FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL FIXX

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Friday’s Saturday’s Fantasy Fixx

(My DFS Lineup - Week 9)

I love to play DFS every week, but I have yet to hit the Millionaire-maker. Until I do I’ll just keep throwing my hat in the ring and taking a shot. This week I went heavy with the backfield, relying on ball carriers with higher usage rate.

For Week 9, I will shoot with the following;

QB-Derek Carr (Saints) The Saints signal caller has been rolling lately with three straight games with 300+ yards passing. This week he has a home matchup with a 30th ranked Bears secondary.

RB-Jonathan Taylor (Colts) Last week Taylor started heating up with 95 yards rushing last week on 12 carries. This week's matchup against the looks great for 

RB-Aaron Jones (Packers) At home, Rams are going with a back-up quarterback, it’s the perfect storm to turn Jones loose. He’s only averaged 11 touches his last two games, turn him loose.

WR-Van Jefferson (Falcons) With Drake London ruled out for Week 9, the door is open for Jefferson to make an impact in the passing game. A change at quarterback this week may also serve well for Jefferson.

WR-Nico Collins (Texans) The Texans wideout is coming off a quiet Week 8 showing and has not made much noise since his Week 4 explosion against the Steelers. This week he faces a Buccaneers secondary that has struggled against receivers the past couple of games. Week 9 could be redemption for Collins.

WR- Terry McLaurin (Commanders) The Commanders leading receiver this season is averaging better than 10 targets per game over his last three. His target rate gives him a chance for a big game. 

TE-Cole Kmet (Bears) This pick is based on game script. The Bears receivers will likely draw the meat of the secondary. Kmet was targeted 10 times last week and in a matchup that could see the Bears trailing on the road, Kmet could see similar usage.

RB-Alvin Kamara (Saints) This season Kamara has been incredibly safe this season with a higher floor than most. He leads all backfields this season in touches per game and has a very good matchup this week against the Bears who struggle with pass catching running backs, most receiving yards allowed this season.

DST-Browns. The Browns defense has been consistent and one of the safest plays this season. They are home this week against a Cardinals offense that will have a rookie QB making his first career start.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

October 15th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

FF Quick Notes for Week 6

Justin Fields (QB)

The Bears quarterback has been sizzling the last two weeks throwing for 617 yards and tossing 8 touchdowns with one pick. He’s also added 82 yards rushing, while scoring over 30 fantasy points per game.

David Montgomery (RB)

The Lions running back has rushed for 230 yards and scored 4 rushing touchdowns on 51 carries in his last two games. He has also recorded 4 receptions for another 40 yards. He has scored 55 fantasy points (ppr) combined in the two games, which ranks 2nd behind only Christian McCaffrey.

Travis Etienne Jr (RB)

The Jaguars running back has been churning out the yards the past two weeks, 256 yards of offense. He rushed for 191 yards (46 carries) and added 65 yards receiving (7 receptions) while recording two (rushing) touchdowns.

DJ Moore (WR)

No receiver has been hotter than the Bears wideout over the past two weeks. Moore has totaled 16 receptions (ranks 4th), for 361 receiving yards (ranks 1st), on 19 targets (ranks 10th). Moore has also added 4 receiving touchdowns, which ranks tied for the most by receivers for the past two weeks.

Adam Thielen (WR)

The Panthers wide receiver has been getting it done quietly under the radar. Over the past four weeks Thielen has caught 36 passes, for 382 yards and three scores, ranking as the fantasy WR4.

Cole Kmet (TE)

The Bears tight end has been solid for fantasy managers over the past couple of weeks, scoring in two straight games. He’s the fantasy TE2, recording 12 receptions (on 14 targets) for 127 yards receiving, with three touchdowns in his last two games.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

October 5th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

It may not be one of the marquee matchups of the NFL Thursday Night lineup, but this meeting between the Bears and Commanders will carry a bit of fantasy cache for owners. There are still plenty of fantasy favorites involved in this one and there is just enough lack of defense for this to be interesting.

The Commanders up front on the defensive side and going to have their hands full trying to contain the Bears quarterback Justin Fields. On the other side, after seeing how the Broncos were able to pass on the Bears secondary last week, the Commanders receivers could find great success. 

Neither defense has been stellar this season against the run, the Bears are ranked 18th while the Commanders are ranked 21st. While the Bears are ranked 8th in yards per carry average, the Commanders have struggled here ranked 26th, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. The Commanders backfield may struggle to find holes in the ground attack, but Khalil Herbert and company could enjoy a little running room.

With all of these keys to consider, here are the Five I will drive with, on Thursday Night,.

Thursday's Take Five;

1. Sam Howell (QB) - The Commanders quarterback is coming off strong showing last week against a pretty good Eagles defense and should be able to enjoy similar success tonight against the Bears 27th ranked pass defense. Howell has been a borderline QB-1 (12-team formats) in three of his four starts this season. The Bears allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, so the prospect of number four tonight looks good.

2. Terry McLaurin (WR) - Although his numbers may be slightly down through four weeks, the Commanders receiver is still one of the league’s best. Opposing receivers have had success finding the endzone against the Bears defense. McLaurin leads the team with 26 targets and 21 receptions (an 80.8% success rate). He’ll be featured tonight and should have success. (DK-My Captain)

3. Commanders (DST) - The Commanders defense is pretty good, but they have not played all that well this season. While the Bears offense is coming off a strong showing against the Broncos last week, it was the Broncos defense. The Commanders are in the top 3rd with 13 sacks, 29 QB hits, and 84 completions allowed this season and could give Fields trouble in the pocket. The defense also ranks 1st this season with 27 tackles for loss.

4. Justin Fields (QB) - It sounds like it could be a long day for Fields, but it just might be the opposite. With the troubles the Bears could have throwing the ball, look for Fields to exploit the defense with his legs. The Commanders have surrendered the third most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. Expect Fields to do some damage on the ground and possibly visit the end zone.

5. Cole Kmet (TE) - The Bears tight end is tied for the team lead with 24 targets. He is easily one of Fields' favorites and dependable targets. He’s coming off a big game last week where he scored twice against the Broncos and some of that momentum could carry into tonight. I like Cole to find pay dirt in this one.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE WEDNESDAY WATERCOOLER

September 13th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Wednesday Evening Edition

The Wednesday Watercooler

Targets Equal Opportunities

In fantasy football luck plays its part, but success is all about chances. You can’t win if you don’t have the ball and your dudes can’t score fantasy points if they don’t have a chance.

Here are the weekly leaders for Receiving Targets;

Week 1

Top 5 WR

1. Tyreek Hill (15)

2. Puka Nacua (15)

3. Stefon Diggs (13)

4. DeAndre Hopkins (13)

5. Justin Jefferson (12)

Stefon Diggs displayed why he’s an elite receiver in the NFL turning in another 100-yard receiving performance with 10 receptions and a score. He will finish as a Top-5 fantasy receiver in 2023 at this pace.

Top 5 TE

1. Zach Ertz (10)

2. TJ Hockenson (9)

3. Logan Thomas (8)

4. Hayden Hurst (7)

5. Cole Kmet (7)

The overall production was a bit light, but with the10 targets on Sunday tight end Zach Ertz could easily bounce back and very soon. The Cardinals air attack may continue to stall a bit here in the early season, but as long the volume is there Ertz could be fantasy relevant soon.

Top 5 RB

1. Roschon Johnson (7)

2. Ezekiel Elliott (7)

3. Bijan Robinson (6)

4. Rhamondre Stevenson (6)

5. James Cook (6)

Running back James Cook was lead back on Monday night and dominated the Bills backfield in snaps and touches. He’s a big play waiting to happen and as long as this volume continues, he’s in line for some big games in the future.

Touches Are Fantasy Gold

Just like a receiver needs to be targeted, a running backs success leans heavily on how many times they touch (carries + catches) the rock.

Here are the weekly Touch leaders;

Week 1

Top 5 RB

1. Christian McCaffrey (25)

2. Travis Etienne Jr (23)

3. Nick Chubb (22)

4. Cam Akers (22)

5. Miles Sanders (22)

Cam Akers was ineffective on Sunday against the Seahawks only totaling 29 yards on the ground, but you can't ignore his usage. Despite the tough treading, the Rams stayed with Akers. His 22 carries ranked tied for the most in week 1 and with that kind of work, fantasy owners can expect better outputs from Akers (so long as the workload continues).

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega