FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL FIXX

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

Friday’s Saturday’s Fantasy Fixx

(My DFS Lineup - Week 9)

I love to play DFS every week, but I have yet to hit the Millionaire-maker. Until I do I’ll just keep throwing my hat in the ring and taking a shot. This week I went heavy with the backfield, relying on ball carriers with higher usage rate.

For Week 9, I will shoot with the following;

QB-Derek Carr (Saints) The Saints signal caller has been rolling lately with three straight games with 300+ yards passing. This week he has a home matchup with a 30th ranked Bears secondary.

RB-Jonathan Taylor (Colts) Last week Taylor started heating up with 95 yards rushing last week on 12 carries. This week's matchup against the looks great for 

RB-Aaron Jones (Packers) At home, Rams are going with a back-up quarterback, it’s the perfect storm to turn Jones loose. He’s only averaged 11 touches his last two games, turn him loose.

WR-Van Jefferson (Falcons) With Drake London ruled out for Week 9, the door is open for Jefferson to make an impact in the passing game. A change at quarterback this week may also serve well for Jefferson.

WR-Nico Collins (Texans) The Texans wideout is coming off a quiet Week 8 showing and has not made much noise since his Week 4 explosion against the Steelers. This week he faces a Buccaneers secondary that has struggled against receivers the past couple of games. Week 9 could be redemption for Collins.

WR- Terry McLaurin (Commanders) The Commanders leading receiver this season is averaging better than 10 targets per game over his last three. His target rate gives him a chance for a big game. 

TE-Cole Kmet (Bears) This pick is based on game script. The Bears receivers will likely draw the meat of the secondary. Kmet was targeted 10 times last week and in a matchup that could see the Bears trailing on the road, Kmet could see similar usage.

RB-Alvin Kamara (Saints) This season Kamara has been incredibly safe this season with a higher floor than most. He leads all backfields this season in touches per game and has a very good matchup this week against the Bears who struggle with pass catching running backs, most receiving yards allowed this season.

DST-Browns. The Browns defense has been consistent and one of the safest plays this season. They are home this week against a Cardinals offense that will have a rookie QB making his first career start.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 9 FIRE & ICE

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

FF Week 9: Fire & Ice Report

Through Eight weeks of NFL action there have been plenty of players up and down throughout the season, heading into this Sunday. Fantasy studs like AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill continue to trend in the right direction and while others like Deebo Samuel are struggling to stay on the field. With less than 12 hours until NFL Sunday Week 9 kickoff, this is a short list of some of my notables that are either heating up or cooling down or (on) Fire or Ice (cold).

Fire

The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (fantasy QB20) has been on a roll lately. Last week Burrow passed for nearly 300 yards, completing a career high 87.5% of his passes going 28 of 32, with three touchdowns. Over his last three games Burrow has averaged 261.7 yards passing, completing 76.3% of his 113 passes, and tossed 8 touchdowns. With a Sunday night matchup at home against the Bills, he's a fantasy lock for Week 9.

The Jets second year running back Breece Hall (fantasy RB15) looks to be firing on all pistons as he rolls into a Week 9 matchup on Monday night with the Chargers. Hall is coming off a solid Week 8 showing in the pass game, bringing in 6 passes for 76 yards and a 50-yard touchdown reception. Through his last three games Hall has been the fantasy RB4 averaging 77.7 yards rushing on 15+ carries per game. He’s also been terrific in the passing game adding 14 receptions for 147 yards receiving and three touchdowns (1 receive, 2 run) during this stretch. Hall is a must-start for Week 9.

Ravens running back Gus Edwards (fantasy RB30) has been hot of late, coming off a spectacular Week 8 performance with three rushing touchdowns. Edwards is averaging 61.7 yards rushing and 35.3 yards receiving over his last three games with most of the damage being fueled by his two most recent games. With a home tilt in Week 9 against a tough Seahawks defense he’s still a solid flex consideration for Week 9.

The rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison (fantasy WR11) has been the guy in Minnesota the past several games in absence of Justin Jefferson. In his past two games he’s been heavily targeted (averaging 9 per) registering 14 receptions for  205 yards and three scores. He has actually scored a touchdown in four straight games averaging 8 targets, 5.8 receptions, 74.2 yards receiving, with 5 receiving touchdowns. He’s a must-start this week against a Falcons secondary that has surrendered 5 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers the past two weeks.

Colts rookie wide receiver Josh Downs (fantasy WR37) has been trending in the right direction the past several weeks. For the past four straight weeks, he has seen no fewer than 6 targets per game. During his last three contests, Downs has caught 17 passes for 218 yards receiving and two touchdowns. After the success he has had in back-to-back games against the Browns and Saints, Downs faces a tough Carolina defense on Sunday, but he belongs in lineups.

The Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (fantasy TE12) has arrived. Kincaid is coming off consecutive games with at least 7 targets, 5 receptions, and 65 yards receiving. The Bills are one of the best offenses in the NFL and with his teammate Dawson Know on the IR, Kincaid should remain one of the primary weapons of the passing game behind (Stefon) Diggs. With a Sunday night Matchup with the Bengals on the calendar, Vegas has this contest pegged as the highest scoring affair in Week 9, fantasy managers can turn, and his name is Dalton (Kincaid), loose.

The Browns tight end David Njoku (fantasy TE12) has been quietly warming up. Njoku is averaging double-digit fantasy points over his last three games and in his last two, he has seen his target share and productivity increase significantly. With 17 targets in his last two contests Njoku has 9 receptions for 131 yards receiving and a score. The Browns will have quarterback Deshaun Watson back under center on Sunday and a home matchup with the Cardinals make Njoku a serviceable TE-1 this week. The Cardinals are allowing more than 10 fantasy points (ppr format) to TE-1 this season.

Ice

The Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (fantasy QB16) started out the season hot, but he has cooled off quite a bit over the past several weeks. In his past three starts, Stroud is only completing 55.2% of his passes and has thrown only three touchdowns.  He has a home matchup with the Buccaneers this week and although Tampa has struggled lately allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks for the past four weeks, Stroud is a sit this week in seasonal leagues, but remains a consideration in DFS.

The Packers running back Aaron Jones (fantasy RB30) has been on ice since returning from injury in Week 4. After missing Week 5, he returned in Week 7 following the team’s bye, but he’s basically been on a pitch count the past couple of weeks, splitting snaps with AJ Dillon, and has not done much. In his last two games he’s averaging 11 touches for 52.5 yards per game. Until Jones is healthy, he’s best left on your bench.

The Chiefs wide receivers Kadarius Toney (fantasy WR95) & Skyy Moore (fantasy WR88) entered the 23 season with much promise being a part of an offense anchored by quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In their last three games, Toney has 5 catches (8 targets) for 26 yards and a score, while Moore has totaled 5 receptions (10 targets) for 45 yards. Through 8 weeks this season, neither has done much of anything to even warrant a roster spot.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING (WK 8)

October 30th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Monday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting 

(Week 8 Takeaways)

After spending the whole day (as I usually do) on Sunday watching all the games, I came away with a few questions and observations. These are some of the things I think are worth noting.

1. Another Offensive dud from the Packers.

A lot of fingers will point at quarterback Jordan Love and for good reason, but I am not going to pile on. Sure there have been some mistakes and bad throws, but I also believe a big contributing factor to the Packers bad play can be correlated to ultra conservative and predictable play calling to open the game and the absence and non-use of running back Aaron Jones. Described as one of the most explosive running backs in the game, he is only averaging 11 touches per game his last two games.Until Jones is featured more prominently in the offense, it could tough treading for the Pack’s offense moving forward.

2. D-Hop still has plenty of Pop.

Give him a calm, cool, collected quarterback with poise in the pocket and Hopkins will give you a big-time game in return. That’s what happened on Sunday as Hopkins was the recipient of some very good quarterback play from rookie Will Levis. Hopkins only needed 4 catches to do serious damage in Week 8; 4 receptions for 128 yards receiving and three touchdowns. As long as he remains healthy, if he gets close to this type of QB play he’s a borderline WR-1 in the 2nd half of the season.

3. The Giants offense is awful.

I actually have a couple of takeaways from the Battle for New York. First, the Giants passing game was atrocious. Some may excuse it due to bad weather, but it’s been bad all season. Through 8 games this season, the Giants have just 4 passing touchdowns. Until we see great improvement, it’s best to avoid this catastrophe. 

Along with the offense, tight end Darren Waller left the game early on Sunday with a hamstring injury. Waller has been boom or bust and dealing with injuries most of the season. This is another situation best to avoid until Waller is 100%.

4. Javonte Williams is back.

The Broncos running back is coming off an ACL injury in Week 4 of last year and while there have been a few signs here and there throughout this season, Williams finally showed he is back on Sunday. Williams didn’t break any stat records, but he did put in a lot of work. Williams carried the rock 27 times and finished the day with a career high 30 touches for 98 total yards. Williams ran hard and looked like his pre-injury self. Next up, the big game.

5. Joe Cool is heating up.

With a tough road matchup with San Francisco on Sunday, Joe Burrow and the Bengals rolled into town and then rolled the Niners. Burrow has been heating up of late, with 8 touchdowns passes over his last three, leading the Bengals to three straight wins, including 4 of 5. With his wide receiver Tee Higgins returning close to form and Ja’Marr Chase doing what he does, Burrow could just be getting started.

6. The Return of Austin Ekeler.

The Chargers running back two games removed from his return from injury, looked like the old Ekeler fantasy managers have come to expect. After averaging 54 yards and 16.5 touches with no scores his past two games, Ekeler turned up huge Sunday night against the Bears. The Chargers ball carrier totaled 23 touches (15 carries, 8 catches) for 123 yards of offense (29 run, 94 receive) with a touchdown. Ekeler was a featured part of the pass game and was more than effective, something fantasy managers hope to see continue going forward.

That’s My Take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: 10 THINGS FOR NFL SUNDAY

October 22nd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

10 Things for Sunday

We are getting closer to the season’s mid-point and the Byes are flexing this week with six teams out. Despite the fewer games, this week should provide plenty of fireworks, lots of scoring, and fantasy points much to the delight of fantasy managers. As we look over the slate of games today, what’s has your attention?

Here are the 10 quick questions or things on my mind.

1. Is this the Josh Jacobs Breakout game?

The Raiders running back certainly looks primed to breakout. He’s averaging the second most touches of all running backs over the last three weeks, including the most carries (20+) and second most receptions with 5 per game. The production has yet to catch up, but the workload certainly appears to be there. It’s a good matchup today and a chance for Jacobs to have a big day.

2. Can Diggs do it again?

I say yes. The Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs has been on quite a heater of late. He’s managed to record at least 100 yards receiving in four straight games with at least 6 catches. For the season Diggs has hit the century mark 5 of 6 games and scored 19 or more fantasy points in those contests. Last year Diggs, in two games, averaged 7.0 receptions, 98.0 yards receiving, and 1.0 touchdowns. Someone queue the Brittany Spears jam.

3. Is Barkley healthy and ready to roll?

Last week against the Bills on Sunday night, down the stretch Barkley showed some flash with a couple nifty runs. He looked a lot like the Week 2 Barkley we saw earlier this season. I believe he’s ready to roll and could have success today against the Commanders who allow better than 4.5 yards per carry this season.

4. Can Mayfield Shake n Bake on Sunday?

This is more of a hunch than anything else. I like the home matchup against the Falcons defense, who have recorded the 5th fewest sacks and allowed the 5th most passing touchdowns. I am thinking Baker to Evans for six in this one.

5. Will Flowers bloom on Sunday?

We are getting closer to the winter season, but that shouldn’t matter for the Ravens rookie receiver. Over the past two weeks his targets per game at Top-12, so he should see plenty of opportunities today to put up decent numbers. Continue to trust the bloom of Flowers.

6. Is the third game a charm for Kupp?

The Rams receiver has looked great in his return totaling 15 receptions for 266 yards receiving and a touchdown. I love this matchup this week against the Steelers (ranked 25th against the pass) and expect Kupp to have another big game. Third time is always a charm.

7. Can Walker make it 5 in a row?

I say Kenneth Walker can score a rushing touchdown today to make it 5 straight games. He’s not compiling huge yardage numbers, but his 6 rushing scores this season have him elevated to the No.8 fantasy RB slot. Facing the Cardinals 24th ranked run defense Walker will have a chance to improve his rushing numbers (345 yards this season) as well as his touchdowns.

8. Is Sunday time for the Hollywood Shuffle?

The Cardinals primary receiver has been targeted heavily (31 times) the last three weeks heading into Sunday’s matchup with the Seahawks. The Seahawks rank 28th against the pass and allow the most fantasy points to opposing receivers. This one is lining up to be a big day for Hollywood Brown.

9. Can Aaron Jones run wild against the Broncos?

The Packers running back says he feels good and should be ready to go against the Broncos. The Mile High defense has been absent all season allowing the most yards on the ground and yards per carry this season. Jones is a dual threat out of the backfield and could be in for a big day leading the Packers backfield.

10. Can Swift shine on Sunday night?

After his blow up performance in Week 2, the Eagles running back has steadily been returning to earth. His fantasy numbers (No.12 fantasy RB for the season) are still very good, but today’s matchup with the Dolphins, offers a great opportunity. The Phins have allowed the 9th most rushing yards to running backs and those numbers should climb even more today.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega 

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

October 20th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Late-Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 7: Best Matchups/Plays)

With an exciting Thursday night game just concluded, could this be a preclude of what is to come this weekend? Fantasy managers can only hope for it as we all try to navigate our fantasy lineups through a heavy dose of byes this week. 

The Thursday night matchup did bring a little relief for many as there were plenty of fantasy winning plays last night. If you had Alvin Kamara (29.3 fantasy points), Travis Etienne Jr (22.7 fantasy points), and Christian Kirk (19 fantasy points), you had to be happy with their outcomes. Even both quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence and Derek Carr, were serviceable along with the Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13.2 points) and the Jaguars tight end Evan Engram (9.5 points).

Looking forward to this weekend, which players will bring fantasy delight to our lineups? These are some of the plays that I believe will bring more solace to our Week 7 fantasy matchups. They can also work for your DFS plays.

Geno Smith (Seahawks-QB) It’s been a bit of an up and down season for Smith and the Seahawks, but a home tilt should bring some good home cooking and strong play. The Cardinals defense is allowing the 5th most fantasy points and 4th most passing yards to quarterbacks and this could be just what the fantasy doctor ordered.

Kenneth Walker (Seahawks-RB) The Seahawks running back has been on a roll, scoring at least one rushing touchdown in four straight games. He’ll have a great shot at number five facing a Cardinals defense that’s allowing over 5 yards per carry for the last four weeks. Expect another solid outing for Walker this week.

Aaron Jones (Packers-RB) Coming off the bye, Aaron Jones could finally be healthy enough to return to the Week 1 form when he totaled 127 yards and scored twice. The timing could not be any better, in a Week 7 road tilt facing a Broncos defense that has been the worst against the run and has allowed 8 rushing touchdowns. Expect a score or two for Jones on Sunday.

Rashee Rice (Chiefs-WR) The rookie receiver seems to be trending more and more towards becoming a reliable receiving option in the Chiefs passing game. Rice has averaged 4.5 targets, 4 receptions, 52.5 yards receiving, and .5 touchdowns the past two weeks and has seen a 46% or more snap share in 3 of his last four games. In Week 6 Rice finished third among the Chiefs receivers with 35 snaps. Facing the Chargers this week, this one feels like a breakout game. 

Curtis Samuel (Commanders-WR) The Commanders wide receiver has been steady the last three weeks, he’s the fantasy WR12, with 17 catches, 15 yards receiving, and two touchdowns. Up next for Samuel is the Giants secondary that has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over the past 4 weeks.

Tyler Lockett (Seahawks-WR) The Seahawks receiver is off the injury report and ready to take advantage of the Cardinals defense that has allowed the 4th most fantasy points and 2nd most reception to opposing receivers the last 4 weeks.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons-TE) The Falcons 3rd year tight end has been starting to come alive the past couple of weeks. In his last two games Pitts has caught 11 passes for 130 yards receiving, and one score. His recent production has him flirting with fantasy starter status. Pitts feels like a safe play in this one, being featured as much as he has, 17 targets over the past two weeks.

Saquon Barkley (Giants-RB) After seeing Barkley (28 touches) finish up the Sunday night game against the Bills in Week 6, his health is trending in the right direction as he faces a familiar foe he’s had past success against. Barkley should see a full workload once again and could be in for a highly productive afternoon.

Seahawks (DST) This Seahawks defense has been one of the better scoring defenses (2nd) the past four weeks, with 19 sacks and 7 takeaways. At home this week, this defense is a safe play.

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FF SOMETHING WORTH NOTING

October 3rd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football: Something Worth Noting

With week 4 in the books, a quick look back at what transpired might offer some hints as to what is to come and what could be. I don’t have a crystal ball nor am I able to read any tea leaves, but after watching the games on NFL Sunday week 4, I can offer some observations to consider moving forward.

Raheem Mostert fumbles twice

It’s interesting to note the two fumbles, considering the rookie De’Von Achane’s star is not only on the rise, but it is a fireball barreling towards earth. Achane has been an explosive and dominant runner. Achane has been a part of the rotation the past two weeks and has totaled 304 yards rushing; his season total of 309 yards leads the AFC. He has been the dynamite in the Dolphins backfield, with the loudest bang. I am not a betting man, but I would be willing to wager that week 5, it will be Achane getting some early work and dominating the usage on the ground. 

McLaughlin effective on Sunday

For the Broncos, not a lot has been going right for them this season, but they did squeak out a win in week 4. And although their starting running back Javonte Williams exited the game with a hip injury, the Broncos found a silver lining in rookie Jaleel McLaughlin. The rookie runner finished the week as the fantasy RB10, registering 104 yards of offense, averaging over 10-yards per touch. He was more than an effective fill-in, and after playing as well as he did McLaughlin has likely worked himself into a fixed role in the offense, and even greater should Williams miss any time. He’ll be hot pick up off the Waiver wire this week.

Jones on pitch count

Last week Packers running back Aaron Jones was obviously on a pitch count playing in just 20 snaps (35.1% of the available snaps). His appearance last week was a disaster for fantasy owners that were not aware of the snap count limitation. Jones totaled just 14 yards with one reception for the evening. Fantasy owners will need to see him back as a full participant in practice before they can trust him on Sunday. Since the Packers played on Thursday, Jones will have a few extra days to continue to heal up and return closer to 100%.

Cam Akers runs well in cameo appearance

There wasn’t much to note in the Vikings matchup with Carolina on Sunday. A non-prolific day for Cousins and the passing game, but of course even when Kirk struggles, Justin Jefferson still has a JJ Fantasy day. In the backfield however, it is worth noting one of the newest Vikings, running back Cam Akers, did see the field. Akers was on the field for 14 snaps and was featured in half with 7 touches, averaging over 7 yards per touch. It’s too early to make much of this, especially since starting running back Alexander Mattison had another solid outing. For now Akers is worth stashing as a cuff to Alexander.

Jonnu is more productive

The Falcons tight end Jonnu Smith (20 targets in 2023) has been a fantasy surprise this season. While he pitched a donut in week one, he has been a Top-10 fantasy tight end since, overshadowing his teammate Kyle Pitts (21 targets in 2023). Over the past three weeks, Smith has caught 15 passes (ranks tied for 3rd most among tight ends) and registered 179 receiving yards (ranks 3rd most). During this span Smith has been the fantasy TE8, while Pitts is fantasy 29. For the season Smith has more receptions and yards receiving (than Pitts) and should be the tight end owned in fantasy. 

Olave just one catch on Sunday

The Saints offense just looked bad on Sunday and it was apparent that quarterback Derek Carr was not quite right. As a result wide receiver Chris Olave was a non-factor in week 4, being targeted six times and recording a single catch for 4 yards. Fantasy owners can’t afford to sit Olave (just too much talent and ceiling there), so they need to check the practice reports on Carr this week. He needs to be healthy before they can expect Olave to return to his rightful place among fantasy starters.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY NIGHT MATCHUP

September 28th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup: DFS Faves

Tonight’s matchup offers a lot of interesting perspectives, the possible return of running back Aaron Jones, the debut of wide receiver Christian Watson and the arrival of rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Regardless of whichever you might find most intriguing, all of them will have some kind of fantasy impact in tonight’s matchup.

Aaron Jones looked dynamic and explosive in week one, but a bum hammy has had him sitting out the team’s last two games. If he’s 100% and ready to roll, he could feast in this matchup against the Lions defense (ranked 25th in passing vs RBs).

Christian Watson is slated to make his debut and if he’s good to go, he could add the explosiveness and deep threat the Packers offense is missing. With 7 passing touchdowns (ranked T3rd) this season, the addition of Watson will only give quarterback Jordan Love more options to beat a defense ranked 17th vs opposing QBs.

LaPorta has been terrific this season, currently the No.2 fantasy tight end. His 22 targets ranks second among tight ends while his 18 receptions also ranks tied for 2nd. He’ll easily be a featured target in this one and could be in for a big night.

These would be just a few of the storylines in this one and with that said, these are my favorite plays for DFS.

Thursday’s Take Five;

1. Jordan Love (QB) - I have to play the hot hand. Love has 8 total touchdowns this season, 7 pass, 1 run, tied with Tua Tagovailoa and second to Kirk Cousins 9. He gets a couple of big weapons back in Jones and Christian Watson and with the strong play of receivers Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed, I feel very strong about this play. (DK-My Captain)

2.Jahmyr Gibbs (QB) - The Lions rookie runner should be busy in the pass game out of the backfield, an area where the Packers have allowed the 3rd most receiving yards to opposing running backs. Gibbs should also handle a fair share of the ground work, especially if Montgomery sits or is less than 100%.

3. Romeo Doubs (WR) - I believe the Lions secondary numbers are a bit skewed. We’ve seen the receiving situation in Kansas City and last week the Falcons receivers were awful. The Packers don’t have the likes of Adams, but with the return of Aaron Jones and Christian Watson and the recent play of Doubs and rookie receiver Jayden Reed, the Pack should have success airing it out. Doubs is tied with Reed for the team lead in targets with 20 and is tied with the rookie tied Luke Musgrave with 11 receptions. Doubs should see plenty of work and should benefit with the presence of Watson on the field.

4. Amon-Ra St.Brown (WR) - The Lions leading receiver has been consistent all three weeks, injury or not. He’s averaging 9+ targets per game and has eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark, twice in three games. I can’t see him not delivering tonight. He should see a steady diet of targets throughout the evening and will certainly post his standard 6 for 80. And I’d say he’s due to find pay dirt in this one as well. 

5.Sam LaPorta (TE) - The Lions rookie tight end has been gold for fantasy owners through the first three weeks. He ranks second in targets (22), tied for second in receptions (18), and is the fantasy TE3. Just like St.Brown, the rookie should be a focal point in the Lion’s passing attack and could have a busy night.

A notable consideration for tonight’s matchup has to be the Packers rookie tight Musgrave. I believe the return of Jones and Watson tonight will cut into his workload in the air, but the kid should be an effective option in the red zone with his 6-foot, 6-inch frame.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WINS

September 26th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Wins!

(NFL Week 3)

This is always one of the fun parts following the weekend, when I can look back at my successes. There will always be those players locked-in your lineups, but I consider some of these players as those that may or may not be in lineups; and they should be and shouldn’t be.

Cousins is fantasy gold.

QB-Kirk Cousins (QB4) - Despite the team’s lack of success in the win column, as long as Cousins is the starter and he has Justin Jefferson available, he’s a must-start in fantasy. The guy has been pure fantasy gold, finishing in the top each of the first three weeks.

The Cowboys running back continues to play like a star.

RB-Tony Pollard (RB13) - The Cowboys running back has been a star thus far this season. On Sunday he turned in another solid performance rushing for 122 yards. For the season Pollard is the fantasy RB9.

As expected, another quiet day.

RB-AJ Dillon (RB52) - The Packers desperately need Aaron Jones back. In the two games without Jones, Dillon has been a dud. In the two games without Jones available, Dillon has finished outside the Top-50 fantasy running backs. He belongs on your bench for the time being.

The Jets passing game is non-existent.

WR-Allen Lazard (WR59) - The Jets wide receiver caught three balls for 39 yards on Sunday. As long as the offense struggles, Lazard is going to remain fantasy irrelevant. For the season he’s fantasy receiver No.73. He can be dropped.

The Chiefs receiver room is a mess.

WR-Kadarius Toney (WR100) - The Chiefs wideout has clearly been a disappointment thus far this season. It’s still early in the season and his quarterback is Patrick Mahomes, but sitting at fantasy WR102 with just 7 catches for 35 yards to this point, he can’t be trusted. It’s safe to drop him.

The Texans rookie continues to play well.

WR-Tank Dell (WR6) - The Texans rookie wide receiver was big on Sunday, recording 5 receptions for 145 yards, including a 68-yard touchdown reception. This was the second straight week Dell has finished as a Top-20 fantasy receiver. He's a must-start at this point.

Another quiet day for Titans tight end

TE-Chigozeim Okonkwo (TE25) - The Titans 2nd year tight end is off to a slow start this season. On Sunday was more of the same, catching three passes for 7 yards. For the season, with just 10 targets in three games Okonkwo sits at fantasy TE44. He shouldn’t be owned and not worth streaming.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY'S HEROES WEEK 1

September 11th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Monday Evening Edition

NFL Sunday Week 1:

Sunday Heroes

QB,Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) - The Dolphins quarterback seemed to put to rest any doubts about his ability to lead this offense and be The Guy. On opening Sunday, Tua threw for an incredible 466 yards and tossed three touchdowns to lead the Phins to a come-from-behind week one road win. Tua completed 28 of 45 passes (62.2% completion) and posted a 110.5 passer rating, finishing as the number fantasy Quarterback in week 1.

RB, Aaron Jones (Packers) - The Packers running back finished opening Sunday as the number one fantasy running back, totaling 127 yards (41 rush, 86 rec) of offense. He added (2) receptions on (4) targets and two touchdowns (1 run, 1 catch) on the day with an incredible average of 11.5 yards gained per touch.

WR, Tyreek Hill (Dolphins) - Cheetah showed everyone on Sunday, why he’s one of the best receivers in today’s game. The Phins receiver posted Madden-like numbers versus the Chargers, catching 11 passes, for 215 yards receiving, and two receiving touchdowns. Hill was Mr.Fantasy on Sunday, posting 44.5 fantasy points (ppr format) to lead all of fantasy.

TE, Hunter Henry (Patriots) - In case some forgot, the Patriots tightend Hunter Henry is still a very good pass-catching tight end. Henry was targeted six times, hauling in 5 balls for 56 yards receiving, and a score to lead all tight ends (ppr format).

IDP, TJ Watt (Steelers) - The Steelers linebacker, TJ Watt wrecked havoc on Sunday causing commotion and destruction to the Niners backfield. Despite the losing effort by the Steelers, Watt left it all out on the field yesterday, turning in three sacks, 5 solo tackles, 2 forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and one pass-defense. He led all IDPs in scoring.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 2nd, 2023

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

2023 Draft Day Watch

As you are preparing for your imminent fantasy draft, you should  be thinking about what players will fall to your spot throughout the draft and be prepared to adjust on the fly as picks from left field occur.

The Draft is not a sprint, it’s a marathon and you should not be playing checkers, but more like chess as you make your selections and navigate your way to your perfect draft.

As the draft gets started, if you are in position with an early pick, one of the first two running backs you need to be looking at is Austin Ekeler. Ekeler was the No.1 fantasy scoring running back in 2022 and has played in 33 of the teams past 34 games. With 107 receptions last season he is the premiere fantasy ppr receiving back.

Where people are currently ranking wide receiver Davante Adams, he’s a great early to mid 2nd round or beyond pick. Adams has been prolific his past three seasons and even if his numbers take a slight hit with a new quarterback in Las Vegas, he’s still a top 5 or 6 fantasy receiver. In the 2nd round he is coming off most boards as the WR9.

A little further into your draft, you can look for the Browns Amari Cooper to be available in the 3rd round to pair up with your Adams pick. Cooper is coming off a strong 2022 season where he finished as the No.15 fantasy receiver grabbing 78 balls for 1,160 yards receiving and 9 touchdowns. In 2022 Cooper only had his quarterback DeShaun Watson for six games. With a full camp under their belts, Cooper is a strong candidate to make a jump forward.

The Packers running back Aaron Jones was last season's No.11 fantasy running back and he’s currently being drafted as the RB16 around the mid-4th round. Last season Jones totaled over 1,500 yards of offense and scored 7 total touchdowns in 2022, very reachable numbers in 2023.

In a new city and a new opportunity, the whispers coming out of the New York Giants training camp about their starting tight end Darren Waller are getting louder. Waller had a down year in 2022 playing in only 9 games, but he was still scoring as a Top-10 fantasy tight end. He’s in a new place and certainly has the talent to be a Top-5 Fantasy, just as he was in 2020, when he finished as the No.2 fantasy tight end. He’s currently coming off draft boards as an early 6th round pick, but he’s moving up.

Steelers wide receiver George Pickens' star is on the rise this season. He finished 2022 as the No.45 fantasy receiver, but there’s no question about his talent and ability, he just needs the opportunity. Pickens was targeted just 84 times last season, a number he will surely surpass in 2023. Currently coming off the draft boards as the WR34, he is an early 7th round pick.

As we truck along into the mid-rounds of your draft a possible steal also in the 7th round could be quarterback DeShaun Watson. Watson returned to action in 2022 after sitting out the entire 2021 season. He only played six games last season, but it was enough to shake the rust. If he regains his 2020 form (finished as the No.5 fantasy QB), he’s the 9th quarterback coming off the board in round 7th, VALUE. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 28th, 2023

Monday Evening Edition

On My Radar: Draft Day Targets

Now that the draft season has heated up, it’s time to talk about my Draft Day targets. These are the players that I will be looking to take at the right time during my several upcoming drafts. I want value, but I am also looking for opportunity with upside.

Diving in deep, let’s start with the early rounds.

I’ve only participated in a couple of drafts thus far this season. But as I read some of the latest news and watch all of the preseason action, the word on the Fantasy Football Street is wide receivers are going early. It’s not hard to make this argument when you consider the top two consensus receivers are the Vikings Justin Jefferson (128 receptions in 2022) and the Bengals Ja’Marr Chase (over 20 FPG in 2022).

In most of my drafts, I am slotted beyond the 6th spot, so with the receiving landscape being so rich in talent the receiver I am most interested in taking as a last first or early 2nd round pick is Davante Adams. Over the past three seasons Adams has averaged 1,481 yards receiving, 14.3 receiving touchdowns, and 112.6 receptions each season. In his first year in Las Vegas his production level was on par with these averages. In 2022 his finished as the third highest scoring fantasy wide receiver playing in all 17 games. Even with a new quarterback (Jimmy Garappolo) this season, I don’t see a big fall off for Adams. Even with a 5-8% regression he finishes as a top 5 wideout. He’s a safe pick with great value.

Still in the early rounds, two running backs that I have been seeing around the 3rd and 4th round turn are (Packers) Aaron Jones and (Cardinals) James Conner. Both backs offer RB1 value, each finishing in the top 12 last season in fantasy points per game. Jones registered over 1,500 yards from scrimmage in 2022, while Conner finished as a top 10 fantasy running back. Both are going late enough you can bypass in the first two rounds pick up Jones in the late 3rd or grab Conner a little later in the 4th.

As we skate along into the mid-rounds, this about the time to start looking for my tight end and this season my sights are set on the Giants Darren Waller. Listening to a lot of Training camp talk on the radio and TV, there’s a buzz around Waller in New York. Looking back at his 2019 and 2020 seasons with the Raiders, Waller stormed onto the fantasy scene posting TE1 numbers, finishing as the No.5 fantasy tight end in 2019 and No.2 in 2020. Last season was a bust playing in the shadow of (Davante) Adams, but now that he’s in New York, Waller absolutely has the talent to be the number one option for quarterback Daniel Jones.

Finally, this Draft Day target is not a late round flyer, but in my opinion possibly a steal in the 7th round or later, Steelers wide receiver George Pickens. In my opinion, Pickens is dynamic and showed a lot of flash last season when given the opportunity. Last season compared to other receivers with at least 80 targets, Pickens finished 6th in yards per reception with 15.4 yards per catch. His quarterback has been looking good this preseason and figures to take a few steps forward, so I am expecting good things from Pickens. Last season he finished as the No.52 fantasy wideout, this season I believe he could make a leap to a borderline WR2/WR3 (12 team leagues). 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Morning Edition
October 6th 2019

Sunday Morning Gametime

Who to Start?

These are some of the players I am starting today, for my Week 5 lineups;

Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins, Min; I just love the matchup and the opportunity for the Vikings offense to get their passing game off the ground. The running game should remain healthy, but I am looking for several big plays from Cousins in the passing game.

Carson Wentz, PHI; The Eagles quarterback has been on point this early completing 61 percent of his passes, averaging 240 yards passing with 9 touchdowns on the season. Wentz is currently the No.5 scoring quarterback in fantasy. Trust in Wentz.

Running backs
Tarik Cohen, CHI; The Bears are facing a pretty good Raiders run defense, but with the absence of wide receiver Taylor Gabriel, I expect to see quite a bit of Cohen lining up in the slot. Back in week one Cohen was targeted 10 times; we could see similar numbers today.

Aaron Jones, GB; With the injury to running back Jamal Williams, it could be the Aaron Jones show today against a good Cowboys defense. Where I like Jones today, is in the pass game; Cowboys have allowed the 8th most receptions to the running back. Another silver lining, the Cowboys have not been great stopping the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin, TB; This is a no-brainer for me. Godwin, the No.3 fantasy scoring WR (PPR format) has been nothing short of terrific this season. Today may not be another big game because he lines up along side with the No.5 fantasy wide receiver Mike Evans. The numbers indicate he’s a safe play averaging more than 8 targets per game.

Stefon Diggs, MIN; For many of the same reasons I am rolling with Cousins, I have to insert Diggs today. The talented wide receiver is coming off a career season in 2018, but is off to a slow start. Today could be the jump start he and the passing offense need.

Tight Ends
Jared Cook, NO; I have been riding with Cook for several weeks and losing patience. He has a great matchup today against the Bucs who allow the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Cook has yet to breakout this season, today could be his day.

Noah Fant, DEN; This is purely a gut feel and lack of options. Not to knock the kid out of Iowa (the No. 23 fantasy TE), he’s quietly been pretty good and I believe he’ll continue his rise. Fant is averaging just a tick under 4 targets per game in an offense that is due to breakout. Last week Fant scored his first NFL touchdown, showcasing some of his athletic skills. Today could be another step forward.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega