September 30th 2016
Friday Evening Edition
Friday Fantasy Fix
We've got three weeks in the books and whether or not it's enough info to accurately predict outcomes and performances, doesn't matter I am going to offer my two cents nonetheless.
Here are just some notes, observations, and ridiculous predictions for week 4 of the NFL.
Must Plays...
With 2nd year quarterback Trevor Siemian seemingly growing up week-to-week right before our eyes, there's little doubt the Buccaneers defense is going to challenge the young gunslinger. Last week it was Emmanuel Sanders rising up with the big day, this week I like Demaryius Thomas to come up big. Thomas was only targeted 7 times last week, but still came up big with a solid fantasy day. This week I am expecting even greater.
The Cardinals will have a tough divisional matchup this Sunday against the Rams, but that shouldn't matter to wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. The 13-year vet leads the team in targets, receptions, yards receiving, and touchdowns, by far and it's not even close. Fitz doesn't look like he's lost a step and this week's matchup should be just another one for books. In two matchups last season, Fitz was targeted 20 times and caught 15 balls. He only totaled 154 yards and didn't score, but this year the savvy vet seems to be finding his way to the end zone. If he gets enough looks, he's going to produce.
I am sure if you've been like me, you have been counting the first three weeks just waiting for Steelers running back LeVeon Bell's suspension to end. Now that it has, it's time to play the kid and expect a heavy does of Bell on Sunday. He's a dual threat who may not see 20 plus carries, but he'll be active in the pass game and be one of Sunday's PPR darlings in week 4. Fantasy owners also note, the Chiefs allow the 11th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed the 7th most rushing yards this season.
Plan B...
If your starter is on a by this week and you have to go to plan B, the Panthers running back Fozzy Whittaker could provide the needed relief. Last week he was stifled against a tough Vikings defensive front, but should have find greater success this week against the Falcons. In three games this season the Atlanta defense is 22nd versus the run and allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Another plan B play for week 4 is Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian. He's definitely not playing like a second year quarterback and he has plenty of weapons to dispurse the ball to. The Buccaneers defense will likely stack the box and try to make the kid beat them with his arm; which he may be able to do. Last week Siemian passed for over 300 yards, he could very well follow up with an encorE performance.
Sleepers...
The Saints are on the road this week in San Diego and if you are thinking of playing running back Travaris Cadet, this could be the week. In PPR formats, Cadet could be looking at a big week agains the Chargers defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and has allowed the second most receptions. Cadet is a pass-catching specialist and already has 11 receptions (tied for 8th in NFL for RBs) on 16 targets (tied for 8th in NFL for RBs) this season.
This may not be a true sleeper play, but it's borderline especially in redraft leagues where this guy may not have even made any fantasy teams. They have not played a lot, just three games this season, but I like the combination of wide receiver Mike Wallace's speed and quarterback Joe Flacco's big arm. This Sunday the Ravens host the Raiders, a.k.a the big air secondary; that is the Raiders give up a lot of big plays and Wallace was made for the big play. Wallace is seeing a steady diet of targets thus far and this should continue into Sunday. The Raiders have allowed 16 pass plays of 20 yards or more already this season, which only means Wallace and Flacco will add to that total.
Flyers...
So far this season the Bears have had little to cheer about, but at least fantasy owners have tight end Zach Miller. Last week the former Jaguar had his best game of the season with 8 grabs for 78 yards and two scores. Now he may not score twice again this season, but this week against the Lions secondary worst against opposing tight ends he's looks to be lock to find pay dirt. The Lions allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have surrendered five touchdowns in just three games. I would expect the Bears to be looking for Miller in the red zone on Sunday.
Waiting list...
The Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles is expected to see action for the first time this season on Sunday, but if you drafted Jam expecting him to return to form this is probably not the week. Fantasy owners should lower their expectations. In deeper formats, you may have to roll the dice and take a shot, but if you have options this may be a play worth waiting on.
That's my take for Week 4.
~David G. Ortega
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