FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

November 29th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Fantasy Football Free Agency

Looking for Week 13 help while chasing a playoff spot, with just a few weeks left to make your move, free agency still has some gems with fantasy appeal.

WR, Jayden Reed (Packers) Only rostered in 49.4% of NFL fantasy leagues and 39.5% of ESPN fantasy leagues, Reed has produced as a solid fantasy WR2 over the last three weeks. During this stretch he has totaled 13 receptions (on 19 targets) for 164 yards receiving, and two touchdown receptions, adding another 62 yards rushing and another score. With a Week 13 matchup against the Chiefs, Reed has flex appeal.

RB, Samaje Perine (Broncos) Only rostered in 31.5% of NFL fantasy leagues and 31.2 of ESPN fantasy leagues, has recently seen enough run to bring him into the flex conversation. Over his last two games Perine has averaged 66.5 yards of offense with 8 receptions and a rushing score. With a Week 13 matchup against the Texans, in what could be a high scoring affair, Perine could once again be a flex option.

WR, Noah Brown (Texans) Perhaps the forgotten man since being sidelined with injury after week 10, Brown still remains available in many leagues, rostered in 35.1% of ESPN fantasy leagues and 15.5% of NFL fantasy leagues. In his last two games Brown totaled 13 receptions for 325 yards receiving with a touchdown. If he plays he’ll have a tough matchup in Week 13 versus a surging Broncos defense, but with receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins also available, he could see favorable matchups and figure in as a flex play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEEKLY WAIVER WIRE

November 21st, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

The Weekly Waiver Wire

Week 12 Top Targets

Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks) With Kenneth Walker going down in Week 11, Charbonnet becomes the top pick up for Week 12. The Seahawks rookie runner is only owned in 32.6% of ESPN leagues. He’ll be nothing more than a low-value flex for Week 12, with a tough Thursday night matchup against the Niners.

Odell Beckham Jr (Ravens) OBJ is only owned in 43.8% of ESPN leagues and with what he has been flashing (116 yards receiving in Week 11) and paired with Lamar Jackson, his ceiling continues to rise. He should be another top waiver add this week.

Noah Brown (Texans) The Texans wideout remains available in more than half of all fantasy leagues (owned in 40.3% of ESPN leagues). Before his injury that kept him sidelined in Week 11, he posted back-to-back 150+ yards receiving games. He should be added.

More notables players to add in Week 12.

Tyson Chandler (Vikings) 49.6% owned. He has back-to-back weeks with 10+ carries totaling 118 yards rushing. He’s worth a flier as a potential flex option.

Josh Downs (Colts) 44.3% owned. Still out there in many leagues, Down’s volume has been down, but his ceiling still offers some flex appeal.

Romeo Doubs (Packers) 39.1% owned. Doubs has scored 10 or more fantasy points (ppr) in 4 of his last 5 games, including his 5 catch, 53-yard, and a score game on Sunday.

Tutu Atwell (Rams) 25.2% owned. With wide receiver Cooper Kupp hurt, Atwell could see an increase in volume. Atwell played the same number of snaps and Puka Nacua on Sunday.

Samaje Perine (Broncos) 25.1% owned. With 10 grabs in his last two games, he’s a low end flex option through the remaining Byes. 

Demario Douglas (Patriots) 24.5% owned. Highly available, Douglas is coming out of the Bye week with back-to-back games with 10 or more fantasy points (ppr). He’s nothing more than a low flex.

Jayden Reed (Packers) 18.7% owned. Reed is starting to see some steady volume (11 targets in his last two games) and with the short week and a full slate, he’s a risky flex option.

Khalil Shakir (Bills) 5.4% owned. In four of his last five games, Shakir has seen at least four targets and scored at least 15 fantasy points (ppr) twice. He’s part of a high scoring offense so he’s a high risk with great reward fringe flex in deeper leagues.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega 

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 2nd, 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

After a wild weekend with some big surprises, tonight’s matchup has all the makings of another Prime-Time spectacle with the Redskins traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs. It promises to be a raucous atmosphere tonight, as it typically is at Arrowhead Stadium; and Monday night will surely amplify the excitement.

My Takes

Quarterback Kirk Cousins; the Redskins signal caller finally got things going in week 3 against the Raiders. It was a strong showing and solid performance by Cousins that helped lead the Redskins. Tonight he’ll be away from the comfy confines of home and take his show on the road into hostile territory. The Chiefs defense has held up pretty tough this season versus opposing quarterbacks, but they can be had; in week 2 the Chiefs did allow the second most fantasy points (24.8) to opposing quarterbacks. Cousins played great last week and will try to bring the same momentum into tonight, but road games are always tough. I’d expect Cousins to hang in there, but a big game is likely not on the slate; more like 16-18 fantasy points would be in line.

Running backs Chris Thompson & Samaje Perine; the main production tonight will likely come from the more versatile back of the two, Chris Thompson. Samaje (if Rob Kelley is out) is going to see a lot of the 1st and 2nd down work, but Thompson will be sprinkled in all facets and see heavy use in the passing game. Samaje is likely to find little running room against the Chiefs No.7 ranked run defense, owners may want to sit him tonight. Thompson on the other hand has been on fire and while many may believe it’s time for the flames to fan, I like him in the flex tonight. Thompson should see about a half dozen carries or so and get work 7-9 targets in the pass game.

Wide receivers Josh Doctson, Terrelle Pryor, & Jamison Crowder; I’ll run through these real quick; still waiting on Terrelle Pryor to arrive in 2017 and not expecting to see much tonight against Marcus Peters. Crowder is questionable for tonight, but even if he plays while he is a safe play currently his ceiling seems limited; averaging just 6.0 targets the first three weeks. Cousins does spread the ball around pretty good, but the sleeper tonight to watch is wide receiver Josh Doctson. Last week he only had 2 targets, but did connect on a long shot for 52 yards. As time passes, we may see him get more involved.

Tight ends Jordan Reed & Vernon Davis; Always the risk it seems, the play at tight end here is Reed (if he’s healthy). Reed has been a non-factor the first three weeks playing in 2 games. His numbers are not what we expect from a TE1, hyped as he was in the preseason. He’ll be looking to get things going tonight against the Chiefs who struggle with the TE spot. If Reed is out, insert Davis who fared well in week 3 with 5 grabs for 58 yards and a score.

Quarterback Alex Smith; the Chiefs quarterback had a modest week 3 and with the Redskins coming to town, that’s about what I’d normally expect for tonight. You’re probably not starting Smith tonight in smaller redraft leagues, maybe two QB leagues only. The Chiefs will lean on the run and short passing game, but will ask Smith to take a few big shots downfield. Smith has been good this season going downfield more often, so don’t be surprised if totals a bunch of yards, to compliment a few scores.

Running back Kareem Hunt & Charcandrick West; the key for the Chiefs is in the ground game or at least with their ball carrier, Kareem Hunt. Whether they have success running the ball or not, they will work to get the ball in the hands of Hunt. So far through three weeks Hunt has been electric, he’s in line for another 18-22 touches tonight. He’s my No.1 fantasy RB this week. West is nothing more than a handcuff. As long as Hunt is healthy, West won’t see enough work to be fantasy relevant.

Wide receiver Tyreek Hill, Chris Conley, & Albert Wilson; Head Coach Andy Reid likes to mix things up so much, it’s really hard to gauge where his receivers are. About the only relevant receiver in the Chiefs passing game is Hill. Niether Wilson or Conley can be trusted, only Hill with 22 targets through the first 3 weeks is startable. Tonight’s going to be a tough matchup, but count on Reid to move Hill around and get him the ball in space; despite the matchup, he’s my No. 14 fantasy WR.

Tight end Travis Kelce; Last week Kelce was nearly shut out. Fantasy owners don’t panic, last week was just an anomaly. Reid and his staff will make sure Kelce is involved tonight; i’d expect a bounce back game against the Redskins defense that struggles against tight ends. Kelce is my No.2 fantasy TE this week.

Tonight matchup with the undefeated Chiefs (3-0) and the (2-1) Redskins has the appearance of a great matchup and could be a barn-burner as likely as anything else. Either way, we are in for a good one with plenty of scoring and lots of fantasy implications. Are you ready for some Monday Night Football!

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 23rd 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Who are you Starting & Sitting (Week 3)

Start or Sit

(Sunday’s Games)

Javorius Allen (start) Just like last week, Buck Allen is a start for Week 3 against the Jaguars. He may not do too much treading on the ground, but his pass catching skills will help his value this week. Allen is expected to pick up the load if running back Terrance West is limited or slowed.

Tyrod Taylor (sit) The Bills quarterback has an awful matchup this week facing the Broncos No Fly Zone defense. The Denver defense hasn’t been exactly seal tight, but they seen some pretty good skill position players at the receiver spot (like Dez Bryant and Keenan Allen), something Taylor is lacking. Sit the Bills quarterback.

Kelvin Benjamin (start) The Saints are in town and that means lots of yards all around. The Saints have allowed an avalanche of yards passing and rushing in their first two games. Time for Benjamin owners to reap the rewards of this matchup. Start the Panthers wide out.

Jordan Howard (sit) The Bears starting running back is off to a slow start this season and things may not get any better on Sunday. Howard will line up against the Steelers 8th ranked run defense that allow just 3.3 yards per tote. Sit him.

Ameer Abdullah (start) In what should be a matchup filled with a lot of points on both sides, I really like Abdullah to see a fair amount of carries and overall touches in this matchup. The Falcons allow 5.4 yards per carry, start Abdullah.

Jack Doyle (start) The Colts tight end is the No.13 fantasy TE currently. With a matchup against the Browns defense that’s allowed the most receptions and 3rd most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, expect Doyle to improve his ranking.

Jacquizz Rodgers (sit) The Vikings defense allows the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and overall they are ranked 11th against the run allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. I don’t like Rodgers in this matchup, sit him.

Mike Gillislee (start) The Patriots running back played more of a featured role last week with 18 carries and a score. The Texans will be tested in the air by quarterback Tom Brady and his bunch, which should open up a few running lanes for Gillislee. He’s sure to get one of those easy scores as well.

Jermaine Kearse (start) The Jets receiver has been busy through two weeks, ranked as the No.7 fantasy WR. Kearse has been targeted 14 times in two games and figures to see a steady diet of targets on Sunday against the Fins; a defense that’s allowed a 73% efficiency rate for opposing receivers.

Brandon Marshall (sit) The Giants number 3 receiver has been non-existent through two weeks and shouldn’t be trusted at this point. Marshall has caught just two passes and looks completely out of sync with quarterback Eli Manning right now. Sit him.

Derrick Henry (start) Let me start with, sit DeMarco Murray. The writing's on the wall for this one anyway. Even if Murray is active, he is likely to play second fiddle. Henry ran like a beast last week totaling 92 yards on the ground and he should get the Lionshare Sunday against the Seahawks 23rd ranked run defense that allows 5.2 yards per carry.

Jeremy Hill (sit) The team axed their Offensive Coordinator and head Coach Marvin Lewis has to be feeling the heat. Expect a lot of changes, including the usage of or lack of usage for running back Jeremy Hill. There are whispers this week we could see more of the rookie running back Joe Mixon. Hill’s a risky play, pass on him this week.

Hunter Henry (start) The Chargers tight end finally got some work in week 2 and turned in a nice stat line of 7/80/0. Henry caught all seven of his targets last week and could be just as busy Sunday against a Chiefs defense that’s allowed the 6th most receiving yards against opposing tight ends. Start Henry.

Samaje Perine (start) Starter Rob Kelley has been ruled out, so the rookie will get the nod. Start him. The Raiders are ranked 19th versus the run, allowing 4.8 yards per carry. Perine should get plenty of run in the backfield Sunday night.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 19th 2017

Tuesday Late Night Edition

The Weekly Waiver Wire

It’s never too soon to panic and never too early to make moves. For those fantasy owners looking to improve, shake things ups, or fill some holes in your rosters, here are this week’s waiver wire pickups for week 3;

QB-Trevor Siemian (QB2 worthy) The Broncos’ starter continued his excellent play in week 2. He now has 6 passing touchdowns for the season. He’s not QB1 ready yet, but we’ve seen enough to say he should be on rosters as a streaming and backup option for Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousin owners.

QB-Deshaun Watson (roster worthy) the rookie quarterback showed some Michale Vick moves on Thursday night and because of his legs and elusiveness his fantasy value is elevated. He’s not a fantasy starter, but definitely roster worthy in Dynasty leagues and two QB leagues. Owners will have to see how he progresses before playing him in redraft leagues or weekly DFS.

QB-Alex Smith (QB2 worthy) the Chiefs quarterback has been steady through two weeks (5 touchdowns) and surrounded with the playmakers he has in Kansas City, Smith has value as a QB2.

RB-Javorius “Buck” Allen (PPR value) the Ravens primary pass-catching back (5 receptions in week 2) has seen plenty of looks in the ground game with 35 carries through the first two weeks. He’s getting enough touches to be a streaming flex option, especially in PPR formats.

RB-Chris Thompson (PPR value) the Redskins ball carrier is the primary 3rd down back with 7 receptions on 12 targets thus far this season. His roles will likely remain unchanged this week if starter Rob Kelley is out, but he’s getting enough work to warrant a roster spot in PPR leagues.

RB-Samaje Perine (standard) the primary beneficiary if Kelley sits in week Three, is Perine. The Redskins as a team finally got the running game in gear this past Sunday (229 rushing yards) and Perine could continue

WR-JJ Nelson (flex option) the Cardinals receiver has scored in each of the team’s first two games and has been consistently involved in the team’s passing game. Nelson has been targeted 13 times in two games turning in a line of 10/163/2. He’s a weekly flex play.

WR-Allen Hurns (PPR value) the Jaguars receiver may have been dumped and/or overlooked in drafts due to the poor play of Bortles, but last Sunday he resurfaced. Hurns grabbed 6 balls for 82 yards receiving and touchdown on 7 targets. Hurns has value as a low-end flex in larger leagues.

WR-Rashard Higgins (PPR value) the Browns 2nd year receiver had a busy Sunday in week 2 snagging 7 passes on 11 targets. With wide receiver Kenny Britt’s poor start this season and wide receiver Corey Coleman heading for the injured reserve, Higgins looks like the favorite. His week 2 production would appear to make him serviceable as a low-end flex.

Keep on Your Watch List

WR-Brandon Coleman; the Saints receiver had a nice showing on Sunday, but it may be too quick to pull the trigger. Coleman is worth watching.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end had a pretty good second week (8 receptions, 79 yards) after a sub-par week 1 (just 2 catches for 41 yards). He’s one to watch closely, as his numbers could easily continue to trend upward, especially with the prospect of Andrew Luck returning under center at some point.

TE-Benjamin Watson; the Ravens tight end was solid on Sunday with 8 catches and 91 yards after seeing just one target and no catches in week one. Let’s wait see how this trends before making a move, there are still better options.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega