FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Wednesday Night Edition

August 14th, 2019

The First Class of Fantasy

Sometimes it seems like the quarterback position is treated like a first class citizen, in comparison to other positions on the field. They are without question, the most protected and rightfully so.

Rather than posting my complete list of all starting quarterbacks, I’ll just share my thoughts about a couple of the QB1’s for 2019.

At the top of my list for this fantasy season is the Texans starter, (MR#1 QB) Deshaun Watson. He’s a very good passer and dynamic player. With the weapons surrounding him in Houston, such as wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, and with the addition of running back Duke Johnson, Watson should deliver big numbers this season.

Landing in my top five this season is none other than Mr. Quarterback, (MR#3 QB) Aaron Rodgers. The Packers signal caller’s numbers were down a bit last season, but we know he played through injury. This season, a healthy Rodgers will have an opportunity to recapture his crown as the best QB in the league and fantasy.

I like (MR#8 QB) Mr. Baker Mayfield this season, as do many other fantasy enthusiasts, but I am not over the top with my excitement. The Browns quarterback had a very positive rookie campaign last season and with the addition of an elite wide receiver like Odell Beckham Jr, his second year looks very promising. I, however will temper my expectations some and remain grounded, as Mayfield was the number 16 fantasy QB in total points last season, so Top-10 is still trending in the right direction. 

My last notable for the evening is the final quarterback to make my preseason QB1 status, (MR#12 QB) Jameis Winston. Last season the Buccaneers quarterback finished strong in the 2nd half of the season, and all the whispers I keep hearing on the radio shows and popular podcasts suggest, this could be a big season for Winston; he does have some nice weapons.

My QB1’s list

1.Deshaun Watson

2.Patrick Mahomes

3.Aaron Rodgers

4.Andrew Luck

5.Matt Ryan

6.Carson Wentz

7.Cam Newton

8.Baker Mayfield

9.Drew Brees

10.Russell Wilson

11.Jarod Goff

12.Jameis Winston

That’s my take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 5th 2017

Tuesday Night Edition

That’s My Take 2017

Fantasy Player Notes

I’ve manage to participate in quite a number of fantasy drafts this preseason and through my draft software and web-surfing travels I’ve managed to make a lot of mental notes (as well as a few on the back of napkins). With the 2017 NFL season less than 48 hours from kick-off, I thought I’d share several of my thoughts or two cents (or any denomination you care to leave in my ball cap perch in front of me).

Fantasy Quarterbacks

Derek Carr

I like the Raiders quarterback Derek Carr this season. He’s got the weapons (Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook) to throw to, the team has added “Beast Mode” (Marshawn Lynch) to bolster the run game, if Lynch can hold up and shake the rust. Last season Carr was playing well enough to warrant MVP conversation; with all the pieces he has this season there is no reason to believe he can’t work some magic again in 2017. He’s a QB1 (going off the boards around the 7th round according to FFC) with MVP upside.

Carson Wentz

Another young arm with my vote of confidence this season is Carson Wentz. The kid showed a lot of composure out of the gate last season and now with a full-season under his belt, full slate of OTAs, I think he’s ready to move up the fantasy tree. The team has brought in some veteran receiver help with the additions of Alshon Jeffery (a big target) and Torrey Smith and he still has his trusty tight end Zach Ertz (78 receptions in 2016). Wentz is not being drafted as a starter, but he is definitely a nice streaming option for the bye weeks, Superflex plays, and DFS players (playing the matchups).

Ben Roethlisberger

The Steelers quarterback Big Ben get’s one of his special toys back this season with the return of wide receiver Martavis Bryant, add a healthy Le’Veon Bell available for week 1 and Whoa! Roethlisberger is a QB1, but where is his ceiling? His health is going to be an issue, but if his line can keep him upright with the weapons he has in Pittsburgh, that include wide receiver Antonio Brown Big Ben has a chance for a monster season. His 9th round ADP (according to FFC) is some nice value for those that like to wait on the quarterback pick.

Carson Palmer

A lot of folks are down this season on the Cardinals signal caller, but I am not one. Yes Carson Palmer is entering his 15th season and yes last year looked like he was playing in his 16th season, but as bad as he looked his still passed for over 4,200 yards and tossed 26 touchdowns (a big regression from 2015). But I offer you, the insertion of (a healthy we hope) wide receiver John Brown is going to make a big difference and add the crutch of running back David Johnson. The Cards have a much underrated offense this season, one that has potential for big weeks. Palmer is going off the boards very late (as the No.19 fantasy QB), but is another nice streaming option and late round add as your QB back-up (if you choose to carry two quarterbacks).

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

Next up Fantasy Running backs

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 11th 2017

Monday Night Edition

On the Cover this Week

Mr. 5000 (Fantasy Gold)

The Saints Drew Brees is like the Golden Goose in fantasy football when it comes to quarterbacks. Every year he just produces to fantasy owners delight. Over the past 11 seasons Brees has finished no worse than the No.6 fantasy quarterback, including two number one finishes.

Brees leads one of the league’s premiere offenses, ranked as the top passing offense in the league two years in a row. This season, even with the loss of wide receiver Brandin Cooks, the Saints passing game remains healthy as Brees will have lots of weapons to throw to once again.

Brees has posted staggering passing numbers throughout his career. He is only one of four quarterbacks in the history of the NFL to throw for over 5,000 yards in a season and he’s done it five times. He has actually passed for more than 5,000 yards in four of his last six campaigns, including over 4,800 yards in all six.

Since 2010 (7 straight seasons), the Saints quarterback has completed no fewer than 422 passes in each season, averaging 448 completions per season over that span; that’s a lot of targets to go around. Brees also threw 37 touchdowns in 2016, it was the 9th straight season he has thrown 30 or more touchdowns in a season.

Let’s face it, Brees is Fantasy Gold!

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd 2017

Sunday Night Late Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

The holiday weekend is almost to a close, but there is still plenty of fantasy football to cover, fantasy drafts to be had, and fantasy players to discuss. Always the questions to be asked once you drafted a player or your team; Did I find good value? Is there too much risk? Is this player a stud? Did I take him too early?

Well here are a few players that I’ll offer my answer on;

Studs (target these guys)

Call me a believer and call him Matty Ice, but I like the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan this season once again. Some folks may think his epic and career performance last season is more of an anomaly than the norm, but I see it as a trend. Ryan posted career numbers in passing touchdowns (38), passing yards (4,944), completion percentage (69.9), and QB rating (117.13). Since 2012 he has passed for over 4,500 yards every season, his completion percentage has remained steady above 65 percent. Last year was a big year with a high touchdown volume and few turnovers (7 interceptions), so coming back with virtually all of the same pieces in place on offense, I expect similar results. He’s the number four quarterback going off the boards, where he belongs.

The Redskins tight end Jordan Reed is one of those risks and rewards picks this year. When he’s healthy, he’s as good as the best at his position, putting up fantasy numbers that rival the Patriots Rob Gronkowski. Last season from weeks 1 to 5 and then again from weeks 8 to 12, Reed was the No. 3 scoring fantasy tight end in the NFL. During these two spans the Redskins tight end totaled 81 targets, 59 receptions, 630 yards receiving, and 5 scores; extrapolated over 16 games that’s a line of 105-1120-9. If Reed is healthy this season, his upside is Gronk-like. Even with the risk, he’s worth the take around his mid-5th round ADP (according to FFC) and any later than that he’s a great value.

Duds (drafting too early)

To again clarify, my definition of Dud is not a bust, but rather just under performing their current draft position. When I talk about the Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, the word bust is not a part of the conversation. Mariota has been steady since his arrival finishing the 2016 campaign as the No. 13 fantasy quarterback. This season the Titan’s signal caller has a few new toys; the addition of veteran wide receiver Eric Decker and rookie receiver Corey Davis. The thing fantasy owners need to remember, last season the Titans were 4th in the NFL with 476 rushing attempts, 3rd in the league in rushing yards per game, and threw the 5th fewest passes. This season the Titans may throw a little more, but their primary weapon is their run game. What I expect to see from Mariota is a lot of efficiency, not necessarily greater volume. On the other hand I see several other passers such as Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, and Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball considerably more. Mariota is a QB1 in 10-12 team leagues, but his total numbers may leave him closer to his No.13 finish from last season, rather than his No.7 fantasy quarterback going off the board.

Another quarterback that I view in similar light to Mariota is the Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Again, it’s not so much what he does or doesn’t do, but it’s where he lands compared to other quarterbacks going off the board right after him. Wilson is being drafted as the No. 5 quarterback ahead of Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, and Andrew Luck. I have him as my No.12 fantasy quarterback this season, following a No.10 finish in 2016. Last year Wilson needed 546 passes, 63 more than his career high to post his number 10 finish; this is not something I expect to see him repeat. He’ll be efficient and could be easily be Top10 (with better numbers this season), but I think other quarterbacks (the ones mentioned) are more likely to have the opportunity to post Top-10 fantasy numbers this season.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega