FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

September 15th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Morning Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 2)

(Favorable Matchups)

After one week of data it doesn’t get any easier for fantasy owners to decide who to start and who to sit, but the information does help. So let’s take a look at the week 2 matchups and set our lineups for Sunday.

QB-Jared Goff (Lions) - Coming off a week 1 win over the defending champion Chiefs, Lions quarterback Jared Goff will be playing with a lot of confidence in this week 2 matchup. Goff and company will square off against a Seahawks defense that allowed 334 yards passing (3rd most) in week one. This could be a big afternoon for Goff.

RB-Bijan Robinson (Falcons) - Considering his usage in the passing game in week one, this Sunday against the Packers could be a big afternoon for the Rookie. Robinson was targeted six times in week one and will face a Packers defense that allowed 11 receptions (2nd most) last week. The Falcons rookie should have another productive Sunday.

WR-DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) - Just playing the numbers with this call. Last week Hopkins was heavily targeted and no reason it should not continue. This Sunday the Titans will face a Chargers secondary that surrendered the most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. Fantasy owners can expect Hopkins to turn in another busy Sunday.

WR-Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) - After a quiet week one, this sets up to be a great bounce back game for Chase and the Bengals offense. In two games versus the Ravens last season Chase was targeted 25 times, so the elite wideout can be expected to be heavily involved in the passing game this week.

TE-Evan Engram (Jaguars) - The Jags tight end was a bit quiet in week one, but still finished as the No.5 fantasy tight end with 5 catches for 49 yards. This week Engram will take his shot at the Chiefs defense that surrendered 7 catches (tied for 3rd most) last week to the opposing tight end. Last postseason, the Chiefs were able to limit Engram to 31 yards receiving, but that was the pre-Ridley era. Results this Sunday should be very different.

These are not necessarily considered week 2 start’ems, as some are of course already locked in your lineups as they should be. These are rather my predictions or feelings about their respective week 2 matchups and outcomes this weekend. 

These are my week 2 favorites with some great matchups.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
September 14th, 2019

Week 2 Four Horsemen

Falcons, QB-Matt Ryan: Week one is history and in the books. After a slow start in the first half against the Vikings, Ryan managed to salvage his fantasy opener throwing for 304 yards with two scores and two picks. This week he’s home and will get to take his shots at an Eagles secondary that allowed 370 yards (ranked 28th in the League) to Case Keenum and the Redskins. With his plethora of aerial weapons, Ryan should enjoy similar success in the Sunday night showdown. While the Falcons would like to get their running game out of first gear in this matchup, I would still look for Matty-Ice to put the rock up in the air 35-plus times in this one. My prediction; 26 of 35 passing, 310 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

Chiefs, RB-LeSean McCoy: I am buying into the narrative that Shady’s back, back again. McCoy reunites with his old coach Andy Reid who is the commander and chief of one of the most explosive offenses in the league today. While his week one return was hardly memorable for fantasy owners, it’s definitely worth noting his effectiveness and production. McCoy finished week one with 11 touches and 93 total yards of offense; that’s a ridiculous 8.5 yards per touch average. That kind of efficiency may be a little inflated, but as his usage increases, so will his production. As good as McCoy looked in week one, it’s hard to imagine not seeing his role grow with each week. The Raiders did a fair job in week one slowing down the Broncos run game (only 95 yards allowed, ranks 13th in the League), but this offense is a juggernaut and should create plenty of running lanes for Shady. My Prediction; 14 carries, 88 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 26 yards receiving, one score (rushing).

Texans, WR-DeAndre Hopkins: On any given Sunday, the Texans wideout is a stud, but this happens to be a match up that garners a little more attention. This week Hopkins, coming off a solid week one performance will be matched up against one of the leagues’ best corners, the Jaguars Jalen Ramsey. Normally a Ramsey matchup is bad news for the opposing receiver, but in the case of Hopkins such may not be true. In the past six meetings, since Ramsey has become a starter in Jacksonville, Hopkins worst performance came in their first meeting; 5 catches for 48 yards. Since that meeting, Hopkins has seen no fewer than 8 targets and averaged 6.5 receptions, 14 targets, and 83.4 yards, with touchdowns in 3 of their last 4 contests. Hopkins has generally been successful, but his skills and connections have just gotten better with each season playing with quarterback DeShaun Watson. My prediction; 8 catches, 94 yards, one touchdown, on 11 targets.

Chiefs, TE-Travis Kelce; I’m rolling with another favorite in Week two and not hard to figure out why. The Chiefs offense is clearly from another planet and even with the loss of wide receiver Tyreek Hill, it’s hard to imagine this scoring machine slowing down. With the absence of Hill, this should open up a few more targets for Kelce who saw eight in week one. Kelce was far from efficient in the opener, only snagging three of his opportunities, but he did turn those into 88 yards receiving. I’d expect the Chiefs tight end to once again see anywhere from 8-10 targets against the Raiders with a far better outcome of completions and production. My prediction; 7 receptions, 79 yards, one touchdown, on 10 targets

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 13th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Week 6: Four Horsemen + Flex

(Not-so-bold Predictions)

Here were my picks a week ago; I had Carson Palmer under center, his 15.64 fantasy points ranked 12th for week 5. At running back I picked Le'Veon Bell, his 19.30 fantasy points ranked 5th among running backs, at receiver I selected Pierre Garcon with 17.40 fantasy points he ranked 13th at WR, and at tight end I had Hunter Henry with 13.20 fantasy points (ranked 12th in Week 5). My flex selection was Duke Johnson who scored 17.30, good enough for 7th among RBs and finally my defense for week 5 was the Bengals, 9 fantasy points (ranked 8th). Overall not too bad; 

Overall grade B+

Here are my Bold Picks for Week 6

Quarterback

The Cardinals will play host to Tampa Bay this week and for quarterback Carson Palmer, he gets the league’s 26th ranked pass defense. The Bucs allow the 5th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and Palmer enters this week 6 matchup with a healthier receiving corp. With a prime matchup this Sunday, Palmer currently the No.12 fantasy QB will look to move up the ranks; 24 of 32 passing for 330 yards and three touchdowns.

Running Back

After a slow Week 5 against the Seahawks, the Rams running back Todd Gurley II looks to rebound with a favorable matchup against the Jaguars. Gurley has been solid this season running the ball and a heavily inolved in the Rams short passing game with 22 receptions and 3 receiving touchdowns. Jacksonville allows the 7th most fantasy points to opposing runners and they've surrendered the 3rd most rushing yards. Gurley is in line for a big day; 95 rushing yards, 4 receptions for 35 yards and a touchdown.

Wide Receiver

The Redskins wide receiver Terrelle Pryor is off to a slow start this season, but he could be on the mend. In week 4 Pryor looked much better getting targeted 5 times and grabbing three balls for 70 yards. He's got a nice matchup against a Niners defense that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the 4th most receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Pryor should be strong play and a great candidate to find the endzone; 5 receptions, 80 yards receiving, and a touchdown.

Tight End

The Jets roll into Foxboro on Sunday and for tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, this could mean a big day. The Patriots allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have allowed 4 touchdowns this season. Seferian-Jenkins has remained steadily involved in the Jets passing game with 15 receptions in 3 games and he's coming off his best fantasy scoring game from a week ago; 5 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown.

Flex

If you are paying attention, then you may be aware of the news that the Cardinals wide receiver John Brown was not listed on the team's injury report. Brown put in a full session on Friday and appears to be his healthiest of the season, just in time for a prime matchup with the Buccaneers on Sunday. The Bucs defense allows the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, so this could be the game where Brown breaks out; 5 receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown.

Defense; I am going with the rested Falcons at home. Atlanta typically plays better in the dome and with the Dolphins coming to town, this sets up as a good matchup for the Falcons defense.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 18th 2017

Monday Late Night Edition

On The Cover This Week

The Ice-Man Cometh

After last year’s monumental meltdown in the Super Bowl, Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons are poised to make a repeat run back to the dance. After two weeks of this young 2017 season, Ryan and company once again look like serious contenders, especially after easily disposing of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night.

The Packers are one of the few teams in the NFC expected to contend with Atlanta for the NFC title this season, so what we saw Sunday night could very well have been a preview of the coming NFC Championship.

Matty Ice has transformed the Falcons into a perennial powerhouse and with a 2-0 this season, he and the Falcons appear back on track to make anothe run.

Ryan is off to a bit of a slow start, but his 2016 MVP standard. Through two weeks he’s only thrown two touchdowns, but he has passed for 573 yards (286.5 yards per game) while completing nearly 70 percent of his throws.

Ryan and the Falcons are just getting warmed up. By the time this season really gets rolling, the NFL and fantasy owners will know that the Ice-Man has cometh.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 26th 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

The Fantasy Draft Room

Recap

It’s still relatively early for the fantasy draft season, but no question it is in high gear now. I’ve managed to complete several myself and following along with several others. I’ve also been on the internet quite a bit lately checking many websites for the current ADP of many players.

With your draft season kicking into high gear, I am just running through and recapping some recent picks made in my drafts that I have taken note.

Let’s start at the top with Buccaneers Mike Evans. I am hearing a lot of good things about Evans and I am on the bandwagon for another big season. Last year Evans finished as the No.3 fantasy receiver with a stat line of 96-1321-12, and going off the draft boards as the No. 4 receiver big things are expected again this season. Fantasy owners will have to target him early.

Last season was unquestionably Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan’s best season of his career with a 70.0 completion percentage, 4,944 yards passing, and 38 touchdowns. He’ll have a lot of the same pieces in place for the 2017 season, so an encore performance to his 2016 campaign looks likely. He’s clearly the number 4 quarterback going off draft boards around the 5th round, a full round in front of the 5th QB, (according to FFC ADP). Fantasy owners are drinking the Cool-aid; another big season for Matty Ice. He’s a great target to start those middle rounds, after you filled your backfield and/or slotted your wideouts.

Moving right along Terrelle Pryor, coming off a nice 2016 showing in Cleveland (77 receptions, 1,007 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns) the Redskins newest big target in their passing game is being drafted as a solid WR2. Last season Pryor finished as the No. 19 fantasy receiver in scoring, in a better system this year with Kirk Cousin chucking the rock in his direction Pryor should easily match and exceed his numbers from a year ago.I see him more as a low WR2, but will just as happy taking him a little early as my WR2; being drafted around the middle of the third round in 12 team leagues.

One play I am not completely enthused about is the Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch. After taking a year off it make take Lynch a few games to find Beast Mode and his current ADP (late second round) is too rich for my blood. I don’t necessarily think Lynch will be a bust, just not ready to sell the farm with a 2nd round pick. His value is more in line for me a couple of rounds later, 4th round or early 5th.

Right now one of the hottest fantasy stocks on the rise has to be Vikings rookie running back Dalvin Cook. A lot of positive reports suggesting Cook could be a three-down back and with Latavius Murray missing as much time as he has, the rookie has been able to showcase his talents. It’s early and only preseason, but an early 3rd round grab (current ADP 3.04 according to FFC) sits well with me. Cook is a fantasy running back I’d like to own this season.

Another hot fantasy stock is the Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey. The rookie out of Stanford arrived with on the hype train this summer and so far he’s making believers everywhere. McCaffrey figures to be a change of pace ball-carrier in Carolina, but heavily involved in the pass game; can you say PPR stud. His current ADP puts him in the 3rd round and someone fantasy owners will target as a preferred RB2, especially in PPR formats.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBBOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

January 27th, 2017
Friday Night Late Edition

Friday Fantasy Fixx

There are no games this weekend, but that doesn’t mean we can’t talk some fantasy football on a Friday night and look ahead to the Super Bowl.

