FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late-Night Edition

October 13th, 2018

Week 6: DFS Saturday

So, it’s been a while since my last entry, but like the rest of the fantasy football universe, I too have been playing the usual seasonal and weekly leagues.

So far, my track record for DFS has been break-even, so with some tasty Week 6 matchups, let’s see if there’s an opportunity to cash out this week.

The two primary day games where we could see a lot of fantasy explosions come in the Buccaneers-Falcons and the Bengals-Steelers, where the offensive weapons are plenty and the defenses are struggling.

In Draft Kings I am running a double stack with several players from these two matchups; QB-Matt Ryan paired with WR-Calvin Ridley and WR-Mohamed Sanu in my flex. The Bucs defense has allowed 9 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers and with the focus on Julio Jones, these two look like great prospects to find pay dirt.

Although Big Ben (Roethlisberger) is on the road this week, his week 6 matchup against the Bengals who allow the 7th most receptions to wide receivers make his two primary receivers (Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster) favorable plays this week as well.

Even with changes at Quarterback being made during their bye week, the Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans could be eyeing a huge Sunday against a Falcons secondary that has allowed 10 touchdowns to wide receivers (most allowed).

Speaking of a struggling defense, not only have the Falcons been torched through the air, but with a run defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, this is the week to play the Bucs Ronald Jones II. I am reading Jones may not start but given the state of the Bucs running game and this matchup, he should see plenty of opportunity to make some noise.

I have managed to see quite a bit of Browns Quarterback Baker Mayfield and I am impressed with his poise in the pocket and his arm strength. It’s a home matchup against a Chargers defense that will still be without pass rusher Joey Bosa. Given time to throw, I like Mayfield on Sunday paired with his number one receiver Jarvis Landry; three straight games with double-digit targets. With that much volume against the Chargers defense that allows the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, Landry looks like a solid play.

That’s my Take.

~David Ortega

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November 25th 2017

Saturday Night Edition

My Week 12 DFS Plays

With an exciting slate of 12 games on the board for Sunday, I am more than excited about playing me some DFS. Here are some of the names that will filter their way to my lineups for Week 12;

Duke Johnson Jr; The Browns running back posted a solid line the last time he faced the Bengals, thinking he can duplicate the type of outcome on Sunday.

LeSean McCoy; The Chiefs defense has not been great against the run of late and Shady is still one of the league’s most elusive and exciting running backs.

Tyrod Taylor; This is a full-on contrarian play for sure, but I like the odds with Taylor after being reinserted into the lineup with his matchup against an over-rated Chiefs defense. I am playing him in a stack with McCoy and Jones.

Martavis Bryant; he’s a risky boom or bust play every week, but the absence of JuJu Smith-Schuster favors his chances.

Kareem Hunt; I’d be expecting a big bounce back day after last week’s dud. Hunt has been too good this season to say quiet two consecutive weeks.

Kenny Stills; I’m not expecting quite the same day he had a week ago, but if he can post a modest 6 catches for 90 yards (or better), at his price I’d be more than happy.

Brandin Cooks; Just playing the numbers and the matchups with Cooks here. I am also making my pick based on what we saw last week. Brady and Cooks are starting to get in sync; look out opposing defensive backs.

Ben Roethlisberger; I am definitely feeling a big game from Big Ben this week. Last week’s 299 yards passing and 4 touchdowns was his best game this season, but this Sunday could be better.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 25th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 12 Perfect Line up

(NFL.com)

I am just like most fantasy football nuts, I love to play the games and all of the games. Every week I take my shots and let the Hail Marys fall where they may and included is the weekly Perfect Lineup on the NFL site. My track record has not been great of late, as I like to play the numbers, mixed in with a little bit gut-feelings and intuition. Last week my team tanked big, but that’s the great thing about fantasy, there’s another week to play until there isn’t. Here are my picks for Week 12;

QB-Ben Roethlisberger; The expectation is this offense is going to breakout at some point and while 40 points last week and subsequently a nice passing day from Big Ben (299 yards and 4 touchdowns) would be good indicators, that type of game falls a little short. It’s a great start nonetheless and has generated some buzz, but my gut is telling me this week is the boom week for Big Ben and the offense; bigger than last week.

RB-Kareem Hunt; Last week the hopes were high for Hunt and the Chiefs offense, but unfortunately there was only disappointment. This week owners will be singing a different tune with Hunt and company taking on the (Bills) worst run defense in the league over the past month.

RB-Mark Ingram; The Saints starting running back Mark Ingram is the league’s No.6 RB in standard and PPR, but over the past two weeks he’s number one. Ingram has lead the charge in his last two games with 287 scrimmage yards and 4 touchdowns and Sunday he faces a Rams defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs for the season.

WR-TY Hilton; Over the past month, only one defense against opposing wide receivers has been worse than the Titans. In the last four weeks the Titans defense has allowed the 2nd most touchdowns (6) and fantasy points to opposing receivers. This sounds like a very good matchup for wide receiver TY Hilton and with his quarterback Jacoby Brissett cleared for Sunday, all signs point toward big day.

WR-Julio Jones; The Falcons receiver is healthy this week or as healthy as he’s been this season and it comes in time for fantasy owners. The Falcons draw the Bucs this week and their 29th ranked pass defense and a secondary that has allowed the most receiving yards, most receptions, and 3rd most touchdowns to opposing receivers.

TE-Rob Gronkowski; The Patriots tight end was held in check a week ago with just three catches for 12 yards, but Gronk still managed to find the end zone. I would expect a healthier Gronk to enjoy greater success this week against the Dolphins. Gronk is always a Brady favorite in the red zone and could be looking at one of his multi-touchdown weeks.

PK-Justin Tucker; I am expecting the Ravens offense to have some great success moving the ball and as per usual of the offense this season, they will be calling on the sure footed Justin Tucker.

Steelers Defense; This looks like great matchup for the Steelers defense, a home matchup against a backup quarterback (Brett Hundley) that has been struggling. Hundley is coming off a three-pick performance a week ago. Look for the Steelers defense to turn up the heat and bring lots of pressure, early and often.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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November 22nd 2017

Wednesday Night Edition

On the Cover This Week

Pittsburgh is Steel Rolling 

with Big Ben

The Pittsburgh Steelers are sitting atop of their division at 8-2 and tied with the Patriots for the best record in the AFC. They have done all of this with something noticeably missing until just recently.

Heading into their Week 10 matchup with the Indy Colts, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense had yet to really fully display their talents and expectations as a unit. In what should have been a great matchup the Steelers offense was not all it could have been. But it was enough for the win and from that game a much-needed big play spark.

Fast forward to Week 11 and suddenly the Steelers offense led by Big Ben and his Killer Juju-Bees found gold again and struck big on Thursday night. With another toy in his arsenal and an old favorite, Big Ben turned in easily his best performance of the season last Thursday passing for 299 yards and throwing 4 touchdowns against the Titans defense. He finished as the league’s No.2 fantasy QB for Week 11.

It was a statement to the rest of the league to take heed, Big Ben and Company are back and Steelers offense is just heating up. With Antonio Brown playing lights out, the emergence of JuJu Smith-Schuster, the deep threat of Martavis Bryant, and the smooth Le’Veon Bell, Big Ben is well equipped to do some serious damage to opposing defenses.

Big Ben is only the No.16 fantasy QB through 11 weeks, but his stock is on the rise and he is trending in the right direction. With matchups against defenses like the Packers, Patriots, Texans, and the Ravens at home, Big Ben and the Steelers passing game could be ready to make a run and get a on sweet roll.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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November 12th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Week 10 Perfect Lineup

(NFL.com)

With the games set to start in less than two hours, not a lot of time to reflect, so I’ll just give you the short version. The highlights of my week 9 picks include quarterback Drew Brees and his 18.7 fantasy points (not very Brees-like) and the Cardinals defense with 13.0 fantasy points. The low-lights include Titans running back DeMarco Murray (4.1 fantasy points) and Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (6.5 fantasy points). All-in-all, not a good week, so let’s look at Week 10;

QB-Ben Roethlisberger; it’s time for Big Ben to breakout this season, and today’s matchup against the Colts to lend to that trend. Ben gets Martavis Bryant back and with JuJu, Antonio, and Le’Veon, he looks poised for a big passing day.

RB-Todd Gurley; the Rams running back is having a solid campaign, he’s the No.1 fantasy RB in standard and PPR. The Texans have been good against the run, but Gurley (29 receptions) also contributes in the passing game.

RB-Jordan Howard; the Bears runner has been solid this season as the league’s number five running back (662 yards rushing). He should see an avalanche of carries today and find the end zone once or twice.

WR-Julio Jones; the Falcons receiver has been relatively quiet this season, as far as Julio numbers go, today could be a breakout day against the Cowboys. He’s sure to see double digit targets and could put up monster numbers.

WR-Marvin Jones Jr; like the other Jones, this Jones could be a busy receiver today. With the Lions run game pretty much stuck in neutral, I like Jones to continue his upward trending with more targets and big plays today.

TE-Evan Engram; the Giants will be on the road, but against the Niners today may not make much difference. A poor Niners run defense could land the Giants in the red zone a number of times today, setting up some favorable chances for Engram to find paydirt.

PK-Ryan Succop; the Titans offense has struggled with scoring this season and with the lack of a dominant run game, I see a few drives stalling in the red-zone. Succop is the No.6 fantasy kicker having made 21 of 23 field goals this season.

D/ST-Bears; the Bears defense will be facing a backup quarterback with a home game, what’s not to like. Add the fact that the Bears defense has been playing very well of late, this is a tasty matchup.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 18th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 6 Fantasy Fallout

More Luck Needed.

This may not be what fantasy owners and Colts fans want to hear, but we are now heading into the 7th week of the season and quarterback Andrew Luck is still weeks away for seeing the field. At what point do you get into the season where you have to think about the long term and shut Luck down? At 2-4 through 6 weeks and a tough week 7 showdown with the Jaguars, the Colts season with Luck is getting farther and farther away. Fantasy owners will have to start facing the awful truth; they’re going to need lots more luck if Luck doesn’t return this season.

Chiefs Defense: Not What You Think?

After 6 weeks of action, there are no more undefeated teams left in the NFL as the Chiefs fell Sunday to the Steelers. And how did this happen? Maybe it’s because the Chiefs defense is not what you think. When they were 5-0 and getting ready to hit cruise control with the Steelers coming to town, what we saw on Sunday and found out, this team is not so formidable. In reality, their weakest link could be their defense, ranked 29th in total yards allowed. Did the Steelers 13th ranked offense in total yards expose them or am I just over-reacting?

Broncos Offense: A Fantasy Mess.

Being the Broncos fan that I am, after watching this offense seemingly struggle week after week a trend starts to emerge; their offense is a fantasy mess with Siemian under center. Is it the play-calling or the execution, hard to tell, maybe it’s both. One thing for sure is, the offense has produced just 10, 16, and 16, since their week 2 explosion for 42 points. Averaging just 14 points the past three weeks is not going to get it done for Broncos fans and fantasy owners. Something needs to be fixed (in the pass game or the run game) or this funk could continue and fantasy owners will be forced to start looking at sitting or trading players like Demaryius Thomas and CJ Anderson.

Packers Offense Facing A Big Change.

Everyone knows about the injury and most who follow football understand the importance of the starting quarterback to his offense. But when you are talking about the Packers starter Aaron Rodgers and his offense, there may not be anyone more important. Rodgers is definitely the engine that makes the Packers offense run. The first reaction is with Aaron OUT, all Packers players fantasy value across the board takes a huge hit. This may make sense, also the run game could become prominent (enter Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery), but the other wild-card to consider is backup quarterback Brett Hundley is no stranger to the offense and his supporting cast. On Sunday he was thrown to the wolves and one week is not going to be enough time to make a 180 degree difference, but as he gets in sync with the offense and the game slows down for him (and it will), we’ll have to see what he can do. So, no need to panic yet.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 15th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Game-Time

(Week 6)

You had me at Elijah.

Elijah McGuire is one of my flavors of the day. I love his matchup today against the Patriots and with Powell out, he should be heavily involved. Forte is not 100 percent, so I don’t consider him a real threat to dominate the touches today. Just ask Jerry, I like McGuire.

A sneaky sleeper or gut feeling

I read the same reports earlier in the week and I am not buying the kool-aid; Steelers considering giving Martavis a break. He and Big Ben have been just off on several deep throws this early going. If they had connected on even two of those, there would be different tunes being sung. The Steelers owned the Chiefs last season, and this is just the type of game the Killer Bees (Big Ben, Brown, Bell and Bryant) need to bounce back.

Love the move.

Peterson to Arizona made all the sense in the world to me. All-Day was buried on the bench is New Orleans, but in Arizona he’ll get a chance to be the workhorse in the ground game. I do love this move for both teams, but I’m not ready to jump off the deep end. Peterson will get work, but we’ll have to wait to see how it all shakes out; is he looking at 14-18 touches per game or can he be a 20+ plus touch ball carrier in a pass-first offense?

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 13th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five

Another exciting Sunday approaches as we are already underway with week 6, following Thursday night’s exciting finish between the Eagles and Panthers. And like the great game we watched Thursday, I am looking for a lot of great and a lot of exciting on Sunday. Here are five things I will be following on Sunday;

#1. The Giants are a mess, time to strike.

Injuries and in-house feuding has the G-men in turmoil. The offense has been decimated with injuries and the defense is a mess with players being suspended. If there was ever a time for the Broncos offense to strike, this Sunday night could be it. Coming off the bye quarterback Trevor Siemian will be looking to kickstart the passing game, while the Jamaal Charles and CJ Anderson will be looking to lead the running game against a 29th ranked Giants run defense.

#2. Steelers Offense needs a Spark.

After a horrid week 5 performance at home against the Jaguars, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the offense are in dire need of a spark. Running back Le’Veon Bell has been anchoring the run game, but what the offense has been missing are the big plays from the passing game. There’s been talk about giving wide receiver Martavis Bryant a break, I don’t buy it. He’s unquestionably your most explosive offensive player, he’s got to be involved this Sunday against the Chiefs. I’ve watched a number of Steelers games this season, and there have been numerous close misses between Big Ben and Martavis. I look for the two to take a number of shots this week and finally dial in a couple for the spark they need.

#3. Watch John Brown on Sunday.

The Cardinals speedy playmaking receiver John Brown has been practicing and getting healthier each week. Last Sunday Brown was targeted 7 times, snagging two balls for 26 yards and a score. Not big numbers in week 5, but his 7 targets equaled the number of targets he saw in week 4. As long as Brown continues to see a steady diet of looks, he’s going to have fantasy value; and this week adds an appetizing matchup against the Buccaneers 26th ranked pass defense.

#4. Deshaun a Stud; It’s Elementary my Dear Watson.

After back-to-back brilliant performances, the Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is educating the rest of the league as to how good this stud really is. Through five weeks Watson has cemented himself as a Top-10 fantasy QB. With a date against the Browns this Sunday and a defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, Watson will once again be putting his theory to the test.

#5. Mack’s time is coming, maybe sooner than later.

Father time has a way of calling when you least expect it and don’t want to listen. While Colts running back Frank Gore has been actively involved in the passing game the past couple of weeks, his rushing numbers have not been impressive; just 151 yards rushing on 51 carries in his last three starts. Rookie running back Marlon Mack had his first breakout game last week totaling 91 yards on 9 carries. The dominant running performance will surely earn him more time on the field and while we’re not ready to retire Gore just yet, you can bet Mack’s time is coming and he should be owned in fantasy leagues.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 10th 2017

Tuesday Late Evening Edition

Week 5 Sunday Lineup Killers

There are just some days you can't avoid that pot hole in the road and there are some Sundays where you wish you had avoided that lineup killer. And I'm pretty sure there were some of you that really wished you had avoided starting Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Apparently Big Ben wasn't feeling it on Sunday throwing 5 interceptions with zero touchdowns. Big Ben has been a tough read this season with no strong fantasy performances this season and after Sunday's disaster, you'll be regulating the Steelers quarterback to your bench for the time being.

The Rams running back Todd Gurley was as bad as 5 turnovers, but his low production in Week 5 (50 total yards) definitely hurt fantasy owner's chances for a win. Unlike last season's struggles, fantasy owners can chalk this one up to divisional matchup, Seahawks defense, etc, etc. Gurley has been brilliant this season, so there's no need to panic. This will happen with some of these divisional matchups, but Gurley will bounce back and he'll have those big Sunday's owners drafted him for.

And like Gurley, the Lions running back Ameer Abdullah was disappointing in week 5. At home, Abdullah and the Lions were ambushed by the visiting Panthers. Abdullah was completely shut down, limited to just 31 yards rushing and 3 yards receiving. His performance can be attributed to a good Panthers defense and game flow. The Lions fell behind big and in the 4th quarter became one dimensional going with running back Theo Riddick down the stretch. This was just a bad game for the Lions and not the norm, when the offense is operating Abdullah is going to see the Lion's share. No need to worry, he should bounce back strong next Sunday against the Saints.

One concerning trend in the Lions offense this season has been wide receiver Golden Tate. In a game where the Lions trailed big and had to play catchup, fantasy owners would expect to see a heavy dose of Tate in the pass game. Such was not the case, on Sunday Tate caught all of 5 balls for 48 yards receiving; good enough for the No.39 WR in week 5. In three of his last four starts Tate has scored in single digit fantasy points, a trend that needs to change or fantasy owners may need to start looking for more reliable options.

After 5 weeks it's official, time for fantasy owners to put their Steelers toy wide receiver Martavis Bryant away for a while. With the struggles of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, Bryant has not been able to put together a solid Sunday since week 2. He has continued to fall down the fantasy tree (just 5 catches for 21 yards in week 5) and landed at the No.46 fantasy WR spot. He can't be trusted for now, it's time to sit Bryant.

Through 5 weeks of the season, the Lions tight end Eric Ebron (currently the No.48 fantasy TE in PPR) has been collecting dust on your fantasy bench. If you didn't start him back in week one, you probably haven't started him all season and every Sunday he keeps giving you reason to sit him. With the exception of week 2, Ebron has been irrelevant every Sunday. In weeks 1, 3, 4, and 5 he has a total of 7 receptions for 51 yards; that averages to 1.7 catches and 13 yards per game. He's off the fantasy radar for now.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

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October 6th 2017

Friday Late Night Edition

What I Learned from Week 4

(Quick Takes) 

Cutler and Dolphins offense in trouble.

After watching their awful performance in Week 4 against the Saints, you get the sense the Dolphins offense is in really trouble if things don't start clicking quick. Cutler was pulled out of retirement because he knew the offense and had familiarity with the system. With receivers like Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker and running back Jay Ajayi, this team wasn't necessarily expected to be better, but should have been just as good. So far this has not been the case and this week they are home with Tennessee rolling into town. Last week the Titans were wiped out by the Texans surrendering 57 points. If the Dolphins are going to get things right, if fantasy owners are going to be able to trust players like Ajayi, Landry, and Parker, this is the week to make it all happen.

Texans have something special brewing.

I've been talking this up all week and if you haven't heard me, you just haven't been listening. Yes, it's a little early to making such bold statements about Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, but the kid is playing special. Through 4 games he's been special. Watson is the No.7 fantasy QB, ahead of names like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Marcus Mariota. He's 2-1 as a starter, making plays, throwing for 7 touchdowns, while running for 2 more. He's a rookie, so mistakes will come, but the resiliency this kid has already shown, he's making me a believer every Sunday.

Vikings receivers need Sam Bradford

When the season opened, back in week one the Vikings offense and passing game burst onto the scene with Bradford and his talented pass catchers leading the way. Diggs (No.1 in PPR) and Thielen (No.13 in PPR) are still among the top pass receiving fantasy options this season, but their numbers tailed off a bit last week and fantasy owners have to be getting the sense they really need Bradford back. If these two and tight end Kyle Rudolph are going to run with the fantasy big dogs, they need their starting quarterback. Bradford knows the system well, he's efficient with the ball, and deadly accurate; their numbers get a bump when Sam plays.

Are the Falcons Smoke and Mirrors?

To put it simply, the Falcons are 3-1, but could easily be 1-3 after surviving week 1 & 3 scares against the Bears and Lions. Last season the Falcons were a dominate team, lighting up the scoreboard. This season seems different. The team is still averaging 26 points per game (ranks 6th in the league), but they are definitely doing it in different ways. Matt Ryan had elevated his play a year ago to elite status, but this season he's just the 22nd fantasy QB and as would be expected wide receiver Julio Jones is the No.25 fantasy WR (in PPR). These are fall below fantasy owner expectations. Are the Falcons as good as advertised and will Ryan's numbers eventually reflect or are they telling now and the worse is to come? We'll see.

Is something wrong with Big Ben?

Big Ben has never really been a Top-5 fantasy QB. Since 2011 he has only finished inside the Top-10 once, in 2013 when he was the No.5 fantasy QB. Despite the lack of top finishes, fantasy owners have to be frustrated with Roethlisberger's current No.21 ranking. In four games he's only topped 250 yards passing once, and has just two multiple touchdowns games; two games of two. These are not quite the fantasy numbers owners are looking for. Historically Big Ben has always played well at home versus the road, so even though it's Jacksonville up next owners are hoping playing at home this Sunday will help him to get things going.

The Giants run game stuck in reverse.

After four games, it's pretty apparent the Giants running is non-existent. The Giants are the 30th ranked run offense this season and their 3.2 yards per carry average ranks near the bottom of the league. The prime culprit for these poor numbers is running back Paul Perkins. He's averaging less than 2 yards per carry this season and has just 61 rushing yards through 4 games. A starter to begin the year, Perkins (ribs) who is likely sidelined this week has fallen off the fantasy map and running backs Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa will now try to resuscitate the Giants lifeless run game.

Cousins and offense starting to show something.

There's no doubt, had Terrelle Pryor hung onto that touchdown throw late in the game and the Redskins came out on top, the talk on Monday would have been look out for Washington. This was the second straight game for Cousins where he played very well. In a tough road matchup Cousins was 14 of 24 for 220 yards passing and two scores (which could have easily been three). He also added 38 yards on 7 scrambles/runs. If the Redskins can get some of their pieces like Jordan Reed and Robert Kelley, healthy and back soon, then lookout because these guys could start to heat up real fast.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega