FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Night Edition
September 21st 2019

Week 3: Four Horsemen

The are my week 3 starters, I’m riding with;

QB-Kirk Cousins, Vikings: It’s been a bit of a rough start this season for the Vikings passer, 25th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. Cousins has just 328 yards passing (ranks 30th), 22 completions (ranks 32nd), and 3 turnovers in two games. The start has been brutal, but a Week 3 matchup at home against the Raiders could offer some cure. The Raiders have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 711 passing yards and 68% completions over the first two weeks.

RB-Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: This is an easy call for Week 3. The Cowboys have been rolling this season and much of their success has been without the impact of Elliott. Last week Zeke (RB12 through two weeks) saw 53 snaps and was effective on the ground with 111 yards rushing. His Week 3 matchup against the Dolphins (ranked 31st against the run) could see even greater success; Zeke looks poised for a big Sunday.

WR-Stefon Diggs, Vikings: If Kirk Cousins is going to bounce back in Week 3, he’s going to need targets to throw to on Sunday. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs and his quarterback have had a few near misses for huge gains; it’s just a matter of time. Diggs (WR71, PPR scoring) has been slow out of the gate, with just 11 targets through two games; this will change. The Raiders have allowed the 4th most fantasy points and 4th most receiving yards to opposing receivers; look for a breakout game from Diggs (and AdamThielen).

TE-Vance McDonald, Steelers: The Steelers are without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who exited week 2 with an elbow injury, ending his season. With Big Ben sidelined and backup Mason Rudolph under center, Vance McDonald (TE5, PPR scoring) was a busy target in Week 2. McDonald played 52 snaps and caught 7 passes on 7 targets for 38 yards receiving with two scores. Although his matchup this week is not the best, his connection with his quarterback appears solid and could to another big Sunday.

The 5th Musketeer

Flex play-(RB) Raheem Mostert, 49ers: The Niners running back currently ranks as the fantasy RB17, PPR scoring, and with the Steelers up next, he has a chance to continue his climb up the fantasy scoring ladder. Through two games the Steelers defense has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, as well as more than 100 yards rushing per game. Mostert has been a solid ball carrier this season with 123 rushing yards and a 5.6 yards per carry average; he should get plenty of run on Sunday.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Night Edition
September 20th 2019

Friday Fantasy Fixx

Week 3 JMO Notes:

After a tough matchup against the Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey in week 2, the Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins (currently WR15, PPR scoring according to Fantasy Data) is hoping to put his 5 (catches) for 40 (yards receiving) in the past. This week he’ll look to bounce back against a Chargers defense that has allowed a 79% completion success rate to wide receivers. Hopkins is too good to struggle for two weeks in a row, expect a bounce back game on Sunday.

The Viking running back Dalvin Cook (currently RB2, PPR scoring according to Fantasy Data) has been a fantasy stud through two games this season. Cook is averaging 23 touches and 311 yards of offense per game with three rushing touchdowns. With the Raiders coming to town on Sunday, fantasy owners can expect more of the same.

The Bengals defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, including the most rushing yards allowed to running backs (308 rushing yards) and tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs (3 rushing touchdowns). In two games, the Bills running back Frank Gore has found the fountain of youth, leading the club with 30 carries. This week he looks like he’s got a great chance to improve his 2.9 yards per carry average; start him.

Fantasy Five

Stud - The Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston played well last week on the road against the Panthers, in week 3 he gets home cooking against the Giants. In two games the Giants have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and over 325 yards passing yards per game. Just reading the tea leaves on this one, the Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd will take his shot against the Bills secondary that through two games has allowed the most receptions to opposing receivers. Through two games Boyd leads the team with 21 targets and 18 receptions and will pad those numbers on Sunday. An easy call here with the Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. Facing the Dolphins defense (ranked 31st against the run) this week, it should be all Zeke, all day.
Dud - The Chiefs will be without starting running back Damien Williams, but running back LeSean McCoy is a bit banged up and taking on the league’s number run defense. It could be a long or short day for Shady.
Boom - The Packers defense has been snake bit by running backs through two weeks, on the ground (6.0 yard per carry allowed-and in the air (18 receptions allowed-most allowed). This week, Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (13 targets this season), the team’s primary pass receiving back should see plenty of opportunities and could finally find the end zone. After a breakout week two, Niners running back Raheem Mostert could be making a case for himself to stay on the field, even after Tevin Coleman heals. Mostert currently ranks as RB17 in fantasy (PPR scoring) and his matchup against the Steelers (8th most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs) this week, could yield more success.
Bust - The Raiders tight end Darren Waller (TE8 in fantasy) will face a stout Vikings defense on the road this week; he could see his numbers cool on Sunday. The Redskins quarterback Case Keenum (QB6 in fantasy this season) has had a bit of a hot hand, but it could get cold fast on Monday night against the Bears' defense (7 sacks this season).
Sleeper - With no Tre’Quan Smith and no Drew Brees, the check down on Sunday could feature the Saints tight end Jared Cook who faces a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Bears running back Tarik Cohen was targeted 10 times in week one and 15 for the season. He could see more work in the slot against a leaky Redskins secondary on Monday night. The Broncos running back Royce Freeman (RB27) has been seeing enough work this season to be not only fantasy relevant, but flex worthy. He should get plenty of touches on Sunday against the Packers and could find pay dirt for the first time in 2019.


Recap Week 2
Stud - The Ravens Lamar Jackson (QB2) and Mark Andrews (TE1) came through with solid week 2 performances, but the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (WR54) was held in check, all PPR scoring.
Dud - The Rams tight ends finished Week 2 as TE23 and TE30, none worth starting or playing consideration. The Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery was basically a no-show exiting early in week 2 with an injury and a donut for a stat line. The Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay finished the week as RB26, not terrible especially considering the matchup against the Bears.
Boom - The Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley was WR8 in week 2, the Bills wideout John Brown was WR33 (flex play territory), and the Seahawks rookie receiver DK Metcalf was WR29 (flex play), again all PPR scoring.
Bust - The Bills veteran running back Frank Gore was an effective RB11 in week 2, while the Titans running back Dion Lewis (RB64) was just forgettable. 
Sleeper - the Niners running back Raheem Mostert was RB3 with a huge day, while the Steelers tight end Vance McDonald (TE3) was also big with a pair of scores. The Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (QB27) was awful last week.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Night Edition
September 20th, 2019

Week 3: On the Cover this Week

In Godwin we Trust

In pre-season fantasy drafts, the Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin was getting a lot of love from fantasy owners, coming off the boards as the WR15 according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Through the first two weeks of the 2019 NFL, Godwin has not disappointed with a touchdown grab in each of his first two games.

If you targeted Godwin early in drafts and were able to snag him as your second receiver, your investment is paying off early and could pay huge dividends later as well. Godwin is currently ranked as the number 13 fantasy receiver after two weeks (PPR scoring) with 11 receptions for 174 yards receiving and two touchdowns.

Last season Godwin and quarterback Jameis Winston found a groove over the last two weeks of the 2018 season; a small sample size yes, but something to build off. There was a lot of buzz in the preseason and it appears, good things for Godwin could be just around the corner.

Through the first two weeks of the 2019 season, Godwin currently leads the team with 15 targets, he also leads the Bucs in receptions, yards receiving, and receiving touchdowns. Next on tap for Godwin and the Buccaneers are the Giants of New York who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Giants secondary has also surrendered 550 yards receiving to wideouts, most in the league. 

With this savory matchup next on the slate, Godwin looks to be a solid fantasy bet to keep trending upward.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Late Night Edition
September 18th, 2019

Wednesday Watercooler Chat

It’s Wednesday and time to gather round the old watercooler to talk some fantasy football. No worries if you don’t have a watercooler, the breakroom snack machine or out back for a quick smoke are just as appropriate.

It’s still a small sample size, but after two weeks there are a few trends we are seeing that are unavoidable, like the arrival of Lamar, and even compelling to watch, like the greatness of Mahomes, and in some cases believe, Dalvin Cook leads the NFL in rushing. 

Here’s a list of some quick takes you can buy, sell, take to the bank, or throw away (it’s all good);

Quick Takes:

• I am a believer in Lamar Jackson and sold on his fantasy prowess.
• Patrick Mahomes is a magician in or out of the pocket and “It’s Showtime!”
• Dalvin Cook is the real deal and Top 5 fantasy play for 2019, JMO.
• Is Mark Andrew better than Kelce; IDK, but I’ll take him!
• Odell Beckham Jr who? 89 yards later, that’s who!
• Carlos Hyde is no Jekyll, but apparently he can run!
• Has Aaron Jones been freed, because he ran free on Sunday.
• The yards are not coming easy, but Lev Bell is still getting the work.
• After his week 2 bounce back, in Godwin I am trusting.

It’s two weeks in the books and these are a couple of my FF notes to share; 

2 Studs Rising
Ravens, WR-Marquise Brown; Hollywood Brown is no secret by now and in week two the Cardinals defense learned his name up close and persona. Brown dropped 8 catches for 86 yards on 13 targets. If he continues to see this type of usage, he’s going to have some big Sundays!

Buccaneers, WR-Chris Godwin; after posting a modest week 1 performance that did include a score, Godwin followed up with a huge Week 2 showing. On Thursday night Godwin lit up the Panthers with 8 catches for 121 yards receiving and a score. With the Giants defense next up, it could be more of the same for fantasy owner.

2 Duds falling fast
Titans, WR-Corey Davis; through two weeks the Titans wideout has been missing in action. Through two games, PPR scoring, Davis currently ranks as the 94th fantasy receiver, according to Fantasy Data.

Colts, RB-Nyheim Hines; with the return of the Mack in Indy, Hines has become a forgotten name in fantasy. In two games Hines has only seen 31 snaps (unofficial) to Marlon Macks 97. Hines currently ranks as the 60th fantasy running back through two weeks.

2 Weekly Waiver Wire picks
Chiefs, WR-Demarcus Robinson; if you are watching what’s happening in Kansas City thus far this season, you just want a piece and any piece of this offense. Coming off a huge week 2 performance, 6 catches for 172 yards receiving and two scores on six targets, Robinson looks to be a nice waiver wire pick-up for week 3 (if available).

49ers, RB-Raheem Mostert; the Niners running back is another nice waiver wire grab, if available. Last season he got a little run in Frisco and looked pretty good. With Tevin Coleman shelved for a bit, Mostert is getting some run again and looks good. His week two strong showing, 83 rushing yards, 68 receiving yards and a score has him currently ranked as the 16th fantasy running back (PPR scoring), according to Fantasy Data.

2 Players to Watch (sleepers)
Broncos, RB-Royce Freeman; the Broncos are currently employing a full-time 50/50 share with Freeman and Lindsay and thus far, Freeman has been the more productive. While I expect Lindsay’s numbers to improve as the Broncos offense gets better, I don’t see Freeman’s usage suffering. He’s worth stashing and rostering in all formats.

Chiefs, RB-Darwin Thompson; with the Chiefs high octane offense firing on all pistons, the current backfield situation could open the door for opportunity for the rookie running back. Again, you want any piece of this offense that you can get, but Thompson could soon become a focal point in the run game and become a must-start.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday morning Edition
September 15th, 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

Week 2 Matchups

The Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson, threw 5 touchdowns in week 1. This week he is facing a Giants pass defense that allowed 4 passing touchdowns and 7 plays of 20+ yards (tied for most in the league) with zero sacks and ranks last in the NFL. I’m starting Lamar, especially in DFS.

The Seahawks signal caller, Russell Wilson is on the road this week against a Steelers pass defense that allowed 366 net yards of passing, recording just one sack while giving up three passing touchdowns and 7 plays of 20+ yards (tied for most allowed in the NFL). Start Wilson.

Kerryon Johnson played 50 snaps in Week one and recorded 18 touches totaling 62 yards of offense. In week 2 the Lions running back will get plenty of run against a Chargers run defense that currently ranks 31st in the league, allowing over 200 yards on the ground in week 1. Kerryon should be in lineups today.

A week 2 matchup against a Colts defense that allowed 100 yards receiving and two touchdowns to opposing running backs, could be good news for the Titans Dion Lewis. He could be in the flex conversation today, but proceed with caution. I am probably sitting Lewis; need to see more production.

The Bills receiver John Brown could be looking at another solid fantasy week facing a Giants secondary that allows the most fantasy points to opposing receivers. In week one, the Giants allowed 18 receptions off 22 targets for 341 yards. I have Brown in my lineups as a flex.

Week 2 could be a bounce back week for the Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. This Sunday he gets a Seahawks secondary that surrendered 6 pass plays of 20+ yards and 276 yards to opposing receivers in week 1. Start Juju, he gets back on track in Week 2.

The Redskins tight end Vernon Davis, could follow up his strong week 1 performance with another solid outing in week 2 against the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in week 1, including 12 receptions for 124 yards receiving. Davis is a streaming option for me this week.

A sleeper play that the fantasy world is quickly waking up to, is the Raiders tight end Darren Waller. Playing on Monday, Waller was able to showcase some of his upside and in week 2, a showdown with the Chiefs could continue the trend. The Chiefs defense held the Jaguars tight ends in check in week 1, but did allow 8 receptions on 9 targets. Waller is a great DFS play and viable option in Season-long leagues.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega