FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Night Edition
September 20th 2019

Friday Fantasy Fixx

Week 3 JMO Notes:

After a tough matchup against the Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey in week 2, the Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins (currently WR15, PPR scoring according to Fantasy Data) is hoping to put his 5 (catches) for 40 (yards receiving) in the past. This week he’ll look to bounce back against a Chargers defense that has allowed a 79% completion success rate to wide receivers. Hopkins is too good to struggle for two weeks in a row, expect a bounce back game on Sunday.

The Viking running back Dalvin Cook (currently RB2, PPR scoring according to Fantasy Data) has been a fantasy stud through two games this season. Cook is averaging 23 touches and 311 yards of offense per game with three rushing touchdowns. With the Raiders coming to town on Sunday, fantasy owners can expect more of the same.

The Bengals defense has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, including the most rushing yards allowed to running backs (308 rushing yards) and tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs (3 rushing touchdowns). In two games, the Bills running back Frank Gore has found the fountain of youth, leading the club with 30 carries. This week he looks like he’s got a great chance to improve his 2.9 yards per carry average; start him.

Fantasy Five

Stud - The Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston played well last week on the road against the Panthers, in week 3 he gets home cooking against the Giants. In two games the Giants have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and over 325 yards passing yards per game. Just reading the tea leaves on this one, the Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd will take his shot against the Bills secondary that through two games has allowed the most receptions to opposing receivers. Through two games Boyd leads the team with 21 targets and 18 receptions and will pad those numbers on Sunday. An easy call here with the Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott. Facing the Dolphins defense (ranked 31st against the run) this week, it should be all Zeke, all day.
Dud - The Chiefs will be without starting running back Damien Williams, but running back LeSean McCoy is a bit banged up and taking on the league’s number run defense. It could be a long or short day for Shady.
Boom - The Packers defense has been snake bit by running backs through two weeks, on the ground (6.0 yard per carry allowed-and in the air (18 receptions allowed-most allowed). This week, Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (13 targets this season), the team’s primary pass receiving back should see plenty of opportunities and could finally find the end zone. After a breakout week two, Niners running back Raheem Mostert could be making a case for himself to stay on the field, even after Tevin Coleman heals. Mostert currently ranks as RB17 in fantasy (PPR scoring) and his matchup against the Steelers (8th most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs) this week, could yield more success.
Bust - The Raiders tight end Darren Waller (TE8 in fantasy) will face a stout Vikings defense on the road this week; he could see his numbers cool on Sunday. The Redskins quarterback Case Keenum (QB6 in fantasy this season) has had a bit of a hot hand, but it could get cold fast on Monday night against the Bears' defense (7 sacks this season).
Sleeper - With no Tre’Quan Smith and no Drew Brees, the check down on Sunday could feature the Saints tight end Jared Cook who faces a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. The Bears running back Tarik Cohen was targeted 10 times in week one and 15 for the season. He could see more work in the slot against a leaky Redskins secondary on Monday night. The Broncos running back Royce Freeman (RB27) has been seeing enough work this season to be not only fantasy relevant, but flex worthy. He should get plenty of touches on Sunday against the Packers and could find pay dirt for the first time in 2019.


Recap Week 2
Stud - The Ravens Lamar Jackson (QB2) and Mark Andrews (TE1) came through with solid week 2 performances, but the Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (WR54) was held in check, all PPR scoring.
Dud - The Rams tight ends finished Week 2 as TE23 and TE30, none worth starting or playing consideration. The Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery was basically a no-show exiting early in week 2 with an injury and a donut for a stat line. The Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay finished the week as RB26, not terrible especially considering the matchup against the Bears.
Boom - The Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley was WR8 in week 2, the Bills wideout John Brown was WR33 (flex play territory), and the Seahawks rookie receiver DK Metcalf was WR29 (flex play), again all PPR scoring.
Bust - The Bills veteran running back Frank Gore was an effective RB11 in week 2, while the Titans running back Dion Lewis (RB64) was just forgettable. 
Sleeper - the Niners running back Raheem Mostert was RB3 with a huge day, while the Steelers tight end Vance McDonald (TE3) was also big with a pair of scores. The Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (QB27) was awful last week.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
September 14th, 2019

Week 2 Four Horsemen

Falcons, QB-Matt Ryan: Week one is history and in the books. After a slow start in the first half against the Vikings, Ryan managed to salvage his fantasy opener throwing for 304 yards with two scores and two picks. This week he’s home and will get to take his shots at an Eagles secondary that allowed 370 yards (ranked 28th in the League) to Case Keenum and the Redskins. With his plethora of aerial weapons, Ryan should enjoy similar success in the Sunday night showdown. While the Falcons would like to get their running game out of first gear in this matchup, I would still look for Matty-Ice to put the rock up in the air 35-plus times in this one. My prediction; 26 of 35 passing, 310 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Chiefs, RB-LeSean McCoy: I am buying into the narrative that Shady’s back, back again. McCoy reunites with his old coach Andy Reid who is the commander and chief of one of the most explosive offenses in the league today. While his week one return was hardly memorable for fantasy owners, it’s definitely worth noting his effectiveness and production. McCoy finished week one with 11 touches and 93 total yards of offense; that’s a ridiculous 8.5 yards per touch average. That kind of efficiency may be a little inflated, but as his usage increases, so will his production. As good as McCoy looked in week one, it’s hard to imagine not seeing his role grow with each week. The Raiders did a fair job in week one slowing down the Broncos run game (only 95 yards allowed, ranks 13th in the League), but this offense is a juggernaut and should create plenty of running lanes for Shady. My Prediction; 14 carries, 88 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 26 yards receiving, one score (rushing).

Texans, WR-DeAndre Hopkins: On any given Sunday, the Texans wideout is a stud, but this happens to be a match up that garners a little more attention. This week Hopkins, coming off a solid week one performance will be matched up against one of the leagues’ best corners, the Jaguars Jalen Ramsey. Normally a Ramsey matchup is bad news for the opposing receiver, but in the case of Hopkins such may not be true. In the past six meetings, since Ramsey has become a starter in Jacksonville, Hopkins worst performance came in their first meeting; 5 catches for 48 yards. Since that meeting, Hopkins has seen no fewer than 8 targets and averaged 6.5 receptions, 14 targets, and 83.4 yards, with touchdowns in 3 of their last 4 contests. Hopkins has generally been successful, but his skills and connections have just gotten better with each season playing with quarterback DeShaun Watson. My prediction; 8 catches, 94 yards, one touchdown, on 11 targets.

Chiefs, TE-Travis Kelce; I’m rolling with another favorite in Week two and not hard to figure out why. The Chiefs offense is clearly from another planet and even with the loss of wide receiver Tyreek Hill, it’s hard to imagine this scoring machine slowing down. With the absence of Hill, this should open up a few more targets for Kelce who saw eight in week one. Kelce was far from efficient in the opener, only snagging three of his opportunities, but he did turn those into 88 yards receiving. I’d expect the Chiefs tight end to once again see anywhere from 8-10 targets against the Raiders with a far better outcome of completions and production. My prediction; 7 receptions, 79 yards, one touchdown, on 10 targets

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega