September 30th 2016
Friday Evening Edition
Friday Fantasy Fix
We've got three weeks in the books and whether or not it's enough info to accurately predict outcomes and performances, doesn't matter I am going to offer my two cents nonetheless.
Here are just some notes, observations, and ridiculous predictions for week 4 of the NFL.
Must Plays...
With 2nd year quarterback Trevor Siemian seemingly growing up week-to-week right before our eyes, there's little doubt the Buccaneers defense is going to challenge the young gunslinger. Last week it was Emmanuel Sanders rising up with the big day, this week I like Demaryius Thomas to come up big. Thomas was only targeted 7 times last week, but still came up big with a solid fantasy day. This week I am expecting even greater.
The Cardinals will have a tough divisional matchup this Sunday against the Rams, but that shouldn't matter to wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. The 13-year vet leads the team in targets, receptions, yards receiving, and touchdowns, by far and it's not even close. Fitz doesn't look like he's lost a step and this week's matchup should be just another one for books. In two matchups last season, Fitz was targeted 20 times and caught 15 balls. He only totaled 154 yards and didn't score, but this year the savvy vet seems to be finding his way to the end zone. If he gets enough looks, he's going to produce.
I am sure if you've been like me, you have been counting the first three weeks just waiting for Steelers running back LeVeon Bell's suspension to end. Now that it has, it's time to play the kid and expect a heavy does of Bell on Sunday. He's a dual threat who may not see 20 plus carries, but he'll be active in the pass game and be one of Sunday's PPR darlings in week 4. Fantasy owners also note, the Chiefs allow the 11th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed the 7th most rushing yards this season.
Plan B...
If your starter is on a by this week and you have to go to plan B, the Panthers running back Fozzy Whittaker could provide the needed relief. Last week he was stifled against a tough Vikings defensive front, but should have find greater success this week against the Falcons. In three games this season the Atlanta defense is 22nd versus the run and allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Another plan B play for week 4 is Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian. He's definitely not playing like a second year quarterback and he has plenty of weapons to dispurse the ball to. The Buccaneers defense will likely stack the box and try to make the kid beat them with his arm; which he may be able to do. Last week Siemian passed for over 300 yards, he could very well follow up with an encorE performance.
Sleepers...
The Saints are on the road this week in San Diego and if you are thinking of playing running back Travaris Cadet, this could be the week. In PPR formats, Cadet could be looking at a big week agains the Chargers defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and has allowed the second most receptions. Cadet is a pass-catching specialist and already has 11 receptions (tied for 8th in NFL for RBs) on 16 targets (tied for 8th in NFL for RBs) this season.
This may not be a true sleeper play, but it's borderline especially in redraft leagues where this guy may not have even made any fantasy teams. They have not played a lot, just three games this season, but I like the combination of wide receiver Mike Wallace's speed and quarterback Joe Flacco's big arm. This Sunday the Ravens host the Raiders, a.k.a the big air secondary; that is the Raiders give up a lot of big plays and Wallace was made for the big play. Wallace is seeing a steady diet of targets thus far and this should continue into Sunday. The Raiders have allowed 16 pass plays of 20 yards or more already this season, which only means Wallace and Flacco will add to that total.
Flyers...
So far this season the Bears have had little to cheer about, but at least fantasy owners have tight end Zach Miller. Last week the former Jaguar had his best game of the season with 8 grabs for 78 yards and two scores. Now he may not score twice again this season, but this week against the Lions secondary worst against opposing tight ends he's looks to be lock to find pay dirt. The Lions allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have surrendered five touchdowns in just three games. I would expect the Bears to be looking for Miller in the red zone on Sunday.
Waiting list...
The Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles is expected to see action for the first time this season on Sunday, but if you drafted Jam expecting him to return to form this is probably not the week. Fantasy owners should lower their expectations. In deeper formats, you may have to roll the dice and take a shot, but if you have options this may be a play worth waiting on.
That's my take for Week 4.
~David G. Ortega
September 27th 2016
Tuesday Evening Edition
Week 3 Sunday Notes:
These are just some of my observations and notes from the games played on Sunday, Week 3.
DEN-CIN
Hill looks good early on ground, 2 touchdowns
Den no run game, all pass.
Sanders looking good on way to big game.
DT quiet first half, salvages day with big TD
Den late pass rush steps up.
Shane Ray making IDP noise on the outside.
ARI-BUF
Shady finally running loose
Palmer and pass game sputtering.
John Brown involved finally.
Palmer having horrible day.
Johnson has big game, 100+ total yards, 2 tds
Taylor uses his legs for 76 yards and a TD
MIN-CAR
Min defense solid
Kelvin non-factor finishes with donut.
Rudolph receiving TD, nice day.
Diggs quiet, Car secondary stiff,
Cam under tremendous pressure.
Vikings stifle Panthers run game.
McKinnon quiet in start, 17 touches.
DET-GB
Rodgers and Nelson show once again
Lions no run game, GB def good
Marvin Jones is #1, big game.
Lacy has nice game on ground.
Starks goes MIA with just 8 yards.
Stafford airs it out; 385 yards 3 tds
Ebron grabs 5 passes for 69 yards.
BAL-JAX
Pitta another good 1st half, goes blank in 2nd.
Flacco accurate, no long ball
Ravens no run game against Jags
Robinson sighting, comes up with 2 tds.
Ivory does nothing.
Bortles struggles with 3 ints.
CLE-MIA
Parker looks like real threat
Dolphins offense not that good/Clev def?
Duke Johnon has 81 total yards on 15 touches
Barnidge posts 5/66 line.
Terrelle Pryor is one man gang with 200 total yards and td
Landry turns in another big day with 7/120/1 line
Tannehille throws for 300 yards and 3 tds
WAS-NYG
Cousins finding his legs, 296 yards 2 tds
Jackson and Crowder solid.
Vereen running well, finishes with 95 total yards
Odell has solid 7/121/0 line
Sterling Shepard catches 5, finds end zone.
OAK-TEN
Henry getting work, runs for 45.
Carr slinging the rock.
Raider running game suspect
DeMarco Murray playing nice, runs for 114, adds 41 receiving.
Crabtree grabs 8 for 102 yards.
Cooper held to 62 yards.
SF-SEA
Jimmy Graham back with 6/100/1 line
Christine Michael solid with 100 yards on ground
Baldwin has big game with 8 grabs, 164 yards, and td.
Hyde turns in good game with 100 yards 2 tds
LA-TB
Winston bouncing back
Rams offense finally showing life.
Mike Evan huge day with 10/132/1 line
Quietly Humphries adds 9 grabs with 100 yards.
Sims totals 124 yards with 19 touches.
SD-IND
Gore running hard
Chargers O struggling in red zone.
Luck throws his way to decent day and win.
Hilton shines with 8/174/1 line.
Dorsett does little.
Rivers 300 yards no tds.
NYJ-KC
Chiefs off to fast start, Kelce looks good
Fitzpatrick struggling.
Jets receiver invisible.
both offenses ugly
PIT-PHI
Wentz looks pure
Philly D playing well
Steelers offense MIA?
Jordan Matthews a red zone favorite.
Antonio continues to be unstoppable.
Just my notes from Sunday.
~David G. Ortega
September 25th, 2016
Sunday Edition
Sleeper Spotlight
With Donte Moncrief out, the speedy Colts wide out Phillip Dorsett with get his shots opposite T.Y. Hilton. Dorsett will also have his starting quarterback Andrew Luck under center, so he should see plenty of targets especially downfield. Like Hilton, I like Dorsett as a big play receiver and he'll get in the end zone today against the Chargers.
The Giants will be without running back Rashad Jennings today, but that's good news for Shane Vereen fantasy owners. Vereen is a very capable runner and exceptional in the passing game. He's a borderline flex-RB2 today especially in PPR formats. I say play him with confidence.
Those are a couple of my takes for Sleepers in week 3.
My Daily DFS
If you are like me you can never get enough fantasy. I enjoy the season long leagues very much, but I am definitely hooked on the daily fantasy sports as well. Here's my week 3 Draft Kings line-up in one of the smaller contests;
QB-Philip Rivers ...still has plenty left in tank
RB-CJ Anderson ...has been solid this season
RB-DeMarco Murray ...looks like the feature back
WR-Travis Benjamin ...doubling down with Rivers
WR-Kenny Britt ...looking for value here.
WR-Amari Cooper ...could be a breakout Sunday
TE-Dwayne Allen ...one of Luck's faves in Red Zone
Flex-Victor Cruz ...should find end zone today
DST-Broncos ...defense looks solid!
That's my take,
~David G. Ortega
September 25th, 2016
Sunday morning Edition
Sunday Morning Gametime
Start'em
Coming off a big day a week ago with 9 receptions and 102 yards receiving, I like tight end Dennis Pitta's 12 today in a not-so-great matchup against the Jaguars. The Jags defense has been pretty good versus opposing tight ends, but the Ravens pass catcher is healthy and appears to be a focal point in the pass game. Last week Pitta led the team with 12 targets. He may not see as many today, but he should see enough to put up top 10 TE fantasy numbers this week. Start him.
Fantasy owners should be able to count on Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers to be a Week 3 Road Warrior. The Bolts signal caller has a very favorable road matchup agains the Colts secondary, ranked 23rd versus opposing quarterbacks in fantasy. Rivers has been solid thus far averaging 231.5 yards passing per game with 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions; expect another solid effort from the veteran today in Indianapolis. Get him in your lineup.
Most fantasy owners are going to have Jets running back Matt Forte in their line-ups today, so this is more for the DFS players, start Forte. He's got a fair salary value, and with a hot matchup against the Chiefs defense that is ranked 30th versus opposing running backs in standard scoring. Forte is the workhorse in New York and should see lots of work today. He's a start today.
He's been a favorite of mine in this early part of the season and I will continue to ring the bell for wide receiver Victor Cruz. With a savory matchup against the Redskins defense, ranked 26th versus opposing wide receivers I expect we'll he Victor Cruz's name plenty of times today. Start him with confidence.
Sit'em
It's always tough to sit your studs, but fantasy owners better temper their expectations from wide receiver AJ Green. The Bengals wide out will match up against one of the leagues best secondaries that allows the third fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. It's a tough call to sit Green, but don't expect big numbers today.
The Niners running back Carlos Hyde has a tough match up today facing the Seahawks 3rd ranked run defense. He's not off to a great start averaging well less than 4 yards per carry and just 122 yards in two games this season. I would not expect to see the Niners offense make any big strides today on the road, fantasy owners may want to look elsewhere for help in the backfield.
Injury Round-up
RB-Jamaal Charles, OUT
RB-Rashad Jennings, OUT
RB-Arian Foster, OUT
WR-Sammy Watkins, OUT
WR-Willie Snead, Questionable
TE-Virgil Green, OUT
TE-Delania Walker, Questionable
Expected to play;
WR-Brandon Marshall
WR-Alshon Jeffrey
That's my take,
~David G. Ortega
