October 16th, 2016
Sunday Morning edition
Sunday Morning Gametime
We have less than 90 minutes until gametime and looking at some of the injury forecasts for today, I have a couple of tid-bits I will throw into the pot. These are just some of my favorite starts and sits for Sunday week 6.
"Who's In, Who's Out"
The Dolphins will roll out running back Arian Foster today against the Steelers. Foster has been out for several weeks with injury and has always been a health risk for fantasy owners. If you lack better options, he's a week 6 PPR start for me this week; he's in.
The Bengals will be tested today, but an upstart Patriots defense riding the high of the return of their team leader Tom Brady. The Pats offense will put a lot of pressure on the Bengals "O' today to match scores. AJ Green is the likely popular play in Cincy, but I like wide receiver Brando Lafell to contribute to day. He's more of a mid-to-low WR3, but I am playing him where I can; he's in.
A new offensive coordinator in Baltimore and maybe the team will committ more to the run this week. Last Sunday running back Terrance West was having a solid day, but just finished with 11 carries for 95 yards. This week I expect to see the Ravens to stay with the run a little longer equating to more than 11 carries for West. He's a mid-to-high RB3 this week against the Giants, but I like his chances to score; he's in.
With Jonathan Stewart returning to the lineup this week, running back Fozzy Whittaker will be returning to my bench. He's could see some work in the pass game, but in week one playing behind Stewart, Whittaker saw just 4 touches. He's out for me today.
I have Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant in a couple of leagues myself and with the 4pm EST kick-off, the risk seems too high. The Cowboys have a bye next week and it makes more sense to get their star receiver back to 100% health, rather than rushing him out there on to the field. Dez is out for me today.
That's My Take.
~David G. Ortega
September 30th 2016
Friday Evening Edition
Friday Fantasy Fix
We've got three weeks in the books and whether or not it's enough info to accurately predict outcomes and performances, doesn't matter I am going to offer my two cents nonetheless.
Here are just some notes, observations, and ridiculous predictions for week 4 of the NFL.
Must Plays...
With 2nd year quarterback Trevor Siemian seemingly growing up week-to-week right before our eyes, there's little doubt the Buccaneers defense is going to challenge the young gunslinger. Last week it was Emmanuel Sanders rising up with the big day, this week I like Demaryius Thomas to come up big. Thomas was only targeted 7 times last week, but still came up big with a solid fantasy day. This week I am expecting even greater.
The Cardinals will have a tough divisional matchup this Sunday against the Rams, but that shouldn't matter to wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. The 13-year vet leads the team in targets, receptions, yards receiving, and touchdowns, by far and it's not even close. Fitz doesn't look like he's lost a step and this week's matchup should be just another one for books. In two matchups last season, Fitz was targeted 20 times and caught 15 balls. He only totaled 154 yards and didn't score, but this year the savvy vet seems to be finding his way to the end zone. If he gets enough looks, he's going to produce.
I am sure if you've been like me, you have been counting the first three weeks just waiting for Steelers running back LeVeon Bell's suspension to end. Now that it has, it's time to play the kid and expect a heavy does of Bell on Sunday. He's a dual threat who may not see 20 plus carries, but he'll be active in the pass game and be one of Sunday's PPR darlings in week 4. Fantasy owners also note, the Chiefs allow the 11th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed the 7th most rushing yards this season.
Plan B...
If your starter is on a by this week and you have to go to plan B, the Panthers running back Fozzy Whittaker could provide the needed relief. Last week he was stifled against a tough Vikings defensive front, but should have find greater success this week against the Falcons. In three games this season the Atlanta defense is 22nd versus the run and allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Another plan B play for week 4 is Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian. He's definitely not playing like a second year quarterback and he has plenty of weapons to dispurse the ball to. The Buccaneers defense will likely stack the box and try to make the kid beat them with his arm; which he may be able to do. Last week Siemian passed for over 300 yards, he could very well follow up with an encorE performance.
Sleepers...
The Saints are on the road this week in San Diego and if you are thinking of playing running back Travaris Cadet, this could be the week. In PPR formats, Cadet could be looking at a big week agains the Chargers defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and has allowed the second most receptions. Cadet is a pass-catching specialist and already has 11 receptions (tied for 8th in NFL for RBs) on 16 targets (tied for 8th in NFL for RBs) this season.
This may not be a true sleeper play, but it's borderline especially in redraft leagues where this guy may not have even made any fantasy teams. They have not played a lot, just three games this season, but I like the combination of wide receiver Mike Wallace's speed and quarterback Joe Flacco's big arm. This Sunday the Ravens host the Raiders, a.k.a the big air secondary; that is the Raiders give up a lot of big plays and Wallace was made for the big play. Wallace is seeing a steady diet of targets thus far and this should continue into Sunday. The Raiders have allowed 16 pass plays of 20 yards or more already this season, which only means Wallace and Flacco will add to that total.
Flyers...
So far this season the Bears have had little to cheer about, but at least fantasy owners have tight end Zach Miller. Last week the former Jaguar had his best game of the season with 8 grabs for 78 yards and two scores. Now he may not score twice again this season, but this week against the Lions secondary worst against opposing tight ends he's looks to be lock to find pay dirt. The Lions allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have surrendered five touchdowns in just three games. I would expect the Bears to be looking for Miller in the red zone on Sunday.
Waiting list...
The Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles is expected to see action for the first time this season on Sunday, but if you drafted Jam expecting him to return to form this is probably not the week. Fantasy owners should lower their expectations. In deeper formats, you may have to roll the dice and take a shot, but if you have options this may be a play worth waiting on.
That's my take for Week 4.
~David G. Ortega
September 21st 2016
Wednesday Evening Edition
Waiver Wire Wednesday
It's week 3 of the fantasy season and it's time to start looking for needed help for those owners that have yet to get out of the gate at 0-2. For those of you that have fared a little better, there's always room to improve and here are some names that can offer the needed relief.
The Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta showed up in week 2. He was probably a forgotten name during most drafts, but after his 9 receptions on 12 targets for 102 yards last Sunday owners will remember him again. Pitta had missed all of last season and had only played in 7 games in the prior two seasons before that. He's certainly has the size and familiarity with his quarterback and is definitely Wire Worthy this week.
In Carolina the Panthers are facing a change in their backfield with running back Jonathan Stewart expected to miss time and the next man up could be running back Fozzy Whittaker. The word is committee coming out of Carolina, but Whittaker looks like the best bet. Owners that are thin in their backfield may get some temporary relief, but this is not a long term solution with the Stewart likely to return sooner than later.
After his big passing performance (374 yards in the air) in week 2 on Thursday night quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is definitely one of the hottest players on the waiver wire this week. Fitz is loaded with talented receivers all around him and with a nice complimentary pass catching workhorse in the backfield, he's a potential top10 QB and a favorite of mine going forward.
In Tampa, if starting running back Doug Martin is sidelined his back up Charles Sims will be he next man up, but could be a tough play in week 3. Sims is more of the prototypical size for running back at 6'0" and 215 yards, but he's yet to do much this season and facing the Rams on Sunday owners will need to proceed with caution.
Just before the season started there was some headlines in Baltimore when the Ravens released running back Justin Forsett, but then days later he was resigned. Forsett was reinserted as the starter when the season began, but his slow start may have landed him into fantasy free agency. Last week he came up with 17 touches and while his fantasy numbers are lagging at the moment he could be working his way back; definitely wire consideration.
That's my take,
~David G. Ortega
September 20th, 2016
Tuesday Evening Edition
Sunday's Heroes
As I have done in the past, it's never a bad idea to take a quick glance at the weekend that just passed to see if we can find some hidden gems or diamonds in the rough. Week two was filled with more NFL exctiting and plenty of fantasy studs and Sunday Heroes worth noting.
These are some of the Sunday's less noticable, but most notable performers for fantasy owners to watch...
With an injury to Panthers starting running back Jonathan Stewart, back-up Fozzy Whittaker was the next man up and filled the spot nicely. The 4th year running back toted the rock 16 times for 100 yards and added three grabs for another 31 yards. If Stewart misses times, Whittaker should be a highly regarded Waiver Wire grab for week 3.
The Falcons signal caller Matt Ryan (730 yards passing, 5 passing touchdowns) is off to a nice start in 2016 as he continued his hot hand on Sunday against the Raiders. Ryan was absolutely magnificent completing over 75% of his throws on his way to nearly 400 yards passing and three scores. Ryan's fantasy value has dipped the past couple of seasons, so he's definitely worth a grab off the wire this week, should be still be out there.
It was not spectacular in volume, but you could not be more efficient than Raven's wide receiver Mike Wallace turning 50% of his grabs into scores. Wallace was targeted 6 times, grabbing four balls for 67 yards. His two scores now give him three on the year. He may still be available, but you can bet he'll be a waiver wire favorite this week.
After a quiet week one, the Titans tight end Delanie Walker showed his fantasy prowess in week 2 against the Lions. Walker was targeted 6 times snagging all 6 for 83 yards with a score. He and his second year quarterback Marcus Mariota have great chemistry, you can expect Walker to remain a TE1 the rest of the way.
After missing the entire 2015 season, Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin is back with his large 6'5" frame to show the football world he's not lost a step. On Sunday the third year receiver was electric catching 7 passes for 108 yards and two scores. With 13 receptions, 199 yards receiving and three scores, he's a top 15 WR the rest of way.
On Sunday night under the lights, Vikings second year receiver Stefon Diggs showed is doesn't matter who throws the ball, as long as they throw it to him. Against the Packers Diggs was unstoppable putting on a show to the tune of 9 catches on 11 targets for 182 yards and a score. The Vikings receiver leads the league in receiving yards with 285 and is second in the NFL with 16 grabs. He's on his way to becoming an elite and possibly top 10 WR by years end.
Rounding out the rest of our Sunday heroes...
The Browns running game received a burst of life with Isaiah Crowell's 133 yards on the ground Sunday against the Ravens. Most of his damage was done on a single 85 yard run, so he could be fools gold, but Crowell does have 30 carries this season for 195 yards, so the work is there.
The Falcons tight end Jacob Tamme tallied 5 receptions for 75 yards and a score in week 2. He's averaging 8 targets per game, with that kind of volume it's not hard to imagine Tamme putting up similar numbers on a regular basis; he has the look of a low TE1 and could be a Waiver Wire steal this week.
With Keenan Allen out for the season, next man up was Chargers wide receiver Travis Benjamin and he did not disappoint. He may not be able to carry his 6 catch, 115 yards receiving, and two touchdowns line every week, but he's a top 25 wide receiver right now.
Until the Patriots starting tight end Rob Gronkowski is 100 percent and even when he is, number two tight end Martellus Bennett has value. His 5-6 targets per week will always give him a chance at 5 catches for 114 yards and a score, especially when quarterback Tom Brady returns. Bennett is a high-end TE2.
That's my take for Week 2
~David G Ortega
