FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Night Edition
October 11th 2019

Week 6: Four Horsemen

QB-Gardner Minshew, JAX: The Jaguars quarterback has been a solid fantasy starter over the past 3 weeks, ranking as the No.8 fantasy QB. This week Minshew mania storms the field in Jacksonville to take on the Saints and a defense that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past 4 weeks. In his last three starts Minshew has passed for 791 yards, 6 touchdowns, and zero picks. He’s a solid play for Week 6, start him!

RB-Le’Veon Bell, NYJ: The Jets running has been a high volume usage monster through four games this season, totalling 98 touches. Bell currently ranks as the No.17 fantasy RB and this week takes on a Dallas defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past 4 weeks. Bell has 27 receptions (ranks 3rd among RBs through 5 weeks) and has 166 receiving yards (ranks 9th). The Cowboys have allowed 37 receptions to opposing running backs, ranks tied for the 3rd most allowed through five weeks, so Bell owners can expect a busy Sunday for Jets ball carrier; start him. 

WR-Auden Tate, CIN: Cincinnati’s strolls into Baltimore on Sunday and Auden Tate will start as the Bengals No.2 receiver. With Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd likely being the focus of the Ravens defense, Tate figures to be the beneficiary. Over the past 4 weeks, the Ravens defense has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including 873 receiving yards (3rd most). Tate is a bit of risky play, but the numbers show, he has upside potential play in this matchup; he’s my start.

TE-Greg Olsen, CAR: The Buccaneers defense has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends over the past 4 weeks, including 29 receptions and 391 receiving yards (most allowed). This Sunday Panthers tight end Greg Olsen, the No. 9 fantasy TE through 5 weeks will look to rebound after getting shutout in Week 5 and only totaling 2 receptions over his past two games. In week 2, Olsen finished with 6 receptions for 110 yards receiving against the same Bucs defense he will see on Sunday; start him. 

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 19th 2017

Thursday Late Night Edition

My Week 7 Perfect Lineup

(NFL.com)

No need to mince words. After six weeks, we’ve seen a lot of action and we pretty much know who the studs are and who they are not. Looking ahead to Sunday, here are the studs, with the matchups I like for my Week 7 Perfect Lineup.

QB-Drew Brees

I road with Brees last week and will double-down with the Saints passer again this week. Brees and company are at home again this week and will get a Rodgers-less Packers team this Sunday. Brees is only the No.15 fantasy QB this season, so this could be a good week for him to move up the boards.

RB-LeSean McCoy

The Bills running back is coming off the bye, so he should be well rested and ready to go Sunday against the Buccaneers. McCoy hasn’t been able to break loose this season, just one 100-yard game under his belt. The Bucs were just diced up by Adrian Peterson in week 6 for 134 rushing yards, so McCoy will be hoping to bust out as well.

RB-Devonta Freeman

This has to be one of my favorite picks for the week. The Falcons get a rematch with the Patriots and one thing we’ve seen from New England, they have all kinds of issue on defense. Freeman is a versatile back and will contribute on the ground and in the air. I think he has a big night Sunday night.

WR-Julio Jones

Playing off the Patriots defensive woes, I will double-dip with wide receiver Julio Jones in this week 7 matchup. The Pats allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and it’s time for Julio to break out!

WR-Dez Bryant

The Cowboys travel out West this Sunday to face the Niners. For Dez and company, they get a shot at one of the league’s worst pass defenses and a secondary that has allowed the 7th most receptions to opposing wide receivers. Dez has been heavily targeted this season, averaging more than 9 per game. He’ll be involved on Sunday and could be in line for a big day.

TE-Jimmy Graham

Graham is healthy and has a great matchup this week. With the Giants next on the slate, Graham will take his shots at a defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including the most receiving yards (432) and most touchdowns (7).

PK-Ryan Succop

The Titans are on the road to face the Browns this week and while I like their matchup very much on Sunday, I expect several trips into the red-zone, but maybe settling for a few more kicks than they would like. Succop has been solid, among the leaders having made 16 of 17 field goals this season.

D/ST-Panthers

I am playing the odds here with this pick, going with the defense facing a rookie quarterback (Mitch Trubisky). The Panthers are on the road this week, but with Cam playing as well as he has been, if they can get up on the Bears that will put a lot of pressure on Trubisky.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 12th 2017

Thursday Evening Edition

Thursday's Twitter Takes

"Newton is rolling, no stopping the Cam train!" by @FantsySprtshome

Not much to say about this. Cam Newton appears to have rediscovered his MVP and over the past two weeks he has again looked like Superman.

"Funchess and Benjamin should find the endzone" by @FantsySprtshome

Both of Cam's targets (Funchess & Benjamin) are huge receivers with solid hands and will be in play in the red-zone.

"Wentz has been good, but a tough road match could slow his roll" by @FantsySprtshome

The Panthers have been tough against the pass and allow the 9th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Wentz is too good to be shut down, but the Panthers D is more than capable enough to slow him down.

"I'm looking for Agholor to again be the not-so-sneaky play tonight." @FantsySprtshome

The Eagles receiver broke out last week with a big performance. On the year he has three touchdowns and his 12 yards per targets ranks among the receiving leaders in the league. He's not a heavy volume receiver, but he's effective.

Tonight's matchup should be a pretty good one. According to the numbers this one could be lining up to be a defensive struggle, but I have a feeling we are going to see some fireworks from Cam and Carson. Both bring a nice compliment of weapons and too much talent on offense to be held in check. The running attacks will be modest tonight, look for most of the damage to come from the air.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd 2017

Sunday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

Even with plenty of drafts left to be completed this weekend (still have several myself), I’m going to start turning my attention away from who to draft, but rather toward what to expect from some of your draftees or draft prospect.

By now we’ve heard a lot of the conversations and we are familiar with the many fantasy player names, so here’s my take on a few of this year’s Studs and Duds. And when I say dud, just be clear not a bust. A dud is player that does not live up to the draft position or hype. So let’s get to it.

Studs (Target these players)

No surprise here with the Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell. Everyone knows his name and they’ve seen his work. The only question folks are asking, is the first pick Bell or Cardinals running back David Johnson. In my book the choice is Bell, everyday and twice on Sunday. No disrespect to DJ, he’s going to have a big season, but the pick is Bell. Last season, Le’Veon played in just 12 games and finished as the No.3 fantasy running back (PPR format) last season and averaged 26.5 fantasy points per game (Johnson averaged 25.5). Bell is a gifted runner with smooth moves, and an elite pass catcher (75 receptions last season). Entering the 2017 season, Bell is healthy and a major compliment to an offense that looks poised to make a lot of noise this season.

In the NFC North, the Bears have a grinder in their backfield by the name of Jordan Howard; this kid is a stud. He’s going to be available at the turn of the 1st and 2nd round and should go ahead of running backs like Jay Ajayi, Todd Gurley, and DeMarco Murray. Last season after missing the first game, Howard didn’t start for the Bears until week 4 and finished as the No. 10 fantasy running back (PPR format), he was 9th in standard leagues. Howard rushed for over 1,300 yards in 2016, including 7 100-yard games. He’s the bell-cow in Chicago and should put up even better numbers in 2017.

Duds (drafting too high)

There’s no question Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is a top talent in the NFL, but last season with insufficient quarterback play he finished 2016 as the No. 26 wide receiver. His line for 2016 was 78-954-4 on 151 targets. This season he’s going to be playing with a rookie quarterback, so even if he sees the same volume this season it’s hard for me to see his quarterback being dramatically more efficient. As good a player as Hopkins is, if he takes a step up finishing closer to 80-1,000-5 (which would have put him as a borderline top 20 fantasy receiver last season), a borderline top 20 receiver is where I see Hopkins ceiling this season. He’s being drafted as the No. 16 fantasy receiver in PPR format (according to FFC), but there are other player options I like ahead of him like;  Kelvin Benjamin, Michael Crabtree, Davante Adams, and even Martavis Bryant.

Although I am on high on this kid and a big fan of running back Christian McCaffrey, even in PPR format I don’t expect a near top 10 finish. McCaffrey could conceivably catch 60-65 balls this season, but I believe 125 carries is probably near his ceiling for his first season with a projected finish around 190.5 fantasy points; this would be in line for just outside the top 20 last season. McCaffrey looks like he could be a special player, but his current ADP of 2.12 (No. 12 fantasy running back according FFC in PPR) is a bit too rich and tall order for the rookie (if you ask me). If you are going to want the Panther’s rookie running back for this season, you will have to reach for him early in your draft, but that’s what it is a reach in the 2nd round.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 26th 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

The Fantasy Draft Room

Recap

It’s still relatively early for the fantasy draft season, but no question it is in high gear now. I’ve managed to complete several myself and following along with several others. I’ve also been on the internet quite a bit lately checking many websites for the current ADP of many players.

With your draft season kicking into high gear, I am just running through and recapping some recent picks made in my drafts that I have taken note.

Let’s start at the top with Buccaneers Mike Evans. I am hearing a lot of good things about Evans and I am on the bandwagon for another big season. Last year Evans finished as the No.3 fantasy receiver with a stat line of 96-1321-12, and going off the draft boards as the No. 4 receiver big things are expected again this season. Fantasy owners will have to target him early.

Last season was unquestionably Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan’s best season of his career with a 70.0 completion percentage, 4,944 yards passing, and 38 touchdowns. He’ll have a lot of the same pieces in place for the 2017 season, so an encore performance to his 2016 campaign looks likely. He’s clearly the number 4 quarterback going off draft boards around the 5th round, a full round in front of the 5th QB, (according to FFC ADP). Fantasy owners are drinking the Cool-aid; another big season for Matty Ice. He’s a great target to start those middle rounds, after you filled your backfield and/or slotted your wideouts.

Moving right along Terrelle Pryor, coming off a nice 2016 showing in Cleveland (77 receptions, 1,007 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns) the Redskins newest big target in their passing game is being drafted as a solid WR2. Last season Pryor finished as the No. 19 fantasy receiver in scoring, in a better system this year with Kirk Cousin chucking the rock in his direction Pryor should easily match and exceed his numbers from a year ago.I see him more as a low WR2, but will just as happy taking him a little early as my WR2; being drafted around the middle of the third round in 12 team leagues.

One play I am not completely enthused about is the Raiders running back Marshawn Lynch. After taking a year off it make take Lynch a few games to find Beast Mode and his current ADP (late second round) is too rich for my blood. I don’t necessarily think Lynch will be a bust, just not ready to sell the farm with a 2nd round pick. His value is more in line for me a couple of rounds later, 4th round or early 5th.

Right now one of the hottest fantasy stocks on the rise has to be Vikings rookie running back Dalvin Cook. A lot of positive reports suggesting Cook could be a three-down back and with Latavius Murray missing as much time as he has, the rookie has been able to showcase his talents. It’s early and only preseason, but an early 3rd round grab (current ADP 3.04 according to FFC) sits well with me. Cook is a fantasy running back I’d like to own this season.

Another hot fantasy stock is the Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey. The rookie out of Stanford arrived with on the hype train this summer and so far he’s making believers everywhere. McCaffrey figures to be a change of pace ball-carrier in Carolina, but heavily involved in the pass game; can you say PPR stud. His current ADP puts him in the 3rd round and someone fantasy owners will target as a preferred RB2, especially in PPR formats.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 24th 2016
Saturday morning Edition

DFS Week 16 Core 4

For those of us that can’t get enough fantasy football playing in season long leagues, luckily we have DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports). If you’re as enthusiastic as I, you love DFS as much as the season long redraft leagues and these days we have plenty of options to play.

My choice this week is Fan Duel, a personal favorite; lots of games, big contests, with big prizes. Playing in the weekly game is no easy task, there may be a science to it, but even Newton would be challenged to figure it out. Sometimes playing is like throwing darts in the dark.

If you are game to play in any of the weekly contests, you must know navigating through matchups, tendencies, and injuries is hard enough, but be restricted by a salary cap and well, the challenge is set.

This week I am building my lineups around a core of four players, my “Fantastic Four” if you will; QB-Cam Newton, RB-Jordan Howard, WR-DeAndre Hopkins, and TE-Greg Olsen.

Cam has been off this year, by his MVP standards from last season, but he is still Cam and last week he may have found his groove again. The Panthers quarterback may have only completed 56% of his passes, but he passed for 300 yards and two scores. This week he draws the Falcons, worst defense versus opposing quarterbacks; 28 touchdowns allowed (2nd most), 282 yards passing allowed per game (2nd worst). This is a great matchup at home for Cam and his $7,900 salary is more than inviting.

Teaming up with Cam to double-down is Panthers tight end Greg Olsen. He is one of Cam’s favorite targets and over the past 7 games Olsen has been targeted no fewer than 7 times in all but one game, and that came back in week 12 when he was targeted just five times. Olsen has a great matchup this week against a Falcon defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Back in week 4 Olsen turned in a stat line of 6 receptions for 76 yards and a score. Fantasy owners can expect similar numbers today for the tight end that is priced at only $6,800.

In the backfield, my third anchor of this marvel fantasy team is Bears running back Jordan Howard. The rookie runner has been one of the bright spots of the Bears offense this season already topping the 1,000 yard rushing mark. This week he faces a defense (Redskins) that has been one of the worst against the run over the past four weeks. In that span the Redskins have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Howard has been solid the past 7 games topping 100 yards of offense in each, adding five rushing touchdowns. Fantasy owners can expect the fantasy bargain at $7,200 Howard to see at least 20 touches today.

Lastly, my fourth anchor is Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. With new blood under center last week Hopkins saw 17 targets which he turned into 8 receptions for 87 yards. If he can see somewhere around 10 targets today, he should have little trouble matching his output last week and may even find the end zone. The Bengals have been stingy versus opposing wide receivers this season, but Hopkins did register a stat line of 5 catches for 57 yards and a score last season. At just $6,600 this week, he’s a fantasy play worth building my team around.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

February 24th, 2010 11:07pm PST

David's Daily Digest

[My Take]

More football news and happenings from around the league; here’s the latest I am hearing, reading, and following with my take on things and how they will impact the coming fantasy week……

Player Notes From Across My Wire...

Could Moore be less in Carolina

The Panthers could be in dire straits this offseason trying to rectify their dysfunctional quarterback situation. It doesn't sound like the team is ready to hand the keys to the offense over to back-up quarterback Matt Moore, but after a disastrous 2009 campaign it's hard to imagine they would give quarterback Jake Delhomme (18 interceptions in 2009) another crack. Moore led the team to a 4-1 record down the stretch and tossed eight touchdowns in his last four starts. He won't be at the top of any fantasy owner's draft list, but he could be a decent back up option (if he wins the job).

Austin is not going anywhere

I don't care what the headlines are reading or who is saying what, there's no chance of Jerry Jones letting Austin leave town. If Jones can spend all that cabbage on his eighth wonder of the world, he'll pony up the needed bucks to keep his best receiver in Big D. Austin is coming off a huge breakout season in which he topped 1,300 yards receiving and scored 11 touchdowns. He'll be a late number one or early number two fantasy receiver this summer.

Check back with "Your Fantasy Sports Home" for more Football to digest....

FSH: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

February 23rd, 2010 11:07pm PST

David's Daily Digest

[My Take]

More football news and happenings from around the league; here’s the latest I am hearing, reading, and following with my take on things and how they will impact the coming fantasy week……

Player Notes From Across My Wire...

Peppers to hit the market

It didn't take long for someone to show interest in the former Panther Julius Peppers. Word on the street is the Bears will pursue Peppers. The Bears have an aging defense, but if healthy with the addition of Peppers they could be very good. Peppers is coming off a very good 2009 season and should still have plenty left to be an IDP difference maker in Chicago.

Westbrook to lose his wings

Although it has not been made official, it has been reported that Westbrook will be released by the Eagles. The former Eagle is a similar prototype to the recently released Tomlinson and will likely seek a similar situation; a back-role on a contender. It's already being reported Minnesota could be a possible destination. Other places that could salvage some fantasy value for the 30 year old running back could include; (just speculating) Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Houston, New England, Cincinnati, Chicago, and even Denver.

Folk signs with the Jets

Talking about kickers is never a favorite subject, but since this is news my only comment; if Folk struggled to hold a job kicking indoors at Dallas this marriage in the windy outdoors of New York could be short-lived. Folk won't be rated very well come fantasy draft time.

Check back with "Your Fantasy Sports Home" for more Football to digest....