FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 19th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

My Fantasy Favorites

It’s a Saturday night and all I can do think about fantasy football; doing a mock draft and sharing more thoughts on fantasy favorites.

I’ve managed to participate in a few dozen mock drafts myself and have joined several leagues and the following players have been on my list of targets.

Depending on what my strategy has been in some of these leagues I have joined, if the tendency has been the running backs early, a favorite I have been targeting (usually) in the 4th or 5th round (depending on league size) is Lions wide receiver Golden Tate. Since his arrival to Detroit in 2014, Tate has been a machine averaging 93.3 receptions, 1,073 yards receiving, and more than 135 targets in each of the past three seasons. With the departure of Anquan Boldin and his 95 targets from last season Tate should slide into the slot position more and see his volume greatly this season. More targets this season can only elevate him above his 17th fantasy receiver position from a year ago.

Whether I am targeting running backs or wide receivers early, one player I have been eyeing in the early rounds has been the Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. There’s no question the big target is the Patriots Rob Gronkowski, but I typically don’t like taking a tight ends in the first two rounds where Gronk is going. Kelce is the 2nd tight end coming off the board which is warranted, since he finished last season as the number one TE with 85 receptions and 1,125 yards receiving on 117 targets. With wide receiver Jeremy Maclin (76 targets last season) now in Baltimore, Kelce is solidified as the Chiefs number one primary target in the passing game. At 6’5” and 255 lbs, Kelce is another Gronk and an ideal candidate in the red zone. Last season he was only targeted 15 times inside the 20, scoring three times; fantasy owners can expect head coach Andy Reid to change those numbers this season.

The Steelers have a not-so-secret weapon in wide receiver Martavis Bryant and even though he’s set to return to action this preseason, he still lingering around the 4th round, coming off the board as the 23rd fantasy receiver in PPR. That may be too rich to take as your number one or two receiver, if you go running backs early, but if you can get him as your third receiver I love his upside. Playing opposite Antonio Brown, he is going to see plenty of favorable coverage and his electrifying speed is just a big play in the making. In 2015 Bryant played in 11 games totaling 50 receptions for 765 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns on 92 targets with most of his damage coming in week 6 through week 15; good enough for the number 10 fantasy receiver (in PPR) during that stretch. He’s a fantasy monster in wait and worth the grab.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 19th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Sleeper Watch

So what is a real sleeper in fantasy? I actually don’t know what the true definition is, but by my calculation it’s a player that greatly outperforms their draft day position. These are players that are not expected to perform to the same value as players taken well ahead of them.

For example, let’s take a look at last year; the Saints rookie wide receiver Michael Thomas per Fantasy Football Calculator had an overall ADP of 123.5 going behind players like Markus Wheaton and Kamar Aiken. Thomas finished 2016 as the number 7 wide receiver in PPR (per Fantasy Pros).

This years crops of candidates that I believe will outperform their current ADP include the Redskins wide receiver Pierre Garcon (79 receptions, 1,046 yards receiving in 2016). After finishing the season as the number 23 fantasy receiver in PPR (per Fantasy Data), his current ADP of 88.8 (per FFC) puts him around the 8th and 9th rounds of most drafts and the number 36 receiver (a WR3/WR4) being taken off the board. Garcon is in a new place but playing for a familiar face; head coach Kyle Shanahan. When the two last got together in Washington back in 2013, Garcon posted a stat line of 182 targets, 113 receptions, 1,346 yards receiving, and 5 touchdowns. This season he is in line to take on the primary receiver role in San Francisco, so we can expect to see him numbers rise significantly from a year ago.

Over in Arizona, they have an explosive and talented receiver in John Brown, current ADP 106.7 (per FFC). Last season Brown struggled with health issues finishing with just 39 catches, 517 yards receiving, and 2 touchdowns; good enough to finish well outside the top 50 fantasy receivers in PPR. Rumors are Brown has worked extremely hard this offseason to get himself healthy, stronger, and back on the field. There’s no question that Brown (65 catches, 1,003 yards receiving, 7 touchdowns in 2015) has the skills and ability to be a difference maker. Brown does come with some risk, but with Larry Fitzgerald a little older, Michael Floyd gone, this season would appear to be a great opportunity for JB to shine (if he can stay healthy).

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 18th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

The Halfback Attack

Another Friday night and with nothing better to do than talk fantasy football, let’s jump right in with a couple of more players I like in 2017.

I no longer believe the hype, because I believe the talk around Vikings camp is truth; rookie running back Dalvin Cook will be their starting running back sooner than later. Cook ran with the starters through most of the first half in the team’s second exhibition game and looking at his numbers; 7 rushes for 40 yards rushing, 1 catch for another 10 yards. Cook was taken early in the 2nd round in this year’s NFL draft and it looks like he be paying dividends early this season. He’s no secret now and he’ll continue to rise in fantasy drafts, in my opinion he’s a solid low-end RB2 with plenty of upside. Fantasy owners should still find him available in the 3rd round of most drafts.

The Packers new running back Ty Montgomery was a big surprise last season, especially since he entered the season as one of the team’s wide receivers. Montgomery proved to be more than capable and pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. He would have been the number 10 fantasy running back from weeks 13 to week 17 last year. He’ll have his work cut out this season, since defenses will now game plan with him as a running back. Nonetheless, I like Montgomery very much this season, in particular in PPR formats. He’s a capable runner and a solid pass catcher (44 receptions in 2016). Montgomery didn’t see his running back duties increase until mid-season last year and this season he’s bulked up some and could see those duties increased even more in 2017. What I like most about Montgomery is the offense he is a part of that features quarterback Aaron Rodgers. We are hearing good things about Montgomery this camp and that has the potential to lead to greater volume. Montgomery may be going a little early for my taste (as early as the 2nd round in some leagues), but beyond the 3rd round the value is there with this pick.

The Giants 2nd year running back Paul Perkins  is currently positioned to enter this season as the team’s starter. Last season there were some flashes and his strong week 17 finish, toting the rock 21 times for 102 yards was eye-opening. Thus far Perkins hasn’t stopped the presses in camp, but I believe the former UCLA Bruin has the talent and skills to succeed at this level. If he can run with the job, there should be enough volume for Perkins to finish in the top 20 (RB2). So far what I am seeing in fantasy drafts, Perkins in going around the 6th and 7th rounds (depending on league size) which about where I would take him, maybe even a round later. The Giants have a full backfield and nothing is guaranteed at this time, so any earlier might be a little too risky, but any later than the 7th and that’s value that’s hard to pass up.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 17th 2017

Thursday Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch 

The Good Hands of Fantasy

Drafts boards are quickly filling up and lots of names are getting tossed around, so I am just sharing some names that I believe are worth watching for during your upcoming fantasy drafts.

Let’s take a look at the good hands folks for this season.

In Los Angeles one my early to mid-round favorites this season is Keenan Allen, The Chargers top wide receiver has had a run of bad luck, but if you look at his first two seasons, he played in 29 of 32 games. In those first two seasons Allen averaged 112.5 targets, 74 receptions, 914.5 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns; this is likely his floor. A more polished receiver now, only back in 2015 he was on pace (after 8 games) to snag 134 balls for 1,450 yards and 8 touchdowns (this could be his ceiling). If he’s back to 100 percent health, with Philip Rivers under center he’s got WR1 elite upside.

With Brandin Cooks getting traded to the Patriots, the stage is set for 2nd year receiver Michael Thomas. After a huge rookie campaign with 92 receptions and 1,137 yards receiving, Thomas figures to be Drew Brees primary weapon this season. In his rookie stint Thomas saw his fair share of targets with 121, fantasy owners can expect that number to climb greatly with Cooks and his 117 targets departing this offseason. More targets can only mean the likelihood of greater production; owners should target Thomas (who finished as the number 9 fantasy receiver in PPR last season) early in drafts.

We’ve got a lot of time until the season kicks off and I have many players to share, so one more for tonight.

There have been a lot of changes in Washington during the off-season, but perhaps one of the biggest with fantasy implications that I like is the addition of wide receiver Terrelle Pryor. The converted receiver in his 5th year brings a huge 6’4” frame to Washington’s passing game and could be a huge benefactor in the red zone. Last season Pryor converted 3 of 4 targets inside the 10 for three touchdowns; with Kirk Cousins passing the ball those numbers could rise dramatically in 2017. Pryor finished as the number 18 fantasy receiver in PPR last season with 140 targets last season. His targets total from last season could be right in line for 2017, but owners can expect a much better completion ratio this season. Pryor is being drafted around the 3rd round which is pretty par for the course as a low WR2 with some upside.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID DAILY DIGEST

August 15th, 2017

Tuesday Night Edition

This Week on the Cover

Sleeper or Bust

Fantasy drafts are in full swing, studs are being taken at the top, Ezekiel Elliott is falling, and rookie running backs seem to be on the rise.

Even with all of that, navigating through this year’s fantasy drafts will present many challenges even for the most savvy owner and experienced fantasy player.

The biggest challenge will be finding those hidden gems (fantasy sleepers), while trying to avoid the big disappointments (bust) that await every fantasy draft.

Some of the names at the top of this years list will include the Steelers 3rd year wide receiver Martavis Bryant. He’s shown the flash, but has had trouble staying on the field. He’ll be a risky selection no matter where taken, but offers huge upside and a big payoff if and when he returns to the field.

Another similar draft selection is the Redskins wideout Terrelle Pryor. He’s currently going in as early as the 3rd round and coming off a successful 2016 campaign (77 receptions, 1,007 yards receiving, 4 touchdowns on 140 targets), he has tremendous value. This season he’s in line as the team’s number 1A-1B receiver and has the potential of finishing as a top 15 receiver this season.

Other names that fall into this group, while they are names we know, in new situations there are many questions that abound; running backs Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, and Jamaal Charles. All could surprise and payoff in the end, but when to take these guys will depend on what you are willing to risk.

Remember, the earlier you take these names, the higher the expectation. So drafters proceed with caution and good luck.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega