FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 4th 2017

Monday afternoon Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

It’s the holiday and a great day to play fantasy football or at least draft a team and if you are like me, that’s just what you might be doing? And speaking of drafting, if that’s the case, here are a couple of more Studs and Duds to consider;

Studs (target these players)

If I am looking at an a wide receiver with an early pick, there are several that I like, but a big favorite for me this season has to be the Buccaneers Mike Evans. The Bucs 4th year wide receiver was the No. 3 fantasy receiver in 2016 (PPR format), No.1 in standard leagues. Evans has been a top flight receiver since his arrival in 2014 and last season he arrived; 96 receptions, 1,321 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns. Evans has finished inside the Top-15 (PPR) twice in his three seasons and looks to be a lock to finish in the Top-5 this season. He and his quarterback Jameis Winston enjoy great chemistry and enter their third season together. I believe this season Evans takes the next step in fantasy and joins the elite.

An interesting signing in Philly this offseason has me looking at wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. The former Bear will be a big target over the middle in the passing game and for young quarterback Carson Wentz, Jeffery will be an ideal red-zone threat. Jeffery looked good in the team’s third preseason game catching a couple of passes, including a score and if that’s any indication of what fantasy owners can expect, drafting Alshon early should pay dividends. Jeffery is currently going off the board around the No. 18 fantasy receiver in PPR (according to FFC); I like him here, would even consider taking him ahead of players like DeAndre Hopkins and Terrelle Pryor.

Duds (drafting too high)

It seems one of the hottest fantasy stocks in current drafts is the Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. I’ve heard a lot of the noise too, Andy Reid likes his guys, but remember Hunt did not win this job (not to say he’s not deserving or capable), but he is the starter now by default with running back Spencer Ware going down for the season. Hunt may in fact play very well for the Chiefs this season, but I think that’s really a little too early to call. The Chiefs still have running backs Charcandrick West and (resigned) CJ Spiller who may compete for touches. Hunt is currently going off the boards as the No. 10 fantasy back (in PPR formats according to FFC), but that’s just a little too rich and high expectation for my blood with proven runners like Todd Gurley (heavy volume), Isaiah Crowell (volume), Lamar Miller, and Carlos Hyde (all Top-20 last season) still on the board.

Now this may be the most controversial thus far this season for me, but I’ve seen the Jaguars passing offense and I am just wondering how rookie running back Leonard Fournette is going to find any room to run. The big back out of LSU is expected to see plenty of opportunity this season, but could be slow out of the gate dealing with a foot injury. He’s also expected to anchor the running game for a bad offense (ranked 23rd last season) that struggled on the ground (ranked 22nd in 2016). Fournette will add improvement, but the Jags also have a few other backs that could carve out small roles in the offense. For his rookie campaign, I can see Fournette finishing in the 20-24 fantasy running back range, but not at his current ADP of 3.03, the No.13 fantasy running back off the board (in PPR). He’ll fare better in standard, but he’s one player I will relax on and look to take a round or two later (if available).

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd 2017

Sunday Night Late Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

The holiday weekend is almost to a close, but there is still plenty of fantasy football to cover, fantasy drafts to be had, and fantasy players to discuss. Always the questions to be asked once you drafted a player or your team; Did I find good value? Is there too much risk? Is this player a stud? Did I take him too early?

Well here are a few players that I’ll offer my answer on;

Studs (target these guys)

Call me a believer and call him Matty Ice, but I like the Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan this season once again. Some folks may think his epic and career performance last season is more of an anomaly than the norm, but I see it as a trend. Ryan posted career numbers in passing touchdowns (38), passing yards (4,944), completion percentage (69.9), and QB rating (117.13). Since 2012 he has passed for over 4,500 yards every season, his completion percentage has remained steady above 65 percent. Last year was a big year with a high touchdown volume and few turnovers (7 interceptions), so coming back with virtually all of the same pieces in place on offense, I expect similar results. He’s the number four quarterback going off the boards, where he belongs.

The Redskins tight end Jordan Reed is one of those risks and rewards picks this year. When he’s healthy, he’s as good as the best at his position, putting up fantasy numbers that rival the Patriots Rob Gronkowski. Last season from weeks 1 to 5 and then again from weeks 8 to 12, Reed was the No. 3 scoring fantasy tight end in the NFL. During these two spans the Redskins tight end totaled 81 targets, 59 receptions, 630 yards receiving, and 5 scores; extrapolated over 16 games that’s a line of 105-1120-9. If Reed is healthy this season, his upside is Gronk-like. Even with the risk, he’s worth the take around his mid-5th round ADP (according to FFC) and any later than that he’s a great value.

Duds (drafting too early)

To again clarify, my definition of Dud is not a bust, but rather just under performing their current draft position. When I talk about the Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota, the word bust is not a part of the conversation. Mariota has been steady since his arrival finishing the 2016 campaign as the No. 13 fantasy quarterback. This season the Titan’s signal caller has a few new toys; the addition of veteran wide receiver Eric Decker and rookie receiver Corey Davis. The thing fantasy owners need to remember, last season the Titans were 4th in the NFL with 476 rushing attempts, 3rd in the league in rushing yards per game, and threw the 5th fewest passes. This season the Titans may throw a little more, but their primary weapon is their run game. What I expect to see from Mariota is a lot of efficiency, not necessarily greater volume. On the other hand I see several other passers such as Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, and Ben Roethlisberger throwing the ball considerably more. Mariota is a QB1 in 10-12 team leagues, but his total numbers may leave him closer to his No.13 finish from last season, rather than his No.7 fantasy quarterback going off the board.

Another quarterback that I view in similar light to Mariota is the Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Again, it’s not so much what he does or doesn’t do, but it’s where he lands compared to other quarterbacks going off the board right after him. Wilson is being drafted as the No. 5 quarterback ahead of Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, and Andrew Luck. I have him as my No.12 fantasy quarterback this season, following a No.10 finish in 2016. Last year Wilson needed 546 passes, 63 more than his career high to post his number 10 finish; this is not something I expect to see him repeat. He’ll be efficient and could be easily be Top10 (with better numbers this season), but I think other quarterbacks (the ones mentioned) are more likely to have the opportunity to post Top-10 fantasy numbers this season.

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega