FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition
November 17th 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

Numbers, Numbers, Numbers

The Bills Quarterback Josh Allen has a prime road matchup against the Dolphins, ranked 26th against opposing QBs, according to FanDuel. Allen has scored at least 17 fantasy points over his last five games and has a great chance to keep this trend going.

The Raiders rookie running back Josh Jacobs has been solid this season and will get the 29th ranked defense versus the running back in the Bengals. In his last two games Jacobs has totaled over 100 yards and scored three touchdowns. He has a very good opportunity to do both today.

The Falcons will have a new face starting in their backfield today with running back Brian Hill taking over ball-carrying duties for the injured Devonta Freeman out. Hill logged 20 carries last week replacing the injured Freeman and should see similar work today against the shaky Panthers run defense (ranked 30th against opposing running backs). Hill could be a nice sneaky play in DFS today.

The Texans top receiving target DeAndre Hopkins (PPR Fantasy WR7) has not been big this season, but he has been steady. Over his past three games Hopkins has logged at least 15 fantasy points (according to FanDuel) with at least 8 receptions. Hopkins will get the Ravens secondary (ranked 17th versus opposing wide receivers, according to FD) today and have a chance at keeping those steady numbers rolling.

Despite what should be a difficult road matchup against the Vikings today, the Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (PPR Fantasy WR14) has a chance to continue his solid 2019 campaign today facing the 27th ranked defense versus wide receivers. Sutton has had at least 6 targets in every game this season and has scored in double digit fantasy points in 7 straight games.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

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October 30th 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday’s Lineup Killers

(Week 8)

The Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston was having a solid 2017 campaign heading into week 8. Back in week 6 against the Cardinals he suffered a shoulder injury which forced him from the game early. After aggravating his shoulder injury last week against the Bills, Winston started the Week 8 against the Panthers. 

After struggling all day and posting less than 4 fantasy points and throwing two interceptions, you have to wonder how much the injury affected him. Nonetheless, his poor outing on Sunday was your lineup’s demise (if you started him).

Here are a few others from Week 8 that took down fantasy owners lineups;

QB-Dak Prescott; the Cowboys did not need much from Prescott relying heavily on their running game and fantasy owners didn’t get much. Prescott only threw 22 passes passing for 143 yards with zero touchdowns. Owners can relax, there will be better days ahead for Prescott, as the Cowboys will need bigger games from him down the stretch.

RB-Devonta Freeman; the Falcons stud running back was off on Sunday, not able to break loose gaining just 41 yards rushing. This was a disappointing effort against a defense ranked 28th versus the run.

WR-Dez Bryant; with Prescott only throwing 22 passes, there were only few opportunities for Bryant on Sunday. Dez finished with just 4 catches for 39 yards on 6 targets. With Elliott likely returning to suspension, Bryant’s role could grow even more over the next several weeks.

WR-Stefon Diggs; the Vikings stud receiver returned to the lineup on Sunday, but it may take him another week to get back to his old self. Diggs was targeted 6 times, but could only turn that into 4 catches for 27 yards.

WR-Hunter Henry; the Chargers tight end continues his up and down scoring cycle for the season, with another dud on Sunday. Henry caught just 2 passes for 11 yards. He’s the No.10 fantasy tight end in PPR, but his volatile production can make him awful risky at times.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 21st 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 7 RB Rankings

In a matchup that should be filled with plenty of fireworks, I really like Falcons running back Devonta Freeman this week. Despite this being a road game for the Falcons, it’s a great matchup for Freeman against a struggling Patriots defense.

RB Rankings

1. Le’Veon Bell

2. Ezekiel Elliott

3. Devonta Freeman

4. LeSean McCoy

5. Todd Gurley

6. Jay Ajayi

7. Melvin Gordon

8. Mark Ingram

9. Jordan Howard

10. Carlos Hyde

11. Alvin Kamara

12. Jerick McKinnon

13. Christian McCaffrey

14. Leonard Fournette

15. Doug Martin

16. Chris Thompson

17. Adrian Peterson

18. CJ Anderson

19. Tevin Coleman

20. James White

21. Duke Johnson

22. Javorius Allen

23. Joe Mixon

24. Dion Lewis

25. Derrick Henry

26. Ty Montgomery

27. LeGarrette Blount

28. DeMarco Murray

29. Aaron Jones

30. Orleans Darkwa

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 19th 2017

Thursday Late Night Edition

My Week 7 Perfect Lineup

(NFL.com)

No need to mince words. After six weeks, we’ve seen a lot of action and we pretty much know who the studs are and who they are not. Looking ahead to Sunday, here are the studs, with the matchups I like for my Week 7 Perfect Lineup.

QB-Drew Brees

I road with Brees last week and will double-down with the Saints passer again this week. Brees and company are at home again this week and will get a Rodgers-less Packers team this Sunday. Brees is only the No.15 fantasy QB this season, so this could be a good week for him to move up the boards.

RB-LeSean McCoy

The Bills running back is coming off the bye, so he should be well rested and ready to go Sunday against the Buccaneers. McCoy hasn’t been able to break loose this season, just one 100-yard game under his belt. The Bucs were just diced up by Adrian Peterson in week 6 for 134 rushing yards, so McCoy will be hoping to bust out as well.

RB-Devonta Freeman

This has to be one of my favorite picks for the week. The Falcons get a rematch with the Patriots and one thing we’ve seen from New England, they have all kinds of issue on defense. Freeman is a versatile back and will contribute on the ground and in the air. I think he has a big night Sunday night.

WR-Julio Jones

Playing off the Patriots defensive woes, I will double-dip with wide receiver Julio Jones in this week 7 matchup. The Pats allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and it’s time for Julio to break out!

WR-Dez Bryant

The Cowboys travel out West this Sunday to face the Niners. For Dez and company, they get a shot at one of the league’s worst pass defenses and a secondary that has allowed the 7th most receptions to opposing wide receivers. Dez has been heavily targeted this season, averaging more than 9 per game. He’ll be involved on Sunday and could be in line for a big day.

TE-Jimmy Graham

Graham is healthy and has a great matchup this week. With the Giants next on the slate, Graham will take his shots at a defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including the most receiving yards (432) and most touchdowns (7).

PK-Ryan Succop

The Titans are on the road to face the Browns this week and while I like their matchup very much on Sunday, I expect several trips into the red-zone, but maybe settling for a few more kicks than they would like. Succop has been solid, among the leaders having made 16 of 17 field goals this season.

D/ST-Panthers

I am playing the odds here with this pick, going with the defense facing a rookie quarterback (Mitch Trubisky). The Panthers are on the road this week, but with Cam playing as well as he has been, if they can get up on the Bears that will put a lot of pressure on Trubisky.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 15th 2017

Friday Afternoon Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

Here’s my Week 2 lineup for Fan Duel;

QB-Derek Carr ($8,300): The Raiders starter played well on the road last week and this week he gets the lowly Jets who will have to travel across the country. This meeting sets up as a very favorable matchup for Carr. He’s coming off a great 2016 campaign (before getting hurt) and again played well in week one, he’ll likely lead the way again on Sunday.

RB-Melvin Gordon ($7,600): The Chargers running back got plenty of work in week 1 against a tough Broncos defense. He should see similar work in week 2 with greater success playing at home and facing a Dolphins defense that will have to travel across the country. I like Gordon as a top 10 running back this week.

RB-Devonta Freeman ($8,100): Like the Patriots-Saints matchup this week, the Packers-Falcons Sunday night matchup has the prospects of being a high scoring affair. The Freeman and the Falcons will be at home where they seem to be a better team than on the road and this will be a grand-opening of their new stadium. Freeman had a bit of a quiet first week, but in this one I look for him to get plenty of work and put up plenty of points.

WR-Michael Thomas ($8,000) & WR-Brandin Cooks ($7,900): The Saints-Patriots matchup has all of the makings of an old-fashioned western shootout at the O.K. Corral. Both teams have two prolific passers and with secondaries that struggled mightily in week one; need I say more. Both Thomas and Cooks are going to see plenty of shots down the field on each side and could be in for big nights in this Clash of the (quarterback) Titans; Brady versus Brees.

WR-Nelson Agholor ($5,500): The Eagles receiver was effective and open a lot in week one and should remain on his quarterback’s radar in this week 2 road match up with the Chiefs. At his price, he offers great value for a receiver who figures to see his fair share; Agholor was target 8 times turning in a line of 6/86/1 in week 1. Similar numbers could surface on Sunday.

TE-Jared Cook ($5,100): At his price Cook is a great value in a preferable matchup this week. Cook was 5 for 5 (targets & catches) for 56 yards, but could see increased production against a Jets defense surrendered 14.30 fantasy points to the tight end last week. I like him this week as a stack with Carr.

K-Will Lutz ($4,700): With the Patriots coming to town this week, the Sunday affair figures to be a shoot and a lot of points. Lutz should be very busy once again after putting up 14 fantasy points in week 1.

D-Buccaneers ($4,500): I am going with gut instinct here. Bucs will be at home in which should be an emotional game with the recent events. Winston and company should help control tempo and allow the defense to stay aggressive.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 6th 2017

Wednesday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

As I have already mentioned before, I’ve manage to participate in quite a number of fantasy drafts this pre-season and by this time that number has doubled. And through my draft software and web-surfing travels I’m still making plenty of mental notes (and of course several now on the back of napkins). With the 2017 NFL season less than 24 hours from kick-off, I am sharing even more of my thoughts and two cents (and yes I can make change of a nickel).

Fantasy Running Backs

Devonta Freeman

It seems a lot of the discussion at the top of fantasy drafts centers around running backs David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell; with Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension looming he’s falling in drafts. Even LeSean McCoy and Melvin Gordon get some ink, but the Falcons Devonta Freeman gets little press. Freeman has only finished 6th and 1st in fantasy (PPR) scoring for running backs the past two seasons. The Falcons return 21 of 22 starters this season; I think Freeman easily duplicates what he’s already done. Fantasy owners won’t go wrong taking him as a Top-5 fantasy back this season.

Todd Gurley

This kid is just too good to be held back, no matter how bad his offense plays. Last season the Rams offense was bad, but despite running back Todd Gurley finished as the No.15 fantasy RB in PPR. I don’t expect great improvements from the Rams, but under new first year head coach Sean McVay, I’m sure he can find more ways to utilize Gurley and get more productivity. I like Gurley to bounce back from last season and crack the Top-10 in 2017.

Ameer Abdullah

I am actually excited to see a healthy Abdullah back this season; missed 14 games last season to injury. The Lions didn’t spend a 2nd round pick in 2015 on running back Ameer Abdullah for nothing. He’s not going to be a bell-cow this season, but at 5’9” and 203 pounds Abdullah is a quick, strong, and versatile back that will see plenty of action in the passing game as well as the ground game. I don’t think it’s out of reach to see him finish around 220 touches (carries + catches) this season giving him a good chance at finishing well inside the Top-20 fantasy Running Backs. He’s being drafted well outside the Top-20 now making him a nice value at his current 5.06 ADP (according to FFC).

Doug Martin

Who is my favorite Martin or my favorite running back in Tampa Bay? Either way I’ll take running back Doug Martin when I can get him. Suspended for the first three games this season, I am finding little trouble taking him as my 3rd or 4th running back off the boards in the 5th to 7th rounds in some drafts. He’s worked hard in the offseason and has looked good in the preseason. I’m expecting a big year for Martin in 2017; it will just get started a little later. His current ADP of 5.01 (according to FFC) is in line, but I’m saying if you have to ability to take him any later he’ll be well worth the pick.

Robert Kelley

The Redskins starting running back Robert Kelley seems to be the quiet man in Washington with all of the Samaje Perine talk. I’m sure the rookie is good and he’ll be good, but have we forgotten all about Kelley? The 2nd year former undrafted free agent rookie out of Tulane won the starting gig just a year ago and finished as the No.26 fantasy running back (in standard leagues) last season. He also didn’t start until mid-season and from weeks 8 on thru 17 he was the No. 14 fantasy running back in PPR (according to Fantasy Pros). You’re probably not going to break the bank with Kelley, but he has value. He’s looked fine in preseason and should give fantasy owners decent production, especially as the No.27 running back going off the boards (an RB3 in 12-Team PPR leagues) according to FFC.

Jamaal Charles

Now I am probably going to take a lot of heat for this one, which is okay. Sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re wrong, and sometimes you whiff. The Broncos running back Jamaal Charles enters the 2017 campaign expected to backup running back CJ Anderson. I maintain here, that Charles is hands down the more talented back and has enough in his tank to win the job outright. Now’s he’s no young stud and can no longer carry the 20-25 touch workload, but if he can see 15-18 touches consistently this season and hold up, I believe he’s got a real shot at RB2 production. He ran well in his one cameo and even better looked great in pass protection. I am all-in this season with Charles in charge.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up the Wide Receivers

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January 11th, 2017
Wednesday Night Edition

Divisional Round DFS

Another week of fantasy football and life is good. With the Divisional matchups set, there are plenty of plays this week that I like, so let’s take a look at the core plays I will be building my (Fan Duel) DFS lineups around this week.

Let’s start with defense. Although the Texans may have a number of coaches that have been cycled through the Patriot’s coaching carousel including Bill O’Brien, at home the Patriots defense ($5,100 salary) is still going to be very tough to crack. Even as the highest salaried defense, the Patriots are a safe play this week against an offense that ranks in the bottom 10 for giving fantasy points to opposing defense. The Patriots defense has also scored in double digits in two of their last three homes games; that’s trending in the right direction.

Another trend that I like as a bargain play this week is the other Atlanta running back Tevin Coleman ($4,500 salary). Starter running back Devonta Freeman ($7,600 salary) is going to be a popular play this week, but at his current salary and 11 touchdowns this season Coleman could be a nice contrarian play.

The Cowboys defense is ranked 31st versus opposing tight ends and over the last four weeks of the season they allowed the most. This sets up Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($8,800 salary) and his tight end Jared Cook ($5,400 salary) as possibly a nice tandem play for this weekend. Rodgers has had the hot hand of late to say the least; in his last 8 games 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Cook missed the first matchup versus the Cowboys, but you can bet he’ll be heavily involved with the likelihood of no Jordy Nelson.

Rounding out the line-up, a low play at place kicker Nick Novak ($4,500 salary) and a nice value, but a little risky play with Seahawks wide receiver Paul Richardson ($4,700 salary) opens the door for sliding in a couple of big guns like Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones, Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown, and Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott.
On paper these might sound and look good, but that’s why they play the games. Good luck this weekend if you play.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega