FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 12th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Who Are You Starting & Sitting

A lot of games on the slate today for Sunday Week 10 and with fantasy playoffs fast approaching it begs the obvious question, who are you starting and sitting today?

GB @ CHI

The Bears have a pretty good defense, so I am not expecting much from the Packers offense. I am sitting Ty Montgomery today. With Aaron Jones having earned the starting backfield duties, Montgomery will be limited. Since returning from injury Montgomery is averaging just 7.3 touches per game.

CLE @ DET

The Browns do a pretty good job against the run and the Lions don’t run the ball well, so I am starting Marvin Jones Jr. The Lions will once again have to rely on Stafford and the pass and Jones (No.15 fantasy WR in PPR) has been trending upward for weeks now.

PIT @ IND

With Martavis Bryant back and the emergence of JuJu Smith-Schuster, I am starting Big Ben today. He’ll be a JuJu-Bee special today against the Colts!

LAC @ JAX

The Jags are tough against the pass and while I might not be sitting Keenan Allen today (but not expecting a lot), I am starting running back Melvin Gordon. Gordon is the No.5 fantasy RB in PPR and the Jags yield a lot of yards on the ground (125 yds/game).

NO @ BUF

The Saints have been good this season, but traditionally they do not travel well. That being the case here, they will have a tough matchup against a good Bills defense. While I’d be nervous starting any of the Saints, I am starting running back Alvin Kamara. He’ll see his usual workload today and I love his contributions in the pass game; 37 receptions this season.

NYJ @ TB

With a road game today, I am starting Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson against a terrible Bucs defense. Anderson has been trending in the right direction and the Bucs allow the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

MIN @ WASH

With Redskins tight end Jordan Reed on the shelf for Sunday, I am starting Vernon Davis. I am not expecting a big output, but he should provide decent numbers for owners in a bind today.

CIN @ TEN

After five straight games with less than 60 rushing yards, I am sitting Titans running back DeMarco Murray. Murray has been dinged up most of the season. He doesn’t look right, he’s not producing, and right now he’s too risky to trust.

HOU @ LAR

With the Rams rolling and the offense playing well this season, I am starting quarterback Jared Goff. The 2nd year passer has played very well this season and I love this matchup against the Texans at home. Over the past two weeks, the Texans secondary has been toasted for 760 yards passing and 6 touchdowns.

DAL @ ATL

This game is being forecasted as a potential shootout and along with Julio Jones, I will be starting Falcons wide receiver Mohamed Sanu. The Cowboys have allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing receivers and with a lot of attention focused on Julio, I think Sanu sneaks one in.

NYG @ SF

With a road matchup today with the Niners, I am starting Giants running back Orleans Darkwa against one of the league’s worst run defenses (allow 135.6 yards/game). I expect to see Darkwa receive a heavy workload and have success today.

NE @ DEN

The Broncos offense has struggled mightily for several weeks now, but tonight against the Patriots I am starting wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. The Broncos receiver is coming off a 8/70/1 stat line; he’ll the main focal point of the pass game against secondary that has allowed the 5th most receptions and 3rd most receiving yards to opposing receivers.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 30th 2017

Monday Morning Edition

Monday Night Takes
(Week 8)

It’s a divisional matchup, a meeting of two potential playoff contenders, and as always a heated AFC West rivalry when the Broncos and the Chiefs clash. Tonight’s meeting shouldn’t disappoint fantasy owners with the Chiefs Alex Smith, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt playing host to the Broncos Trevor Siemian, Demaryius Thomas, and Jamaal Charles.

This could be a tale of two cities or two teams. This season the Chiefs offense (ranked 2nd in total yards, 3rd in scoring) has been off the charts with Smith having an MVP-like season passing the ball, and the emergence of rookie running back Kareem Hunt; he’s been sensational out of the gate.

On the other side, it’s been a different story for Siemian and the Broncos (ranked 15th total yards and 24 in scoring). The Broncos defense has been good this season, but against a team like the Chiefs, they’ll need some help from the offense in this one.

My Takes.

QB-Alex Smith; the Chiefs signal caller has been good this season, but an improved pass rush with the return of Broncos linebacker Shane Ray could slow his roll on Monday night. Fantasy owners looking for a big game from Smith should temper their expectations.

RB-Kareem Hunt; as good as this kid has been this season, it’s hard to imagine any team shutting him down. He was held in check two weeks ago by the Steelers with just 21 rushing yards, but he still managed 89 receiving. The Broncos could keep him bottled up most of the night, but with his volume of touches he should still see double-digit fantasy points.

WR-Demarcus Robinson; it’s going to be tough night for the Chiefs passing game, but with a lot of focus on Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce (who will both get their usual opportunities), I like Robinson flying under the radar. He won’t be in for a big night, but he may be able to match his season highs in receptions and yards.

TE-Travis Kelce; if the Broncos defense has a weakness it appears to be covering opposing tight ends. Kelce should be heavily involved tonight and could have a big night. With the defenses concerns focused on stopping Smith and Hunt in the backfield, Kelce is a safe play for owners.

QB-Trevor Siemian; the Broncos passer has not been a fantasy option in weeks and with a tough road matchup (in Arrowhead) on Monday night, I’m not expecting Trevor to summon his inner Peyton. He could have a decent night against a struggling Chiefs secondary, but he’s still not a fantasy option in this matchup.

RB-Jamaal Charles; the Broncos are likely to stick with their ineffective game script of going with CJ Anderson (so he’s the much safer play tonight) early and sprinkling in Charles at times. Being that this is Charles’ old team, the revenge factor does come up. If Charles can break loose for a couple of big plays, this could open up more snaps and touches. Charles has been the more explosive and efficient option this season, the question is will head coach Vance Joseph take a longer look at his speedy back tonight. Charles is too risky for redraft lineups, but could be a flier option in DFS.

WR-Demaryius Thomas; it all comes down to his quarterback, how well DT plays or produces. The offense has been woeful, but thankfully they get a struggling secondary tonight. The bad thing is the game is on the road in Arrowhead where emotions will run high and that could be enough to change things.Regardless of the success or lack of, DT should see enough targets to provide his usual safe (in PPR) 5 for 55.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 15th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Who are you Starting & Sitting?

(Week 6)

QB-Trevor Siemian (start) The Giants look to be a mess this week. Decimated with injuries on the offensive side and a defense filled with drama and a suspension, this could be a good week to strike. The Broncos will lead with the running game, but look for Siemian to capitalize on some play-action and take shots. With DT and Sanders healthy, Siemian provides streaming option fantasy value this week.

QB-Eli Manning (sit) In the same game with his receiving corps completely wiped out last week, entering Mile High Country to take on the No Fly Zone, it's going to be a long night for Manning. Expect up close and personal introductions from lineback Von Miller and defensive lineman Derek Wolfe to occupy Manning's evening. Avoid this disaster in the making.

RB-Ty Montgomery (start) I would be surprised to see Montgomery picking up too many carries today. It would be more in line and make sense to see Montgomery almost exclusively involved in the passing game, defering most carries to rookie Aaron Jones. Nonetheless, I expect Montgomery to see enough touches and total enough yards to provide double-digit fantasy points in PPR today. He's a mid flex option today.

RB-Elijah McGuire (start) With no Powell and a less than 100 percent Matt Forte (turf toe), I like the rookie to get plenty of run in a favorable matchup against the Patriots. Count on McGuire to see 15+ touches today, enough to offer flex value in week 6.

RB-Adrian Peterson (Sit) It's too early to know what you have with Peterson in Arizona. The Cardinals are a pass first offense and it may take a while for All-Day to change that, if he's got anything left in the tank. The Cards also have one of the poorer O-lines in the run. Peterson's too risky to start this week.

WR-John Brown (start) Following the same theme with sitting Peterson, a healthy John Brown is a good start in Week 6 against the Buccaneers secondary. Brown has playmaking ability and the Bucs are a poor defense agains the pass, start Brown this week. He's a strong flex candidate.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Week 2 WR Rankings (PPR)

1.Mike Evans

2. Jordy Nelson

3. Antonio Brown

4. Julio Jones

5. Brandin Cooks

6. Amari Cooper

7. Michael Thomas

8. Odell Beckham Jr

9. AJ Green

10. Larry Fitzgerald

11. Doug Baldwin

12. Keenan Allen

13. Golden Tate

14. Demaryius Thomas

15. Michael Crabtree

16. Stefon Diggs

17.Tyreek Hill

18. DeAndre Hopkins

19. Alshon Jeffery

20. Davante Adams

21. Dez Bryant

22. Terrelle Pryor

23. Adam Thielen

24. Sammy Watkins

25. Kelvin Benjamin

26. Randall Cobb

27. Martavis Bryant

28. Emmanuel Sanders

29. Jeremy Maclin

30. Jarvis Landry/Devante Parker

Even with zero sample size leading into this one, I’ve already bought into “Hard Knocks”, the Buccaneers, and wide receiver Mike Evans. The Bucs fourth year receiver is on the verge of being elite and this could be the season he rises. I like the setup, opening at home, he’s going to come out of the gate huge.

I have Brandin Cooks high on my list this week at No.5. On the road, returning to New Orleans and the Superdome, Patriots fans are going to see what this kid can really do when he gets going downfield. This matchup has the making of a shootout and Cooks should be a huge part.

I’m not down on OBJ this week, just concerned with the injury. I have him Top-10 and he could easily slide into the Top-5 if he’s close to 100 percent. Odell Beckham Jr when healthy is always a big play in the making, at less than 100 percent he can still be productive.

The Cardinals offense and quarterback Carson Palmer struggled terribly week 1, with David Johnson out for 2-3 months Larry Fitzgerald is going to be leaned on heavily. I think Fitz gets peppered all over the field and especially in the red-zone, he’s my No.10 fantasy receiver this week.

I’m not as high on Dez Bryant this week with his pending matchup on the road against the Broncos. There’s no question quarterback Dak Prescott is going to try to work the ball to Dez (9 targets in week 1), but I don’t see a lot of YAC or big plays. Dez ceiling could be limited in this one.

I’ve moved the Vikings Adam Thielen way up considering where he was likely drafted and this is not all based on week 1. Thielen showed a lot of this in the second half of the season last year and it’s quite obvious quarterback Sam Bradford has lots of confidence in his sure handed wide out. Thielen could also benefit from the Steelers having to focus on trying to slow the Vikes other receiver Stefon Diggs.

I have both Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker coming in at No.30 this week. I actually like Landry as the PPR favorite, but I think Parker is going to produce more yards and possibly a score. The pairing with quarterback Jay Cutler just makes too much sense with Parker, but I won’t discount Landry’s involvement, especially as a frequently used safety-valve.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 11th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

It’s Monday Night Football tonight and for the season’s opening week, fantasy owners will be treated with two games. These are just some of my favorite plays for tonight’s matchups;

Michael Thomas (Saints-WR) The Saints 2nd year wideout will have a tough matchup against the Vikings secondary, but with Brees calling the signals he should be fine to start.

Adrian Peterson (Saints-RB) It’s hard to see what exactly Peterson’s role will be in the Saints game plan, but he figures to be involved in the ground game and could be featured in short-yardage and goal-line. He could be a nice flex vulturing a couple of short scores tonight.

Dalvin Cook (Vikings-RB) The Vikings rookie could be featured tonight in the running game and could find a lot of success against the Saints run defense. He’s a strong play tonight with an expected steady diet of upward to 20-plus touches.

Stefon Diggs (Vikings-WR) The game plan for Minnesota will likely be the ground game, but expect Sam Bradford and his primary target (Diggs) to find success in the air against a Saints secondary that allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season.

Melvin Gordon (Chargers-RB) Although the Broncos enter the 2017 season with one of the best defenses in the league, fantasy owners should still expect Gordon to have success tonight as a dual threat. Last season Gordon finished 2016 with 41 receptions to go with his 997 yards rushing and as well as the Broncos secondary played a season ago, their defense allowed over 4.0 yards per carry.

Demaryius Thomas (Broncos-WR) The Broncos offense this preseason had lot of the same look as last season, underwhelming. And while the lack flash, Thomas brings consistency. He averaged 10 targets per game in two contests last season; with that kind of opportunity tonight he should post nice numbers. He’s a safe play tonight.

Sleeper plays

Ted Ginn Jr (Saints-WR) With wide receiver Willie Snead out, a beneficiary in the pass game could be veteran receiver Ginn Jr. He’s still got blazing speed and could get behind the defense for long one tonight. Until we see more from Ginn, he’s strictly a flex option and interesting flier in DFS.

Hunter Henry (Chargers-TE) Likely drafted a TE2, Henry should be more involved in the pass this season and could have TE1 upside. Last season in their first matchup with Denver Henry was targeted 8 times and turned in a 6/75/1 line. Keenan Allen and Tyrell Williams should keep the corners busy all night, making Henry a nice MNF sleeper play.

Jamaal Charles (Broncos-RB) I’m calling my shot here. I believe the Broncos want to make a concerted effort to run this season and will start tonight. Both running backs, CJ Anderson and Charles could get plenty of opportunity; don’t be surprised if Charles out performs Anderson. Charles is too risky to play tonight, but you may want to race to the waiver wire line following the game.

That’s My Monday Night Take!

~David Ortega

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September 8th 2017

Friday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

Drafting gets you nowhere unless you know who to take and when. I’ve completed a large number of drafts and like when I started, there is just so much to remember. Good thing for you I like to share a lot of useless knowledge that will only confuse and bewilder you, but hey at the very least it may give you some idea what you might expect from some of these players I am about to mention. To continue with my current theme, here are the fantasy wide receivers.

Fantasy Wide Receivers

AJ Green

In Cincinnati there is wide receiver AJ Green and in the Bengals passing there is only AJ Green. Yes, there are a couple of “other guys”, but Green is the only one I am targeting and he’s someone worth taking as early as the number 7 or 8 pick in fantasy drafts. Green only played in 10 games last season, but when he exited he as the No.4 fantasy wide receiver in 2016 with 66 receptions, 964 yards receiving and 4 touchdowns; he was on his way to a monster season. He’s back, he’s healthy, and still quarterback Andy Dalton’s clear cut number one primary. Expect Green to wash, rinse, and repeat in 2017.

Brandin Cooks

No, Cooks is not the next Randy Moss in New England, but he is the first Brandin Cooks and with him he brings a lot of dynamic explosiveness and excitement to the Patriots passing game (especially with Tom Brady under center). Last season Cooks was a fantasy stud in New Orleans finishing as the No.10 fantasy receiver in PPR (according to Fantasy Data) with 78 receptions, 1,173 yards receiving, and 8 touchdowns. Brady is an accurate deep ball thrower and Cooks seems to be a specialist in this field; I like him early and often in fantasy drafts. He’s in the same tier as AJ Green, Mike Evans, and Jordy Nelson.

Michael Thomas

The Saints 2nd year receiver Michael Thomas is someone whose basket I will be putting a lot of my eggs in. As a rookie he finished in the Top-10 for fantasy receivers in Standard and PPR leagues; he’s a lot of catches guy and a Touchdown-guy with 9 scores last season. With the departure of Cooks, there should be a few more opportunities to score. Thomas’ stock is on the rise and he’s another early receiver that’s going to have a big season. By the year end he could belong in the second tier conversation.

Alshon Jeffery

The big question for new Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery is can he stay healthy. A fair question yes, and if he can he’s a huge target and can easily be a Top-10 fantasy receiver. I really like Jeffery as a mid WR2 this season with some upside to go, he’s a solid 2nd receiver pick for your fantasy team. I like his quarterback, Carson Wentz (he’s up and coming). Paired with the capable receiving tight end Zach Ertz, Jeffery has a real legit shot to return to top-flite.

Demaryius Thomas

The Broncos wide receiver has been as steady as they come as far as fantasy receivers go; five straight seasons with 90 catches and 1,000 yards. It’s safe to say Thomas is about as safe a fantasy receiver pick as you can find. He’ll have his same quarterback (whom fantasy owner's hope will improve this season), so it’s reasonable to think he can match last season’s totals. Thomas is projected around the No.16 fantasy receiver this season and a favorite of mine as a mid-to-low WR2.

Travis Benjamin

Let me get this out of the way first, I love Keenan Allen and believe he’s back and in line for a big season, but another Charger receiver I am enamored with is Travis Benjamin. Benjamin has got electric speed and with quarterback Philip Rivers already displaying their big play potential in the preseason (the two connected on a 74-yarder in week 3). Benjamin started 8 games for the Chargers last season finishing with a line of 47-677-4. He’s a late round flier with potential upside that I am big on. He’s going to be available on week 1 waiver wires and fantasy owners should keep their eyes on him.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up Fantasy tight ends

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

December 11th, 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Starts

Per Adam Schefter, the Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian will start today. That’s enough for me to roll out wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. In his previous five starts with Siemian under center, Thomas is averaging nearly 10 targets per game. The Titans allow the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and over the past four weeks, their secondary has been the worst. Start Thomas!

The Vikings and wide receiver Stefon Diggs will face the Jaguars today in Jacksonville and while on paper the matchup may not seem all to appealing, I am leaning with Diggs. The Jags have been stingy for the most part this season, but coming off a strong showing (8 receptions off 8 targets) against the Cowboys Diggs will be tough to slow down. Diggs is the Vikings number one receiver, healthy again look for double-digits and lots of chances to be the case today. Start Diggs.

Another receiver I am leaning on heavily for Sunday, the Falcons Taylor Gabriel. The Falcons wideout plays more like a scat-back and his speed is deadly. With Julio Jones banged up and not looking good for Sunday I expect Gabriel to see a huge uptick in his weekly 5.25 targets per game that he’s enjoyed the past four weeks. Facing the Rams could see him improve his 4 touchdown total this week. Over the past two weeks, the Rams secondary has been awful versus opposing wide receivers allowing the 5th most fantasy points, including 4 touchdowns. Start Gabriel!

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

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October 3rd 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Week 4 Fantasy Notes and Picks 

We are a little less than an hour from the morning games kicking off, so with a couple of games already in the books (or just about-Ind @ Jax in 4th quarter), I am just taking a peak at the day ahead...

My Top 10 WR's for Week 4
(Sunday Only)

1. Demaryius Thomas - prime matchup for a big day
2. Julio Jones - unstoppable, will still post numbers.
3. Brandin Cooks - Chargers will have hands full.
4. DeSean Jackson - always the big play threat.
5. Antonio Brown - can't stop him, only try to contain.
6. DeAndre Hopkins - he will get open today.
7. Alshon Jeffrey - Lions secondary will have hands full.
8. Travis Benjamin - could be a shootout today.
9. Doug Baldwin - like his matchup today on road.
10. Mike Wallace - matchup is too good to pass up.

Looking at some prime DFS plays, I am putting my stock in Kelvin Benjamin today against the Falcons secondary, 4 touchdowns allowed to wide receivers and 8 scores allowed in the red-zone.

I am also running with Dennis Pitta at tight end. Pitta faces the Raiders today, allowing the 6th most receiving yards to opposing tight ends. Pitta has been seeing a lot of work as well; 20 targets in his last two games.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega

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September 30th 2016
Friday Evening Edition

Friday Fantasy Fix

We've got three weeks in the books and whether or not it's enough info to accurately predict outcomes and performances, doesn't matter I am going to offer my two cents nonetheless.

Here are just some notes, observations, and ridiculous predictions for week 4 of the NFL.

Must Plays...

With 2nd year quarterback Trevor Siemian seemingly growing up week-to-week right before our eyes, there's little doubt the Buccaneers defense is going to challenge the young gunslinger. Last week it was Emmanuel Sanders rising up with the big day, this week I like Demaryius Thomas to come up big. Thomas was only targeted 7 times last week, but still came up big with a solid fantasy day. This week I am expecting even greater.

The Cardinals will have a tough divisional matchup this Sunday against the Rams, but that shouldn't matter to wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. The 13-year vet leads the team in targets, receptions, yards receiving, and touchdowns, by far and it's not even close. Fitz doesn't look like he's lost a step and this week's matchup should be just another one for books. In two matchups last season, Fitz was targeted 20 times and caught 15 balls. He only totaled 154 yards and didn't score, but this year the savvy vet seems to be finding his way to the end zone. If he gets enough looks, he's going to produce.

I am sure if you've been like me, you have been counting the first three weeks just waiting for Steelers running back LeVeon Bell's suspension to end. Now that it has, it's time to play the kid and expect a heavy does of Bell on Sunday. He's a dual threat who may not see 20 plus carries, but he'll be active in the pass game and be one of Sunday's PPR darlings in week 4. Fantasy owners also note, the Chiefs allow the 11th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed the 7th most rushing yards this season.

Plan B...

If your starter is on a by this week and you have to go to plan B, the Panthers running back Fozzy Whittaker could provide the needed relief. Last week he was stifled against a tough Vikings defensive front, but should have find greater success this week against the Falcons. In three games this season the Atlanta defense is 22nd versus the run and allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Another plan B play for week 4 is Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian. He's definitely not playing like a second year quarterback and he has plenty of weapons to dispurse the ball to. The Buccaneers defense will likely stack the box and try to make the kid beat them with his arm; which he may be able to do. Last week Siemian passed for over 300 yards, he could very well follow up with an encorE performance.

Sleepers...

The Saints are on the road this week in San Diego and if you are thinking of playing running back Travaris Cadet, this could be the week. In PPR formats, Cadet could be looking at a big week agains the Chargers defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and has allowed the second most receptions. Cadet is a pass-catching specialist and already has 11 receptions (tied for 8th in NFL for RBs) on 16 targets (tied for 8th in NFL for RBs) this season.

This may not be a true sleeper play, but it's borderline especially in redraft leagues where this guy may not have even made any fantasy teams. They have not played a lot, just three games this season, but I like the combination of wide receiver Mike Wallace's speed and quarterback Joe Flacco's big arm. This Sunday the Ravens host the Raiders, a.k.a the big air secondary; that is the Raiders give up a lot of big plays and Wallace was made for the big play. Wallace is seeing a steady diet of targets thus far and this should continue into Sunday. The Raiders have allowed 16 pass plays of 20 yards or more already this season, which only means Wallace and Flacco will add to that total.

Flyers...

So far this season the Bears have had little to cheer about, but at least fantasy owners have tight end Zach Miller. Last week the former Jaguar had his best game of the season with 8 grabs for 78 yards and two scores. Now he may not score twice again this season, but this week against the Lions secondary worst against opposing tight ends he's looks to be lock to find pay dirt. The Lions allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have surrendered five touchdowns in just three games. I would expect the Bears to be looking for Miller in the red zone on Sunday.

Waiting list...

The Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles is expected to see action for the first time this season on Sunday, but if you drafted Jam expecting him to return to form this is probably not the week. Fantasy owners should lower their expectations. In deeper formats, you may have to roll the dice and take a shot, but if you have options this may be a play worth waiting on.

That's my take for Week 4.

~David G. Ortega