This is not the match up I was expecting, although I am not surprised; both teams are well deserving. I think last week, quarterbacks Matt Ryan and Tom Brady just rose above and out-played the competition to get here.

Now there are no games this weekend to discuss, so I won’t give opinion on plays or matchup just yet. The good news for us football fans, heading into next weekend, both teams should be as healthy as they have ever been this season; a lot of fantasy play options available.

Without going into too much detail, my overall impression of this matchup is going to be one high scoring affair. I’m not aware of the current over/under, but I would confidently put it at 61.5 points. There’s no way both teams are not scoring at least 4 touchdowns each, if not more.

I will give credit to both defenses, they are stock with good players and they will make plays, but both offenses are just loaded with too many playmakers and too many big plays.

The last time I saw a matchup of similar proportion was the Super Bowl 13-Steelers and Cowboys. Both teams were loaded with talent, playmakers, and greatness. I’m pretty sure we have that covered in this one with names like Tom Terrific, Matty Ice, Julio, and 7-11.

If you watch this one, and if you enjoy fantasy this is one you will not want to miss, my boldest prediction is; points, points, and more points.

Good luck to the Falcons and Patriots and can’t wait until next Sunday!

That’s my Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID DAILY DIGEST

January 14th, 2017
Saturday morning Edition

Fantasy Five for Saturday

Back in Week 6 the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan ($8,300 DFS salary) torched the Seahawks secondary completing 27 of 42 passes for 335 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan has been brilliant throughout his 2016 campaign, passing for nearly 5,000 yards and tossing 38 touchdowns (2nd in the league). Despite the success the Seahawks defense has had against opposing quarterbacks, I believe Ryan is in for another big day on Saturday against the Seahawks.

Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones ($8,300 DFS salary)  is just a beast and in the earlier matchup this season with the Seahawks he just did his thing; 7 receptions, 139 yards, and a touchdown. The Seahawks will definitely focus on trying to stop Jones, but Falcons will have OC Kyle Shanahan on the case and ready to show the NFL teams that passed on him why they made a mistake. Expect the Falcons to move Jones around and make a concerted effort to get the ball in his hands; no fewer than 10 targets for the receiving monster today, plenty of opportunities to post safe numbers.

With the Falcons offense rolling on Saturday, my expectation is this game will take on the shape of a good old fashioned shootout. I am sure the Hawks would prefer to stay with the ground game, but with quarterback Russell Wilson ($8,200 DFS salary) under center, they won’t shy from taking it to the air. Wilson has the ability to rise and play big and that’s what I would expect from the former Badger out of Wisconsin.

The Texans-Patriots matchup has the feel of a defensive battle, rather than shootout. The Patriots are always tough at home, the Texans offense is questionable on the road in this one, and the Texans defense is one of the best in the league. I am not expecting many fireworks in this one, but I do like Patriots running back Dion Lewis ($5,400 DFS salary) to heavily involved, especially in the passing game. Lewis averaged better than 16 touches per game over the last three weeks of the season. I would expect similar numbers in this one, but look for more involvement in the short passing game from Lewis.

As I speculate, the Texans-Patriots matchup will be more about the defense and one key factor will be place-kicker Stephen Gostkowski ($4,800 DSF salary). Playing at home the Patriots defense will put a lot of pressure on quarterback Brock Osweiler and the Texans offense. Turnovers and short fields could dictate this one and Gostkowski will play big.

These are DFS plays I am leaning with today.

That’s my Take

~David G. Ortega

FINDING THIS YEAR'S VALUE

September 6th 2015
Sunday

FINDING THIS YEAR'S VALUE

For the most part drafting value is to each his own. You won't know the result of that play until many weeks into your fantasy season. but if you do your due diligence, keep up with the injury updates, follow the reports coming out of training camps, and pay attention to "Sportscenter" or "NFL Access" you will have at least a small inclination as to what is happening.

And even though "Numbers Never Lie" isn't exactly an exact science, it is however a pretty strong indicator and trustworthy guideline to follow when it comes to finding the fantasy value you are looking for in the later rounds of your fantasy drafts.

Having just completed my third fantasy draft, let me offer some opinion and thoughts on a couple of later rounders with value.

The first name is one that was not even drafted; wide receiver James Jones. The ex-Packer wideout was just released by the Giants (part of their cut-downs to 53). Now a free agent, his ex-employer could come calling to add needed depth to their receiving squad. Jones played 7 seasons with the Pack averaging nearly 53 receptions and 730 yards receiving scoring 29 touchdowns in his last 4 campaigns in Green Bay. Jones also finished with a career high 73 receptions in 2014 in Oakland. His numbers don't jump off the board, but in Green Bay he could be a late round flyer with upside as a reliable WR3 or flex play in most formats.

For the past three seasons Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown more than 615 passes in each of those seasons; that's a lot of balls to go around. With wide receiver Julio Jones drawing most of the defenses attention and a banged up Roddy White, the Falcons number three receiver spot could have a lot of fantasy "sex" appeal. In 2013 Harry Douglas ran with that role and flourished when Julio missed much of the season. This season's Harry D, could be wideout Leonard Hankerson. Hank spent four seasons in the turbulent Redskins camp and is coming of ACL surgery from a year ago. Hank has never had a  quarterback like Ryan and could benefit greatly in the Falcons pass system. We won't get carried away and try to stretch Hankerson out to more than what he really is; another late round flyer that could pay some nice dividends as a strong flex or low WR3 in deeper 12 and 14 team leagues.

The reports are already saying that Rams rookie running back Todd Gurley is out for week one and that he's not likely to see substantial work on the field until after the team's week 6 bye. In my most recent draft second year running back Tre Mason did not come off the board until round 13. Mason is not exactly tiny at 5'8", he weighs in at 207 pounds. With lightening speed and great agility, he is expected to anchor the Rams run game in the early going this season. Gurley may work his way into the rotation, but Mason is not going anywhere. Falling this late in the draft, Mason can offer value as a strong flex play or even a low end RB2 in deeper formats for the first quarter of the season. And there's no guarantee that Gurley will set the world on fire when he gets on the field; Mason's value could sustain deep into the 2015 season.

This is just my take; three names coming off the boards late that I like.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Friday Edition
October 12th, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 6 Fantasy Picks (all positions)

Now that we have reached the bye weeks with another four teams on the sideline Week 6 presents some interesting and favorable matchups for fantasy owners and once again the trick will be sorting through the smoke and mirrors to find those weekly gems…..

Kevin Kolb, QB
The Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb has not been a fantasy starlet this season, but he has not been all bad either. In four starts this season Kolb has 6 touchdowns with only two interceptions while averaging 244 yards passing per game; not exactly big numbers but steady. This week the Cards will play host to the Buffalo Bills and Kolb should have plenty of opportunity for big numbers against the league’s 24th ranked pass defense.

Darren McFadden, RB
There’s little reason to think that the Raiders will suddenly change their way of thinking, but if they believe in numbers as we do then we should see quite a bit of running back Darren McFadden on Sunday. The Raiders travel to Atlanta this week and will line up against the league’s 28th ranked run defense. The Falcons are allowing not only 142 yards per game, but over 5 yards per carry; the best recipe for a big fantasy Sunday for an elite running back. If McFadden is going to be elite, this would be the time to make a statement.

Andy Dalton, QB
The Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton has been quote the past couple of weeks, but he and the Bengals offense should catch a break this weekend when they meet the Browns this weekend in Cleveland. The Browns 25th ranked secondary has been lit up for 12 touchdowns this season and over 280 yards in the air per game; an inviting week 6 matchup for Dalton and the Bengals.

Roddy White, WR
It seems every week there is a flavor of the week in the Falcons passing attack. When the Raiders come to town on Sunday, this will be good news for wide receiver Roddy White and the Falcons aerial attack. The Raiders pass defense is ranked 27th in the league surrendering 283 yards per game and their secondary has yet to record an interception in 2012. White is always a favorite in the pass game and figures to do some damage this week.

Demaryrius Thomas, WR
The Broncos young wide out is quickly becoming a fantasy household name and he could become even bigger, if he can just hang on to the ball. Despite his three fumbles this season, Thomas is still a fantasy favorite with 505 receiving yards (3rd in the league) and 30 receptions this season with two scores. On Monday night he will face the Chargers pass defense that has allowed 11 touchdowns this season and 4 pass plays of 40 yards or more; it could be a big night for Thomas.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

March 13th, 2011 Sunday

David’s Daily Digest

2011 Fantasy Football Players

As we start looking toward the upcoming 2011 season (with fingers crossed), it’s hard to imagine any new surprises for fantasy owners at the quarterback spot. We all saw quite evident the growth and progression of Michael Vick in the pocket, the arrival of Aaron Rodgers as one of the games’ best, and the several young arms that continue to make strides with their progression.

2011 should present a host of options for owners to choose from at the quarterback spot. A couple of names that come to mind that could offer plenty of return investment on their draft selection include quarterback Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

After solid fantasy showings in 2010 Ryan and Fitzpatrick are two less-than-marquee names that could surprise folks with strong follow-up performances in 2011…..

Fantasy Quarterback…..

Matt Ryan (Falcons)

The Falcons young quarterback Matt Ryan has continually improved since his arrival into the league in 2008 and for fantasy owners his progression has been a huge reward. Ryan finished the 2010 season with over 3,700 yards passing and 28 touchdowns; he was fantasy’s number eight scoring quarterback (traditional scoring).

Matty “Ice” was particularly strong at home this past season throwing 15 touchdowns and just three picks finishing with a 7-1 record. Ryan was also very consistent passing for more than 200 yards with multiple touchdowns in eight games; he also had nine total games with multiple touchdowns including four games with three touchdowns. With one of the leagues’ premiere wide receivers (Roddy White) to throw to and a talented young receiving corp Ryan should have little trouble duplicating his numbers.

After his big 2010 season, Ryan has shown the growth and maturity of a big-time clutch passer and his number eight finish in fantasy (among quarterbacks) will make him a mid-draft fantasy selection favorite. Ryan should easily be a top ten fantasy quarterback in 2011, but he’s not going to go early among the quarterbacks; the later you can grab him will offer the best value.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bills)

The Bills quarterback had quietly what could be considered a breakout season. Before the 2010 season Fitzpatrick had hardly made a name for himself with two seasons in St. Louis and two in Cincinnati. In 2009 he did start eight games with the Bills, but his passing numbers were less than mediocre and he finished with a 69.7 passer rating.

In 2010 Fitzpatrick enjoyed his coming out party with the Bills passing for 3,000 yards, completing nearly 58% of his passes, and tossing 23 touchdowns in just 13 games. Ryan did struggle down the stretch and toss 15 picks last season which could deter some owners, but with a full camp as the starter under his belt in 2011 he should be more that capable of ironing out the bugs.

Fitzpatrick had plenty of strong numbers in 2010 that should keep him in good company as a solid back-up fantasy quarterback in 2011. He’ll also benefit greatly with his returning cast of receivers in 2011 that will include Stevie Johnson, Roscoe Parrish, and Lee Evans (if he is not released). Fitzpatrick has started 33 games over the past three seasons, so 2011 should be make-it-or-break-it time; he’s not a fantasy starter, but could give owners some relief as an insurance back with a few spots starts and bye week replacement.

That’s how I read it for 2011 under center….

By David Ortega