FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Afternoon Edition
November 16th 2019

Week 11: DSF Saturday “Favorite Stack”

If you play DFS like I do and have played as long as I have, then you too are familiar with and utilize the “Stack” strategy. Every week, you ‘ll find defenses and running back combos that make sense or quarterbacks and receivers that work well, so looking ahead to week 11, this is my favorite “Double” stack.

The Saints will travel to Tampa this week and although the matchup is outdoors, fI am trusting in quarterback Drew Brees and head coach Sean Payton. The Saints are coming off a poor week 10 performance at home and nothing like a week 11 matchup against the Bucs (ranked last against the pass) to right the ship. The Bucs defense has also allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 235 completions (5th most allowed), and 22 passing touchdowns (3rd most allowed). With those kind of numbers, Brees should bounce back strong.

Along with a shaky Bucs defense, Brees will also have the good fortune of throwing passes to wide receiver Michael Thomas, Fantasy WR3. Thomas leads all receivers this season with 103 targets, 86 receptions, and 1,027 receiving yards. This week Thomas will look to improve his numbers against the Bucs secondary that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including 140 receptions (4th most allowed), 1,894 receiving yards (2nd most allowed), and 15 receiving touchdowns (tied for the most allowed). 

The third part of my stack, is the Saints tight end Jared Cook (Fantasy TE24), who is coming off his most productive game in Week 10, with 6 receptions, 74 yards receiving, off 10 targets (all season highs). For Cook, he should have a great opportunity to continue his productive trend facing a Bucs defense that has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 695 receiving yards (2nd most allowed) and six touchdowns (tied for 3rd most allowed).

Depending on the site and salary cap room, running back Alvin Kamara, could be a consideration as part of this stack. Even though the Bucs have played well against the run, Kamara should be heavily involved in not only the run game, but he’ll also be an integral part of the passing game. I am loving this Stack for Week 11.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

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Wednesday Night Edition

September 19th, 2018

Wednesday’s Weekly Wrap Up 

and Other Non-sense

So Week 2 was a bounce back week in a big way for all of my fantasy teams, largely due to some big games from my studs; Stefon Diggs (9 rec/128 yds/2 tds), Michael Thomas (12 rec/89 yds/2 tds), DeAndre Hopkins, (6 rec/110 yds/1 td), and Brandin Cooks (7 rec/159 yds). Play your studs or start your starters.

I drafted heavy for top tier receivers and benefited greatly in week 2, but not every week is going to go to script. My early picks at the running back are quickly fading with players like rookie Royce Freeman, Dion Lewis, and rookie Ronald Jones. It’s only week 2, so I am not pushing the panic button with Jones or Freeman.

The situation for Jones in Tampa is a little muddled at the moment. With all the success they are having through the air, current starter Peyton Barber (50th ranked RB in PPR), while ineffective on the ground (only averaging 2.6 yards/carry) has been afforded more time to hold the job. Jones will have to earn his way onto the field and when he does, we will see.

In Denver, Freeman (37th ranked RB in PPR) is another concern for me. There’s no question it’s a full-blown committee approach and non-stop rotation. For fellow rookie team-mate, running back Phillip Lindsay (14th ranked RB in PPR), the rotation has not affected his hot hand. Fantasy owners who used an early 4th/5th round draft pick on Freeman will have to remain patient and see how this shakes out. That will be my approach.

In the meantime, with my current RB situation a little in flux, I am streaming guys like Tevin Coleman and Giovani Bernard as starters.

With most of my leagues in the middle of waivers, a couple of streaming options I may be looking at for week 3; with LeSean McCoy banged up, running back Marcus Murphy is drawing some of my attention, and with Leonard Fournette a little dinged up as well, running back Corey Grant (coming off 6 receptions in week 2) may have some flex value.

A couple of noteworthy stashes; I am holding Broncos rookie wide receiver Courtland Sutton in a couple of leagues; his 11 targets in two games has me believing he could an interesting mid-season play. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is stashed nicely on one of my rosters; his week 2 performance has me believing who could be rediscovering his QB form.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

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November 5th 2017

Sunday evening Edition

My Perfect Lineup Week 9

(NFL.com)

Week 9 has begun and it’s time to roll out my Perfect Lineup for this Sunday, but first let’s see how my team looked last week. From the top to the bottom, here’s what we did; QB-Wentz (finished 8th in PPR scoring), RB-Bell (finished 17th), RB-Howard (15th), WR-Green (finished 22nd), WR-Allen (32nd), TE-Gronkowski (4th), PK-Elliott (11th), and D/ST-Bengals (8th). Overall it was not a great day.

Looking ahead, here we go with week 9;

QB-Drew Brees; you have to love Brees at home where he is always tough and the Bucs have big problems this season versus the pass.

RB-Adrian Peterson; the Cards are going to have to become a run first team and we’ve seen what Peterson can do. The Niners are not good against the run, a big day for Peterson awaits.

RB-DeMarco Murray; the Titans running back has had extra time to heal up coming off the bye and the Ravens defense has not been shut down against the run. Murray has only one 100-yard game this season, will be looking for his 2nd today.

WR-Dez Bryant; the matchup today with the Chiefs could be a high scoring affair. Even with Elliott in the lineup today, I think Dez is going to be involved in the plan to attack a secondary that has struggled mightily this season.

WR-Michael Thomas; just going to ride the coattails of Drew Brees with this one. Thomas is the team’s leading receiver and if Brees has a big game, there’s a good chance he’ll be a big part.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end is coming off a big game, but has also emerged as a big part of the offense. This could be another big day for Doyle.

PK-Harrison Butker; the Chiefs-Cowboys today, could be a shootout. I happen to think the Chiefs may stumble a couple of times in the red-zone today, allow a few extra opportunities for Butker.

D/ST-Cardinals; the Niners appear to be in rebuild, no Pierre Garcon, questions in the backfield, and CJ Beathard has to know, he’s not the guy. Although it’s a road game for the Cards, I like to defense to have a big game today.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 15th 2017

Friday Afternoon Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

Here’s my Week 2 lineup for Fan Duel;

QB-Derek Carr ($8,300): The Raiders starter played well on the road last week and this week he gets the lowly Jets who will have to travel across the country. This meeting sets up as a very favorable matchup for Carr. He’s coming off a great 2016 campaign (before getting hurt) and again played well in week one, he’ll likely lead the way again on Sunday.

RB-Melvin Gordon ($7,600): The Chargers running back got plenty of work in week 1 against a tough Broncos defense. He should see similar work in week 2 with greater success playing at home and facing a Dolphins defense that will have to travel across the country. I like Gordon as a top 10 running back this week.

RB-Devonta Freeman ($8,100): Like the Patriots-Saints matchup this week, the Packers-Falcons Sunday night matchup has the prospects of being a high scoring affair. The Freeman and the Falcons will be at home where they seem to be a better team than on the road and this will be a grand-opening of their new stadium. Freeman had a bit of a quiet first week, but in this one I look for him to get plenty of work and put up plenty of points.

WR-Michael Thomas ($8,000) & WR-Brandin Cooks ($7,900): The Saints-Patriots matchup has all of the makings of an old-fashioned western shootout at the O.K. Corral. Both teams have two prolific passers and with secondaries that struggled mightily in week one; need I say more. Both Thomas and Cooks are going to see plenty of shots down the field on each side and could be in for big nights in this Clash of the (quarterback) Titans; Brady versus Brees.

WR-Nelson Agholor ($5,500): The Eagles receiver was effective and open a lot in week one and should remain on his quarterback’s radar in this week 2 road match up with the Chiefs. At his price, he offers great value for a receiver who figures to see his fair share; Agholor was target 8 times turning in a line of 6/86/1 in week 1. Similar numbers could surface on Sunday.

TE-Jared Cook ($5,100): At his price Cook is a great value in a preferable matchup this week. Cook was 5 for 5 (targets & catches) for 56 yards, but could see increased production against a Jets defense surrendered 14.30 fantasy points to the tight end last week. I like him this week as a stack with Carr.

K-Will Lutz ($4,700): With the Patriots coming to town this week, the Sunday affair figures to be a shoot and a lot of points. Lutz should be very busy once again after putting up 14 fantasy points in week 1.

D-Buccaneers ($4,500): I am going with gut instinct here. Bucs will be at home in which should be an emotional game with the recent events. Winston and company should help control tempo and allow the defense to stay aggressive.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 8th 2017

Friday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

Drafting gets you nowhere unless you know who to take and when. I’ve completed a large number of drafts and like when I started, there is just so much to remember. Good thing for you I like to share a lot of useless knowledge that will only confuse and bewilder you, but hey at the very least it may give you some idea what you might expect from some of these players I am about to mention. To continue with my current theme, here are the fantasy wide receivers.

Fantasy Wide Receivers

AJ Green

In Cincinnati there is wide receiver AJ Green and in the Bengals passing there is only AJ Green. Yes, there are a couple of “other guys”, but Green is the only one I am targeting and he’s someone worth taking as early as the number 7 or 8 pick in fantasy drafts. Green only played in 10 games last season, but when he exited he as the No.4 fantasy wide receiver in 2016 with 66 receptions, 964 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns; he was on his way to a monster season. He’s back, he’s healthy, and still quarterback Andy Dalton’s clear cut number one primary. Expect Green to wash, rinse, and repeat in 2017.

Brandin Cooks

No, Cooks is not the next Randy Moss in New England, but he is the first Brandin Cooks and with him he brings a lot of dynamic explosiveness and excitement to the Patriots passing game (especially with Tom Brady under center). Last season Cooks was a fantasy stud in New Orleans finishing as the No.10 fantasy receiver in PPR (according to Fantasy Data) with 78 receptions, 1,173 yards receiving, and 8 touchdowns. Brady is an accurate deep ball thrower and Cooks seems to be a specialist in this field; I like him early and often in fantasy drafts. He’s in the same tier as AJ Green, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson.

Michael Thomas

The Saints 2nd year receiver Michael Thomas is someone whose basket I will be putting a lot of my eggs in. As a rookie he finished in the Top-10 for fantasy receivers in Standard and PPR leagues; he’s a lot of catches guy and a Touchdown-guy with 9 scores last season. With the departure of Cooks, there should be a few more opportunities to score. Thomas’ stock is on the rise and he’s another early receiver that’s going to have a big season. By the year end he could belong in the second tier conversation.

Alshon Jeffery

The big question for new Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is can he stay healthy. A fair question yes, and if he can he’s a huge target and can easily be a Top-10 fantasy receiver. I really like Jeffery as a mid WR2 this season with some upside to go, he’s a solid 2nd receiver pick for your fantasy team. I like his quarterback, Carson Wentz (he’s up and coming). Paired with the capable receiving tight end Zach Ertz, Jeffery has a real legit shot to return to top-flite.

Demaryius Thomas

The Broncos wide receiver has been as steady as they come as far as fantasy receivers go; five straight seasons with 90 catches and 1,000 yards. It’s safe to say Thomas is about as safe a fantasy receiver pick as you can find. He’ll have his same quarterback (whom fantasy owner's hope will improve this season), so it’s reasonable to think he can match last season’s totals. Thomas is projected around the No.16 fantasy receiver this season and a favorite of mine as a mid-to-low WR2.

Travis Benjamin

Let me get this out of the way first, I love Keenan Allen and believe he’s back and in line for a big season, but another Charger receiver I am enamored with is Travis Benjamin. Benjamin has got electric speed and with quarterback Philip Rivers already displaying their big play potential in the preseason (the two connected on a 74-yarder in week 3). Benjamin started 8 games for the Chargers last season finishing with a line of 47-677-4. He’s a late round flier with potential upside that I am big on. He’s going to be available on week 1 waiver wires and fantasy owners should keep their eyes on him.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up Fantasy tight ends

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August 19th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Sleeper Watch

So what is a real sleeper in fantasy? I actually don’t know what the true definition is, but by my calculation it’s a player that greatly outperforms their draft day position. These are players that are not expected to perform to the same value as players taken well ahead of them.

For example, let’s take a look at last year; the Saints rookie wide receiver Michael Thomas per Fantasy Football Calculator had an overall ADP of 123.5 going behind players like Markus Wheaton and Kamar Aiken. Thomas finished 2016 as the number 7 wide receiver in PPR (per Fantasy Pros).

This years crops of candidates that I believe will outperform their current ADP include the Redskins wide receiver Pierre Garcon (79 receptions, 1,046 yards receiving in 2016). After finishing the season as the number 23 fantasy receiver in PPR (per Fantasy Data), his current ADP of 88.8 (per FFC) puts him around the 8th and 9th rounds of most drafts and the number 36 receiver (a WR3/WR4) being taken off the board. Garcon is in a new place but playing for a familiar face; head coach Kyle Shanahan. When the two last got together in Washington back in 2013, Garcon posted a stat line of 182 targets, 113 receptions, 1,346 yards receiving, and 5 touchdowns. This season he is in line to take on the primary receiver role in San Francisco, so we can expect to see him numbers rise significantly from a year ago.

Over in Arizona, they have an explosive and talented receiver in John Brown, current ADP 106.7 (per FFC). Last season Brown struggled with health issues finishing with just 39 catches, 517 yards receiving, and 2 touchdowns; good enough to finish well outside the top 50 fantasy receivers in PPR. Rumors are Brown has worked extremely hard this offseason to get himself healthy, stronger, and back on the field. There’s no question that Brown (65 catches, 1,003 yards receiving, 7 touchdowns in 2015) has the skills and ability to be a difference maker. Brown does come with some risk, but with Larry Fitzgerald a little older, Michael Floyd gone, this season would appear to be a great opportunity for JB to shine (if he can stay healthy).

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

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August 17th 2017

Thursday Night Edition

Fantasy Draft Watch 

The Good Hands of Fantasy

Drafts boards are quickly filling up and lots of names are getting tossed around, so I am just sharing some names that I believe are worth watching for during your upcoming fantasy drafts.

Let’s take a look at the good hands folks for this season.

In Los Angeles one my early to mid-round favorites this season is Keenan Allen, The Chargers top wide receiver has had a run of bad luck, but if you look at his first two seasons, he played in 29 of 32 games. In those first two seasons Allen averaged 112.5 targets, 74 receptions, 914.5 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns; this is likely his floor. A more polished receiver now, only back in 2015 he was on pace (after 8 games) to snag 134 balls for 1,450 yards and 8 touchdowns (this could be his ceiling). If he’s back to 100 percent health, with Philip Rivers under center he’s got WR1 elite upside.

With Brandin Cooks getting traded to the Patriots, the stage is set for 2nd year receiver Michael Thomas. After a huge rookie campaign with 92 receptions and 1,137 yards receiving, Thomas figures to be Drew Brees primary weapon this season. In his rookie stint Thomas saw his fair share of targets with 121, fantasy owners can expect that number to climb greatly with Cooks and his 117 targets departing this offseason. More targets can only mean the likelihood of greater production; owners should target Thomas (who finished as the number 9 fantasy receiver in PPR last season) early in drafts.

We’ve got a lot of time until the season kicks off and I have many players to share, so one more for tonight.

There have been a lot of changes in Washington during the off-season, but perhaps one of the biggest with fantasy implications that I like is the addition of wide receiver Terrelle Pryor. The converted receiver in his 5th year brings a huge 6’4” frame to Washington’s passing game and could be a huge benefactor in the red zone. Last season Pryor converted 3 of 4 targets inside the 10 for three touchdowns; with Kirk Cousins passing the ball those numbers could rise dramatically in 2017. Pryor finished as the number 18 fantasy receiver in PPR last season with 140 targets last season. His targets total from last season could be right in line for 2017, but owners can expect a much better completion ratio this season. Pryor is being drafted around the 3rd round which is pretty par for the course as a low WR2 with some upside.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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January 1st, 2017
Sunday Morning Edition

My Perfect Lineup

With one week left to play regular season fantasy, here is my Draftday Perfect Lineup.

QB-Matt Ryan - Ryan has been hot all season and today he gets a Saints defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

RB-David Johnson - Johnson has been the Cardinals MVP this season, so you have to wonder how long he’ll play. Regardless, while he’s in there he should dominate touches and could find the end zone a couple of times.

RB-Bilal Powell - Bills run defense has been awful this season, allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the past four weeks and Powell will get his crack at them today.

WR-Julio Jones - With Ryan playing as well as he has, when healthy Jones has been a monster. He’s back today and the Saints defense should be scared.

WR-Jordy Nelson - the Packers wideout has looked like his old self of late and today he faces the Lions defense that has surrendered the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

WR-Michael Thomas - the Saints-Falcons games is lining up to be a high scoring affair today and with Brees tossing the pigskin, any of his receivers has a chance at a big game. Expect Thomas to add to his 8 touchdown total.

TE-Travis Kelce - the Chiefs tight end has been a force at times and averaging better than 9 targets per game over his last six, he’s in line for another busy and productive Sunday.

PK-Justin Tucker - the Ravens kicker has been money all season. The Bengals may keep the Flacco and company out of the end zone, but Tucker will put points on the board.

DEF-Broncos - no Derek Carr today, coming off a humiliating loss, and having lost the first matchup with the Raiders this season, expect Wade Phillips to stack the line and turn the dogs loose today.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega