FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

November 22nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Fantasy notes for Week 12.

Over his last three games, the Texans rookie quarterback CJ Stroud is completing 69.2% of his passes, while averaging 387.3 yards passing per game this season. Stroud is a low-end QB-1 against the Jaguars in Week 12.

Over his last three starts the 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is completing 77.8% of his passes, while averaging 331.3 yards passing per game this season. On the road this Thursday, Purdy is a QB-1 in Week 12 versus the Seahawks.

In his last four starts the Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been on a tear tossing 13 touchdowns and adding one rushing score, while averaging 317.8 yards passing per game. With a Week 12 Thanksgiving day matchup against the Commanders, Prescott will be a top-end QB-1.

The Texans running back Devin Singletary has averaged 26 carries over his last two games, while averaging 131 yards rushing and 5.0 yards per carry. With the potential return of running back Dameon Pierce, Singletary should be considered a back-end RB2/flex option this week.

The Bills running back James Cook ranks 5th among running backs with 269 yards rushing over the last 4 weeks and he's averaging 5.5 yards per carry during this stretch. With a Week 12 showdown matchup on Sunday against the Eagles, Cook figures in as a low RB2. 

Since week 8, the Ravens running Gus Edwards leads the NFL with 8 rushing touchdowns while rushing for 218 yards. Edwards will slot in this week as a strong RB2 play against the Chargers on Sunday night.

Since Week 8, the Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (fantasy RB11) has been targeted 21 times and leads all running backs with 19 receptions. Effective in the pass game, White should be considered a strong RB2 this week against the Colts.

Since Week 7, the Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (fantasy RB6) has been targeted 26 times, registering 23 receptions and 189 yards receiving (ranks 4th among RBs during this stretch). Gibbs is locked in as a borderline RB1/RB2.

In Week 11, the Giants running back Saquon Barkley (fantasy RB9) turned 5 targets into 4 receptions, 57 yards receiving, with two touchdown catches. Barkley has 27 receptions for 162 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns this season. With a Week 12 tilt on Sunday against the Patriots, Barkley is locked in as an RB1.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: MY WEEKLY FANTASY FIXX

November 18th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

My Weekly DFS Favorites

I just can’t get enough fantasy football and over the next 8 days, we’re going to enjoy three days with multiple games, enough to fill the slate and provide that desired fantasy fix. In less than 12 hours, it’s DFS time Week 11 and here are my favorites for tomorrow.

$7300-KD, Dak Prescott (Cowboys) The Cowboys signal caller has been on a tear over the past three weeks. Prescott is averaging 360.7 yards passing per game while completing 73.0% of his passes, and tossing 11 touchdowns. The Panthers defense has been stingy against opposing quarterbacks for the most part this season, but have finished in the bottom five for the week against the Lions and Dolphins. Prescott and company could likely put them there once again.

$6400-DK, Breece Hall (Jets) The Jets ball carrier hasn’t been setting the fantasy world on fire as of late, but he continues to see a steady workload, which should bode well for his Week 11 matchup with the Bills. In his last 5 games, Hall has seen no fewer than 16 touches per game, averaging 19.2 touches per game recording 311 rushing yards, 21 receptions, 204 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns. He’s a solid RB-2 in Week 11. 

$7200-DK, Travis Etienne Jr (Jaguars) The Jags runner was slowed last week in a lopsided loss to the Niners, but Week 11 sets up for a bounce back game. Before last week, Etienne entered the contest averaging 20+ carries per game in his prior 4 games totaling 323 yards on the ground. He’s an RB-1 fantasy play this week.

$6200-DK, Amari Cooper (Browns) In his three games with PJ Walker as the primary passer (weeks 6,7 & 8), Cooper has averaged 9.0 targets per contest while totaling 12 receptions, for 219 yards receiving, and 18.25 yards per reception. Facing the Steelers 27th ranked secondary (DraftKings) versus opposing wide receivers, Cooper is a low-end WR2.

$7200-DK, Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) At his price level on Draftkings, Aiyuk is a very appealing play this week matched up against the Buccaneers. The Bucs rank 29th (DK) versus opposing wide receivers and Aiyuk has been consistent averaging 4.3 receptions, 73.7 yards receiving with one touchdown over his last three games. He’s a strong WR-2 in Week 11.

$7100-DK, Puka Nacua (Rams) Set to play on Sunday after returning to full participation in practice this week, Puka is the better value between he and (Cooper) Kupp. In his last four games Puka has enjoyed no fewer than 7 targets per game. With a Week 11 matchup against the Seahawks 19th ranked secondary (DK), Nacua should be a borderline WR-1/WR-2 on Sunday.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING (WK10)

November 13th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting

(Week 10 Takeaways)

The Giants offense is bad.

Not only are the G-men the lowest scoring team in the league, but they also have the fewest passing yards per game and only the Jets have fewer passing touchdowns. The Giants continue to set new lows and other than running back Saquon Barkley (fantasy RB24), no other G-man is in the top 100 of fantasy.

The Lions offense is fantasy gold.

Not only is Goff playing his way into a fantasy starter for the back stretch of the season, the offense has at least four other fantasy starters in Amon-Ra St.Brown (fantasy WR6), Jahmyr Gibbs (fantasy RB8), David Montgomery (fantasy RB9), and Sam LaPorta (fantasy TE4).

Other notable takeaways from Week 10.

The Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (fantasy QB4) has averaged 360.7 yards passing while completing 73% of his passes with 11 touchdowns over his last three games.

The Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (fantasy QB9) has thrown 17 touchdowns this season, including 8 in his last three games.

The Lions running back David Montgomery (fantasy RB9) who has 501 yards rushing, has rushed for over 100 yards in a game three times this season.

The Lions rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (fantasy RB8) has cashed in with 4 rushing touchdowns this season to go along with his 476 yards rushing and 200 receiving yards.

With his 11 catches on Sunday, the Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (fantasy WR2) now leads the NFL with 73 receptions this season through 9 games.

The Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (fantasy WR4) has been on a tear of late, totaling  41 receptions for 617 yards receiving with three touchdowns over his last four games.

With his 11 grabs on Sunday, the Vikings tight end TJ Hockenson (fantasy TE2) has hauled in 71 passes this season to lead all tight ends.

The 49ers tight end George Kittle (fantasy TE4) has totaled 35 receptions for 559 yards receiving and averaged 16 yards per reception this season.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY NIGHT FF QUICK TAKES (WEEK 10)

November 10th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Friday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Quick Takes

Passers that are Slingin It

Dak Prescott (Cowboys) The Cowboys signal caller Dak Prescott has been on a heater over his last three starts. He is completing 71.4% of his passes averaging 316.7 yards passing per game with 8 touchdowns and a passer rating of 120.73. Prescott and the Cowboys have won two of their last three, falling just short last week against the Eagles. This week with a home tilt against the Giants, Prescott should be considered mid-to-low QB-1.

Joe Burrow (Bengals) The Bengals passer has been on a roll of late finishing in the Top-10 fantasy quarterbacks for the week in three of his last four starts. Through his last four games Burrow is averaging 283.2 yards passing, completing 76.9% of his passes while tossing 10 touchdowns. With a matchup against the Texans secondary ranked 24th against the pass, Burrow is locked in as a low-end QB-1 this week.

Sam Howell (Commanders) The Commanders quarterback Sam Howell has been slinging it pretty good over his last three games. During this span Howell has averaged 323.7 yards passing per game with completing over 65% of his passes. With quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa on a bye, Howell is in play this week as a low end QB-1 starter.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition
September 29th 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

Week 4 matchups

The Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (QB4 according Fantasy Data) has been solid this season with the league’s 2nd highest passer rating 127.9 (minimum 2 starts), behind only Patrick Mahomes. His week 4 matchup pits him against the Saints defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Lock Dak up for another solid start in Week 4.

Through the first three weeks of the 2019 season, the Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (QB5 according to Fantasy Data) has been on a tear, averaging 300 yards passing and over 70 percent completions. His foe on Sunday is the Arizona Cardinals whose defense has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Wilson is a fantasy Road Warrior, start him.

The Chiefs will be bringing their Big Top Show to the Motor City this week and running LeSean “Shady” McCoy (RB19 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) will have a great matchup against a Lions defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. McCoy is still nursing an ankle injury, but appears ready to go and should be a safe RB2 for Week 4.

The Lions running back Kerryon Johnson (RB22 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) should be a featured focal point of the offense on Sunday when the Chiefs roll into town. The Chiefs defense has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and Lions should be trying to play keep-away with Johnson. Through the first three weeks, Johnson is averaging 17.6 touches per game; he’s likely to see that total finish north of 20, start him.

The Redskins rookie wide receiver Terry McLaurin (WR11 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) leads the team with 24 targets through the first three weeks of the 2019 season. This weeks he’ll get his shot at the Giants secondary that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. As the team’s primary receiving threat, McLaurin should see plenty of opportunities on Sunday; he’s a WR2 play this week.

The Chargers are on the road this Sunday to take on the Dolphins in a matchup that could go south for the Phins early. The Dolphins rookie wide receiver Preston Williams (WR51 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) has been seeing a health share of targets (23) through the first three weeks of the season. If the Dolphins can stay competitive, Williams should be heavily involved and even if this one gets away, he could see a lot of garbage time points (they still count). He’s a bye-week plug or flex play this week.

The Lions rookie tight end TJ Hockenson (TE15 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) started out the 2019 season as a nice fantasy play with a monster opener in week one, but the past couple of weeks he’s been a bit of a disappointment. This week Hockenson draws the Chiefs defense that has allowed the 5th most points to opposing tight ends. The Chiefs have also allowed the most receptions to opposing tight ends which should afford Hockenson plenty of opportunities to produce. He’s a borderline TE1-TE2 this week.

The Broncos offense is need of a kickstart this week and their rookie tight end Noah Fant (TE25 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) could be the one to provide the spark. Fant will face a Jaguars defense that has allowed the 6th most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. Fant’s 11 yards per reception, ranks him 12th amongst tight ends with minimum 10 targets this season. He’s a week 4 sleeper.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 30th 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday’s Lineup Killers

(Week 8)

The Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston was having a solid 2017 campaign heading into week 8. Back in week 6 against the Cardinals he suffered a shoulder injury which forced him from the game early. After aggravating his shoulder injury last week against the Bills, Winston started the Week 8 against the Panthers. 

After struggling all day and posting less than 4 fantasy points and throwing two interceptions, you have to wonder how much the injury affected him. Nonetheless, his poor outing on Sunday was your lineup’s demise (if you started him).

Here are a few others from Week 8 that took down fantasy owners lineups;

QB-Dak Prescott; the Cowboys did not need much from Prescott relying heavily on their running game and fantasy owners didn’t get much. Prescott only threw 22 passes passing for 143 yards with zero touchdowns. Owners can relax, there will be better days ahead for Prescott, as the Cowboys will need bigger games from him down the stretch.

RB-Devonta Freeman; the Falcons stud running back was off on Sunday, not able to break loose gaining just 41 yards rushing. This was a disappointing effort against a defense ranked 28th versus the run.

WR-Dez Bryant; with Prescott only throwing 22 passes, there were only few opportunities for Bryant on Sunday. Dez finished with just 4 catches for 39 yards on 6 targets. With Elliott likely returning to suspension, Bryant’s role could grow even more over the next several weeks.

WR-Stefon Diggs; the Vikings stud receiver returned to the lineup on Sunday, but it may take him another week to get back to his old self. Diggs was targeted 6 times, but could only turn that into 4 catches for 27 yards.

WR-Hunter Henry; the Chargers tight end continues his up and down scoring cycle for the season, with another dud on Sunday. Henry caught just 2 passes for 11 yards. He’s the No.10 fantasy tight end in PPR, but his volatile production can make him awful risky at times.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 25th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

It’s time for some Monday night football and tonight’s matchup between the Cowboys and Cardinals will have plenty of fantasy implications with players like Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Ezekiel Elliott, and Jason Witten.

We’ve seen a lot of improved play this weekend on the offensive side of the ball and tonight I’d expect to see the trend continue. Players like JJ Nelson, Carson Palmer, and Chris Johnson may arrive tonight on the big stage.

Quarterback Dak Prescott; it was tough sledding for the young quarterback last, but tonight he’ll get back to his usual form taking care of the ball and making good decisions. He’s a mid-QB2 this week and is in line to tally his normal 16-20 fantasy points against a Card’s defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Back Ezekiel Elliott; the Cards defense has been pretty solid through two weeks against the run, but they have yet to face any running backs of Elliott’s caliber. Elliott should see his normal workload tonight as this matchup should remain close throughout. He won’t run wild tonight, but his production should be worthy of starting as your RB1.

Wide Receiver Dez Bryant; some speculate a tough matchup for the Cowboys receiver this week. Bryant is a big physical receiver that has the trust of his quarterback; 25 targets through 2 games. Tonight Bryant will matchup with a secondary that was torched back in week one by the Lions; Cards surrendered 18 receptions for 245 yards and three scores. Bryant has only secured 9 passes this season for 102 yards and a touchdown; he’ll make a run at those numbers tonight.

Tight End Jason Witten; the Cowboys veteran tight end has been his quarterback’s security blanket (17 of 22 receptions to targets) through the first two weeks of the season (keeping Witten very relevant in fantasy). He’ll continue to be his go to tonight against the Cardinals and is easily a TE1.

Quarterback Carson Palmer; the Cardinals quarterback has had his struggles in this early season, perhaps is just rust from lack of playing time and practice during training camp and preseason. Some will argue his age has caught up to him, but I think we could see the same weekend trend. I don’t think you are starting Palmer this week, but I think he has a decent outing (good for his receivers) against a secondary that Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian shredded pretty good last week.

Running Back Chris Johnson; the Cardinal’s newest Johnson had few carries last week, but didn’t look bad. He’s sure to get a more sustained look tonight (provided Palmer doesn’t throw this one to the other side early). Johnson will be interesting to watch tonight; not looking for a huge game from him, but rather his usage. If he runs well and still has a little of that great speed, he could become a viable flex option in the short future.

Wide Receiver JJ Nelson; the Cardinals number three receiver in the absence of John Brown (and disappearance of Fitz) has emerged as their best receiver and big play threat. But we saw some of this last season, so we should not be surprised. What has raised eye-brows is his sudden rise in fantasy land. Nelson is the current No.27 fantasy receiver in PPR (No.12 standard) entering tonight’s contest. With a current stat line of 10/163/2, if he’s healthy to go, expect his ranking to rise inside the Top-20 and Top-10 respectively.

Wide Receiver Larry Fitzgerald; the 14 year veteran leads the Cards receivers with 19 targets through two games this season, it just hasn’t translated into any kind of production fantasy owners can trust. He’s typically regarded as a borderline WR/WR3, but given his current state coming off a 3-catch 21-yard performance, owners may want to tap the brakes a bit when it comes to Fitz. He may be down in PPR leagues this week, but he should still hold some value as a flex in standard leagues as a viable red-zone threat

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega