FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 16th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Who Are You Starting & Sitting (Week 2)

Start or Sit

Buck Allen (start) The Ravens are without Danny Woodhead for a while and running back Buck Allen is expected to take on the 3rd down passing role. Allen is a capable pass catcher and has value in PPR formats, primarily as a low-end flex option.

Cameron Brate (start) The Bucs tight end could be the forgotten man in the Bears secondary with both hands full covering Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. Brate finished the 2016 season with 57 receptions and 8 touchdowns. He could be good for a couple of grabs on Sunday, including a couple of red-zone looks.

Jesse James (sit) The Steelers will play host to the visiting Vikings on Sunday and tight end Jesse James may not find things as easy a go as in week 1. James managed to find the end zone twice last week, but could slim pickens against a stout Vikings defense that  allowed 14th fewest points to opposing tight ends in 2016.

Ted Ginn Jr (start) The Saints and Patriots could be locked in a barn burner. Ginn is nothing more than a favorable flex option this week, but I like his matchup. He was targeted 5 times last week, so he should get a few deep looks and pay off.

Travis Kelce (start) The Chiefs were creative in week 1 getting the ball into Kelce’s hands. They’ll likely make another concerted effort, even more so in the passing game and Kelce should reap the rewards.

Leonard Fournette (start) The Jaguars won’t have an easy time on Sunday, but Fournette should get enough carries to carve out a decent day for fantasy owners. The big back out of LSU should be a solid RB2.

JJ Nelson (start) The Cardinals will be without John Brown and David Johnson, so Palmer may have to lean even more on the passing game in this one. Nelson saw some steady work in week 1 and could see an uptick this week. He’s more like a low-to-mid WR3, but has upside potential. He’s a sneaky play on Sunday.

Devin Funchess (sit) The Panthers passing game looked anemic last Sunday with the receivers only seeing a total of 9 targets. Any of the three (Kelvin Benjamin, Russell Shepard, and Funchess) are a tough start right now until Cam is 100 percent healthy.

Marshawn Lynch (sit) Beast Mode looked pretty good in week as the Raiders managed his work load, limiting him to 19 touches. He’ll get a similar number this week, but could work his way to triple digits with a score.

Hunter Henry (sit) Last week the Charger tight end saw zero looks against the No Fly Zone Broncos secondary. He could get some work tomorrow against the Dolphins in the Chargers home opener, but with so many weapons in the passing game, there are better options available.

Eddie Lacy (sit) Last week Lacy looked terrible rushing for 3 yards on 5 carries. With Thomas Rawls entering the equation this week, Lacy belongs on your bench until further notice.

Rob Kelly (sit) The Redskins offense was out of sync last week and Kelley and the running game stalled with a total of 64 yards on 17 carries. Kelley had just 30 yards rushing last Sunday and this week he may find fewer holes; sit him.

Jason Witten (sit) The old man Witten was solid in week 1 on Sunday night against the Giants, but this week he get the Broncos No Fly Zone; just 3.70 fantasy points allowed to Chargers tight ends. I’m sitting Witten if I can afford and looking for a better matchup.

Martellus Bennett (start) The Packers and Falcons meet Sunday night in what could be an offensive spectacle. Bennett was targeted 6 times in week one and could see even more this week in a game that figures to see a lot of plays. I like Bennett’s chances to score in this one.

Golden Tate (start) The Lions wide receiver is healthy and though the Giants secondary played well last week, start Tate on Monday night. Tate was heavily targeted in week 1 and should see a heavy dose this week once again. In PPR formats he’s a must.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 16th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 2 Injury Takes

WR-Golden Tate; the Lions wide receiver has been removed from the team’s injury report this week. Tate is all systems go and should be started with confidence.

QB-Sam Bradford; the Vikings quarterback is trending towards starting Sunday and is expected to play. With Bradford under center, owners can start the Vikings receivers as expected. It’s a tough matchup, so temper your expectations.

WR-Odell Beckham Jr; recent reports suggest OBJ is expected to play. Don’t set your expectations high, but if OBJ is playing owners can’t afford to have him on the bench. It’s a tough call, but the Giants won’t roll him out unless he can be effective.

WR-Jarvis Landry; the Dolphins receiver is also trending toward playing, but owners will have to wait until the afternoon inactives to confirm. Landry is a middle of the road play this week, in my opinion. If safer options are available, that may be the better road traveled. If he’s healthy and a go, he’s likely a better play in PPR formats.

WR-John Brown; the Cardinals speedy receiver has been ruled out for Week 2. Brown is still dealing with quad issues, but his absence will only open more opportunities for Fitzgerald, wide receiver JJ Nelson, and wide receiver Jauron Brown (0 targets in week 1). Nelson (6 targets in week 1) is the play for me this week.

RB-Devontae Booker; the Broncos running back is expected to miss his second week with the wrist injury that’s kept him sidelined. Even healthy he’s likely buried on the depth chart behind Anderson and Charles. The only impact here is, this may give Charles more window to carve out a larger role in the Broncos running game.

WR-Andrew Luck; the Colts are still without their signal caller and there’s no definitive timetable for a return. As long as Luck is sidelined, you have to downgrade the receivers. Only Hilton holds any fantasy relevance, and even his is risky at best (for now).

WR-Danny Amendola; the Patriots will be without Amendola who suffered a concussion in week 1. Brady owners won’t have to worry, he’s still got plenty of weapons. With Amendola sidelined Cooks and Gronkowski will see their normal share, but wide receiver Chris Hogan could see an uptick of involvement on Sunday.

WR-Eric Decker; the Titans wide receiver is off the injury report which is good new for fantasy owners, but he’s probably still a wait and see. Decker saw 8 targets in week one, but only snagged 3; owners should probably wait until we see more production before rolling him out. He’s a very low-end flex option at best this week.

WR-Jamison Crowder; the Redskins receiver is practicing full and expected to play on Sunday. Crowder had a poor showing in week one, but may have been slowed by injury. He’s healthy and should be ready to go, but the offense looks out of sync. I might look elsewhere if you have options, but he should be worth starting in PPR formats.

RB-Thomas Rawls; the Seahawks will have Rawls for Sunday who has been removed from the team’s injury report. With Rawls available, the Seahawks backfield is a cluster-bunch and hard read. It will be a tough call for fantasy owners to navigate and might be best avoided until head coach Pete Carroll gets his backfield sorted out.

That’s My Take for Week 2.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 16th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 2 Four Horsemen + a Flex

(Bold Predictions)

So I took a beating in week one with injuries (Woodhead), poor performances (Powell), and big disappointment (Crowder). Only my quarterback (Roethlisberger) and tight end (Ertz) came through. Tomorrow’s another week and another shot at My Week 2 Bold Predictions;

Quarterback

Tomorrow Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers will make their first appearance in the 2017. This is expected to be a big year for Winston and tomorrow it should get off to a quick start. It’s a home matchup with the Bears who allowed more than 300 yards passing in week one to Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Winston has a strong arm and all the intangibles to make plays, with an elite receiver like Mike Evans and the newly acquired speedy DeSean Jackson, he’s set up for a big year and (Week 2) Sunday. I’d expect a solid line from Winston; 18 of 26 passing, 246 yards, and 3 touchdowns passing.

Running Back

The Chargers are at home tomorrow and running back Melvin Gordon is ready to have a big home-coming. Last week against a tough Bronco’s defense Gordon was still effective and produced. Last season the Dolphins weren’t bad versus the run, but did allow the 6th most receptions to opposing running backs. Gordon is a dual threat and will be involved in the run and pass game. I’d expect to see him hit 20 touches or so and put up RB1 numbers for week 2; 18 carries for 80 yards, 5 catches for 40 yards, and one touchdown.

Wide Receiver

I like Bucs receiver Mike Evans this week as a DFS stack and as one of my bold predictions here. Yeah, this one is not-so-bold. Evans is big time and with Winston ready to take the next step, Evans is also about to elevate to the next level. In his three year career Evans has averaged nearly 10 targets per game, so owners can count on him to be a big part tomorrow. Evans should have a healthy line of 7 receptions for 100 yards and a score.

Tight End

The Patriots laid an egg in week one and tight end Rob Gronkowski was a non-factor with just two catches for 33 yards. Expect a bounce back performance here in a favorable matchup this week against the Saints. The Patriots will be on the road, but Gronk is too valuable and will be heavily involved this week. The Saints defense played well last week, but did allow a touchdown. Fantasy owners can expect more than just a score from Gronk this week; 6 receptions, 85 yards, and a touchdown.

Flex

The Colts secondary is in a lot of trouble this week, after getting torched by quarterback Jared Goff and the Rams in week 1 for 13 catches, 194 yards and a touchdown all to the receivers. Enter Larry Fitzgerald and the Arizona Cardinals this week. The Cardinals had their own struggles in week one, but the Colts secondary may be just what the doctor prescribed. With corner Vontae Davis expected to miss week 2, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald could be in for some extra work this week. He’s my flex of the week; 8 receptions, 80 yards receiving, and a touchdown.

  

That’s My Take for Week 2.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 15th 2017

Friday Afternoon Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

Here’s my Week 2 lineup for Fan Duel;

QB-Derek Carr ($8,300): The Raiders starter played well on the road last week and this week he gets the lowly Jets who will have to travel across the country. This meeting sets up as a very favorable matchup for Carr. He’s coming off a great 2016 campaign (before getting hurt) and again played well in week one, he’ll likely lead the way again on Sunday.

RB-Melvin Gordon ($7,600): The Chargers running back got plenty of work in week 1 against a tough Broncos defense. He should see similar work in week 2 with greater success playing at home and facing a Dolphins defense that will have to travel across the country. I like Gordon as a top 10 running back this week.

RB-Devonta Freeman ($8,100): Like the Patriots-Saints matchup this week, the Packers-Falcons Sunday night matchup has the prospects of being a high scoring affair. The Freeman and the Falcons will be at home where they seem to be a better team than on the road and this will be a grand-opening of their new stadium. Freeman had a bit of a quiet first week, but in this one I look for him to get plenty of work and put up plenty of points.

WR-Michael Thomas ($8,000) & WR-Brandin Cooks ($7,900): The Saints-Patriots matchup has all of the makings of an old-fashioned western shootout at the O.K. Corral. Both teams have two prolific passers and with secondaries that struggled mightily in week one; need I say more. Both Thomas and Cooks are going to see plenty of shots down the field on each side and could be in for big nights in this Clash of the (quarterback) Titans; Brady versus Brees.

WR-Nelson Agholor ($5,500): The Eagles receiver was effective and open a lot in week one and should remain on his quarterback’s radar in this week 2 road match up with the Chiefs. At his price, he offers great value for a receiver who figures to see his fair share; Agholor was target 8 times turning in a line of 6/86/1 in week 1. Similar numbers could surface on Sunday.

TE-Jared Cook ($5,100): At his price Cook is a great value in a preferable matchup this week. Cook was 5 for 5 (targets & catches) for 56 yards, but could see increased production against a Jets defense surrendered 14.30 fantasy points to the tight end last week. I like him this week as a stack with Carr.

K-Will Lutz ($4,700): With the Patriots coming to town this week, the Sunday affair figures to be a shoot and a lot of points. Lutz should be very busy once again after putting up 14 fantasy points in week 1.

D-Buccaneers ($4,500): I am going with gut instinct here. Bucs will be at home in which should be an emotional game with the recent events. Winston and company should help control tempo and allow the defense to stay aggressive.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 15th 2017

Friday Morning Edition

Friday Fantasy Five

5 Things to Watch this Week

As we enter the second week of the NFL there are always little things each week to keep an eye for and to watch. With week 2 quickly approaching, here are five things I’ll be looking for on Sunday;

#1 Quarterback Jameis Winston

If you been watching this season’s “Hard Knocks” you’ve been following the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and quarterback Jameis Winston. The 3rd year signal caller has been working hard and looks poised and ready to take the next step this season. The Bucs are at home this week facing the Bears and I would have to say the expectation is to see great things from Winston. This will be a favorable matchup against a secondary that allowed over 300 yards passing to Matt Ryan in week 1. I am watching Winston on Sunday.

#2 Vikings Offensive line (Sam Bradford)

In week one the headlines were all about quarterback Sam Bradford’s numbers and the passing game, but a big key to his success starts and ends with his offensive line. Bradford is a former number one draft pick (2010 draft), so someone believed the kid could play at a high level. I believe we saw some of that last Monday night. Bradford’s past struggles can easily be connected to playing on poor offenses and bad teams. The Vikings looked to be a complete team Monday night and as long as the line can protect Bradford and keep him healthy, we could see a lot more of repeat performances of week 1. I’ll be watching the Vikings line on Sunday against the Steelers.

#3 Adrian Peterson

The Saints running game last Monday looked like a train wreck. It seemed head coach Sean Payton was too much trying to juggle his three backs (Peterson, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara) and was struggling to figure out how to use them. You’ve read it, heard it, and I’ll say here too, Peterson looks out of place in this offense. Unless Payton commits to using Peterson more, 9 plays isn’t going to do anything for fantasy owners. Last week Payton definitely favored the rookie (Kamara), but Ingram stayed just as involved. I’ll be watching Peterson closely on Sunday against the Patriots.

#4 Jay Cutler & Devante Parker

This will be week 1 for the Dolphins and a passing combination that owners and myself will be very interested in seeing; Jay Cutler to Devante Parker. The Dolphins made an offseason scramble to pick up Cutler to replace their injured starter Ryan Tannehille. The move seemed sensible reuniting with (head coach) Adam Gase and to fantasy owners this offers a lot of upside for Parker ( a speedier version of Alshon Jeffery). There are a lot of questions with Cutler, but what he showed in the preseason left owners with some promise. This Sunday my focus will be on the duo and hopefully we see some of their big play potential.

#5 Kirk Cousins (& Redskins offense)

Lastly, the fifth thing for me to watch on Sunday will be Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousin and the offense. Coming out of the preseason, there were some discussions about their struggles and hints that it could take a while for the pieces to fall into place. This was quite evident in week one against the Eagles as Cousins completed only 57 percent of his passes, was sacked four times, and the offense only scored 17 points. What will be most interesting to watch is Kirk Cousins under pressure this week facing a tough front four that will feature the return of Rams defensive lineman Aaron Donald. Cousins’ is going to have to make good decisions and get rid of the ball quickly, chemistry with his receivers will be at a premium and I will be watching.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Thursday Night Takes

The Houston Texans will travel to Cincinnati tonight in our Weekly Thursday Night Matchup, and unfortunately for those fans that enjoy lots of points this affair has the makings of an ugly matchup and not a lot of points. That being said, there’s still going to be some fantasy relevance, whether you play or avoid certain play.

Here are some of my Thursday night takes for fantasy owners;

The Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is expected to start. Its unlikely fantasy owners even drafted Watson this season, except for maybe Dynasty leagues, but his matchup this week has the potential of being a train wreck. He’s only played quarterback for a half in the NFL and he’s gets his first start on the road and a short week; nuff said.

Although his quarterback may struggle tremendously tonight, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is almost assured to see a plethora of targets. Even with 16 targets in week one Hopkins was not able to generate much of a big game, but his 4th quarter score was able to salvage the day. Fantasy owners may be able to count on the same happening here tonight, especially if the Bengals get up big.

One area of success the Texans offense may be able to rely on tonight, is the running game led by running back Lamar Miller. The Bengals defense did not struggle too poorly in week one allowing 157 yards on the ground; they held Ravens ball carriers to less than 4 yards per carry on 42 attempts. This one could be close throughout providing Miller plenty of opportunity to accumulate the carries; Miller’s got a good shot at 20 or so carries and 100 yards.

Perhaps the favorite play tonight will be the Bengals Defense. The team is coming off an embarrassing week one loss and with a home game tonight and the prospects of facing a rookie quarterback the thinking could be someone ring the dinner bell. Bengals D should be a DFS streaming favorite this week.

And his name is Dalton; quote from the movie Roadhouse. Unfortunately quarterback Andy Dalton is not our hero, as was displayed in week one. Dalton has a tendency to be like that, cold and hot, so tonight at home could be quite the opposite from last Sunday. I’m not gambling any farms away on this, Dalton should be decent against the Texans, but hardly worth starting.

Fortunately for wide receiver AJ Green, a good game for Dalton only means good things for Green. In week one AJ was targeted 10 times finishing 5/74, he’s going to be featured heavily once again. The Texans do have good corners so owners should not expect a huge game; more in the line with week one numbers, but maybe add a score.

I’m not going to bank on a bounce back game for tight end Tyler Eifert who was targeted just once in week one. He’ll be a part of the passing game plan, but may only put up modest numbers. I, however think he gets a couple of looks in the red-zone tonight and may be able to cash one in. He’s a tough play, especially in DFS.

The area of confusion fantasy owners may have trouble sorting through for tonight’s matchup is the Bengals backfield; running backs Jeremy Hill, Giovanni Bernard, and (rookie) Joe Mixon. There’s no easy read here where the team might commit, but of the three Giovanni looked like the best in week one. Hill and Mixon will get looks on the ground, but if you have to play any of the three I am leaning with Bernard because of his pass catching prowess.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Week 2 TE Rankings (PPR)

1. Rob Gronkowski

2. Travis Kelce

3.  Zach Ertz

4. Jordan Reed

5. Delanie Walker

6. Jimmy Graham

7. Greg Olsen

8. Kyle Rudolph

9. Charles Clay

10. Martellus Bennett

11. Tyler Eifert

12. Coby Fleener

13. Jason Witten

14. Jesse James

15. Jared Cook

16. Austin Hooper

17. Hunter Henry

18. Antonio Gates

19. Cameron Brate

20. Eric Ebron

21. Julius Thomas

22. Evan Engram

23. Jack Doyle

24. Zach Miller

25. George Kittle

He’s the consensus best tight end in the game today and after an uneventful week one, Rob Gronkowski has a mouth-watering matchup this week. He should be featured quite a bit on Sunday and make up for owners his lack of production in week one. The Saints defense has already allowed one touchdown to tight ends this season, I’d expect them to yield at least another.

The biggest riser in my TE rankings this week is Eagles tight end Zach Ertz and the biggest reason was his week one 8 targets. Ertz has a great rapport with his quarterback and is going to see a steady volume of targets week in and week out.

Charles Clay is my No.9 tight end this week. It seems pretty clear he’s going to be Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s security blanket in the passing game. Clay was targeted 9 times in week and was Taylor’s go to in the red-zone connecting for a week 1 score. As long as Clay see’s this kind of action each week, he’s going to be a Top-10 mainstay.

A new name in the Top-20 this week is Raiders tight end Jared Cook; 5 targets, 5 receptions, and 56 yards in week 1. His numbers don’t jump off the page, but paired with quarterback Derek Carr if he can see this kind of work each week, he has a chance to be a viable streaming tight end option and possible low-end TE1 in deep leagues (14-16 teams).

I’ve downgraded both of the both from Los Angeles (Chargers); Hunter Henry and Antonio Gates. Week one was a tough matchup against the Broncos vaunted No Fly Zone, but one thing is clear, there are other weapons available to quarterback Philip Rivers. With the abundance of receivers (and eventual return of rookie WR Mike Williams), the tight ends could be on the short end of the stick when it comes to opportunities (targets).

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Week 2 WR Rankings (PPR)

1.Mike Evans

2. Jordy Nelson

3. Antonio Brown

4. Julio Jones

5. Brandin Cooks

6. Amari Cooper

7. Michael Thomas

8. Odell Beckham Jr

9. AJ Green

10. Larry Fitzgerald

11. Doug Baldwin

12. Keenan Allen

13. Golden Tate

14. Demaryius Thomas

15. Michael Crabtree

16. Stefon Diggs

17.Tyreek Hill

18. DeAndre Hopkins

19. Alshon Jeffery

20. Davante Adams

21. Dez Bryant

22. Terrelle Pryor

23. Adam Thielen

24. Sammy Watkins

25. Kelvin Benjamin

26. Randall Cobb

27. Martavis Bryant

28. Emmanuel Sanders

29. Jeremy Maclin

30. Jarvis Landry/Devante Parker

Even with zero sample size leading into this one, I’ve already bought into “Hard Knocks”, the Buccaneers, and wide receiver Mike Evans. The Bucs fourth year receiver is on the verge of being elite and this could be the season he rises. I like the setup, opening at home, he’s going to come out of the gate huge.

I have Brandin Cooks high on my list this week at No.5. On the road, returning to New Orleans and the Superdome, Patriots fans are going to see what this kid can really do when he gets going downfield. This matchup has the making of a shootout and Cooks should be a huge part.

I’m not down on OBJ this week, just concerned with the injury. I have him Top-10 and he could easily slide into the Top-5 if he’s close to 100 percent. Odell Beckham Jr when healthy is always a big play in the making, at less than 100 percent he can still be productive.

The Cardinals offense and quarterback Carson Palmer struggled terribly week 1, with David Johnson out for 2-3 months Larry Fitzgerald is going to be leaned on heavily. I think Fitz gets peppered all over the field and especially in the red-zone, he’s my No.10 fantasy receiver this week.

I’m not as high on Dez Bryant this week with his pending matchup on the road against the Broncos. There’s no question quarterback Dak Prescott is going to try to work the ball to Dez (9 targets in week 1), but I don’t see a lot of YAC or big plays. Dez ceiling could be limited in this one.

I’ve moved the Vikings Adam Thielen way up considering where he was likely drafted and this is not all based on week 1. Thielen showed a lot of this in the second half of the season last year and it’s quite obvious quarterback Sam Bradford has lots of confidence in his sure handed wide out. Thielen could also benefit from the Steelers having to focus on trying to slow the Vikes other receiver Stefon Diggs.

I have both Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker coming in at No.30 this week. I actually like Landry as the PPR favorite, but I think Parker is going to produce more yards and possibly a score. The pairing with quarterback Jay Cutler just makes too much sense with Parker, but I won’t discount Landry’s involvement, especially as a frequently used safety-valve.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega