FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING QUICK TAKES (WEEK 10)

November 12th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Week 10 FF Quick Takes

The Rambling Runners

Gus Edwards (Ravens)

The Ravens running back has had the hot hand of late scoring 6 rushing touchdowns his last three games. This week he faces the Browns 6th ranked run defense, so treading on the ground this week could be tough, fantasy managers should temper expectations a bit.

Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)

Even with the return of David Montgomery this week, the rookie runner (Gibbs) should be a featured piece in the run as well as the passing game. Gibbs has 18 receptions for 106 receiving yards in his last three games.

Rachaad White (Buccaneers)

The Bucs running back has been trending upward over the last several weeks with 17 receptions for 181 receiving yards over his last three games. He’ll also have a chance to do some damage on the ground against the Titans run defense that has allowed the 3rd most rushing yards the last two weeks.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition
November 9th 2019

DFS Saturday

It’s almost Sunday of NFL Week 10, and there are a lot of good matchups and ways to go with when building your lineups. The first place I am starting has to be the prime Fantasy matchup between the Buccaneers and the Cardinals; the over-under is set at 54 points.

Both defenses rank near the bottom against the pass (Ari-29th, TB-32nd), so there should be and could be a plethora of points on Sunday.

Players of interest for those that may be considering, Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston will face a Cardinals defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 24 touchdowns (tied for most in the league). 

Getting the start this week, the Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones III will get a crack at the Cardinals defense that has allowed the 8th most rushing yards to opposing running backs, including 4.4 yards per carry.

On the other side, this may be a great week for Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, who will face the Bucs defense that allows the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 19 touchdowns (2nd most in the league).

What would also make a great stack and connection with Murray is wide receiver Christian Kirk. The Buccaneers defense allows the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. 

There are of course no guarantees when playing DFS, but I like my chances with these matchups on Sunday.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Friday Late Night Edition
September 20th, 2019

Week 3: On the Cover this Week

In Godwin we Trust

In pre-season fantasy drafts, the Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin was getting a lot of love from fantasy owners, coming off the boards as the WR15 according to Fantasy Football Calculator. Through the first two weeks of the 2019 NFL, Godwin has not disappointed with a touchdown grab in each of his first two games.

If you targeted Godwin early in drafts and were able to snag him as your second receiver, your investment is paying off early and could pay huge dividends later as well. Godwin is currently ranked as the number 13 fantasy receiver after two weeks (PPR scoring) with 11 receptions for 174 yards receiving and two touchdowns.

Last season Godwin and quarterback Jameis Winston found a groove over the last two weeks of the 2018 season; a small sample size yes, but something to build off. There was a lot of buzz in the preseason and it appears, good things for Godwin could be just around the corner.

Through the first two weeks of the 2019 season, Godwin currently leads the team with 15 targets, he also leads the Bucs in receptions, yards receiving, and receiving touchdowns. Next on tap for Godwin and the Buccaneers are the Giants of New York who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Giants secondary has also surrendered 550 yards receiving to wideouts, most in the league. 

With this savory matchup next on the slate, Godwin looks to be a solid fantasy bet to keep trending upward.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Night Edition

September 22nd, 2018

On the Cover This Week!

Do you believe in Magic?

How about FitzMagic?

In two weeks the Bucs quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has turned the fantasy world upside down; but are you buying it?

In two starts this season Fitzpatrick has passed for an astounding 819 passing yards (on pace for over 6,500 yards in 16 games), 8 passing touchdowns with one rushing; that’s a pace for 72 touchdowns in 16 games. To add FitzMagic is also completing near 79 percent of his passes; 48 of 61 and he currently leads all fantasy in scoring.

While the pace seems unsustainable, the FitzMagic carpet ride is likely to continue into week 3. With a Monday night showdown at home with the Pittsburgh Steelers, FitzMagic and the Bucs offense will be facing the league’s 15th ranked defense against the pass.

The Steelers secondary has allowed 7 passing touchdowns in two games, most in the league and they are allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (standard scoring). They have also given up 9 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season, tied for 7th, while FitzMagic and the Bucs passing game have completed 12 such pass plays of 20 yards or more, including 4 for 40 yards or more (most in the league).

This definitely sounds like a recipe for another huge game for Fitzpatrick who was removed from the Bucs injury report this week and will likely have wide receiver Chris Godwin available, along with Mike Evans (230 receiving yards/2 tds), the 6th ranked fantasy WR in standard scoring, and DeSean Jackson (275 receiving yards/3 tds), the number one ranked fantasy WR  in standard scoring.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 15th 2017

Friday Afternoon Edition

My Weekly DFS Play

Here’s my Week 2 lineup for Fan Duel;

QB-Derek Carr ($8,300): The Raiders starter played well on the road last week and this week he gets the lowly Jets who will have to travel across the country. This meeting sets up as a very favorable matchup for Carr. He’s coming off a great 2016 campaign (before getting hurt) and again played well in week one, he’ll likely lead the way again on Sunday.

RB-Melvin Gordon ($7,600): The Chargers running back got plenty of work in week 1 against a tough Broncos defense. He should see similar work in week 2 with greater success playing at home and facing a Dolphins defense that will have to travel across the country. I like Gordon as a top 10 running back this week.

RB-Devonta Freeman ($8,100): Like the Patriots-Saints matchup this week, the Packers-Falcons Sunday night matchup has the prospects of being a high scoring affair. The Freeman and the Falcons will be at home where they seem to be a better team than on the road and this will be a grand-opening of their new stadium. Freeman had a bit of a quiet first week, but in this one I look for him to get plenty of work and put up plenty of points.

WR-Michael Thomas ($8,000) & WR-Brandin Cooks ($7,900): The Saints-Patriots matchup has all of the makings of an old-fashioned western shootout at the O.K. Corral. Both teams have two prolific passers and with secondaries that struggled mightily in week one; need I say more. Both Thomas and Cooks are going to see plenty of shots down the field on each side and could be in for big nights in this Clash of the (quarterback) Titans; Brady versus Brees.

WR-Nelson Agholor ($5,500): The Eagles receiver was effective and open a lot in week one and should remain on his quarterback’s radar in this week 2 road match up with the Chiefs. At his price, he offers great value for a receiver who figures to see his fair share; Agholor was target 8 times turning in a line of 6/86/1 in week 1. Similar numbers could surface on Sunday.

TE-Jared Cook ($5,100): At his price Cook is a great value in a preferable matchup this week. Cook was 5 for 5 (targets & catches) for 56 yards, but could see increased production against a Jets defense surrendered 14.30 fantasy points to the tight end last week. I like him this week as a stack with Carr.

K-Will Lutz ($4,700): With the Patriots coming to town this week, the Sunday affair figures to be a shoot and a lot of points. Lutz should be very busy once again after putting up 14 fantasy points in week 1.

D-Buccaneers ($4,500): I am going with gut instinct here. Bucs will be at home in which should be an emotional game with the recent events. Winston and company should help control tempo and allow the defense to stay aggressive.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 4th 2017

Monday afternoon Edition

Fantasy Watch List

Studs & Duds

It’s the holiday and a great day to play fantasy football or at least draft a team and if you are like me, that’s just what you might be doing? And speaking of drafting, if that’s the case, here are a couple of more Studs and Duds to consider;

Studs (target these players)

If I am looking at an a wide receiver with an early pick, there are several that I like, but a big favorite for me this season has to be the Buccaneers Mike Evans. The Bucs 4th year wide receiver was the No. 3 fantasy receiver in 2016 (PPR format), No.1 in standard leagues. Evans has been a top flight receiver since his arrival in 2014 and last season he arrived; 96 receptions, 1,321 yards receiving, and 12 touchdowns. Evans has finished inside the Top-15 (PPR) twice in his three seasons and looks to be a lock to finish in the Top-5 this season. He and his quarterback Jameis Winston enjoy great chemistry and enter their third season together. I believe this season Evans takes the next step in fantasy and joins the elite.

An interesting signing in Philly this offseason has me looking at wide receiver Alshon Jeffery. The former Bear will be a big target over the middle in the passing game and for young quarterback Carson Wentz, Jeffery will be an ideal red-zone threat. Jeffery looked good in the team’s third preseason game catching a couple of passes, including a score and if that’s any indication of what fantasy owners can expect, drafting Alshon early should pay dividends. Jeffery is currently going off the board around the No. 18 fantasy receiver in PPR (according to FFC); I like him here, would even consider taking him ahead of players like DeAndre Hopkins and Terrelle Pryor.

Duds (drafting too high)

It seems one of the hottest fantasy stocks in current drafts is the Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. I’ve heard a lot of the noise too, Andy Reid likes his guys, but remember Hunt did not win this job (not to say he’s not deserving or capable), but he is the starter now by default with running back Spencer Ware going down for the season. Hunt may in fact play very well for the Chiefs this season, but I think that’s really a little too early to call. The Chiefs still have running backs Charcandrick West and (resigned) CJ Spiller who may compete for touches. Hunt is currently going off the boards as the No. 10 fantasy back (in PPR formats according to FFC), but that’s just a little too rich and high expectation for my blood with proven runners like Todd Gurley (heavy volume), Isaiah Crowell (volume), Lamar Miller, and Carlos Hyde (all Top-20 last season) still on the board.

Now this may be the most controversial thus far this season for me, but I’ve seen the Jaguars passing offense and I am just wondering how rookie running back Leonard Fournette is going to find any room to run. The big back out of LSU is expected to see plenty of opportunity this season, but could be slow out of the gate dealing with a foot injury. He’s also expected to anchor the running game for a bad offense (ranked 23rd last season) that struggled on the ground (ranked 22nd in 2016). Fournette will add improvement, but the Jags also have a few other backs that could carve out small roles in the offense. For his rookie campaign, I can see Fournette finishing in the 20-24 fantasy running back range, but not at his current ADP of 3.03, the No.13 fantasy running back off the board (in PPR). He’ll fare better in standard, but he’s one player I will relax on and look to take a round or two later (if available).

That’s My Take. ~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SFFL WEEK 14

Sunday Edition
December 9th, 2012

  

Suicide Fantasy Football

Week 14

With the season winding down, my team is gearing up each week to make a run. Last week we posted a score of 118.52 points led by Bryce Brown’s (34.30 fantasy points) big game on Sunday night against the Cowboys and Cecil Shorts (20.70 fantasy points) effort against the Bills. 

The climb to the top is still steep, but there is light at the end. My SSFL team has climbed inside the top 10, for the moment and there’s no time to look back now.

Here’s my week 14 picks;

My Line-up 

Quarterback:
The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman is having a solid 2012 with 23 touchdowns and 3,003 passing yards. Freeman is a top 10 quarterback this week facing the Eagles 31st ranked pass defense. In his last two starts his numbers have been modest, but this week he faces a defense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks. This is the ideal week to start Freeman is you don’t have better options.

Running Backs:
On Thursday I played Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno and 119 yards rushing with a touchdown I was not disappointed. His 26.70 points have my fantasy team on the right track for week 14.

My other ball carrier this week is the Jets running back Shonn Greene. The Jets running game has not been much to get excited about this season, but this may be one of its best matchups this season facing the Jaguars (ranked 31st against the run). Greene is not a candidate for a huge output today, but he could record his third 100 yard effort this season and find himself making a trip or two to the end zone.

Wide Receivers:
With the Giants on the slate this week for the traveling Saints, I am expecting quarterback Drew Brees to attack the secondary deep and often. There’s no question his best weapon this season has been wide receiver Marques Colston (61 receptions, 828 yards receiving). Facing the Giants 22nd ranked pass defense, Colston should be able to take advantage of a secondary that allows the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers.

On the other side out wide I am rolling with the Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings. This is Rodgers most trusted and reliable receiver, so you know the quarterback will have plenty of confidence looking his direction. Facing the Lions in what looks to be an aerial fest, I expect Jennings to see as many if not more than the 8 targets he saw last week, especially with Jordy Nelson on the sidelines.

Tight End:
I took a shot with the Raiders tight end Brandon Myers, coming off a career game a week ago. The Raiders offense has typically been pass happy, but on Thursday night the Broncos took away one of quarterback Carson Palmer’s favorite targets limiting Myers to just one catch for 7 yards.

Place Kicker:
The Buccaneers offense has been a bit of surprise this season and with a nice matchup at home against the Eagles defense. I expect to see the Bucs set up many scoring chances today, but will not be surprised to see them lean on kicker Conner Barth to convert a handful of opportunities.

Team Defense:
With the Buccaneers at home this week facing a rookie quarterback making only the third start of his career, I like their defense to play well. The Buccaneers are number one against the run and should keep rookie quarterback Nick Foles in third and long most of the afternoon. The Eagles are prone to mistakes and give up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses; I’m starting the Buccaneers.


These are my picks for week 14.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THURSDAY'S TAKE

Thursday Edition
October 25th, 2012  

Thursdays Take

Starts

With quarterback Josh Freeman playing at such a high level of late, it’s hard not to like his Week 8 matchup against the Vikings this week. Even though the Buccaneers are on the road, Freeman has a nice matchup against a Vikings defense that is ranked 11th in the league versus the pass and has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Freeman has passed for over 1,000 yards and tossed seven touchdowns in his last three starts and looks primed to continue his hot hand tonight. 

The Vikings wide receiver Percy Harvin has been Mr. Everything for the offense this season, leading the team with 53 receptions and 646 scrimmage yards. Last week Harvin was held in check by a stingy Cardinals secondary, but that all could change tonight against the Buccaneers. The Bucs allow the 9th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season and Percy has managed to find the end-zone three times in his last three games; look for a productive evening from the Vikings playmaker. Last season in their lone matchup against the Bucs, Harvin tallied 7 grabs for 76 yards.

With the awakening of the Bucs passing game over the past several weeks, tight end Dallas Clark is suddenly relevant again in fantasy. Clark is coming off his best and busiest performance this season. In week 7 Clark was targeted 6 times, snagging five balls for 51 yards and a score against the Cardinals. Fantasy owners could be licking their chops with Clark set to face the Vikings tonight. The Vikings defense has allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends making Clark an attractive option for week 8.

Sits

The Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder is coming off a horrendous passing performance in week 7 versus the Cardinals. Last week Ponder passed for just 58 yards completing just 8 passes. While no one expects his numbers to be quite as bad tonight against the Bucs, his prospect of playing well does not look good. The Bucs 31st ranked pass defense has allowed 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Owners can expect a lot more yards than 58 this week, but finding the end zone tonight could be difficult; especially with AP in the red zone.

The Bucs running back Doug Martin has been consistent the past two weeks averaging over 120 scrimmage yards per game. Facing a couple of soft defenses versus the run the past two games, Martin will be lining up against the leagues number 11 ground stopper. The Vikings have also been very stingy in fantasy allowing running back the 4th fewest points. If you own Martin you may be faced with having to start him tonight, but just be sure to taper your expectations; it could be a long night.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

March 12th, 2011 Saturday

David’s Daily Digest

2011 Fantasy Football Players

With future of the 2011 season currently in limbo as the two sides decide how to split our (the fans) money, we’ll continue with prepping for the coming season which still has every possibility of starting on time. Even if this dispute drags well into the summer, there is every indication from many of the prognosticators following the situation that the 2011 season can still be salvaged with just a few games less.

On that note we continue our tour of the 2011 fantasy players looking through the class of quarterback talent that will be available in fantasy drafts this summer….

Fantasy Quarterback…..

Josh Freeman (Buccaneers)

In just his second year, the Buccaneers’ starting quarterback Josh Freeman helped lead his team to a 10-6 record, just missing the playoffs. Last season Freeman passed for nearly 3,500 yards and tossed 25 touchdowns with just six picks finishing with a passer rating of 95.9 (ranked 6th in the league). Freeman was particularly efficient and effective down the stretch in his last four starts completing nearly 73% of his passes while throwing nine touchdowns and no interceptions.

At 6’6” Freeman has the ideal size to be your traditional pocket passer, but with 364 yards rushing he has great escape-ability and athleticism to be even more dangerous out of the pocket. Following a very sub-par and non-spectacular rookie season Freeman flew well under the fantasy radar in 2010, but after his sophomore success he’s going to be on many owners draft lists this summer.

The Buccaneers are a fastly improving program and with young talent like LeGarrette Blount, Mike Williams, and Kellen Winslow Jr. surrounding their young quarterback, Freeman will only get better. He’s not reached the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL just yet, but Freeman is well on his way.

Freeman is not likely to throw for a big chunk of yardage at any particular time with the Bucs being more of a balanced team that likes to run, but he’s still a close second tier level fantasy quarterback (amongst the Flaccos and Schaubs). His talent and skill level would suggest big game possibility as evident in his five touchdown performance against the Seahawks in week 16 last season, but the young gunslinger should still be considered a bit of a risky fantasy starter.

Last season Freeman had nine games in 2010 where he threw one or fewer touchdowns; in three of those games he also passed for less than 200 yards. He would probably serve much better as your number two quarterback; his accuracy offers the upside of an occasional big game (look for the matchups); he did have three games last season where he passed for more than 200 yards with multiple touchdowns.

In dynasty and keeper leagues, he’s definitely one worth stashing on the back of the grill while he seasons a bit longer (but not for too much longer).

By David Ortega