FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL FIXX

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Friday’s Saturday’s Fantasy Fixx

(My DFS Lineup - Week 9)

I love to play DFS every week, but I have yet to hit the Millionaire-maker. Until I do I’ll just keep throwing my hat in the ring and taking a shot. This week I went heavy with the backfield, relying on ball carriers with higher usage rate.

For Week 9, I will shoot with the following;

QB-Derek Carr (Saints) The Saints signal caller has been rolling lately with three straight games with 300+ yards passing. This week he has a home matchup with a 30th ranked Bears secondary.

RB-Jonathan Taylor (Colts) Last week Taylor started heating up with 95 yards rushing last week on 12 carries. This week's matchup against the looks great for 

RB-Aaron Jones (Packers) At home, Rams are going with a back-up quarterback, it’s the perfect storm to turn Jones loose. He’s only averaged 11 touches his last two games, turn him loose.

WR-Van Jefferson (Falcons) With Drake London ruled out for Week 9, the door is open for Jefferson to make an impact in the passing game. A change at quarterback this week may also serve well for Jefferson.

WR-Nico Collins (Texans) The Texans wideout is coming off a quiet Week 8 showing and has not made much noise since his Week 4 explosion against the Steelers. This week he faces a Buccaneers secondary that has struggled against receivers the past couple of games. Week 9 could be redemption for Collins.

WR- Terry McLaurin (Commanders) The Commanders leading receiver this season is averaging better than 10 targets per game over his last three. His target rate gives him a chance for a big game. 

TE-Cole Kmet (Bears) This pick is based on game script. The Bears receivers will likely draw the meat of the secondary. Kmet was targeted 10 times last week and in a matchup that could see the Bears trailing on the road, Kmet could see similar usage.

RB-Alvin Kamara (Saints) This season Kamara has been incredibly safe this season with a higher floor than most. He leads all backfields this season in touches per game and has a very good matchup this week against the Bears who struggle with pass catching running backs, most receiving yards allowed this season.

DST-Browns. The Browns defense has been consistent and one of the safest plays this season. They are home this week against a Cardinals offense that will have a rookie QB making his first career start.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DFS WEEKLY (WEEK 8)

October 28th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

DFS Weekly Primer

Fantasy Five

It’s another week of DFS play for me and looking over the week 8 slate I see several options I can work with to build a lineup. It’s been a rough season for me, I haven't quite had the success I was hoping for and expecting, but Week 8 is another day.

I like players like (RB) Alvin Kamara, (WR) Ja’Marr Chase, and (WR) Terry McLaurin this week and will have plenty of shares of each in my DFS lineup to go along with the following plays here. These are some of the plays that I like in DFS this week.

Dameon Pierce (Texans-RB) The Texans running back has been relatively quiet this season, but a great matchup this week against the Panthers affords the opportunity to shine. The Panthers are the 31st ranked defense against the run and allow the 5th most yards per carry. If the stars align, Pierce could be back in the fantasy fold.

Breece Hall (Jets-RB) Fresh off the bye, the 2nd year back would appear to be healthy and ready for a big Week. Hall has been the clear leader in the backfield the past couple of games and is poised for a big outing against a porous Giants run defense (ranked 27th against the run). His low DFS (DK) salary makes him a premium play this week.

Calvin Ridley (Jaguars-WR) The Jaguars wideout has been highly inconsistent, along the boom or bust lines this season. He is currently the fantasy WR45, but he continues to see a steady diet of targets weekly.  Squaring off with the Steelers this week, Ridley will face a secondary that is ranked 25th against the pass, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points and 7th most receiving yards to opposing receivers.

Odell Beckham Jr (Ravens-WR) This week the Ravens passing game has a good matchup against the Cardinals 23rd ranked defense. The rookie wideout Zay Flowers figures to be a key play for the Ravens on Sunday, but after logging a Full practice on Friday and carrying no injury designation Beckham Jr could be ready for a bigger role this week. OBJ is coming off his best game of the season in Week 7 that included 7 targets. At his low (DK) salary value, I like his chances to make a splash in Week 8.

George Kittle (49ers-TE) With the 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel already ruled out, Kittle (fantasy TE8) can expect to see a greater share of targets in his Week 8 matchup with the Bengals. The Bengals defense allows the 7th most fantasy points and 3rd most touchdowns (4) to opposing tight ends this season. Kittle is due for a big day.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SATURDAY (FF) QUICK TAKES (WK8-2)

October 28, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Quick Takes

Jets vs Giants Matchup

The Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (fantasy WR23) has 32 receptions for 369 yards receiving and two touchdowns this season. Despite the inconsistent play at quarterback, Wilson remains a low-end WR-2 or flex play.

Jaguars vs Steelers Matchup

The Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr (fantasy RB5) has rushed for 504 yards with 7 touchdowns this season. Etienne Jr has also caught 24 passes for 196 yards receiving. Over the past three weeks Etienne has been the top fantasy running back, he’s locked in this week and should be a safe Top-10 fantasy RB.

Eagles vs Commanders Matchup

The Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (fantasy WR25) has caught 37 passes for 432 yards with one touchdown this season. A fringe WR-2 thus far this season, McLaurin has a friendly matchup this week with the Eagles 31st in fantasy against wide receivers.

Texans vs Panthers Matchup

The Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (fantasy QB17) has thrown for 1,660 yards (276.6/game) and tossed 9 touchdowns to one pick this season. Over his last three games Stroud has averaged more than 250 yards passing per game with 5 touchdowns. Sitting just outside the top-12 this week, he’s a strong play in 2-QB leagues.

Browns vs Seahawks Matchup

The Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker (fantasy RB8) has rushed for 450 yards this season, adding 7 touchdowns (6 run, 1 receive) and 13 receptions for 106 yards receiving. A full participant, Walker is good to go for Sunday and locked-in fantasy lineups.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 5th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

It may not be one of the marquee matchups of the NFL Thursday Night lineup, but this meeting between the Bears and Commanders will carry a bit of fantasy cache for owners. There are still plenty of fantasy favorites involved in this one and there is just enough lack of defense for this to be interesting.

The Commanders up front on the defensive side and going to have their hands full trying to contain the Bears quarterback Justin Fields. On the other side, after seeing how the Broncos were able to pass on the Bears secondary last week, the Commanders receivers could find great success. 

Neither defense has been stellar this season against the run, the Bears are ranked 18th while the Commanders are ranked 21st. While the Bears are ranked 8th in yards per carry average, the Commanders have struggled here ranked 26th, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. The Commanders backfield may struggle to find holes in the ground attack, but Khalil Herbert and company could enjoy a little running room.

With all of these keys to consider, here are the Five I will drive with, on Thursday Night,.

Thursday's Take Five;

1. Sam Howell (QB) - The Commanders quarterback is coming off strong showing last week against a pretty good Eagles defense and should be able to enjoy similar success tonight against the Bears 27th ranked pass defense. Howell has been a borderline QB-1 (12-team formats) in three of his four starts this season. The Bears allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, so the prospect of number four tonight looks good.

2. Terry McLaurin (WR) - Although his numbers may be slightly down through four weeks, the Commanders receiver is still one of the league’s best. Opposing receivers have had success finding the endzone against the Bears defense. McLaurin leads the team with 26 targets and 21 receptions (an 80.8% success rate). He’ll be featured tonight and should have success. (DK-My Captain)

3. Commanders (DST) - The Commanders defense is pretty good, but they have not played all that well this season. While the Bears offense is coming off a strong showing against the Broncos last week, it was the Broncos defense. The Commanders are in the top 3rd with 13 sacks, 29 QB hits, and 84 completions allowed this season and could give Fields trouble in the pocket. The defense also ranks 1st this season with 27 tackles for loss.

4. Justin Fields (QB) - It sounds like it could be a long day for Fields, but it just might be the opposite. With the troubles the Bears could have throwing the ball, look for Fields to exploit the defense with his legs. The Commanders have surrendered the third most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Expect Fields to do some damage on the ground and possibly visit the end zone.

5. Cole Kmet (TE) - The Bears tight end is tied for the team lead with 24 targets. He is easily one of Fields' favorites and dependable targets. He’s coming off a big game last week where he scored twice against the Broncos and some of that momentum could carry into tonight. I like Cole to find pay dirt in this one.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 4th, 2023

Monday Morning Edition

2023 Draft Day: On the Clock

(12-Team, PPR format, Fantasy Calculator ADP)

WR-Terry McLaurin, Current ADP 5.01 – The Commanders wide receiver finished as the No.23 fantasy receiver last season, finishing the year with 77 catches, 1,191 receiving yards and five scores. He’s currently coming off draft boards as WR26. An early 5th round pick of McLaurin is good value for fantasy owners.

TE-George Kittle, Current ADP 5.07 – Last season’s No.2 fantasy tight end, is Kittle being under-valued a bit in current fantasy drafts coming off the board as TE4. His last three Season finishes in fantasy have been TE2, TE6, and TE2. In 2022 Kittle finished the year with 60 receptions and 765 yards receiving, but it was his career high (11) receiving touchdowns that carried his fantasy value. A feat that could be tough to duplicate in 2023.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition
October 13th, 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

Start
QB-Case Keenum, WAS; Even though it’s a road test, Keenum will have one of his better matchups of the season, facing a Dolphins defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. If you need help at the QB spot, he’s a safe stream option today.

Sit
RB-Jordan Howard, PHI; The Eagles ball carrier faces a stiff matchup today against the Vikings 9th ranked run defense. The Vikings are only allowing 3.6 yards per carry and less than 90 yards total this season. Avoid Howard and look for safer options today.

Start
RB-Dalvin Cook, MIN; Despite the tough ground test today against the Eagles number one ranked run defense, Cook (No.3 fantasy running back) is getting utilized plenty in the pass game; 21 receptions and 200 receiving yards. The Eagles run defense has allowed 34 receptions (6th most) and 257 receiving yards (8th most) to opposing running backs. Cooks volume (averaging 22.6 touches per game) will make him a safe play today. 

Sit
WR-AJ Brown, TEN; The Titans receiver is coming off a quiet two catch effort in Week 5, but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect Brown to bounce back this week facing the league’s number 5 ranked pass defense. Avoid Brown today.

Start
WR-Terry McLaurin, WAS; With Case Keenum under center and the Dolphins secondary on the slate, a healthy McLaurin could be looking at big Sunday. Dolphins allow the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and McLaurin has been one of Keenum’s best weapons when on the field. McLaurin could be a boom play today.

Sit
TE-Jason Witten, DAL; Even with few viable options at the TE position, Witten is likely one to avoid this week. Witten has become more of a touchdown dependent option and faces a Jets defense this week that allows the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

That's My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Night Edition
October 12th 2019

DSF Saturday

[Week 6: My Lineup Faves]

QB-DeShaun Watson ($6,700); Over the last three weeks, Watson is the Number 2 fantasy quarterback in scoring with 937 yards passing (ranks 5th), 8 passing touchdowns (ranks 2nd), 74% completions (ranks 4th), and 129.46 passer rating (ranks 1st). Watson will face a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in total defense and could provide plenty of opportunity for another big Sunday.

RB-Mark Ingram II ($6,600); The Ravens running back is the No. 9 fantasy running back (PPR scoring) and is coming off back-to-back modest games in weeks 4 & 5. This Sunday Ingram will get his crack at a Bengals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past four weeks. He has a great chance to rebound in a big way.

RB-Chris Thompson ($5,000); The Redskins ball carrier ranks as the No. 23 fantasy running back (PPR scoring) through 5 weeks. Thompson ranks 4th among running backs with 35 targets, 6th with 25 receptions, and 3rd with 268 yards receiving. While the Dolphins have not surrendered a lot in the passing game to opposing running backs over the course of the season, in week 4 they were torched by the Chargers for 97 yards receiving and two scores.

WR-DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400); Hopkins is due and at his current salary, he plays as a nice stack with Watson. The Chiefs defense has been awful against the run this season, which could open some play action and create some opportunities for Hopkins to do some downfield damage. Hopkins 44 targets through 5 games ranks tied for 7th; he should see plenty of opportunity on Sunday.

WR-Terry McLaurin ($6,000); The Redskins-Dolphins matchup should showcase little defense and open up some potential big play opportunities for both sides. With the return of Case Keenum under center, McLaurin will have a great chance to exploit a Dolphins defense that has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers through five games.

WR-Preston Williams ($4,100); In the same matchup, the Dolphins passing game could finally get off the ground this week facing a Redskins defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. Williams the No. 58 fantasy receiver this season (PPR scoring) has been a target hog leading the team with 30; this Sunday he’s got a shot to move up the ranks. 

TE-Zach Ertz ($5,400); The Vikings defense has been solid this season against the pass, ranked 6th this season, but if there is a chink in the armor; they have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Ertz lead the team in targets with 45 and ranks 2nd in the league (among TEs). He’ll be a focal point in the pass game on Sunday.

Flex-Joe Mixon ($5,500); The Bengals running back will face a Ravens defense that has allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. At his current salary, Mixon is almost a must play.

DST-Redskins ($3,200); The Redskins are a value play, facing a turnover prone Dolphins offense this week.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition
September 29th 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

Week 4 matchups

The Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (QB4 according Fantasy Data) has been solid this season with the league’s 2nd highest passer rating 127.9 (minimum 2 starts), behind only Patrick Mahomes. His week 4 matchup pits him against the Saints defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Lock Dak up for another solid start in Week 4.

Through the first three weeks of the 2019 season, the Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (QB5 according to Fantasy Data) has been on a tear, averaging 300 yards passing and over 70 percent completions. His foe on Sunday is the Arizona Cardinals whose defense has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Wilson is a fantasy Road Warrior, start him.

The Chiefs will be bringing their Big Top Show to the Motor City this week and running LeSean “Shady” McCoy (RB19 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) will have a great matchup against a Lions defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs. McCoy is still nursing an ankle injury, but appears ready to go and should be a safe RB2 for Week 4.

The Lions running back Kerryon Johnson (RB22 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) should be a featured focal point of the offense on Sunday when the Chiefs roll into town. The Chiefs defense has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and Lions should be trying to play keep-away with Johnson. Through the first three weeks, Johnson is averaging 17.6 touches per game; he’s likely to see that total finish north of 20, start him.

The Redskins rookie wide receiver Terry McLaurin (WR11 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) leads the team with 24 targets through the first three weeks of the 2019 season. This weeks he’ll get his shot at the Giants secondary that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. As the team’s primary receiving threat, McLaurin should see plenty of opportunities on Sunday; he’s a WR2 play this week.

The Chargers are on the road this Sunday to take on the Dolphins in a matchup that could go south for the Phins early. The Dolphins rookie wide receiver Preston Williams (WR51 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) has been seeing a health share of targets (23) through the first three weeks of the season. If the Dolphins can stay competitive, Williams should be heavily involved and even if this one gets away, he could see a lot of garbage time points (they still count). He’s a bye-week plug or flex play this week.

The Lions rookie tight end TJ Hockenson (TE15 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) started out the 2019 season as a nice fantasy play with a monster opener in week one, but the past couple of weeks he’s been a bit of a disappointment. This week Hockenson draws the Chiefs defense that has allowed the 5th most points to opposing tight ends. The Chiefs have also allowed the most receptions to opposing tight ends which should afford Hockenson plenty of opportunities to produce. He’s a borderline TE1-TE2 this week.

The Broncos offense is need of a kickstart this week and their rookie tight end Noah Fant (TE25 according to Fantasy Data, PPR scoring) could be the one to provide the spark. Fant will face a Jaguars defense that has allowed the 6th most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. Fant’s 11 yards per reception, ranks him 12th amongst tight ends with minimum 10 targets this season. He’s a week 4 sleeper.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega