FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Night Edition

August 14th, 2019

The First Class of Fantasy

Sometimes it seems like the quarterback position is treated like a first class citizen, in comparison to other positions on the field. They are without question, the most protected and rightfully so.

Rather than posting my complete list of all starting quarterbacks, I’ll just share my thoughts about a couple of the QB1’s for 2019.

At the top of my list for this fantasy season is the Texans starter, (MR#1 QB) Deshaun Watson. He’s a very good passer and dynamic player. With the weapons surrounding him in Houston, such as wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, and with the addition of running back Duke Johnson, Watson should deliver big numbers this season.

Landing in my top five this season is none other than Mr. Quarterback, (MR#3 QB) Aaron Rodgers. The Packers signal caller’s numbers were down a bit last season, but we know he played through injury. This season, a healthy Rodgers will have an opportunity to recapture his crown as the best QB in the league and fantasy.

I like (MR#8 QB) Mr. Baker Mayfield this season, as do many other fantasy enthusiasts, but I am not over the top with my excitement. The Browns quarterback had a very positive rookie campaign last season and with the addition of an elite wide receiver like Odell Beckham Jr, his second year looks very promising. I, however will temper my expectations some and remain grounded, as Mayfield was the number 16 fantasy QB in total points last season, so Top-10 is still trending in the right direction. 

My last notable for the evening is the final quarterback to make my preseason QB1 status, (MR#12 QB) Jameis Winston. Last season the Buccaneers quarterback finished strong in the 2nd half of the season, and all the whispers I keep hearing on the radio shows and popular podcasts suggest, this could be a big season for Winston; he does have some nice weapons.

My QB1’s list

1.Deshaun Watson

2.Patrick Mahomes

3.Aaron Rodgers

4.Andrew Luck

5.Matt Ryan

6.Carson Wentz

7.Cam Newton

8.Baker Mayfield

9.Drew Brees

10.Russell Wilson

11.Jarod Goff

12.Jameis Winston

That’s my take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Night Edition
August 11th, 2019

Fantasy Draft 2019: 
Player Market Exchange is Open

I’ve not usually done this in years past, although heading into every fantasy football season, I am always looking at players like Stocks and Commodities; some you want to buy others you avoid or sell on. Does this sound familiar? It probably does, that’s because it does mirror a lot of those like/dislikes columns you read from the fantasy experts that are put out every pre-season. I just thought this season, I’d join the party and have a little fun with it myself.

So what are typical “Buys” and “Sells?” 

The best I can explain, for the “Buys”, these are not just the players I like, but rather these are players I do like and that I am seeing I can draft where I’d like to take them (currently in mock drafts) and where I am projecting I will take (select) them. 

The sells are not necessarily players I don’t like, to the contrary, I like quite a few of them a lot, very much. But where many of these (sell) players are going in many of the mock drafts I am doing and where they are slotted in current ADP, I don’t like. I am not expecting to draft them there, nor am I likely to reach for them earlier. This season I believe there is enough depth and too much value available in the first 10-12 rounds of your fantasy draft to reach.

So here is a quick list of some of my buys (the players that should be available in your drafts at spots where you can still get value taking them).…

These are two of my favorites, Texans Quarterback Deshaun Watson (current ADP of 6.01 per FFC) and Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (current ADP of 10.5 per FFC). I am very high (top 3 fantasy QB this season) on Watson this season and have found I can grab him around the 5th and early 6th round. I believe Winston will be a mid to top five, QB1 this season and he has been going as late as the 10th-12th rounds.

Another player to Buy that I am excited about this season is Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (current ADP of 4.11 per FFC). His current ADP is about right in my opinion and this talented runner figures prominently in the Broncos offense; he’s going to see more than enough opportunity to finish as a top 20 fantasy running back.

Additional 2019 Buys:
QB, Aaron Rodgers; this will be a big year for A-rod.
QB, Matt Ryan; he returns to the MVP conversation.
RB, Tevin Coleman; no news here. No Mckinnon, he’s on the rise.
RB, Derrius Guice; he’s healthy and love him after the 7th.
WR, Chris Godwin; if he’s my number one WR, I’m okay with that.
WR, Calvin Ridley; can’t teach speed, takes huge steps forward in 2019.
TE, Jorden Reed; as late as he’s going, he’s a steal.

This is my quick list of players that I may avoid or won’t draft, because their value does not match the price (current ADP) in my opinion….

The Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (current ADP of 3.04 per FFC) figures to come back to earth some this season, closing the gap between his fantasy output and say the 4th and 5th fantasy quarterbacks. Don’t get me wrong, he’s an elite talent, but going as early as the 2nd and 3rd rounds in many drafts, I just don’t see myself taking a QB that early. Now, of course, should he fall a couple of rounds later, I am not wasting a moment to jump all over that.

Holdout Running backs Melvin Gordon (Chargers) and Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys) carry too much risk for me to bother using an early draft pick on either. Gordon has an ADP of 3.03 per FFC, which continues to fall; past the 4th round I may consider. Like Gordon, Elliott (current ADP of 1.05 per FFC) is currently holding out, although there’s a feeling he may get a deal done sooner, rather than later. My feeling is I can build my team without the risk and headache.

Additional Sells;
QB, Baker Mayfield; a lot of promise, still going too early.
QB, Kyler Murray; need to see it first, other options available.
RB, Jerick McKinnon; too much risk with that knee.
WR, Antonio Brown; too much noise and distraction, and may not play.
WR, AJ Green; not healthy, going to miss a chunk of games.

That’s my take.
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition
August 10th, 2019

The Return of Fantasy Football

It’s been a bit of a hiatus for me, but it’s that time of the year again and I have returned to my computer to once again engage in Fantasy football conversation.

Now it’s not like Fantasy Football was my best girl that went away for a long spell, but for the long months of the football offseason she has been missed dearly. 

With NFL training camps in full swing and the first week of Preseason games nearly complete, she is back! The new fantasy football season is here and fantasy drafts are right around the corner; are you ready for some fantasy football?

For myself, my early prep has been engaging in the latest, but not the newest trend of ever growing in popularity Best Ball drafts. I am loving these leagues, especially with the slow clocks; 8 hours works for this guy who often has a lot of distractions that can get in the way.

So, enough with small talk, time to dig into some fantasy chatter to open things up.

This being my first entry of the 2019 season, I’m not going to go to deep into my speculations or predictions, but rather just keep this opening announcement to the new season succinct.

This time of the year is always the best for us football enthusiasts and it’s even greater for those of us that enjoy playing fantasy football. Along with the NFL camps opening fantasy shows on the radio and podcasts online are heating up with relevant conversation for the upcoming season. I am an avid listener of many shows and yes, I’ve already picked up my three fantasy mags for my upcoming live drafts later in the month of August.

Best Ball leagues have been a great way for myself to jump back in the mix in a fast way, but I am keeping in mind this format is a beast of its own and is very different than the regular season long redraft league.

Along with participating in the many BB drafts I have completed (my current count as of this blog entry is at 4 leagues), I am still in the middle of several and plan on adding quite a few more. If I have anything to share at this time, my biggest takeaway from playing in these Best Ball drafts thus far is learned strategy.

Just like your Daily Fantasy sports lineups, for me anyway, in BB “stacking” has become very popular. As I draft receivers or pass-catching running backs, when it’s time to snatch a quarterback I am often looking at stacking. I am finding now, that as I draft in the early rounds of Best Ball, I am positioning these “stacks.”

I will leave with this, there are a lot of interesting stories concerning players in new places, change of scenery, with many potential outcomes; in my next entry I will share some of my early season Buy and Share list.

That’s my take.
~David G. Ortega