FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 7th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 5 RB Rankings

(does not include Thursday’s game)

Not much of a surprise here, leading the way for Week 5 is the Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell. Last week Bell led all running backs with 34.60 fantasy points (PPR scoring) turning in a stat line of 35/144/2 and adding 4 receptions for another 42 yards. Bell has been the workhorse the past several weeks averaging 30-plus touches in his last three games. With a home contest on the slate this week against the Jaguars, not much expected to change here.

I am showing some love for running back Alex Collins this week; he’s my No.17 fantasy RB. The Ravens ball carrier has shown some nice running ability averaging over 9 yards per carry the past two weeks on 18 total carries. His problem is holding onto the ball. If he can overcome this big flaw, his matchup against the Raiders this week could be quite productive. The Raiders have allowed the 10th most rushing yards to opposing running backs and over 4 yards per carry. The Ravens offense is in great need of a spark and this matchup with Collins in the backfield could be what the doctor ordered.

Also coming into play this week is the Giants running back Wayne Gallman. Reports indicate, normal starter Paul Perkins is likely to be sidelined, opening the door for Gallman to take advantage. Last week Gallman rushed 11 times for 42 yards and this week he’ll get a crack at the Chargers 31st ranked run defense. The Giants offense is in need of some balance with their running game (ranked 30th) barely showing a pulse. Gallman has RB3 and flex status written all over him as my No.24 fantasy RB.

Here are my RB rankings for Week 5;

1. Le’Veon Bell

2. Kareem Hunt

3. Ezekiel Elliott

4. Todd Gurley

5. Jay Ajayi

6. Leonard Fournette

7. LeSean McCoy

8. Carlos Hyde

9. Melvin Gordon

10. Lamar Miller

11. DeMarco Murray

12. Jordan Howard

13. Ameer Abdullah

14. Bilal Powell

15. Christian McCaffrey

16. Frank Gore

17. Alex Collins

18. Latavius Murray

19. Joe Mixon

20. Duke Johnson

21. Marshawn Lynch

22. Tarik Cohen

23. LeGarrette Blount

24. Wayne Gallman

25. Andre Ellington

26. Jonathan Stewart

27. Giovani Bernard

28. Isaiah Crowell

29. Aaron Jones

30. Wendell Smallwood

These are my Top-30 rankings for Week 5.

~David Ortega

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September 29th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch this Week

We are three weeks in and we’ve seen some football, but is it still too early to call it; who the best team is, who the best studs are, and what we can expect the rest of the way? I’d have to say hold that thought. Remember “Any Given Sunday” anything can happen, which leads me to my week 4 “Fantasy Five”...

Can Raiders and Carr bounce back?

Normally I would say that’s a given. Quarterback Derek Carr has that Rodgers like swag, lots of talent and plenty of weapons to go around. The only exception here is the Raiders next opponent; the Denver Broncos. But which Broncos team will show up? Last week the Bills had an fairly easy go. The Broncos have remained stout against the run, so keep Lynch in the stall this week, but I would hang with Carr on Sunday. but don’t expect his greatest success this week. The

Is it time to turn Charles loose?

Last week we saw flashes and throughout these early weeks of the season we’ve seen hints. The Broncos running back Jamaal Charles looks healthy, he’s been running well, it’s time. Last week an ineffective run game for the most part submarined there hopes of winning on the road. I think you have to commit to Charles now if you are ever going to. Turn him loose and see what he can do. You have the luxury of a 1A-1B option in CJ, so you can use him to close games to save the thoroughbred. For now, Charles is still a risky flex, but my gut senses say he’s getting closer to cracking the starting lineup.

Do you trust Eli and the Giants offense?

I for one did not draft too many Giants this season, but I do have Odell Beckham Jr in a couple of leagues, along with running backs Paul Perkins and Shane Vereen. Needless to say after the first few weeks of seeing the mess this offense is, I’ve dropped Vereen and Perkins in a number. OBJ is still in my lineups for the 2-3 leagues I have him in, but it’s painful considering where I drafted him and what I’ve gotten in return. I think you have to wait it out with OBJ, but (Evan) Engram, Perkins, Vereen, and Marshall I am avoiding for the time being.

How good are the Rams and how good is Sean McVay?

It’s too early to be making such grand and bold statements, suggesting the Rams and quarterback Jared Goff are a great offense. But I’ll tell you, through the first three weeks I like what I see and I am buying into what McVay is selling. He’s put some nice pieces together and Goff is night and day from a year ago. I don’t believe we are at the point where you are starting everyone on this offense (just Gurley at the moment, Watkins is a flex), but we are moving closer and closer to seeing others become more prominent as fantasy fixtures. Stay patient.

Can Cousins repeat against Chiefs?

Week 3 was a wake up call for the Redskins offense last week and they were wide awake taking it to the Raiders. They will follow last week’s call with a big road test on Monday night against the Chiefs. Can Cousins repeat his scintillating Sunday night performance, it will be tough. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the loudest places to play in the NFL, but my belief is Cousins is starting to warm up this season and like Alex Smith (who will be on the other side), he’ll have company. Running back Chris Thompson is going to a matchup problem, tight end Jordan Reed (if healthy) will present some issues in the secondary, and the emergence of Josh Doctson who should be on fantasy radars. Cousins should be well equipped and fine on Monday night. He’ll present plenty of problems for the Chiefs defense that before Thursday night have allowed the 7th most passing yards this season.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 18th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

Tonight’s not exactly what you might call a Primetime matchup, but there’s still plenty of fantasy relevance with names like Stafford, Manning, and Beckham on the slate.

So let’s talk about tonight’s matchup and some of the plays that could have huge impact and implication on your weekly season long league matchups and your weekly DFS lineups.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford, could be in some DFS lineups tonight as well as a likely starter in season long leagues. Stafford is coming off a big week one performance with four touchdowns, but tonight could find slimmer pickings against a tough Giants secondary. Owners needing big numbers could be in for disappointment, but Stafford should come through with standard numbers in the 16-19 fantasy point range.

Wide receivers Golden Tate & Kenny Golladay, should once again be heavily involved in the passing game tonight. The Lions running game is certainly lacking after one week, and Stafford definitively favors his receivers; 25 targets of 41 passes to the wideouts. Tate is the heavy favorite in PPR, but Golladay could the better option in standard with the likelihood of a score tonight. Wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr (2 targets last week) could be the odd man out tonight and may be better off on your bench.

Running backs Theo Riddick & Ameer Abdullah are both in play tonight, but I wouldn’t expect big numbers from either. Riddick is the PPR fave out of the backfield with 7 targets in week one, but Abdullah (4 targets last week) could see enough work in the ground game (15 carries in week 1) against a Giants defense that allowed 129 yards in week one to be lineup worthy.

Tight End Eric Ebron is currently off the radar. He’s a risky start coming off a quiet week one with just 2 catches for 9 yards. Stafford three the ball 41 times in week one and only went Ebron’s way three times. With that ratio, he’s sitting until we see changes in the passing game progression.

Quarterback Eli Manning is probably not in too many lineups tonight and probably a good thing, tough to always predict his outcomes. Last week was not good with just 6.70 fantasy points against the Cowboys, but tonight could fare a little better for Eli at home. He’s still not a lineup favorite, but could put up reasonable numbers in the 14-17 fantasy point range

Running backs Paul Perkins & Shane Vereen should both be plenty active tonight against the Lions. There was no question in week one, the Giants abandon the run with just 11 total carries. We could see a more patient offense tonight, especially if star receiver OBJ is not available. Even with additional touches tonight for Perkins, Vereen (9 receptions in week 1) is the only viable Giant’s running back I am starting, and that’s only in PPR leagues.

Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr is the biggest factor and will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the Giants offense. Amid current rumors it sounds like OBJ could play tonight, but it doesn’t sound like he’s anywhere close to 100 percent. If he plays, he’ll be a huge risky start for fantasy owners. I am avoiding him in DFS, but may roll the dice with him in season long leagues.

Wide receivers Brandon Marshall & Sterling Shepard could see a bump in value is OBJ plays. Beckham Jr’s presence will certainly draw some attention and may allow Marshall and Shepard to operate underneath. Shepard (7 receptions & 88 yards receiving in week 1) is the favorite here, while Marshall may warrant some (but not much) consideration in PPR formats and TD heavy leagues.

Tight end Evan Engram had a decent showing in week 1 for an overall poor performance the Giants offense. The rookie tight end was targeted 5 times, snagging 4 for 44 yards. He’s more than likely in line to see similar numbers and may be worth starting in deeper PPR leagues. At 6’3” and with his athletic talent, he’s also worth a look TD-heavy formats as he’ll likely be featured in red-zone packages.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 9th 2017

Saturday Night Edition

Who Are You Starting & Sitting (Week 1)

Start or Sit

Charles Clay (start) The Bills tight end has a nice matchup against a Jets secondary that ranked 9th worst against opposing tight ends last season and allowed 10 touchdowns. He’s a low TE1 this week.

Kendall Wright (start) The Bears wide out will likely fill a familiar role in the offense this season and goes up against a Falcons secondary that ranked 10th worst against opposing receivers and allowed the 6th most receptions. He’s a nice flex this week.

Jeremy Hill (sit) The Bengals appear to have a bit of a convoluted backfield this season and add that they face a Ravens defense that allows the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and I am inclined to stay away.

Martavis Bryant (start) The Steelers wide receiver could have a juicy match up this week playing alongside with Antonio Brown. Add the Browns secondary allowed 20 touchdowns to opposing receivers last season and Bryant is favorite flex this week.

John Brown (start) The Cardinals wide receiver has been working hard to get healthy and back to form and in the team’s third preseason game he showed what he’s capable of when healthy with two scores. Sunday he’ll take on a Lions secondary that allowed the 7th most receptions to opposing wide receivers and 20 receiving touchdowns in 2016. Brown is another favorite for a flex play this week.

Leonard Fournette (sit) The Jags passing offense really struggled in the preseason which makes me believe the rookie runner is going to see a lot of 8 and 9 man in the box this season. Fournette will also be facing a Texans defense that returns JJ Watt and allowed the 11 fewest rushing yards a season ago. It’s going to be a long day for Fournette on Sunday.

Marshawn Lynch (sit) A lot of folks are excited about the return of Beast Mode, but fantasy owners may want to temper their expectations this Sunday. Lynch and Raiders will face a Titans defense that allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs last season. You may have to start him because of where he was drafted, but if you have options you may want to consider.

Terrelle Pryor (start) The Redskins newest big target has a tasty matchup on Sunday facing an Eagles secondary that allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. In the matchup I start Pryor and believe he’s got a great shot to score.

Sammy Watkins (sit) The Rams newest receiver may have a difficult time finding the end zone on Sunday. The Rams offense sputtered through the preseason and even with a Colts secondary missing cornerback Vontae Davis, the Rams are likely to run the ball a lot. Watkins could be tough sit on Sunday, but if you have to play him, it could be a long day.

Tyler Lockett (start) The Seahawks travel to Green Bay and like the recent heat wave in Southern California, Lockett could get hot on Sunday against a secondary that allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Lockett is not likely to see a large volume of targets, but he could get loose on a long one which is why I like him as a flex start.

Kelvin Benjamin (start) The Panthers wide out has looked sharp this preseason and should be peppered with bunch of targets on Sunday. He’ll face a Niners secondary that allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. He’s a mid WR2 start for me.

Paul Perkins (sit) The Cowboys were very good against the run a year ago allowing the second fewest yards rushing and the 4th fewest fantasy points. Perkins is going to have a tough time running against the Boys on Sunday night.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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August 18th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

The Halfback Attack

Another Friday night and with nothing better to do than talk fantasy football, let’s jump right in with a couple of more players I like in 2017.

I no longer believe the hype, because I believe the talk around Vikings camp is truth; rookie running back Dalvin Cook will be their starting running back sooner than later. Cook ran with the starters through most of the first half in the team’s second exhibition game and looking at his numbers; 7 rushes for 40 yards rushing, 1 catch for another 10 yards. Cook was taken early in the 2nd round in this year’s NFL draft and it looks like he be paying dividends early this season. He’s no secret now and he’ll continue to rise in fantasy drafts, in my opinion he’s a solid low-end RB2 with plenty of upside. Fantasy owners should still find him available in the 3rd round of most drafts.

The Packers new running back Ty Montgomery was a big surprise last season, especially since he entered the season as one of the team’s wide receivers. Montgomery proved to be more than capable and pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. He would have been the number 10 fantasy running back from weeks 13 to week 17 last year. He’ll have his work cut out this season, since defenses will now game plan with him as a running back. Nonetheless, I like Montgomery very much this season, in particular in PPR formats. He’s a capable runner and a solid pass catcher (44 receptions in 2016). Montgomery didn’t see his running back duties increase until mid-season last year and this season he’s bulked up some and could see those duties increased even more in 2017. What I like most about Montgomery is the offense he is a part of that features quarterback Aaron Rodgers. We are hearing good things about Montgomery this camp and that has the potential to lead to greater volume. Montgomery may be going a little early for my taste (as early as the 2nd round in some leagues), but beyond the 3rd round the value is there with this pick.

The Giants 2nd year running back Paul Perkins  is currently positioned to enter this season as the team’s starter. Last season there were some flashes and his strong week 17 finish, toting the rock 21 times for 102 yards was eye-opening. Thus far Perkins hasn’t stopped the presses in camp, but I believe the former UCLA Bruin has the talent and skills to succeed at this level. If he can run with the job, there should be enough volume for Perkins to finish in the top 20 (RB2). So far what I am seeing in fantasy drafts, Perkins in going around the 6th and 7th rounds (depending on league size) which about where I would take him, maybe even a round later. The Giants have a full backfield and nothing is guaranteed at this time, so any earlier might be a little too risky, but any later than the 7th and that’s value that’s hard to pass up.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega