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October 18th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Sunday At A Glance 

(Week 6)

Watson continues to Own it on Sundays

The Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is having a season to remember. Against the Browns the rookie was superb once again completing 17 of 29 passes for 225 yards and three more touchdown passes. His numbers had him ranked as the No.2 fantasy QB for the week and it was his fourth straight game with at least 20 fantasy points.

Cousins is rolling now.

After a slow this season, it seems Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins is rolling now. On Sunday Cousins completed 25 of 37 passes for 330 yards, adding three touchdowns; 2 pass, 1 run. This was Cousins third consecutive game with at least 20 fantasy points; during the stretch he has 915 passing yards and 8 total touchdowns. Yeah, he’s rolling now.

Dion Lewis Provides a spark.

With normal starting running back Mike Gillislee seemingly stuck in neutral on Sunday, the Patriots turned to Dion Lewis (who started on Sunday). Gillislee was running well gaining 44 yards on the ground before a first half fumble sent him to the sidelines for an early stretch. Enter Lewis and the spark the Patriots offense needed. Down by 14 points early, Lewis took handle of the run game reigns and total 52 yards on 11 carries, including a one-yard plunge in the 2nd quarter to get the Patriots on the board. With Gillislee in a touchdown drought (since week 2), fantasy owners may see Lewis role in the offense continue to grow.

Steelers find a hole in Chiefs defense.

And just when you thought they were formidable, the struggling Steelers show up and crash the Chiefs home celebration and spoil their undefeated start. Steelers Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger bounced back from an ugly week 5 showing to dice up the Chiefs defense for 250 yards passing and nearly 200 yards rushing. It was the Steelers best offensive output of the season, although they could only muster 19 points. Running back Le’Veon Bell led the way with 179 yards rushing, while Antonio Brown was a huge factor as well with 8 receptions for 155 receiving yards and a score. They looked formidable when the week started, but the Steelers may have just found some cracks in the Chief’s armor.

Fitz and Peterson; The Newest Dynamic Duo

With the arrival of running back Adrian Peterson, the Cardinals rushing offense received a huge and badly needed injection. The Cards entered the week as one of the worst rushing offenses in the league, but finished as the 6th leading rushing team for the week. Coincidently with Peterson in the backfield, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald decided to take a dip in the fountain of youth turning in a stat line of 10/138/1; good enough for the No.2 fantasy WR for the week (in PPR). And oh yeah, that Peterson fella just managed 134 yards rushing on 26 carries with 2 touchdowns; he was the No.4 fantasy RB in PPR (No.2 in standard).

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 7th 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Week 5 WR Rankings

(does not include Thursday’s game)

Look who’s at the top for Week 5, OBJ. It’s probably not a surprise, but maybe it should be. Through the first 4 weeks, Odell Beckham Jr has been one of the season’s early disappointments entering this week as the No.19 fantasy WR, three spots behind his teammate Sterling Shepard. At 19, OBJ has been playable every week, but this could be the week that elevates Beckham Jr back to the top. The Giants are home this week playing host to the Los Angeles Chargers who allow the 12th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Most important the Chargers have allowed 6 touchdowns to WRs, playing right into the hands of the Giants dynamic and playmaking receiver. OBJ has two touchdowns through 4 weeks, fantasy owners can expect that number to change.

With the potential (and likely) return of Sam Bradford this Monday night, Vikings receiver Adam Thielen peaks in at No.17. Thielen has 24 receptions for 358 yards receiving (4th in the league) with zero touchdowns, good enough for the No.13 fantasy WR (in PPR). Back in week 1, Thielen teamed up with Bradford for a stat line of 9/157/0. Against the Bears on Monday night Thielen should have some success against a secondary that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

Checking in at No.22 is the Cardinals receiver Jaron Brown. Through the first four weeks of the season Brown has been pretty reliable and productive; 14 receptions (2nd on team), 205 yards receiving (2nd on team), and 29 targets (2nd on team). Last week with the return of wide receiver John Brown and a healthier JJ Nelson, Jaron led the way with 12 targets, 8 receptions, and 105 receiving yards. It’s looking like the other Brown and Nelson will once again be available. This week is a prime matchup for the Cardinals receivers facing an Eagles defense that has struggled mightily against opposing receivers, allowing the 3rd highest fantasy points, 3rd most receptions, and 3rd most receiving yards. It’s easy to see why I have Larry Fitzgerald at No.8 this week and Jaron at 22.

Here are my Week 5 WR rankings;

1.Odell Beckham Jr

2. Jordy Nelson

3. Antonio Brown

4. AJ Green

5. DeAndre Hopkins

6. Dez Bryant

7. Stefon Diggs

8. Larry Fitzgerald

9. Keenan Allen

10. TY Hilton

11. Devante Parker

12. Doug Baldwin

13. Tyreek Hill

14. Pierre Garcon

15. Golden Tate

16. Randall Cobb

17. Adam Thielen

18. Sammy Watkins

19. Alshon Jeffery

20. Amari Cooper

21. Jarvis Landry

22. Jaron Brown

23. Kelvin Benjamin

24. Tyrell Williams

25. Rishard Matthews

26. Martavis Bryant

27. Devin Funchess

28. Sterling Shepard

29. Michael Crabtree

30. Jeremy Maclin

These are my WR rankings for Week 5.

~David Ortega

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September 25th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

It’s time for some Monday night football and tonight’s matchup between the Cowboys and Cardinals will have plenty of fantasy implications with players like Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, Ezekiel Elliott, and Jason Witten.

We’ve seen a lot of improved play this weekend on the offensive side of the ball and tonight I’d expect to see the trend continue. Players like JJ Nelson, Carson Palmer, and Chris Johnson may arrive tonight on the big stage.

Quarterback Dak Prescott; it was tough sledding for the young quarterback last, but tonight he’ll get back to his usual form taking care of the ball and making good decisions. He’s a mid-QB2 this week and is in line to tally his normal 16-20 fantasy points against a Card’s defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Back Ezekiel Elliott; the Cards defense has been pretty solid through two weeks against the run, but they have yet to face any running backs of Elliott’s caliber. Elliott should see his normal workload tonight as this matchup should remain close throughout. He won’t run wild tonight, but his production should be worthy of starting as your RB1.

Wide Receiver Dez Bryant; some speculate a tough matchup for the Cowboys receiver this week. Bryant is a big physical receiver that has the trust of his quarterback; 25 targets through 2 games. Tonight Bryant will matchup with a secondary that was torched back in week one by the Lions; Cards surrendered 18 receptions for 245 yards and three scores. Bryant has only secured 9 passes this season for 102 yards and a touchdown; he’ll make a run at those numbers tonight.

Tight End Jason Witten; the Cowboys veteran tight end has been his quarterback’s security blanket (17 of 22 receptions to targets) through the first two weeks of the season (keeping Witten very relevant in fantasy). He’ll continue to be his go to tonight against the Cardinals and is easily a TE1.

Quarterback Carson Palmer; the Cardinals quarterback has had his struggles in this early season, perhaps is just rust from lack of playing time and practice during training camp and preseason. Some will argue his age has caught up to him, but I think we could see the same weekend trend. I don’t think you are starting Palmer this week, but I think he has a decent outing (good for his receivers) against a secondary that Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian shredded pretty good last week.

Running Back Chris Johnson; the Cardinal’s newest Johnson had few carries last week, but didn’t look bad. He’s sure to get a more sustained look tonight (provided Palmer doesn’t throw this one to the other side early). Johnson will be interesting to watch tonight; not looking for a huge game from him, but rather his usage. If he runs well and still has a little of that great speed, he could become a viable flex option in the short future.

Wide Receiver JJ Nelson; the Cardinals number three receiver in the absence of John Brown (and disappearance of Fitz) has emerged as their best receiver and big play threat. But we saw some of this last season, so we should not be surprised. What has raised eye-brows is his sudden rise in fantasy land. Nelson is the current No.27 fantasy receiver in PPR (No.12 standard) entering tonight’s contest. With a current stat line of 10/163/2, if he’s healthy to go, expect his ranking to rise inside the Top-20 and Top-10 respectively.

Wide Receiver Larry Fitzgerald; the 14 year veteran leads the Cards receivers with 19 targets through two games this season, it just hasn’t translated into any kind of production fantasy owners can trust. He’s typically regarded as a borderline WR/WR3, but given his current state coming off a 3-catch 21-yard performance, owners may want to tap the brakes a bit when it comes to Fitz. He may be down in PPR leagues this week, but he should still hold some value as a flex in standard leagues as a viable red-zone threat

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 16th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 2 Four Horsemen + a Flex

(Bold Predictions)

So I took a beating in week one with injuries (Woodhead), poor performances (Powell), and big disappointment (Crowder). Only my quarterback (Roethlisberger) and tight end (Ertz) came through. Tomorrow’s another week and another shot at My Week 2 Bold Predictions;

Quarterback

Tomorrow Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers will make their first appearance in the 2017. This is expected to be a big year for Winston and tomorrow it should get off to a quick start. It’s a home matchup with the Bears who allowed more than 300 yards passing in week one to Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Winston has a strong arm and all the intangibles to make plays, with an elite receiver like Mike Evans and the newly acquired speedy DeSean Jackson, he’s set up for a big year and (Week 2) Sunday. I’d expect a solid line from Winston; 18 of 26 passing, 246 yards, and 3 touchdowns passing.

Running Back

The Chargers are at home tomorrow and running back Melvin Gordon is ready to have a big home-coming. Last week against a tough Bronco’s defense Gordon was still effective and produced. Last season the Dolphins weren’t bad versus the run, but did allow the 6th most receptions to opposing running backs. Gordon is a dual threat and will be involved in the run and pass game. I’d expect to see him hit 20 touches or so and put up RB1 numbers for week 2; 18 carries for 80 yards, 5 catches for 40 yards, and one touchdown.

Wide Receiver

I like Bucs receiver Mike Evans this week as a DFS stack and as one of my bold predictions here. Yeah, this one is not-so-bold. Evans is big time and with Winston ready to take the next step, Evans is also about to elevate to the next level. In his three year career Evans has averaged nearly 10 targets per game, so owners can count on him to be a big part tomorrow. Evans should have a healthy line of 7 receptions for 100 yards and a score.

Tight End

The Patriots laid an egg in week one and tight end Rob Gronkowski was a non-factor with just two catches for 33 yards. Expect a bounce back performance here in a favorable matchup this week against the Saints. The Patriots will be on the road, but Gronk is too valuable and will be heavily involved this week. The Saints defense played well last week, but did allow a touchdown. Fantasy owners can expect more than just a score from Gronk this week; 6 receptions, 85 yards, and a touchdown.

Flex

The Colts secondary is in a lot of trouble this week, after getting torched by quarterback Jared Goff and the Rams in week 1 for 13 catches, 194 yards and a touchdown all to the receivers. Enter Larry Fitzgerald and the Arizona Cardinals this week. The Cardinals had their own struggles in week one, but the Colts secondary may be just what the doctor prescribed. With corner Vontae Davis expected to miss week 2, wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald could be in for some extra work this week. He’s my flex of the week; 8 receptions, 80 yards receiving, and a touchdown.

  

That’s My Take for Week 2.

~David Ortega

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September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Week 2 WR Rankings (PPR)

1.Mike Evans

2. Jordy Nelson

3. Antonio Brown

4. Julio Jones

5. Brandin Cooks

6. Amari Cooper

7. Michael Thomas

8. Odell Beckham Jr

9. AJ Green

10. Larry Fitzgerald

11. Doug Baldwin

12. Keenan Allen

13. Golden Tate

14. Demaryius Thomas

15. Michael Crabtree

16. Stefon Diggs

17.Tyreek Hill

18. DeAndre Hopkins

19. Alshon Jeffery

20. Davante Adams

21. Dez Bryant

22. Terrelle Pryor

23. Adam Thielen

24. Sammy Watkins

25. Kelvin Benjamin

26. Randall Cobb

27. Martavis Bryant

28. Emmanuel Sanders

29. Jeremy Maclin

30. Jarvis Landry/Devante Parker

Even with zero sample size leading into this one, I’ve already bought into “Hard Knocks”, the Buccaneers, and wide receiver Mike Evans. The Bucs fourth year receiver is on the verge of being elite and this could be the season he rises. I like the setup, opening at home, he’s going to come out of the gate huge.

I have Brandin Cooks high on my list this week at No.5. On the road, returning to New Orleans and the Superdome, Patriots fans are going to see what this kid can really do when he gets going downfield. This matchup has the making of a shootout and Cooks should be a huge part.

I’m not down on OBJ this week, just concerned with the injury. I have him Top-10 and he could easily slide into the Top-5 if he’s close to 100 percent. Odell Beckham Jr when healthy is always a big play in the making, at less than 100 percent he can still be productive.

The Cardinals offense and quarterback Carson Palmer struggled terribly week 1, with David Johnson out for 2-3 months Larry Fitzgerald is going to be leaned on heavily. I think Fitz gets peppered all over the field and especially in the red-zone, he’s my No.10 fantasy receiver this week.

I’m not as high on Dez Bryant this week with his pending matchup on the road against the Broncos. There’s no question quarterback Dak Prescott is going to try to work the ball to Dez (9 targets in week 1), but I don’t see a lot of YAC or big plays. Dez ceiling could be limited in this one.

I’ve moved the Vikings Adam Thielen way up considering where he was likely drafted and this is not all based on week 1. Thielen showed a lot of this in the second half of the season last year and it’s quite obvious quarterback Sam Bradford has lots of confidence in his sure handed wide out. Thielen could also benefit from the Steelers having to focus on trying to slow the Vikes other receiver Stefon Diggs.

I have both Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker coming in at No.30 this week. I actually like Landry as the PPR favorite, but I think Parker is going to produce more yards and possibly a score. The pairing with quarterback Jay Cutler just makes too much sense with Parker, but I won’t discount Landry’s involvement, especially as a frequently used safety-valve.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 10th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Gametime

This is one of the most exciting times of the year, right up there with March Madness and Christmas; it’s the first Sunday of the NFL, week 1 and a full slate of games. This is what fantasy owners have been waiting for since camps opened back in July and the time has arrived.

Now that kick-off is just about 75 minutes away how about a couple of “Hot Takes” for week 1;

I’ve not heard anything definitive, but as long as quarterback Cam Newton starts, I am big on wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. A huge red-zone target in the passing offense, look for two scoreS today from Benjamin.

I may not be starting Niners quarterback Brian Hoyer today, but I think he’ll draw some fantasy owner attention today with a solid performance. He’s not goinig to be a sexy play any week, but he’s going to be a quarterback you can stream throughout the season.

One reason for Hoyer’s success will be his connection with wide receiver Pierre Garcon. He’s the number receiver in a system he’s familiar with he could see double digit targets today and post WR1 numbers against the Panthers.

The Bills running back LeSean McCoy is going to see plenty of carries today and could top the 150 total yards mark. The Jets defense has been picked apart this offseason and they could really struggle this season against opposing running backs, especially in the pass game.

And finally for Week 1, look for the old man (sorry Carson) in Arizona, quarterback Carson Palmer to find a little fountain of youth in Detroit today. He and the legend wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald could pull out some old tricks and post some big numbers today; 300 yards passing, 100 yards receiving, and at least one scoring connection.

That’s My Hot Takes for Today.

~David Ortega

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August 19th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Sleeper Watch

So what is a real sleeper in fantasy? I actually don’t know what the true definition is, but by my calculation it’s a player that greatly outperforms their draft day position. These are players that are not expected to perform to the same value as players taken well ahead of them.

For example, let’s take a look at last year; the Saints rookie wide receiver Michael Thomas per Fantasy Football Calculator had an overall ADP of 123.5 going behind players like Markus Wheaton and Kamar Aiken. Thomas finished 2016 as the number 7 wide receiver in PPR (per Fantasy Pros).

This years crops of candidates that I believe will outperform their current ADP include the Redskins wide receiver Pierre Garcon (79 receptions, 1,046 yards receiving in 2016). After finishing the season as the number 23 fantasy receiver in PPR (per Fantasy Data), his current ADP of 88.8 (per FFC) puts him around the 8th and 9th rounds of most drafts and the number 36 receiver (a WR3/WR4) being taken off the board. Garcon is in a new place but playing for a familiar face; head coach Kyle Shanahan. When the two last got together in Washington back in 2013, Garcon posted a stat line of 182 targets, 113 receptions, 1,346 yards receiving, and 5 touchdowns. This season he is in line to take on the primary receiver role in San Francisco, so we can expect to see him numbers rise significantly from a year ago.

Over in Arizona, they have an explosive and talented receiver in John Brown, current ADP 106.7 (per FFC). Last season Brown struggled with health issues finishing with just 39 catches, 517 yards receiving, and 2 touchdowns; good enough to finish well outside the top 50 fantasy receivers in PPR. Rumors are Brown has worked extremely hard this offseason to get himself healthy, stronger, and back on the field. There’s no question that Brown (65 catches, 1,003 yards receiving, 7 touchdowns in 2015) has the skills and ability to be a difference maker. Brown does come with some risk, but with Larry Fitzgerald a little older, Michael Floyd gone, this season would appear to be a great opportunity for JB to shine (if he can stay healthy).

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

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November 26th 2016
Saturday Evening Edition

Week 12 Perfect Lineup

I usually play two Perfect lineups each week, one on NFL.com and the other on DraftDay Fantasy site. Here is my perfect lineup for week 12 on DraftDay.

QB-Tom Brady (NE) - Brady will take his best shots against a Jets secondary that has struggled mightily at times this season. Brady is coming off a big 4 touchdown performance last week and has thrown at least three in four of his six starts. Sunday could be another big day for Tom.

RB-DeMarco Murray (TEN) - Since week 7 Murray has had no fewer than 19 touches and has eclipsed 127 total yards in three of his five starts. Murray is the number 3 scoring fantasy running back and should see a hefty workload on Sunday.

RB-Lamar Miller (HOU) - The Texans ball carrier will face a Chargers defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 12 rushing touchdowns (tied for second most). Miller should see a lion’s share of touches on Sunday giving him plenty of opportunities to produce.

WR-Odell Beckham Jr (NYG) - The Giants dynamic wideout was slowed up a week ago, but with 6 games of 10 plus targets this season, expect OBJ to see plenty of work on Sunday. Facing a Browns defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including the 6th most receiving yards and 14 receiving touchdowns (tied for 3rd most).

WR-Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) - The Cardinals will host the Falcons on Sunday and Larry Fitzgerald will draw coverage from a defense that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. FItzgerald will see plenty of chances on Sunday, especially in the red-zone.

WR-Rishard Matthews (TEN) - The Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota has been sizzling lately and his favorite wide receiver has been Matthews. The Titans wideout faces the Bears secondary that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receiver. In his last three games Matthews has totaled 18 receptions on 28 targets for 248 yards and three touchdowns. He should have plenty of chances to improve these numbers on Sunday.

TE-Greg Olsen (CAR) - The heavily targeted Panthers pass catcher is the number fantasy scoring tight end this season. This week Olsen will draw the Raiders defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Olsen has been quiet recently, but this could change Sunday against the Raiders who allow the 9th most receiving yards and 5 receiving touchdowns (tied for 4th most allowed).

PK-Justin Tucker (BAL) - The Ravens kicker has been solid this season and with an offense that has had it struggles he could see some extra shots from close range on Sunday.

D/ST-Dolphins - The Dolphins are hosting the 49ers who will have to make the long travel across country for the early kickoff start time. This will be a tough matchup for the Niners who are coming off a very poor performance last week against the Patriots.

That’s My Take.

 ~David G. Ortega

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September 30th 2016
Friday Evening Edition

Friday Fantasy Fix

We've got three weeks in the books and whether or not it's enough info to accurately predict outcomes and performances, doesn't matter I am going to offer my two cents nonetheless.

Here are just some notes, observations, and ridiculous predictions for week 4 of the NFL.

Must Plays...

With 2nd year quarterback Trevor Siemian seemingly growing up week-to-week right before our eyes, there's little doubt the Buccaneers defense is going to challenge the young gunslinger. Last week it was Emmanuel Sanders rising up with the big day, this week I like Demaryius Thomas to come up big. Thomas was only targeted 7 times last week, but still came up big with a solid fantasy day. This week I am expecting even greater.

The Cardinals will have a tough divisional matchup this Sunday against the Rams, but that shouldn't matter to wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald. The 13-year vet leads the team in targets, receptions, yards receiving, and touchdowns, by far and it's not even close. Fitz doesn't look like he's lost a step and this week's matchup should be just another one for books. In two matchups last season, Fitz was targeted 20 times and caught 15 balls. He only totaled 154 yards and didn't score, but this year the savvy vet seems to be finding his way to the end zone. If he gets enough looks, he's going to produce.

I am sure if you've been like me, you have been counting the first three weeks just waiting for Steelers running back LeVeon Bell's suspension to end. Now that it has, it's time to play the kid and expect a heavy does of Bell on Sunday. He's a dual threat who may not see 20 plus carries, but he'll be active in the pass game and be one of Sunday's PPR darlings in week 4. Fantasy owners also note, the Chiefs allow the 11th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and have allowed the 7th most rushing yards this season.

Plan B...

If your starter is on a by this week and you have to go to plan B, the Panthers running back Fozzy Whittaker could provide the needed relief. Last week he was stifled against a tough Vikings defensive front, but should have find greater success this week against the Falcons. In three games this season the Atlanta defense is 22nd versus the run and allow the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Another plan B play for week 4 is Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian. He's definitely not playing like a second year quarterback and he has plenty of weapons to dispurse the ball to. The Buccaneers defense will likely stack the box and try to make the kid beat them with his arm; which he may be able to do. Last week Siemian passed for over 300 yards, he could very well follow up with an encorE performance.

Sleepers...

The Saints are on the road this week in San Diego and if you are thinking of playing running back Travaris Cadet, this could be the week. In PPR formats, Cadet could be looking at a big week agains the Chargers defense that allows the 9th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and has allowed the second most receptions. Cadet is a pass-catching specialist and already has 11 receptions (tied for 8th in NFL for RBs) on 16 targets (tied for 8th in NFL for RBs) this season.

This may not be a true sleeper play, but it's borderline especially in redraft leagues where this guy may not have even made any fantasy teams. They have not played a lot, just three games this season, but I like the combination of wide receiver Mike Wallace's speed and quarterback Joe Flacco's big arm. This Sunday the Ravens host the Raiders, a.k.a the big air secondary; that is the Raiders give up a lot of big plays and Wallace was made for the big play. Wallace is seeing a steady diet of targets thus far and this should continue into Sunday. The Raiders have allowed 16 pass plays of 20 yards or more already this season, which only means Wallace and Flacco will add to that total.

Flyers...

So far this season the Bears have had little to cheer about, but at least fantasy owners have tight end Zach Miller. Last week the former Jaguar had his best game of the season with 8 grabs for 78 yards and two scores. Now he may not score twice again this season, but this week against the Lions secondary worst against opposing tight ends he's looks to be lock to find pay dirt. The Lions allow the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have surrendered five touchdowns in just three games. I would expect the Bears to be looking for Miller in the red zone on Sunday.

Waiting list...

The Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles is expected to see action for the first time this season on Sunday, but if you drafted Jam expecting him to return to form this is probably not the week. Fantasy owners should lower their expectations. In deeper formats, you may have to roll the dice and take a shot, but if you have options this may be a play worth waiting on.

That's my take for Week 4.

~David G. Ortega