FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 9 FIRE & ICE

November 4th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

FF Week 9: Fire & Ice Report

Through Eight weeks of NFL action there have been plenty of players up and down throughout the season, heading into this Sunday. Fantasy studs like AJ Brown and Tyreek Hill continue to trend in the right direction and while others like Deebo Samuel are struggling to stay on the field. With less than 12 hours until NFL Sunday Week 9 kickoff, this is a short list of some of my notables that are either heating up or cooling down or (on) Fire or Ice (cold).

Fire

The Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (fantasy QB20) has been on a roll lately. Last week Burrow passed for nearly 300 yards, completing a career high 87.5% of his passes going 28 of 32, with three touchdowns. Over his last three games Burrow has averaged 261.7 yards passing, completing 76.3% of his 113 passes, and tossed 8 touchdowns. With a Sunday night matchup at home against the Bills, he's a fantasy lock for Week 9.

The Jets second year running back Breece Hall (fantasy RB15) looks to be firing on all pistons as he rolls into a Week 9 matchup on Monday night with the Chargers. Hall is coming off a solid Week 8 showing in the pass game, bringing in 6 passes for 76 yards and a 50-yard touchdown reception. Through his last three games Hall has been the fantasy RB4 averaging 77.7 yards rushing on 15+ carries per game. He’s also been terrific in the passing game adding 14 receptions for 147 yards receiving and three touchdowns (1 receive, 2 run) during this stretch. Hall is a must-start for Week 9.

Ravens running back Gus Edwards (fantasy RB30) has been hot of late, coming off a spectacular Week 8 performance with three rushing touchdowns. Edwards is averaging 61.7 yards rushing and 35.3 yards receiving over his last three games with most of the damage being fueled by his two most recent games. With a home tilt in Week 9 against a tough Seahawks defense he’s still a solid flex consideration for Week 9.

The rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison (fantasy WR11) has been the guy in Minnesota the past several games in absence of Justin Jefferson. In his past two games he’s been heavily targeted (averaging 9 per) registering 14 receptions for  205 yards and three scores. He has actually scored a touchdown in four straight games averaging 8 targets, 5.8 receptions, 74.2 yards receiving, with 5 receiving touchdowns. He’s a must-start this week against a Falcons secondary that has surrendered 5 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers the past two weeks.

Colts rookie wide receiver Josh Downs (fantasy WR37) has been trending in the right direction the past several weeks. For the past four straight weeks, he has seen no fewer than 6 targets per game. During his last three contests, Downs has caught 17 passes for 218 yards receiving and two touchdowns. After the success he has had in back-to-back games against the Browns and Saints, Downs faces a tough Carolina defense on Sunday, but he belongs in lineups.

The Bills rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid (fantasy TE12) has arrived. Kincaid is coming off consecutive games with at least 7 targets, 5 receptions, and 65 yards receiving. The Bills are one of the best offenses in the NFL and with his teammate Dawson Know on the IR, Kincaid should remain one of the primary weapons of the passing game behind (Stefon) Diggs. With a Sunday night Matchup with the Bengals on the calendar, Vegas has this contest pegged as the highest scoring affair in Week 9, fantasy managers can turn, and his name is Dalton (Kincaid), loose.

The Browns tight end David Njoku (fantasy TE12) has been quietly warming up. Njoku is averaging double-digit fantasy points over his last three games and in his last two, he has seen his target share and productivity increase significantly. With 17 targets in his last two contests Njoku has 9 receptions for 131 yards receiving and a score. The Browns will have quarterback Deshaun Watson back under center on Sunday and a home matchup with the Cardinals make Njoku a serviceable TE-1 this week. The Cardinals are allowing more than 10 fantasy points (ppr format) to TE-1 this season.

Ice

The Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (fantasy QB16) started out the season hot, but he has cooled off quite a bit over the past several weeks. In his past three starts, Stroud is only completing 55.2% of his passes and has thrown only three touchdowns.  He has a home matchup with the Buccaneers this week and although Tampa has struggled lately allowing the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks for the past four weeks, Stroud is a sit this week in seasonal leagues, but remains a consideration in DFS.

The Packers running back Aaron Jones (fantasy RB30) has been on ice since returning from injury in Week 4. After missing Week 5, he returned in Week 7 following the team’s bye, but he’s basically been on a pitch count the past couple of weeks, splitting snaps with AJ Dillon, and has not done much. In his last two games he’s averaging 11 touches for 52.5 yards per game. Until Jones is healthy, he’s best left on your bench.

The Chiefs wide receivers Kadarius Toney (fantasy WR95) & Skyy Moore (fantasy WR88) entered the 23 season with much promise being a part of an offense anchored by quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In their last three games, Toney has 5 catches (8 targets) for 26 yards and a score, while Moore has totaled 5 receptions (10 targets) for 45 yards. Through 8 weeks this season, neither has done much of anything to even warrant a roster spot.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega