FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Late Evening Edition

September 7th, 2019

Week One: Fantasy Five

This is my first Fantasy Five entry for the season; these are my five predictions for Week One. There are obvious players you drafted you will be starting regardless of the matchup, so these are bubble players that may or may not be in your line-up on Sunday! Here are my Stud, Dud, Boom, Bust, and Sleeper for tomorrow.

Stud - WR, Mike Williams

There’s not a large sample size to evaluate here, so this is more of a gut call for me. Williams is in his third season now and ready for a breakout. The Chargers will meet the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but this is a home matchup, so I like the homedawgs to have success on offense tomorrow. The Colts were the best last season against opposing receivers allowing the fewest fantasy points, so why do I like Williams. Last season in his last four games, Williams saw at least six targets in three of his last four games. With the Colts defense keying on the other Chargers receiver Keenan Allen (WR11 according to FFC), and with his 6’4” frame I like Williams to find the end-zone on Sunday. He’ll finish much better than his WR26, ADP 61.8 (according to FFC).

Dud - QB, Matt Ryan

The Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan was coming off drafts boards with an ADP of 68.2 (FFC), good enough for the QB5 spot. That high in drafts, he’s a QB1 in all redraft leagues, but fantasy owners will need to keep their expectations in check. Ryan and the Falcons open on the road and face the Minnesota Vikings, the league’s 3rd ranked pass defense (allowing fewer than 200 yards passing per game) from a year ago. The Vikings also allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. While many project a big year for Matty-Ice, he may not get off to the high-flying start many will be hoping for. With the weapons Ryan has, I am predicting a decent outing, but his numbers may fall outside the top 12 for the week.

Boom - RB, Kerryon Johnson

The Lions are set to meet the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday and running back Kerryon Johnson is set to have a huge Sunday. The Cardinals defense was bad last season against opposing running backs allowing the most fantasy points, over 150 yards on the ground, and 20 rushing touchdowns (to running backs); all led the league in 2018. Johnson should some flashes last season when healthy and given the chance. Coming off fantasy drafts boards as the RB14, I think he’s a shoo-in to be a Top-10 on Sunday. He’s healthy and primed to be a workhorse in the Lions backfield this season; at least in Week one he should take full advantage of the opportunity.

Bust - TE, David Njoku

This is hardly a news breaker, but the Browns tight end is going to be lower in the pecking order when it comes to Targets, likely behind OBJ (Odell Beckham Jr), Jarvis Landry, and (maybe even) Nick Chubb. He’s a talented pass catcher with a lot of skills, but he’ll have a difficult matchup this week against the Titans defense that allowed the 5th fewest points to opposing tight ends in 2018. Njoku finished the 2018 season as the TE9, the same spot he’s being drafted in fantasy leagues at ADP 81.1 (FFC). In 2018, in his final 8 games, Njoku had just two games with more than 5 targets, and his 7 targets in Week 17 were the most he saw during that stretch. With the arrival of OBJ, the target shares he enjoyed last season may not be available. Njoku may give owners fantasy TE9 numbers over the course of the season, but at times it could be feast or famine; Week one looks like a potential famine.

Sleeper - QB, Kirk Cousins

Cousins and the Vikings open up at home and with the return of a healthy running back Dalvin Cook, the offense looks primed for 2019. Cousins has been a steady fantasy QB1, over the past several seasons and with a full complement of weapons this Sunday against the Falcons, I like his prospects for a big game. The Falcons defense allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season along with 33 passing touchdowns, 4th most allowed in the league. The Falcons are healthy this season and should be improved, but Cousins was the QB18 in fantasy drafts at ADP 130.8 (FFC); he looks like a lock to finish significantly higher this week than QB18.

Week One: Injury Notes

Notable

• TE Jordan Reed (concussion) is out, fade all Redskins TEs
• WR Stefon Diggs (hamstring) is questionable for Sunday, check status.
• WR Robby Anderson (calf) is questionable for Week 1, look at other options.
• WR Alshon Jeffery (biceps) expected to play Sunday, he’s a safe flex or WR3.
• WR Marquise Lee (knee) removed from injury report, a possible week one sleeper.
• WR Antonio Brown lands in New England; he’s out for Week 1

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Evening Edition
September 6th, 2019

Friday Night Fantasy Fixx

Thursday Night Recap

First let’s talk about the disaster that was the two offenses in last night’s NFL opener between the Packers and Bears. While we can attribute some of the Packers woes to a great looking Bears defense (ranked 3rd in total defense in 2018), we can also consider a little pre-season rust. Normally I might rewatch the game using my annual NFL Game Pass, but come on, lets face it, this game was hardly worth the first watch.

The Bears D did what they do, sacked quarterback Aaron Rodgers five times, held the Packers offense to 16% 3rd down conversion rate, and limited them to just 213 yards of total offense. Fantasy owners of running back Aaron Jones were no doubt grumbling last night, with the lack of production, but this should have been expected with the Bears number one run defense from a year ago.  

What was not expected was the split snaps with running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Williams edge out Jones in the first half, but Jones finished with 38 to 26. This is concerning, but Jones did in fact out touch williams two-to-one, with 14 touches to 7, and outgained Williams 39 yards to 15 yards. Probably no need to panic here with the results, the Packers aren’t likely to see a defense this stout, that is of course until the face the Bears again. Keep calm.

One of the surprises of the night had to be the Packers Defense (pick them up off waivers). They registered five sacks of their own, came up with one turnover (although the secondary did let two slip through their hands) on the night, and shut down Mitchy (quarterback Mitchell Trubisky) and company, holding the Bears offense to 3 points. This was not expected, but neither was the poor play of the aforementioned quarterback; staring down receivers, ill-advised passes, poor decision making in critical moments. Trubisky still has some growing to do, and fortunately for the Bears, their defense may afford him a little time. He will need to clean up some of his flaws, but the poor coaching decisions and play calls he can’t control; what was up with that. 

For now, the only Fantasy studs on this Bears offense are wide receiver Allen Robinson who finished with 7 catches for 102 yards on 13 targets (28.8% share; this is massive) and flex receiver Tarik Cohen, zero carries, with 8 catches for 49 yards on 10 targets (22.2% share; this is huge, but likely not sustainable). These two should be in weekly PPR lineups.

Bad News: The Antonio Brown Saga

This is an incredible day-time soap opera in Raider Nation; I hear it’s up for a Daytime Emmy. Susan Lucci could never hope for as good a storyline as the one AB is trail-blazing. Since all of his antics have been adequately covered and monitored by all the media outlets and sports networks, there’s no need for me to dive down that rabbit hole. The only thing I can offer, is this was one of the reasons I steered cleared of AB during my season-long redrafts. He’s unquestionably one of the best receivers in the game today, but watching this free-fall he’s taken of late had me concerned about his availability. If Brown can overcome himself and manage not to trip over his own actions, he should payoff huge for owners that took a chance on him. I, for one will continue to steer clear for now, until the situation stabilizes and dust settles.

And then there was one. Another fantasy concern heading into week one is Chargers running back Melvin Gordon, the lone running back holdout this season with Ezekiel Elliot signing an extension with the Cowboys earlier in the week. This situation has no timeline, so there’s no telling if or when Gordon might rejoin the team, if he even does. He was another draftee I avoided, due to concerns with his contract situation. Fantasy owners, don’t hold your breath on this one.

Injury notes

It’s late Friday night, so I will check out the injury reports from today and update my perspective on the notables tomorrow.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Late Evening Edition
September 1st, 2019

Season Long: Four Horsemen

Texans, QB-Deshaun Watson
I think the Texans did a pretty good job this preseason with some of their moves, but even prior to them I was all-in with their quarterback. Last season the Texans had one of the worst, if not the worst offensive lines in the league (62 sacks allowed in 2018) and Watson still managed to finish as the number 4 fantasy quarterback. He’ll start his 2019 campaign with the best in the business, in wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and a healthy pass catcher in Will Fuller (expected to be ready for week 1). With running backs Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde set to line up in the backfield, Watson will have a very nice compliment of weapons all around. If the Texans can protect Watson and run the ball effectively, this signal caller should be a lock for a top-3 fantasy quarterback in 2019.

Vikings, RB-Dalvin Cook
An 85-yard touchdown run against the Cardinals in the Vikings third preseason game was all I needed to see, well actually that a couple of other plays on offense. Cook looked fresh, healthy, strong, and fast as heck (especially on his touchdown run). The Vikings runner is now more than a season removed from his knee injury suffered during his rookie season; he’s healthy now and looks great. During his 85-yard dash he showed great explosion and acceleration. I think this kids going to show folks what we were seeing from him back in 2017. Cook is getting drafted in the early second round (ADP 15.1 according to FFC), but he’s worthy of a first round pick and will be a Top-6 fantasy running back in 2019.

Buccaneers, WR-Chris Godwin
I am buying Jacks beans, taking the bait, and falling hook line and sinker for wide receiver Chris Godwin. There are a lot of signs pointing in the right direction for the Bucs wideout. A stable quarterback situation in 2019, with Jameis Winston the starter, and a new Head Coach in Bruce Arians. Godwin showed some flashes at the tail-end of last season and with rumors out of camp suggesting he and Winston are building chemistry, I like his outlook. The expectation in the leagues highest passing offense from 2018 and under Arians offense, Godwin is going to see an increase in targets and should breakout this season. Even with an ADP of 39.8 and WR16 (according to FFC), I am locking him in my Top-12 fantasy receivers for 2019.

Saints, TE-Jared Cook
In 2018, tight end Jared Cook finished the season as the number 5 fantasy TE with Derek Carr as his quarterback. Now that he’s a Saint, he’ll be catching passes from quarterback Drew Brees. Does anything more need to be said. The last time Brees had a solid pass catching talent at tight end it was Jimmy Graham, back in 2014. Graham finished that season as the number 2 fantasy tight end; that’s Cook’s upside this season. The Saints will roll out plenty of weapons this season and Cook should benefit greatly. He’s the TE7, ADP 70.7 (according to FFC) and deserving of this currenting ranking, but in my best estimations, he’s going to challenge the top trio.

These are my top fantasy prospects for 2019, that I am trying to grab as many shares of in Best Ball, re-drafts, and season long leagues. As some might say, I am going to ride high with these Four horsemen!

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Evening Edition
September 1st, 2019

Sold! Just call me Jack

I wasn’t buying the hype at the start of the NFL Training Camps, but with the social media buzz and 2019 season outlook, it’s really tough for me to stay off the Baker Mayfield bandwagon. Sure expectations are high this season in Cleveland and sure there will be a lot of pressure, but it’s hard to deny Mayfield has the tools and now an elite weapon in wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Add OBJ to the likes of wide receiver Jarvis Landry, running back Nick Chubb, and tight end David Njoku and this offense looks loaded. The Browns team may not live up to all of the Super Bowl hype this season, but this offense looks poised to put up serious fantasy numbers and with Mayfield calling the signals, I am drinking the Kool-aid even at his current ADP 66.0 overall (FFC ).

I remember it was either last season or the season before when Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette was clocked with one of the fastest open field run times during a game. During week 3 preseason against the Dolphins Fournette looked spry and quick. There’s no doubt, he has the size, the power, and the tools to be a dominant runner in the league, but he needs to stay healthy. In his first two seasons in the NFL, Fournette has missed 11 games. His health would be my only hesitation, but he looked good enough to be worth risk; coming off the board at RB13 with an ADP of 24.5 (according to FFC), I’m buying me some shares.

Despite the arrival of running back Carlos Hyde to the Texans, I still expect to see Duke Johnson to play the role of the lead back. It’s a great situation and opportunity for Duke to finally showcase and prove he can be the featured back. In his college days Johnson was the bell-cow in south beach (University of Miami). In his final season with the Hurricanes Johnson logged 280 touches for 2,073 yards (1,652 rushing, 421 receiving) of total offense. It's a big step up in the NFL, but through his first four season, Johnson has yet to miss a game. I believe Duke has the talent and now the opportunity to be a Top-20 fantasy running back. I’ll buy that.

After watching the Broncos wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders return to action this preseason (the team's fourth game) and having seen some of his practice highlight footage, I am sold on the 10 year veteran. Last season Sanders was the number 23 fantasy receiver (full PPR) and returns in 2019, as the team's clear number one option. Even though the team seems to be geared more toward a run-first concept, I believe the combination of quarterback Joe Flacco-to-Sanders could result in some nice production. He’s currently at ADP 87.3, WR34 (FFC), and as good as he has looked with Flacco, he’s moving up my rankings and I will be buying what he’s selling.

I was originally buying into the running back situation in Kansas City, but with the recent changes (addition of LeSean McCoy) in the last 24 hours, I don’t have any idea where I am leaning. With these backs, I am treading lightly, although I have to believe Damien Williams will still be an integral piece of the offense.


That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega