FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition
November 23rd 2019

Week 12: Armed and Dangerous

As I take a look at the Week 12 matchups for Sunday, there are a couple of quarterbacks that I like the matchup, their current trend, and potential outcome. So let’s start with the ole, West coast team traveling back east to play the early game…

Sam Darnold vs. Raiders
This is just a gut feeling based on the recent play of Darnold and the Jets offense. Darnold slots in as the #25 Fantasy QB through 11 weeks, but he has scored over 21 fantasy points in each of his last two starts, throwing for 525 passing yards, 6 touchdowns (5 pass, 1 rush), and 63.3 passing completion. Darnold has been playing well and I’m counting on a little history here with the Raiders having to travel east and play early. One thing to point out, as good as the Raiders defense has looked the past couple of weeks; their two opposing quarterbacks, Bengals rookie Ryan Finley and the Chargers turnover machine Philip Rivers (7 interceptions in his last two starts).

Matt Ryan vs Buccaneers
Whenever you get Matty-Ice at home, you have to like the prospects. Add that this week the Falcons will host the Bucs and Ryan because an instant start’em. Ryan has yet to face the Bucs this season, but in his two starts last season, he averaged nearly 28 fantasy points per game. The Bucs defense has been awful against the pass this season, allowing 290.9 yards passing (31st) and 25 touchdowns (31st). Ryan’s outlook on Sunday is pretty good.

Baker Mayfield vs Dolphins
As of late the Phins have been a tough out for teams, but this has to be the week Mayfield and company on offense breakout, right? Mayfield comes in as the #22 Fantasy quarterback and he’ll face the 20th ranked pass defense that has allowed 23 passing touchdowns (29th) and 42 pass plays of 20+ yards (28th). The Phins have only recorded 13 sacks in 11 games (tied for fewest in the league). With weapons like OBJ, Landry, Chubb, and Hunt, give Mayfield time and the combination should result in big plays and a lot of fantasy points. We hope.

A couple of risky plays that make me nervous, starts with the big matchup in Foxboro….

Tom Brady vs Cowboys
And while the Patriots have been very good on defense this season, I am not expecting a shutout tomorrow against the Cowboys. The Boys have too many weapons and will manage at least a couple of scores. Brady and the Patriots offense have been out of sync the past couple of weeks and that makes me nervous. Belichick is so creative on the defensive end, I can see the defense accounting for a score or two, and not needing a lot from Brady. Tom Brady is currently the #11 Fantasy QB through 11 weeks, but he has just one passing touchdown in his last two games and has not passed for more than 300 yards in his last four starts. 

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 18th 2017

Saturday Morning Edition

Week 11 Fantasy Notes

Double-Down in DFS

If you playing any DFS, you are probably familiar with stacking or what I like to call double-down, slotting a QB with one of his receivers. This week I like matchup and the cost of Derek Carr with Michael Crabtree ($15,500 total) over such combinations like Brady & Gronk ($16,800). Another double-down I fancy is Alex Smith with Travis Kelce ($15,400), also consider stacking these two with running back Kareem Hunt this week. The savings with these combos is huge and will allow you more room to maneuver when filling out the rest of your lineup.

Diamonds in the Rough

These Diamonds for week 11 are sitting in what I would call short rough. For those of you on the fence with these plays, Jay Cutler (vs TB), Marshawn Lynch (vs NE), Doug Martin (vs Mia), and Marqise Lee (vs Cle), let me offer these quick takes. The Bucs have been awful all season versus the pass and Cutler has more ability and better weapons that Josh McCown. The Patriots allowed over 100 yards rushing to Denver’s backfield, after getting diced for 135 yards by Melvin Gordon. The Dolphins defense is coming off a 200 yards and 6.9 yards per carry allowed performance. Finally Lee is going to be the clear-cut number one on Sunday and should see plenty of volume.

Time to Trade Away or Let Go

While in Packer-land the news is good that quarterback Aaron Rodgers could be back in Week 15, that does fantasy owners no good if they have already been bounced from their respective playoffs. If you are in the hunt to make post-season or chasing a spot, it’s time to trade away of let wide receiver Jordy Nelson go. The preference is to trade, but on limited rosters you aren’t playing Nelson (8 catches, 68 yards last three games). He’ll still have value to someone as a stash for the playoffs, meanwhile you can pick up some talent that you can use now to make the dance.

Also, it’s time to drop tight end Jordan Reed. He’s out again this week and it’s likely he won’t be healthy the rest of the season. He’s a great talent, but injuries have completely upended his season. Through 10 weeks, Reed currently the No.23 fantasy TE (in PPR) has missed 3 games and his best effort came in week 7 when he scored twice and totaled 26.40 fantasy points. In his other five games, he’s only reached double-digit fantasy points in one; time to drop him.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 28th 2017

Saturday Night Edition

Week 8 QB Rankings

Topping the charts this week, to be expected is Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz, as he should be facing the lowly Niners defense. Wentz has been solid this season the Niners are coming off a week 7 throttling by the Cowboys Dak Prescott.

After falling flat last week against the Bears, a week 8 meeting with the Buccaneers is just what Cam Newton may need to bounce back. Newton has been solid this season and last week may have just been an anomaly. Fantasy owners can look for Newton to have much greater success this Sunday against a defense that allows the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

The Falcons defense has been trending the wrong direction of late, enter Jets quarterback Josh McCown. It’s not a prime week for big numbers, but with so many teams on Bye, McCown (the No.13 fantasy QB) could still be in play as a streaming option. He has posted back-to-back 20-plus fantasy point games.

QB Rankings

1. Carson Wentz

2. Tom Brady

3. Drew Brees

4. Dak Prescott

5. Cam Newton

6. Matt Ryan

7. Kirk Cousins

8. Philip Rivers

9. Russell Wilson

10. Tyrod Taylor

11. Deshaun Watson

12. Alex Smith

13. Andy Dalton

14. Ben Roethlisberger

15. Derek Carr

16. Jameis Winston

17. Matthew Stafford

18. Josh McCown

19. Case Keenum

20. Trevor Siemian

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 21st 2017

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Week 7 QB Rankings

With a classic Sunday night matchup this week, quarterback Tom Brady and Matt Ryan will be popular starts this week, another start I’m leaning with is Arizona passer Carson Palmer. The arrival of running back Adrian Peterson is an added weapon that will not only bolster the run game, but help Palmer significantly in the pass game.

QB Rankings

1. Tom Brady

2. Drew Brees

3. Matt Ryan

4. Carson Wentz

5. Kirk Cousins

6. Dak Prescott

7. Cam Newton

8. Carson Palmer

9. Marcus Mariota

10. Russell Wilson

11. Ben Roethlisberger

12. Tyrod Taylor

13. Jared Goff

14. Jameis Winston

15. Philip Rivers

16. Andy Dalton

17. Brett Hundley

18. Trevor Siemian

19. Josh McCown

20. Blake Bortles

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 15th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

My Week 6 Injury Takes

RB, Ty Montgomery (ribs); the Packers running back is expected to play today without limitations. Regardless, Montgomery remains a risky play today, playing with fractured ribs. He's considered a risky flex in PPR this week.

RB, Terrance West (calf) ruled OUT; with West continuing to be sideline, the reigns will once again lie in the hands of Buck Allen and Alex Collins. Allen got more run last week with 21 carries and 4 receptions. He's the favorite in the Ravens backfield today, especially in PPR.

RB, Rex Burkhead (ribs) ruled OUT; with Burkhead out, the running back in the Patriots backfield that will lead the fantasy charge is James White. He is the No.20 fantasy RB and should be heavily involved in the short passing game once again.

QB, Marcus Mariota (hamstring) Questionable; the Titans quarterback is looking like a real game-time decision. If Mariota can't go, Matt Cassel would get his second straight start. Without Mariota, the Titans receiving corps fantasy value across the board takes a hit.

WR, Stefon Diggs (groin) ruled OUT; Diggs suffered the groin injury last Monday night and exited early, he'll miss Sunday's matchup with the Packers. With Diggs out, targets should open up for both wide receiver Adam Thielen and tight end Kyle Rudolph.

TE, George Kittle (chest); the Niners tight end has been removed from the team's injury report. Kittle had his best game last week and has a good matchup and even better shot at backing that up with another solid Sunday today at Washington.

TE, Jack Doyle (concussion); the Colts tight end has cleared the concussion protocol and will play Monday night. At No.16 in my rankings this week, Doyle is considered a week 6 reach or streaming option. There are likely better options available.

QB, Matthew Stafford (ankle, hamstring); the Lions quarterback is expected to play which is good news for fantasy owners of Abdullah and Tate. With Stafford under center even at less than 100 percent, wide receiver Golden Tate (ranked 15 this week) is a strong play today.

TE, Travis Kelce (concussion); the Chiefs tight end was not listed on the team's injury report and appears completely recovered from his Sunday night concussion. Kelce was rolling big when he exited last week's game at halftime. He'll try to recapture some of that momentum today at Arrowhead against the Steelers.

TE, Rob Gronkowski (thigh); Gronk was not listed on the team's injury report and tops my Week 6 tight end rankings; just another Sunday in the day and life of Gronk.

QB, Tom Brady (shoulder); the Patriots quarterback was removed from the Patriots injury report. Brady looks set to wheel and deal today, he's my No.2 fantasy quarterback this week against the Jets.

WR, Amari Cooper (knee); the Raiders wide receiver has been removed for the team's week 6 injury report. Good news for Copper owners, Carr is back this week. Bad news is Cooper has been so bad this week, he's tough to trust, although keep in mind the Chargers have allowed the 2nd most touchdowns to opposing receivers (which may be better news for Crabtree owners).

WR, John Brown (quad); the Cardinals wide receiver wasn't listed on the team's injury report. He appears to be his healthiest he's been this season and just in time for a tasty matchup with the Buccaneers. He's got some flex appeal this week.

QB, Derek Carr (back); Carr will start on Sunday. The Raiders signal caller made better progress and was able to return much sooner than expected. With the Chargers sack-pack of Ingram and Bosa on the slate, Carr is a risky week 6 option.

WR, Jordy Nelson (back); the Packers wide receiver was removed from the team's injury report. Nelson is good to go and locked in as my No.6 fantasy receiver.

RB, Bilal Powell (calf) Questionable; it's been reported now that Powell will not play today. With the Patriots poor run defense on the slate, it's time to roll out rookie running back Elijah McGuire this week.

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 14th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

Week 6 QB Rankings

I’m showing a lot of confidence in Kirk Cousins this week. I saw solid back-to-back games in weeks 3 & 4; if not for a dropped pass in the end zone, Cousins numbers would have looked that much better and the Redskins would be coming off a two game winning streak. Cousins is only the No.16 fantasy QB through five weeks, but I think he’s on the move and I like him as my No.6 QB this week.

Like Cousins, I think Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (No.11 fantasy QB) is set to deliver another strong performance. In his last two starts, Rivers is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game; he has passed for over 600 yards and tossed 5 touchdowns. Rivers is rolling and should continue against a Raiders defense that has yet to register an interception. I have Rivers coming in as my No.8 QB this week.

QB Rankings

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Tom Brady

3. Drew Brees

4. Matt Ryan

5. Deshaun Watson

6. Kirk Cousins

7. Carson Palmer

8. Philip Rivers

9. Alex Smith

10. Jameis Winston

11. Matthew Stafford

12. Derek Carr

13. Ben Roethlisberger

14. Trevor Siemian

15. Marcus Mariota

16. Jacoby Brissett

17. Brian Hoyer

18. Josh McCown

19. Jared Goff

20. Case Keenum

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 5th, 2017

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday's Twitter Takes

Last week kind of an easy pick with Green Bay handling the Bears fairly easily; actually took the Packers in my survivor. Although the Pack won it was costly losing Montgomery (ribs) and Adams (concussion). Of course Rodgers was on point, but with a full quota of receivers (Nelson, Cobb, and Adams), there wasn't enough looks for Geronimo Allison to go around (whiff). Bennett did his usual cameo, but for maybe a few more yards while Montgomery's shortened evening hurt owners. Not much to speak about when it comes to the Bears. Jordan Howard (Thunder) salvaged his night with a late score. Tarik Cohen (Lightning) flickered some, and even Kendall Wright ended up being playable.

Well that was last week, so let's talk about tonight's contest;

"Mike Evans should have a big night on Thurs night against the No.32 ranked pass defense. He's definitely a Week 5 stud!" @FantsySprtsHome

The Patriots are surrending north of 300 yards passing per game and have allowed 11 receiving touchdowns in just three games. Another concerning factor is the high percentage (69.7) of completions the secondary is allowing. There's little doubt Winston and company will test the corners and attack them with his big target Mike Evans. It's hard to imagine Evans not getting into the endzone tonight at least once.

"You can expect Tom Brady to be busy tonight playing keep up or catch up. Even on the road he'll be a Top-3 fantasy QB this week" @FantsySprtsHome

And while the Pat's defense is lacking against the pass, the Buccaneers are not far behind. Only the Patriots allow more yards passing per game, but a big factor to watch is the lack of pressure. The Bucs have only sacked opposing quarterbacks once in three games; yes once! If Brady is given time, he's like a mad scientist and will completely dissect the defense. Expect the mad doctor to go operating tonight, especially since the run game is lacking.

"Doug Martin returns to action tonight, but don't discount Jacq Rodgers. He'll still have plenty of flex appeal tonight!" @FantsySprtsHome

While the Patriots are bad against the pass, they are not much better against the run, ranked 26th. A notable stat, the Patriots also allow 5.1 yards per carry. I'm sure we're going to see Martin sprinkled into this one, but I would be surprised if Rodgers didn't log at least 12-15 carries tonight, and haul in a couple of passes.

"After seeing what Watson was able to do against this defense, Winston owners have to be salivating; Top-10 fantasy QB this week!"

Two weeks ago the Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson had a terrific game against the Patriots, passing for 300 yards and tossing two scores. Tonight the 3rd year Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston enters his matchup against the same Patriots defense with some pretty good weapons of his own. If experience counts for anything, we just may see Winston a very mobile and capable QB in his own right take his game to the next level; fantasy owners get your popcorn ready.

"Gotta love Patriots RB-James White tonight in a game where Brady is likely to throw as many as 50 passes!" @FantsySprtsHome

If numbers mean anything, the Patriots defense is going to have a rough go at it trying to slow down and stop the Buccaneers offense. That being the case, it just may be up to quarterback Tom Brady to keep his team in this one throughout and hopefully close the game on a late drive. Unfortunately (or fortunately), Brady and company will likely have to rely on his arm. Through 4 games the running game (ranked 20th in the league) has not been there averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Brady, the No.1 fantasy QB this season, through 4 games is averaging over 38 pass attempts per game; tonight he's got a great chance at surpassing his average with ease.

"DJax has been quiet much of the early part of this season, but tonight could be his breakout game!" @FantsySprtsHome

Currently DeSean Jackson is ranked outside the Top-50 wide receivers with just 9 receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown. His long this season is just 32 yards; not exactly what you would expect from a burner like DJax. The Patriots secondary is going to have to account for Evans all night, giving Jackson opportunity. Jackson will also have the good fortune of attacking a secondary that has allowed 19 pass plays of 20 or more yards (3rd most in the league), including 4 pass plays of 40 yards or more (tied for 2nd most).

Those are My Takes!

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday afternoon Edition

My Week 4 Four Horsemen + a Flex

(Bold Predictions: By the Numbers)

Time to check out our report card for last week and I have to tell you, it feels like getting a test back that you already know you didn’t do well. So let’s take a look. At quarterback we tanked with our Rivers picked. Apparently the Chargers move from San Diego to Los Angeles didn’t change a whole lot of things; three picks, no touchdowns

Who would’ve thought the Saints defense would show up in week 3 and on the road nonetheless. Running back Jonathan Stewart was basically held in check limited to just 61 total yards. Our receiver DeAndre Hopkins was busy last Sunday with 7 catches, but finishing as the No.30 fantasy WR (PPR) is not good enough. Tight end Jared Cook wasn’t far off the mark with 43 yards and score, finishing as the No.8 fantasy TE (PPR) last week. Running back Lamar Miller, our flex fared no better than Stewart, finishing with just 63 total yards. And for good measure the Steelers defense ranked 13th in fantasy last week.

Overall Grade D-

There’s no question it was a rough week, but maybe we can bounce back in a big way in Week 4;

Quarterback

It’s not been a good season thus far for picks, but I’m a gambler and I’ll play every time. This week I am riding with the rookie arm of Deshaun Watson. Ever since his debut as the starter in week 2 on Thursday night, I’ve been impressed. He had Mike Vick moves then and last week showed some grit standing toe-to-toe with Tom Brady and the Patriots. He’s still a rookie and going to make mistakes, but I love his upside when you add in his running skills and Bill O’Brien’s play-calling. This week he’ll have more success against the Titans; 20 0f 30 passing, 185 yards passing, 1 TD pass, 1 Int, 45 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD.

Running Back

If I have any real bold picks here, this one will be the boldest of the bunch. This will be Buccaneers running back Jacquizz Rodgers last dance in the spotlight (start Doug Martin returns next week) and after a less than dismal week 3 finishing with just 15 yards rushing on 5 carries he’s going to be looking to bounce back in a big way. Last week was not a good week in general for the entire offense, but fortunately for Rodgers and company the Giants roll into town. Through 3 weeks, the G-men have not been good against the run. Let’s look at the numbers; ranked last against the run, allow 4.5 yards per carry, and allow 10th most fantasy points to opposing runners. The Bucs have enough weapons to keep the G-men from stacking the box; 75 rushing yards, 25 receiving yards and a score.

Wide Receiver

Bold, maybe not, but playing the numbers yes. Dolphins wide receiver Jarvis Landry was heavily targeted back in week two (15 targets) and followed that performance with 11 more last Sunday. His busy Sundays have yet to produce a lot of yards, 19 receptions for just 126 yards. So I am just playing the numbers on this one, Landry is getting opportunities and his week 4 matchup looks like a good one against the Saints (ranked 31st against the pass). It will be another busy Sunday for Landry; 8 receptions, 85 yards, and a touchdown.

Tight End

I’m not going to mince words here with my week 4 tight end pick. What’s the saying, hard to keep a big man down or something like that? At 6’5” Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is nearly larger than life and after a hugely disappointing week 3 (just one catch), he’s bouncing back this week. You can count on Andy Reid making sure of that. It’s a great matchup against a Redskins defense that struggles against opposing tight ends; 7 catches, 75 yards receiving, a touchdown.

Flex

Over the past two weeks the Redskins rising star ball carrier Chris Thompson has been on a roll. I am a believer in the third time’s a charm. Thompson is electric in space, has great hands, and I believe Jay Gruden will game play to get the rock to him on Monday night. He’s my flex this week; 35 rushing yards, 6 catches, 55 receiving yards, and a score.

Defense: And once again we are playing a team defense this week, since we love DFS. This week I am streaming the Jaguars defense. I am not expecting a repeat of last week’s domination, especially since entering this matchup, the Jets offense is coming off a good showing. The Jets are home this Sunday, so I’d expect them to keep some of that momentum this week. I am playing the numbers here and just like the Jags defense (the No.3 overall defense, number one in sacks-13, 2nd in turnover differential) too much to think McCown and company will be able to generate a lot of yards and points.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega