FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Evening Edition
September 6th, 2019

Friday Night Fantasy Fixx

Thursday Night Recap

First let’s talk about the disaster that was the two offenses in last night’s NFL opener between the Packers and Bears. While we can attribute some of the Packers woes to a great looking Bears defense (ranked 3rd in total defense in 2018), we can also consider a little pre-season rust. Normally I might rewatch the game using my annual NFL Game Pass, but come on, lets face it, this game was hardly worth the first watch.

The Bears D did what they do, sacked quarterback Aaron Rodgers five times, held the Packers offense to 16% 3rd down conversion rate, and limited them to just 213 yards of total offense. Fantasy owners of running back Aaron Jones were no doubt grumbling last night, with the lack of production, but this should have been expected with the Bears number one run defense from a year ago.  

What was not expected was the split snaps with running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Williams edge out Jones in the first half, but Jones finished with 38 to 26. This is concerning, but Jones did in fact out touch williams two-to-one, with 14 touches to 7, and outgained Williams 39 yards to 15 yards. Probably no need to panic here with the results, the Packers aren’t likely to see a defense this stout, that is of course until the face the Bears again. Keep calm.

One of the surprises of the night had to be the Packers Defense (pick them up off waivers). They registered five sacks of their own, came up with one turnover (although the secondary did let two slip through their hands) on the night, and shut down Mitchy (quarterback Mitchell Trubisky) and company, holding the Bears offense to 3 points. This was not expected, but neither was the poor play of the aforementioned quarterback; staring down receivers, ill-advised passes, poor decision making in critical moments. Trubisky still has some growing to do, and fortunately for the Bears, their defense may afford him a little time. He will need to clean up some of his flaws, but the poor coaching decisions and play calls he can’t control; what was up with that. 

For now, the only Fantasy studs on this Bears offense are wide receiver Allen Robinson who finished with 7 catches for 102 yards on 13 targets (28.8% share; this is massive) and flex receiver Tarik Cohen, zero carries, with 8 catches for 49 yards on 10 targets (22.2% share; this is huge, but likely not sustainable). These two should be in weekly PPR lineups.

Bad News: The Antonio Brown Saga

This is an incredible day-time soap opera in Raider Nation; I hear it’s up for a Daytime Emmy. Susan Lucci could never hope for as good a storyline as the one AB is trail-blazing. Since all of his antics have been adequately covered and monitored by all the media outlets and sports networks, there’s no need for me to dive down that rabbit hole. The only thing I can offer, is this was one of the reasons I steered cleared of AB during my season-long redrafts. He’s unquestionably one of the best receivers in the game today, but watching this free-fall he’s taken of late had me concerned about his availability. If Brown can overcome himself and manage not to trip over his own actions, he should payoff huge for owners that took a chance on him. I, for one will continue to steer clear for now, until the situation stabilizes and dust settles.

And then there was one. Another fantasy concern heading into week one is Chargers running back Melvin Gordon, the lone running back holdout this season with Ezekiel Elliot signing an extension with the Cowboys earlier in the week. This situation has no timeline, so there’s no telling if or when Gordon might rejoin the team, if he even does. He was another draftee I avoided, due to concerns with his contract situation. Fantasy owners, don’t hold your breath on this one.

Injury notes

It’s late Friday night, so I will check out the injury reports from today and update my perspective on the notables tomorrow.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 18th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

What I Learned from Week 6

Carson Wentz is the real deal in Philly.

We are only six weeks in, but we are six weeks in and the Eagles are 5-1. One of the big reasons has been the play of quarterback Carson Wentz. Through six weeks, Wentz is completing 61 percent of his passes, has thrown for 1,584 yards, and tossed 13 touchdowns. He is currently the No.4 fantasy quarterback this season and has his team at 5-1, in first place of the NFC East. Yep folks, Wentz is the real deal.

Jordan Howard is a Beast Baller.

I’ve had a chance to watch Howard a few times this season and surprisingly to me, he has more quickness and speed than what I remember from last season. Currently the 5th leading rusher this season, what I also remember about Howard he is a bull. At 6-feet tall and 230 pounds the kid is a load. Through six weeks he rushed for 495 yards, averaging over 4 yards per carry, and he’s added 4 rushing touchdowns. In week 6 Howard steamrolled his way through a Ravens defense for 167 yards. With rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky under center, I expect the Bears to feed the beast.

  

Peterson is still All-day and Twice on Sunday!

Many of thought that Adrian Peterson looked like a fish out of water in New Orleans and at the same time, some still questioned whether he had anything left in his tank. Well, once he found a new home where from all appearance, the fit looked right; it did not take long for Peterson to answer all questions and any doubters. Peterson proved once again he is All-Day, carrying the rock 26 times for 134 rushing yards and two scores, including a welcome to my world, I own this B&#%$! 27 yard touchdown scamper in the first quarter on Sunday. It was nice to see Peterson back out there doing what he does, and twice (two touchdowns) on Sunday!

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 9th 2017

Monday Afternoon Edition

Monday Night Takes

(Week 5)

My Takes



Quarterback Sam Bradford; it's sounding very much like Sam will go tonight against the Bears. The matchup is never favorable in the friendly confines of Soldier Field and last season Bradford was ineffective in a 20-10 loss. But that was about a year ago and an old Bradford. The new Bradford brings with him some great weapons and an even greater understanding of the offense. It's not going to be a breakout performance, but rather a solid one for Sam returning from injury. Feel confident if you have to ride Sam tonight, he's a nice bye week fill.

Running backs Latavius Murray & Jerrick McKinnon; the loss of rookie running back Dalvin Cook hurts, but with Bradford back under center the combination of Murray and McKinnon should fill just fine. Murray is expected to log the majority of carries and if he's close to 100 percent he should be able to provide some of the in-between the tackle presence the running game was missing last season; he's a fade option at running back this week. McKinnon will likely play his regular 3rd down pass catching role, but he's not fantasy worthy tonight.

Wide receivers Stefon Diggs & Adam Thielen; these two are the Vikings wonder twins. Both run great routes, both have great hands, and with Bradford under center, both are worth starting. Also, only a mother can tell these two apart. Unfortunately for the Bears secondary (ranked 4th in the NFL), they don't have any mom's playing safety, so it'll be a long night for them. Diggs and Thilen should both be started.

Tight end Kyle Rudolph; with his starting quarterback returning this week, Rudolph is back in play. Now fantasy owners will need to hold their water as he's only a backend TE1 this week. The Bears are pretty good against the tight end spot, but I like Rudolph as a great candidate for a red zone score.

Quarterback Mitchell Turbisky; the Bears roll out the Trubisky era tonight, but don't expect a welcoming reception from the Vikings defense tonight. It's likely going to be a long night for the rookie, but more importantly for the Bears among the inevitable mistakes he'll make, they are hoping to see a spark on the offensive side of the ball. Trubisky is not worth starting or owning at this time, but tonight it will be interesting to see what he can do.

Running backs Jordan Howard & Tarik Cohen; unfortunately for Thunder and lightning and fantasy owners, the weather's been pretty calm the past couple of weeks and the forecast for tonight does not look stormy. The Vikings are ranked 2nd versus the run, so fantasy owners should temper their expectations. The only good thing to count on, with a rookie quarterback you will see a lot of run and a lot of short passes. Despite the terrible matchup, expect volume for both Howard and Cohen; they'll both be serviceable tonight.

Wide receiver Kendall Wright; it's another one of those cases of Trubisky has to throw the ball to somebody. Wright has emerged as the likely go-to candidate leading the team with 14 receptions for 154 yards, and a touchdown. It's not a promising matchup tonight, especially with the expected growing pains with a rookie quarterback making his first start. If you are desperate, Wright will be a tough start tonight.

Tight end Zach Miller; with a rookie quarterback under the center the expectation is the tight end becomes his security blanket. That is likely the rule to follow here to tonight. Miller (30th ranked TE in PPR) has only 13 grabs this season, but may get caught up in a lot of check downs and short routes to keep his quarterback clean. What this likely means for Miller is a busy night for few yards, but he could salvage things with the potential for a red zone grab; but keep in mind Miller has zero touchdowns in four games.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega