he can be trusted. I need to see a strong performance going forward before I trust anyone in the Redskins passing game.

That’s my Take

~David Ortega

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November 18th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 11 Fantasy Notes

Double-Down in DFS

If you playing any DFS, you are probably familiar with stacking or what I like to call double-down, slotting a QB with one of his receivers. This week I like matchup and the cost of Derek Carr with Michael Crabtree ($15,500 total) over such combinations like Brady & Gronk ($16,800). Another double-down I fancy is Alex Smith with Travis Kelce ($15,400), also consider stacking these two with running back Kareem Hunt this week. The savings with these combos is huge and will allow you more room to maneuver when filling out the rest of your lineup.

Diamonds in the Rough

These Diamonds for week 11 are sitting in what I would call short rough. For those of you on the fence with these plays, Jay Cutler (vs TB), Marshawn Lynch (vs NE), Doug Martin (vs Mia), and Marqise Lee (vs Cle), let me offer these quick takes. The Bucs have been awful all season versus the pass and Cutler has more ability and better weapons that Josh McCown. The Patriots allowed over 100 yards rushing to Denver’s backfield, after getting diced for 135 yards by Melvin Gordon. The Dolphins defense is coming off a 200 yards and 6.9 yards per carry allowed performance. Finally Lee is going to be the clear-cut number one on Sunday and should see plenty of volume.

Time to Trade Away or Let Go

While in Packer-land the news is good that quarterback Aaron Rodgers could be back in Week 15, that does fantasy owners no good if they have already been bounced from their respective playoffs. If you are in the hunt to make post-season or chasing a spot, it’s time to trade away of let wide receiver Jordy Nelson go. The preference is to trade, but on limited rosters you aren’t playing Nelson (8 catches, 68 yards last three games). He’ll still have value to someone as a stash for the playoffs, meanwhile you can pick up some talent that you can use now to make the dance.

Also, it’s time to drop tight end Jordan Reed. He’s out again this week and it’s likely he won’t be healthy the rest of the season. He’s a great talent, but injuries have completely upended his season. Through 10 weeks, Reed currently the No.23 fantasy TE (in PPR) has missed 3 games and his best effort came in week 7 when he scored twice and totaled 26.40 fantasy points. In his other five games, he’s only reached double-digit fantasy points in one; time to drop him.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 30th 2017

Monday Morning Edition

Monday Night Takes
(Week 8)

It’s a divisional matchup, a meeting of two potential playoff contenders, and as always a heated AFC West rivalry when the Broncos and the Chiefs clash. Tonight’s meeting shouldn’t disappoint fantasy owners with the Chiefs Alex Smith, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt playing host to the Broncos Trevor Siemian, Demaryius Thomas, and Jamaal Charles.

This could be a tale of two cities or two teams. This season the Chiefs offense (ranked 2nd in total yards, 3rd in scoring) has been off the charts with Smith having an MVP-like season passing the ball, and the emergence of rookie running back Kareem Hunt; he’s been sensational out of the gate.

On the other side, it’s been a different story for Siemian and the Broncos (ranked 15th total yards and 24 in scoring). The Broncos defense has been good this season, but against a team like the Chiefs, they’ll need some help from the offense in this one.

My Takes.

QB-Alex Smith; the Chiefs signal caller has been good this season, but an improved pass rush with the return of Broncos linebacker Shane Ray could slow his roll on Monday night. Fantasy owners looking for a big game from Smith should temper their expectations.

RB-Kareem Hunt; as good as this kid has been this season, it’s hard to imagine any team shutting him down. He was held in check two weeks ago by the Steelers with just 21 rushing yards, but he still managed 89 receiving. The Broncos could keep him bottled up most of the night, but with his volume of touches he should still see double-digit fantasy points.

WR-Demarcus Robinson; it’s going to be tough night for the Chiefs passing game, but with a lot of focus on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce (who will both get their usual opportunities), I like Robinson flying under the radar. He won’t be in for a big night, but he may be able to match his season highs in receptions and yards.

TE-Travis Kelce; if the Broncos defense has a weakness it appears to be covering opposing tight ends. Kelce should be heavily involved tonight and could have a big night. With the defenses concerns focused on stopping Smith and Hunt in the backfield, Kelce is a safe play for owners.

QB-Trevor Siemian; the Broncos passer has not been a fantasy option in weeks and with a tough road matchup (in Arrowhead) on Monday night, I’m not expecting Trevor to summon his inner Peyton. He could have a decent night against a struggling Chiefs secondary, but he’s still not a fantasy option in this matchup.

RB-Jamaal Charles; the Broncos are likely to stick with their ineffective game script of going with CJ Anderson (so he’s the much safer play tonight) early and sprinkling in Charles at times. Being that this is Charles’ old team, the revenge factor does come up. If Charles can break loose for a couple of big plays, this could open up more snaps and touches. Charles has been the more explosive and efficient option this season, the question is will head coach Vance Joseph take a longer look at his speedy back tonight. Charles is too risky for redraft lineups, but could be a flier option in DFS.

WR-Demaryius Thomas; it all comes down to his quarterback, how well DT plays or produces. The offense has been woeful, but thankfully they get a struggling secondary tonight. The bad thing is the game is on the road in Arrowhead where emotions will run high and that could be enough to change things.Regardless of the success or lack of, DT should see enough targets to provide his usual safe (in PPR) 5 for 55.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 19th 2017

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday’s Twitter Takes

It's Thursday night Football and there's nothing like it in the Black-Hole! It's the Raiders and the Chiefs tonight in a pivotal AFC West Divisional Clash. Smith, Carr, Cooper, and Hunt, the stars are out and it should be a good one, so get your pop-corn ready!

"Carr will need to do more than dink and dunk tonight, if the Raiders are to have success!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Raiders quarterback has been banged up this season. He returned last week, but did not look like his normal self, dinking and dunking against the Chargers. Carr’s going to need a bigger game tonight for the Raiders to come out on top.

"Raiders will need to feed Lynch a heavy load of carries tonight!! by @FantsySprtsHome

Running back Marshawn Lynch has been significantly under-used thus far this season. He’s topped 13 carries just once this season back in Week 1. The Raiders need to give Lynch more carries tonight so he can switch to Beast Mode.

"Sleeper tonight could be Cooper, if he can hang on to a couple of passes!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper has not been good this season, but this kid is just too talented to be bad. The Chiefs defense can be had and Cooper has the skills to have them, he just needs plays. I expect the Raiders to take a few shots with Cooper tonight.

"Crabtree should be in for a big night, especially in the Red-Zone" by @FantsySprtsHome

As I mentioned, this Chiefs secondary (25th most passing yards allowed this season) can be had. Crabtree is a Carr favorite especially close the endzone. Look for Crab to find paydirt in this one.

"Could it be another big night for the No.4 fantasy TE Kelce in Primetime?" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Chiefs tight end has played well this season on the big stage. In his last two starts in Prime Time he’s been dominant and the last time he faced the Raiders he torched them for 5 catches and 101 receiving yards. Kelce is a big part of the Chiefs passing game, so expect to see a lot of Red-87.

"Kelce has been big his last two night games; 15/209/1" by @FantsySprtsHome

It’s worth noting Kelce’s last two games under the lights, he’s been targeted 19 times. In these high profile scenarios it seems Andy Reid likes to utilize his big pass catching tight end.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 2nd, 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

After a wild weekend with some big surprises, tonight’s matchup has all the makings of another Prime-Time spectacle with the Redskins traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. It promises to be a raucous atmosphere tonight, as it typically is at Arrowhead Stadium; and Monday night will surely amplify the excitement.

My Takes

Quarterback Kirk Cousins; the Redskins signal caller finally got things going in week 3 against the Raiders. It was a strong showing and solid performance by Cousins that helped lead the Redskins. Tonight he’ll be away from the comfy confines of home and take his show on the road into hostile territory. The Chiefs defense has held up pretty tough this season versus opposing quarterbacks, but they can be had; in week 2 the Chiefs did allow the second most fantasy points (24.8) to opposing quarterbacks. Cousins played great last week and will try to bring the same momentum into tonight, but road games are always tough. I’d expect Cousins to hang in there, but a big game is likely not on the slate; more like 16-18 fantasy points would be in line.

Running backs Chris Thompson & Samaje Perine; the main production tonight will likely come from the more versatile back of the two, Chris Thompson. Samaje (if Rob Kelley is out) is going to see a lot of the 1st and 2nd down work, but Thompson will be sprinkled in all facets and see heavy use in the passing game. Samaje is likely to find little running room against the Chiefs No.7 ranked run defense, owners may want to sit him tonight. Thompson on the other hand has been on fire and while many may believe it’s time for the flames to fan, I like him in the flex tonight. Thompson should see about a half dozen carries or so and get work 7-9 targets in the pass game.

Wide receivers Josh Doctson, Terrelle Pryor, & Jamison Crowder; I’ll run through these real quick; still waiting on Terrelle Pryor to arrive in 2017 and not expecting to see much tonight against Marcus Peters. Crowder is questionable for tonight, but even if he plays while he is a safe play currently his ceiling seems limited; averaging just 6.0 targets the first three weeks. Cousins does spread the ball around pretty good, but the sleeper tonight to watch is wide receiver Josh Doctson. Last week he only had 2 targets, but did connect on a long shot for 52 yards. As time passes, we may see him get more involved.

Tight ends Jordan Reed & Vernon Davis; Always the risk it seems, the play at tight end here is Reed (if he’s healthy). Reed has been a non-factor the first three weeks playing in 2 games. His numbers are not what we expect from a TE1, hyped as he was in the preseason. He’ll be looking to get things going tonight against the Chiefs who struggle with the TE spot. If Reed is out, insert Davis who fared well in week 3 with 5 grabs for 58 yards and a score.

Quarterback Alex Smith; the Chiefs quarterback had a modest week 3 and with the Redskins coming to town, that’s about what I’d normally expect for tonight. You’re probably not starting Smith tonight in smaller redraft leagues, maybe two QB leagues only. The Chiefs will lean on the run and short passing game, but will ask Smith to take a few big shots downfield. Smith has been good this season going downfield more often, so don’t be surprised if totals a bunch of yards, to compliment a few scores.

Running back Kareem Hunt & Charcandrick West; the key for the Chiefs is in the ground game or at least with their ball carrier, Kareem Hunt. Whether they have success running the ball or not, they will work to get the ball in the hands of Hunt. So far through three weeks Hunt has been electric, he’s in line for another 18-22 touches tonight. He’s my No.1 fantasy RB this week. West is nothing more than a handcuff. As long as Hunt is healthy, West won’t see enough work to be fantasy relevant.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley, & Albert Wilson; Head Coach Andy Reid likes to mix things up so much, it’s really hard to gauge where his receivers are. About the only relevant receiver in the Chiefs passing game is Hill. Niether Wilson or Conley can be trusted, only Hill with 22 targets through the first 3 weeks is startable. Tonight’s going to be a tough matchup, but count on Reid to move Hill around and get him the ball in space; despite the matchup, he’s my No. 14 fantasy WR.

Tight end Travis Kelce; Last week Kelce was nearly shut out. Fantasy owners don’t panic, last week was just an anomaly. Reid and his staff will make sure Kelce is involved tonight; i’d expect a bounce back game against the Redskins defense that struggles against tight ends. Kelce is my No.2 fantasy TE this week.

Tonight matchup with the undefeated Chiefs (3-0) and the (2-1) Redskins has the appearance of a great matchup and could be a barn-burner as likely as anything else. Either way, we are in for a good one with plenty of scoring and lots of fantasy implications. Are you ready for some Monday Night Football!

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 29th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch this Week

We are three weeks in and we’ve seen some football, but is it still too early to call it; who the best team is, who the best studs are, and what we can expect the rest of the way? I’d have to say hold that thought. Remember “Any Given Sunday” anything can happen, which leads me to my week 4 “Fantasy Five”...

Can Raiders and Carr bounce back?

Normally I would say that’s a given. Quarterback Derek Carr has that Rodgers like swag, lots of talent and plenty of weapons to go around. The only exception here is the Raiders next opponent; the Denver Broncos. But which Broncos team will show up? Last week the Bills had an fairly easy go. The Broncos have remained stout against the run, so keep Lynch in the stall this week, but I would hang with Carr on Sunday. but don’t expect his greatest success this week. The

Is it time to turn Charles loose?

Last week we saw flashes and throughout these early weeks of the season we’ve seen hints. The Broncos running back Jamaal Charles looks healthy, he’s been running well, it’s time. Last week an ineffective run game for the most part submarined there hopes of winning on the road. I think you have to commit to Charles now if you are ever going to. Turn him loose and see what he can do. You have the luxury of a 1A-1B option in CJ, so you can use him to close games to save the thoroughbred. For now, Charles is still a risky flex, but my gut senses say he’s getting closer to cracking the starting lineup.

Do you trust Eli and the Giants offense?

I for one did not draft too many Giants this season, but I do have Odell Beckham Jr in a couple of leagues, along with running backs Paul Perkins and Shane Vereen. Needless to say after the first few weeks of seeing the mess this offense is, I’ve dropped Vereen and Perkins in a number. OBJ is still in my lineups for the 2-3 leagues I have him in, but it’s painful considering where I drafted him and what I’ve gotten in return. I think you have to wait it out with OBJ, but (Evan) Engram, Perkins, Vereen, and Marshall I am avoiding for the time being.

How good are the Rams and how good is Sean McVay?

It’s too early to be making such grand and bold statements, suggesting the Rams and quarterback Jared Goff are a great offense. But I’ll tell you, through the first three weeks I like what I see and I am buying into what McVay is selling. He’s put some nice pieces together and Goff is night and day from a year ago. I don’t believe we are at the point where you are starting everyone on this offense (just Gurley at the moment, Watkins is a flex), but we are moving closer and closer to seeing others become more prominent as fantasy fixtures. Stay patient.

Can Cousins repeat against Chiefs?

Week 3 was a wake up call for the Redskins offense last week and they were wide awake taking it to the Raiders. They will follow last week’s call with a big road test on Monday night against the Chiefs. Can Cousins repeat his scintillating Sunday night performance, it will be tough. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the loudest places to play in the NFL, but my belief is Cousins is starting to warm up this season and like Alex Smith (who will be on the other side), he’ll have company. Running back Chris Thompson is going to a matchup problem, tight end Jordan Reed (if healthy) will present some issues in the secondary, and the emergence of Josh Doctson who should be on fantasy radars. Cousins should be well equipped and fine on Monday night. He’ll present plenty of problems for the Chiefs defense that before Thursday night have allowed the 7th most passing yards this season.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 20th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

My Week 3 QB Rankings

1. Tom Brady

2. Aaron Rodgers

3. Derek Carr

4. Matt Ryan

5. Drew Brees

6. Matthew Stafford

7. Cam Newton

8. Alex Smith

9. Jameis Winston

10. Marcus Mariota

11. Ben Roethlisberger

12. Philip Rivers

13. Carson Wentz

14. Sam Bradford

15. Kirk Cousins

16. Trevor Siemian

17. Dak Prescott

18. Russell Wilson

19. Carson Palmer

20. Jay Cutler

Just a slight change at the top; this week I give Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (No.1) the nod. Maybe I am just paying homage to his greatness or maybe it’s because in his last three starts against the Texans he has 8 touchdown passes? Or maybe because he’s Tom freakin Brady!

Matthew Stafford (no.6) has been steady this season and with home matchup against the Falcons, I see more points from the air this Sunday. The Falcons defense allows the 12th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including the 5th most passing yards.

Cam Newton (No.7) cracks the Top-10 this week with a sweet matchup against the hapless Saints. In two games this season the Saints defense has allowed 6 passing touchdowns and 793 passing yards, both most in the league. This is just what the fantasy doctor ordered for Newton fantasy owners.

I’m not ready to make quarterback Trevor Siemian a fantasy starter just yet, but with his steady play through the first two weeks of the season, I have him checking in at No.16. Although it would appear he has a tough road matchup at Buffalo this Sunday, Siemian should continue his upward trend versus a defense that has allowed the 10th most completions to opposing quarterbacks.

Sliding all the way down to No.18 this week is Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Over the opening two weeks the offense has sputtered and with tight end Jimmy Graham banged up, Wilson could be shorthanded with some of his receiving weapons. It’s not the toughest matchup at Tennessee this week, but hardly the fix-it serum Wilson the offense is looking for. The Seahawks are more prone to get back on track with the ground game; owners should not be looking for big numbers from the air.

That’s My Take for Week 2.

~David Ortega

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September 19th 2017

Tuesday Late Night Edition

The Weekly Waiver Wire

It’s never too soon to panic and never too early to make moves. For those fantasy owners looking to improve, shake things ups, or fill some holes in your rosters, here are this week’s waiver wire pickups for week 3;

QB-Trevor Siemian (QB2 worthy) The Broncos’ starter continued his excellent play in week 2. He now has 6 passing touchdowns for the season. He’s not QB1 ready yet, but we’ve seen enough to say he should be on rosters as a streaming and backup option for Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousin owners.

QB-Deshaun Watson (roster worthy) the rookie quarterback showed some Michale Vick moves on Thursday night and because of his legs and elusiveness his fantasy value is elevated. He’s not a fantasy starter, but definitely roster worthy in Dynasty leagues and two QB leagues. Owners will have to see how he progresses before playing him in redraft leagues or weekly DFS.

QB-Alex Smith (QB2 worthy) the Chiefs quarterback has been steady through two weeks (5 touchdowns) and surrounded with the playmakers he has in Kansas City, Smith has value as a QB2.

RB-Javorius “Buck” Allen (PPR value) the Ravens primary pass-catching back (5 receptions in week 2) has seen plenty of looks in the ground game with 35 carries through the first two weeks. He’s getting enough touches to be a streaming flex option, especially in PPR formats.

RB-Chris Thompson (PPR value) the Redskins ball carrier is the primary 3rd down back with 7 receptions on 12 targets thus far this season. His roles will likely remain unchanged this week if starter Rob Kelley is out, but he’s getting enough work to warrant a roster spot in PPR leagues.

RB-Samaje Perine (standard) the primary beneficiary if Kelley sits in week Three, is Perine. The Redskins as a team finally got the running game in gear this past Sunday (229 rushing yards) and Perine could continue

WR-JJ Nelson (flex option) the Cardinals receiver has scored in each of the team’s first two games and has been consistently involved in the team’s passing game. Nelson has been targeted 13 times in two games turning in a line of 10/163/2. He’s a weekly flex play.

WR-Allen Hurns (PPR value) the Jaguars receiver may have been dumped and/or overlooked in drafts due to the poor play of Bortles, but last Sunday he resurfaced. Hurns grabbed 6 balls for 82 yards receiving and touchdown on 7 targets. Hurns has value as a low-end flex in larger leagues.

WR-Rashard Higgins (PPR value) the Browns 2nd year receiver had a busy Sunday in week 2 snagging 7 passes on 11 targets. With wide receiver Kenny Britt’s poor start this season and wide receiver Corey Coleman heading for the injured reserve, Higgins looks like the favorite. His week 2 production would appear to make him serviceable as a low-end flex.

Keep on Your Watch List

WR-Brandon Coleman; the Saints receiver had a nice showing on Sunday, but it may be too quick to pull the trigger. Coleman is worth watching.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end had a pretty good second week (8 receptions, 79 yards) after a sub-par week 1 (just 2 catches for 41 yards). He’s one to watch closely, as his numbers could easily continue to trend upward, especially with the prospect of Andrew Luck returning under center at some point.

TE-Benjamin Watson; the Ravens tight end was solid on Sunday with 8 catches and 91 yards after seeing just one target and no catches in week one. Let’s wait see how this trends before making a move, there are still better options.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega