FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 17th 2017

Tuesday Evening Edition

Sunday Lineup Killers

FANTASY DUDS 

If you owned any of these fantasy duds, it wasn’t pretty on Sunday. These are the players that are supposed to carry your squad on Sunday, but it’s likely if you had them, they killed any chance for a win in Week 6.

The Raiders quarterback Derek Carr returned to action in Week 6 after missing a week with a back injury. After his dismal performance on Sunday, just 171 passing yards with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions (the No.26 fantasy QB for week 6), fantasy owners may have wished Carr sat out another week.

The Lions had to turn to a heavy pass game on Sunday to play catch up and keep up with the Saints. Unfortunately for fantasy owners running back Ameer Abdullah only carried the ball 14 times for 54 yards and only saw two targets in the passing game (resulting in zero catches). Not a good day if you were a Lions fan or Abdullah owner.

It was another long Sunday for Patriots running back Mike Gillislee and fantasy owners. Gillislee finished outside the Top-50 fantasy RB (in PPR) failing to find the end-zone for 4 consecutive game. With just 44 rushing yards and a fumble, Gillislee was a lineup killer on Sunday.

The Rams wide receiver Sammy Watkins has virtually become the invisible man the past several weeks and on Sunday he continued the trend. Against the Jaguars Watkins was targeted 4 times and caught all of one ball for 11 yards.

The Raiders have a Houdini of their own in the passing game, wide receiver Amari Cooper. Fantasy owners have not heard much from Cooper the past several weeks and on Sunday he made little noise catching 5 balls for a mere 28 yards; not exactly what fantasy owners were looking for.

On Sunday the Green Bay Packers lost their starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers (broken collarbone) and it seems that tight end Martellus Bennett was also lost. Bennett has not been a focal point in the Packers pass game this season and on Sunday with just 2 receptions for 22 yards, it seems that role has not changed.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 10th 2017

Tuesday Late Evening Edition

Week 5 Sunday Lineup Killers

There are just some days you can't avoid that pot hole in the road and there are some Sundays where you wish you had avoided that lineup killer. And I'm pretty sure there were some of you that really wished you had avoided starting Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Apparently Big Ben wasn't feeling it on Sunday throwing 5 interceptions with zero touchdowns. Big Ben has been a tough read this season with no strong fantasy performances this season and after Sunday's disaster, you'll be regulating the Steelers quarterback to your bench for the time being.

The Rams running back Todd Gurley was as bad as 5 turnovers, but his low production in Week 5 (50 total yards) definitely hurt fantasy owner's chances for a win. Unlike last season's struggles, fantasy owners can chalk this one up to divisional matchup, Seahawks defense, etc, etc. Gurley has been brilliant this season, so there's no need to panic. This will happen with some of these divisional matchups, but Gurley will bounce back and he'll have those big Sunday's owners drafted him for.

And like Gurley, the Lions running back Ameer Abdullah was disappointing in week 5. At home, Abdullah and the Lions were ambushed by the visiting Panthers. Abdullah was completely shut down, limited to just 31 yards rushing and 3 yards receiving. His performance can be attributed to a good Panthers defense and game flow. The Lions fell behind big and in the 4th quarter became one dimensional going with running back Theo Riddick down the stretch. This was just a bad game for the Lions and not the norm, when the offense is operating Abdullah is going to see the Lion's share. No need to worry, he should bounce back strong next Sunday against the Saints.

One concerning trend in the Lions offense this season has been wide receiver Golden Tate. In a game where the Lions trailed big and had to play catchup, fantasy owners would expect to see a heavy dose of Tate in the pass game. Such was not the case, on Sunday Tate caught all of 5 balls for 48 yards receiving; good enough for the No.39 WR in week 5. In three of his last four starts Tate has scored in single digit fantasy points, a trend that needs to change or fantasy owners may need to start looking for more reliable options.

After 5 weeks it's official, time for fantasy owners to put their Steelers toy wide receiver Martavis Bryant away for a while. With the struggles of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, Bryant has not been able to put together a solid Sunday since week 2. He has continued to fall down the fantasy tree (just 5 catches for 21 yards in week 5) and landed at the No.46 fantasy WR spot. He can't be trusted for now, it's time to sit Bryant.

Through 5 weeks of the season, the Lions tight end Eric Ebron (currently the No.48 fantasy TE in PPR) has been collecting dust on your fantasy bench. If you didn't start him back in week one, you probably haven't started him all season and every Sunday he keeps giving you reason to sit him. With the exception of week 2, Ebron has been irrelevant every Sunday. In weeks 1, 3, 4, and 5 he has a total of 7 receptions for 51 yards; that averages to 1.7 catches and 13 yards per game. He's off the fantasy radar for now.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 2nd, 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday At A Glance

(Just My Takes)

DeAndre Hopkins is a PPR Machine

Through the first four weeks of the season, the Texans leading receiver leads the league with 49 targets and his 31 receptions this season ranks first in the league. With his quarterback starting to emerge as a playmaker and capable signal caller there seems no ceiling for Hopkins going forward. He is the current No.3 fantasy WR in PPR, and looks to continue his climb. He’ll have some tough Sundays ahead, but he’s once again a must start every week.

Jared Goff and Rams offense look legit & 

Gurley is Top-5

We are one quarter of the way through the 2017 season and while it feels like it still may be too soon to say, it’s equally hard to deny how good this Rams team is, especially the offense. Goff still has a lot of growing to do, but he’s on the right track currently ranked as the No.10 fantasy QB. The offense will only go as far as Goff, as will running back Todd Gurley. Goff’s strong play has opened up opportunity for Gurley which he has responded; through 4 weeks Gurley is ranked as the No.1 fantasy RB (in PPR, 2nd in standard).

Le’Veon Bell dominates Week 4; Is he No.1 

Fantasy RB

Not only did the Steelers ball carrier dominate the field of play, he dominated the offense with 39 touches. It’s doubtful that Bell will continue to see this hefty a workload every week, but there’s no question of his durability and toughness. Last week Bell total 186 yards with 2 scores against a tough Ravens defense. Bell is currently the No.6 fantasy RB in PPR, with matchups against the Jaguars, Chiefs, and Bengals next he’ll be looking to climb to the top.

Alvin Kamara is rising to the top

It may look like Adrian Peterson is out of place in New Orleans, but rookie running back Alvin Kamara looks like a perfect fit. Through the team’s first four games Kamara has logged as much time on the field as starter Mark Ingram. Ingram has been the team’s primary ball carrier in the early part of the season, but Kamara has shown his chops in the pass game logging 20 receptions for 147 yards receiving and touchdown. Both Kamara and Ingram are good options in fantasy, with Ingram holding a slight advantage, but the gap is closing and more touches are in Kamara’s future.

Ameer Abdullah is proving to be steady

Over the past three weeks running back Ameer Abdullah has totaled 281 yards of offense, adding 6 catches and a touchdown. He’s not exactly lighting up the board at the moment, but after putting 94 yards on the 5th ranked run defense (Vikings) last Sunday he’s steady. He’s the No.22 fantasy RB in PPR and should be in starting lineups in 12-14 leagues.

Is Giovani Bernard the best back in Cincy?

After a few weeks of watching the Bengals offense struggle their way to a 1-3 record, no question the offense has issues. This past week the Dalton gang got the passing game off the ground and their 23rd ranked running game stalled again. Rookie running back Joe Mixon has taken over the starting duties, but that has not helped the running game get out of first gear. In four games this season Bernard leads the backfield in total yards with 223; 9 more yards than Mixon, but with 37 fewer touches. It may be time to give Bernard a bigger role in the offense.

It’s All Pass and No Run in New England

There’s a lot for the Patriots to worry about on defense these days, but another thing to take notice is the lack of balance of offense. Tom Brady and company are number one in the league in the air and only 20th on the ground. Mike Gillislee (194 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns) has emerged as the only viable (standard league) option in the ground game, while James White (22 receptions and 173 yards) is the PPR play. With Tom Brady (1,399 yards passing) leading the NFL far and way in passing yards, his receiver situation is a little tougher to read. With Amendola, Cooks, and Hogan available, each week it’s not easy to determine a pecking order; they are all in play. Cooks seems to be the deep threat, but even his contributions are guaranteed; just three catches for 38 yards last week and only one big week thus far this season.

The Broncos biggest weakness on defense 

is their Quarterback

Right now the Broncos defense looks pretty formidable; ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run (allowing just 2.4 yards per carry best in the league) and of course everyone is familiar with their “No Fly Zone.” The defense is going to give this team a chance to win every week, but where it will struggle is on offense. The Broncos quarterback started out strong this season, but his last two efforts have been forgetful. Siemian hasn’t been terrible, but while the running game has been solid (3rd in the NFL) the passing game is lacking (21st in the league). Until Siemian get the aerial attack off the ground two things; eventually defenses are going to force the offense to be one dimensional and the other Thomas and Sanders will see their numbers drop (as evident on Sunday)

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 18th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

Tonight’s not exactly what you might call a Primetime matchup, but there’s still plenty of fantasy relevance with names like Stafford, Manning, and Beckham on the slate.

So let’s talk about tonight’s matchup and some of the plays that could have huge impact and implication on your weekly season long league matchups and your weekly DFS lineups.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford, could be in some DFS lineups tonight as well as a likely starter in season long leagues. Stafford is coming off a big week one performance with four touchdowns, but tonight could find slimmer pickings against a tough Giants secondary. Owners needing big numbers could be in for disappointment, but Stafford should come through with standard numbers in the 16-19 fantasy point range.

Wide receivers Golden Tate & Kenny Golladay, should once again be heavily involved in the passing game tonight. The Lions running game is certainly lacking after one week, and Stafford definitively favors his receivers; 25 targets of 41 passes to the wideouts. Tate is the heavy favorite in PPR, but Golladay could the better option in standard with the likelihood of a score tonight. Wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr (2 targets last week) could be the odd man out tonight and may be better off on your bench.

Running backs Theo Riddick & Ameer Abdullah are both in play tonight, but I wouldn’t expect big numbers from either. Riddick is the PPR fave out of the backfield with 7 targets in week one, but Abdullah (4 targets last week) could see enough work in the ground game (15 carries in week 1) against a Giants defense that allowed 129 yards in week one to be lineup worthy.

Tight End Eric Ebron is currently off the radar. He’s a risky start coming off a quiet week one with just 2 catches for 9 yards. Stafford three the ball 41 times in week one and only went Ebron’s way three times. With that ratio, he’s sitting until we see changes in the passing game progression.

Quarterback Eli Manning is probably not in too many lineups tonight and probably a good thing, tough to always predict his outcomes. Last week was not good with just 6.70 fantasy points against the Cowboys, but tonight could fare a little better for Eli at home. He’s still not a lineup favorite, but could put up reasonable numbers in the 14-17 fantasy point range

Running backs Paul Perkins & Shane Vereen should both be plenty active tonight against the Lions. There was no question in week one, the Giants abandon the run with just 11 total carries. We could see a more patient offense tonight, especially if star receiver OBJ is not available. Even with additional touches tonight for Perkins, Vereen (9 receptions in week 1) is the only viable Giant’s running back I am starting, and that’s only in PPR leagues.

Wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr is the biggest factor and will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the Giants offense. Amid current rumors it sounds like OBJ could play tonight, but it doesn’t sound like he’s anywhere close to 100 percent. If he plays, he’ll be a huge risky start for fantasy owners. I am avoiding him in DFS, but may roll the dice with him in season long leagues.

Wide receivers Brandon Marshall & Sterling Shepard could see a bump in value is OBJ plays. Beckham Jr’s presence will certainly draw some attention and may allow Marshall and Shepard to operate underneath. Shepard (7 receptions & 88 yards receiving in week 1) is the favorite here, while Marshall may warrant some (but not much) consideration in PPR formats and TD heavy leagues.

Tight end Evan Engram had a decent showing in week 1 for an overall poor performance the Giants offense. The rookie tight end was targeted 5 times, snagging 4 for 44 yards. He’s more than likely in line to see similar numbers and may be worth starting in deeper PPR leagues. At 6’3” and with his athletic talent, he’s also worth a look TD-heavy formats as he’ll likely be featured in red-zone packages.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 6th 2017

Wednesday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

As I have already mentioned before, I’ve manage to participate in quite a number of fantasy drafts this pre-season and by this time that number has doubled. And through my draft software and web-surfing travels I’m still making plenty of mental notes (and of course several now on the back of napkins). With the 2017 NFL season less than 24 hours from kick-off, I am sharing even more of my thoughts and two cents (and yes I can make change of a nickel).

Fantasy Running Backs

Devonta Freeman

It seems a lot of the discussion at the top of fantasy drafts centers around running backs David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell; with Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension looming he’s falling in drafts. Even LeSean McCoy and Melvin Gordon get some ink, but the Falcons Devonta Freeman gets little press. Freeman has only finished 6th and 1st in fantasy (PPR) scoring for running backs the past two seasons. The Falcons return 21 of 22 starters this season; I think Freeman easily duplicates what he’s already done. Fantasy owners won’t go wrong taking him as a Top-5 fantasy back this season.

Todd Gurley

This kid is just too good to be held back, no matter how bad his offense plays. Last season the Rams offense was bad, but despite running back Todd Gurley finished as the No.15 fantasy RB in PPR. I don’t expect great improvements from the Rams, but under new first year head coach Sean McVay, I’m sure he can find more ways to utilize Gurley and get more productivity. I like Gurley to bounce back from last season and crack the Top-10 in 2017.

Ameer Abdullah

I am actually excited to see a healthy Abdullah back this season; missed 14 games last season to injury. The Lions didn’t spend a 2nd round pick in 2015 on running back Ameer Abdullah for nothing. He’s not going to be a bell-cow this season, but at 5’9” and 203 pounds Abdullah is a quick, strong, and versatile back that will see plenty of action in the passing game as well as the ground game. I don’t think it’s out of reach to see him finish around 220 touches (carries + catches) this season giving him a good chance at finishing well inside the Top-20 fantasy Running Backs. He’s being drafted well outside the Top-20 now making him a nice value at his current 5.06 ADP (according to FFC).

Doug Martin

Who is my favorite Martin or my favorite running back in Tampa Bay? Either way I’ll take running back Doug Martin when I can get him. Suspended for the first three games this season, I am finding little trouble taking him as my 3rd or 4th running back off the boards in the 5th to 7th rounds in some drafts. He’s worked hard in the offseason and has looked good in the preseason. I’m expecting a big year for Martin in 2017; it will just get started a little later. His current ADP of 5.01 (according to FFC) is in line, but I’m saying if you have to ability to take him any later he’ll be well worth the pick.

Robert Kelley

The Redskins starting running back Robert Kelley seems to be the quiet man in Washington with all of the Samaje Perine talk. I’m sure the rookie is good and he’ll be good, but have we forgotten all about Kelley? The 2nd year former undrafted free agent rookie out of Tulane won the starting gig just a year ago and finished as the No.26 fantasy running back (in standard leagues) last season. He also didn’t start until mid-season and from weeks 8 on thru 17 he was the No. 14 fantasy running back in PPR (according to Fantasy Pros). You’re probably not going to break the bank with Kelley, but he has value. He’s looked fine in preseason and should give fantasy owners decent production, especially as the No.27 running back going off the boards (an RB3 in 12-Team PPR leagues) according to FFC.

Jamaal Charles

Now I am probably going to take a lot of heat for this one, which is okay. Sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re wrong, and sometimes you whiff. The Broncos running back Jamaal Charles enters the 2017 campaign expected to backup running back CJ Anderson. I maintain here, that Charles is hands down the more talented back and has enough in his tank to win the job outright. Now’s he’s no young stud and can no longer carry the 20-25 touch workload, but if he can see 15-18 touches consistently this season and hold up, I believe he’s got a real shot at RB2 production. He ran well in his one cameo and even better looked great in pass protection. I am all-in this season with Charles in charge.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up the Wide Receivers

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 23rd 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch

We are inching ever so closer to your fantasy draft day or in many cases your next fantasy draft day. As you prepare for your next draft, even with one or more in the books, you can never get enough fantasy info or nuggets.

Now I can honestly say I didn’t pull any of these off the McDonald’s menu, but I will do my best to keep this as informative as I can. And with that, more players I like to add to your fantasy watch list.

The Lions will see the return of a healthy Ameer Abdullah this season (14 games missed last year). Abdullah is a talented runner that will give the Lions backfield a needed boost; team ranked 30th in rushing last season. There’s only been a small sample size of Abdullah since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2015 draft, but a lot of analysts, including this fan like his opportunity and upside this year. Abdullah should be in line for the majority of the early down work this season, but don’t be fooled he’s more than a capable pass-catching back. You can wait on this kid a few rounds, right now his ADP is 5.07, he’s going off the board as the RB26 (according to FFC).

Another running back that you can wait on for a few rounds is the Saints Mark Ingram. With the arrival and influence of Adrian Peterson Ingram has an ADP of 5.09, going off the board as the RB27 (according to FFC). Last season Ingram played in all 16 games and started 14, finishing with 1,043 yards rushing, 46 receptions, 319 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns, good enough for the number 10 fantasy running back. Right now he is being greatly undervalued going where he’s currently being drafted, which is why I like Ingram so much.

Even with his three-game suspension to start the season looming, Buccaneers running back Doug Martin is making enough noise in camp for me to believe when he returns, he’ll eventually (if not right away) resume his starting duties. Martin is healthy now, coming off an injury-shortened 2016 season, and even though he was not having a great campaign, he was on pace to finish around the RB22 fantasy back. Currently Martin has an ADP of 5.01, the RB23 going off the board (according to FFC), but he has looked very good this preseason and in camp. WE know Martin has upside, finishing as the RB3 in 2015. I am one who believes in his talent and ability and think if you take him this late, there’s plenty of good value here.

Speaking of running back Adrian Peterson, he’s back and with his return there’s a lot of questions and concerns, but this being fantasy football, there’s a lot of hope too. Everyone knows when healthy, All-Day is as good as they come and when healthy he’s a top 10 fantasy running back; top-10 eight times since 2007 (standard leagues according to Fantasydata), including number one in 2012. Peterson is now 32, in a new system, and figures to be in a timeshare with Mark Ingram. His volume is the big question, but there’s little doubt of his talent. I don’t think you can go wrong taking him beyond the 3rd round. Where he’s currently going (ADP of 4.12, the number RB22, according to FFC), puts him around a late RB2 or an early RB3; which is where I like him. He’s a mid-to-late 4th rounder with potential home run upside.

Interesting Late Grabs

There have been quite a few changes in New Orleans in the off-season, but one change that has caught my eye is the addition of Ted Ginn Jr. He joins an offense that has one of the league’s premiere deep ball throwers and accurate passers. Ginn has never really been a high volume receiver, but he is coming off back-to-back seasons with more than 95 targets, averaging 49 receptions. If he can see similar volume this season in New Orleans (last season the Saints number 3 receiver saw 104 targets), he’ll definitely improve his number 47 fantasy receiver from last year. With an ADP of 12.04, going off the board as the WR55, Ginn is virtually free and a late round flier I am high on.

  

Until we see how Jamaal Charles looks on the field, the best we can invest in him is a late round dart throw. He’s healthy now, but the Broncos have yet to turn him loose, so there should be pause. I’d expect when he hits the field, the needle will move a great deal in either direction; shoot up the draft board or go undrafted. If you are drafting before Saturday, he’s one of my favorite picks as a late or last round flier. The current word around the watercooler is he’s not expected to see a high volume of work this season (assuming he makes the team), maybe 8-10 touches, but I believe all this could change if he has success. And the biggest thing currently, with the exception of the team’s 6th round draft selection running back DeAngelo Henderson, there’s not a whole lot going on with the team’s running game.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 24th, 2016
Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Stock Watch

Stock Rising

With running back Danny Woodhead going down for the season, 2nd year back Melvin Gordon is likely to see his workload increase. He's off to a strong so far with 38 carries for 159 rushing yards to go with his 3 grabs for 18 yards. Owners can expect to see more Gordon going forward, as long as he can stay healthy he's a fantasy stock on the rise.

Like Gordon, the Lions running back Theo Riddick could see a significant spike in his workload and production with starter Ameer Abdullah expected to miss some time. While Riddick is not a big back, or built for between the tackles, the Lions friendly short passing game is a great fit for him. In the two games he has 9 receptions on 10 targets and with more time on the field those numbers could spike. He's a great PPR play and could offer some 

Heading into week 3, the Texans rookie receiver Will Fuller had a lot of flavor, but fantasy owners may want to stick to just just sipping the kool aid for now until we see more, especially after Thursday night's disappointing performance. Fuller shot out of the gate like a hot stock on the rise with two consecutive 100 yard performances, but cooled off against the Patriots. The rookie is still seeing plenty of opportunities with 7 targets on Thursday night, so this is a fluid stock that has great upside.

After missing all of the 2015 season, it looks like Raven's tight end Dennis Pitta could be back to his old form. He's coming off a huge productive Sunday with 9 catches off 12 targets for 102 yards. The big athletic tight end has had past success with current quarterback Joe Flacco and with his return this season, he could finish as a TE1 by season's end. Pitta is definitely a fantasy stock on the rise.

This is tight end Jacob Tamme's second season with the Falcons. With all the changes at the wide receiver position and lack of experience, the veteran tight end could see himself vulturing a lot of opportunities in the pass game. Through the first two weeks he's averaging 8 targets per game, most on the team and his 11 receptions also leads the teams passing game. For the moment, Tamme looks like a solid stock trend on the upside.

Stock Falling

The Dolphins veteran runner Arian Foster is coming off a serious injury from a year ago and with a history of being banged up, his prognosis for staying healthy does not look good. Already slated to miss Sunday Week 3, Foster stock is sliding fast.

The Chiefs running back, Jamaal Charles looks like he could be active this Sunday, but having missed the first two games and coming off a torn ACL from a year ago, fantasy owners should keep their expectations in check. Charles could see action, but there's no question right now, at best he'll be sharing duties with running back Spence Ware. Charles stock, for the price likely paid in most drafts is over-valued until we see something worthy of an early round draft pick.

Through two weeks, the Lions wide receiver Golden Tate has seen plenty of targets with 16, but his 9 receptions has only accounted for 54 yards. He's definitely an active target in the short passing game, unfortunately for owners he's not doing much after the catch and until that changes, his stock will continue to fall.

The Steelers wide receiver Marcus Wheaton has yet to see any action this season, but does look like he could be on the field this Sunday. Lets roll him out on the trading floor and see what he can do against the Eagles on Sunday, before we buy into any of stock. For now his value is flatlining.

That's my take for Week 3

~David G. Ortega