Sunday Edition
December 9th, 2012
Suicide Fantasy Football
Week 14
With the season winding down, my team is gearing up each week to make a run. Last week we posted a score of 118.52 points led by Bryce Brown’s (34.30 fantasy points) big game on Sunday night against the Cowboys and Cecil Shorts (20.70 fantasy points) effort against the Bills.
The climb to the top is still steep, but there is light at the end. My SSFL team has climbed inside the top 10, for the moment and there’s no time to look back now.
Here’s my week 14 picks;
My Line-up
Quarterback:
The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman is having a solid 2012 with 23 touchdowns and 3,003 passing yards. Freeman is a top 10 quarterback this week facing the Eagles 31st ranked pass defense. In his last two starts his numbers have been modest, but this week he faces a defense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to quarterbacks. This is the ideal week to start Freeman is you don’t have better options.
Running Backs:
On Thursday I played Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno and 119 yards rushing with a touchdown I was not disappointed. His 26.70 points have my fantasy team on the right track for week 14.
My other ball carrier this week is the Jets running back Shonn Greene. The Jets running game has not been much to get excited about this season, but this may be one of its best matchups this season facing the Jaguars (ranked 31st against the run). Greene is not a candidate for a huge output today, but he could record his third 100 yard effort this season and find himself making a trip or two to the end zone.
Wide Receivers:
With the Giants on the slate this week for the traveling Saints, I am expecting quarterback Drew Brees to attack the secondary deep and often. There’s no question his best weapon this season has been wide receiver Marques Colston (61 receptions, 828 yards receiving). Facing the Giants 22nd ranked pass defense, Colston should be able to take advantage of a secondary that allows the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers.
On the other side out wide I am rolling with the Packers wide receiver Greg Jennings. This is Rodgers most trusted and reliable receiver, so you know the quarterback will have plenty of confidence looking his direction. Facing the Lions in what looks to be an aerial fest, I expect Jennings to see as many if not more than the 8 targets he saw last week, especially with Jordy Nelson on the sidelines.
Tight End:
I took a shot with the Raiders tight end Brandon Myers, coming off a career game a week ago. The Raiders offense has typically been pass happy, but on Thursday night the Broncos took away one of quarterback Carson Palmer’s favorite targets limiting Myers to just one catch for 7 yards.
Place Kicker:
The Buccaneers offense has been a bit of surprise this season and with a nice matchup at home against the Eagles defense. I expect to see the Bucs set up many scoring chances today, but will not be surprised to see them lean on kicker Conner Barth to convert a handful of opportunities.
Team Defense:
With the Buccaneers at home this week facing a rookie quarterback making only the third start of his career, I like their defense to play well. The Buccaneers are number one against the run and should keep rookie quarterback Nick Foles in third and long most of the afternoon. The Eagles are prone to mistakes and give up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses; I’m starting the Buccaneers.
These are my picks for week 14.
By David Ortega
Tuesday Edition
December 4th, 2012
David’s Daily Digest
Alex Green Value on the Rise
The recent rumor circulating concerning the Packers backfield, running back James Starks could be done for the season. Starks suffered a knee injury on Sunday and the word going round is it could shut him down for the remainder of the season. This is all just speculation at this time, but if Starks is done running back Alex Green will lead the parade in the Packers backfield. It’s no secret the Packers throw the ball, so even running a solo show Green is no more than a safe flex.
Luck is a Lock for the Fantasy Post Season
The Colts quarterback Andrew Luck has scored no fewer than 15 fantasy points (standard scoring) in each of his last three starts, including 36 points last Sunday on the road against the Lions. This week Luck is at home (where he’s been consistent) and he is matching up against the Titans 25th ranked pass defense that allows the 8th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Unless you have better options, Luck should be in your lineup this week.
Tight End Brandon Pettigrew Seeing More Action
The Lions have placed wide receiver Titus Young on injured reserve and with Ryan Broyles also on the IR, tight end Brandon Pettigrew will likely see more action going forward. Currently Pettigrew is second (by far) on the team with 99 targets this season and has been targeted 39 times in his last four games. The Lions face the Packers on Sunday night in what could likely turn out to be a shootout and another busy game for Pettigrew. The Lions tight end is a mid level TE1 this week and should be in your lineup.
Wide Receiver Dez Bryant Rising with the Cream
The Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant has emerged into a bonafide fantasy stud this season. Throughout the course of the season Bryant has had his nice games and solid outings, but in the last three weeks he’s elevated to a new platform among the elite. In his last three starts Bryant has caught 26 passes for 388 yards and five touchdowns; he’s also scored in four straight games. Bryant is a must start and top five WR right in time for the fantasy postseason.
Tight End Brandon Myers is in Play this Week
The Raiders tight end Brandon Myers is coming off a huge game in week 13 versus the Browns; 14 receptions, 130 yards receiving, and a touchdown. Myers has clearly become one of quarterback Carson Palmer’s favorite targets; 51 targets in his last five games. This week Myers will face the Broncos secondary that has proven to be susceptible to opposing tight ends. The Broncos allow the 2nd most fantasy points to tight ends and have surrendered 9 touchdowns. If you’ve been riding the Myers train recently, stay onboard, week 14 should be a good trip.
These are just a few of my takes for week 14.
By David Ortega
Sunday Edition
November 25th, 2012
The Four Horsemen
My week 12 fantasy picks…
Quarterback (Ryan Fitzpatrick)
There’s not a lot being said about the Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but going on the road to play the Colts, he’s got a nice matchup. Fitz will face the Colts 20th ranked pass defense that has allowed 18 touchdowns this season to just four picks. The Colts allow the 12th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Don’t look for Ftiz to throw for a ton, since Spiller and Jackson should be able to carve into the Colts 21st ranked run defense, but the Bills quarterback should be better than effective in the red zone. He’s a good play today if you don’t have better options.
Running Back (CJ Spiller)
The Bills running back CJ Spiller is going to lose a few carries with the return of Fred Jackson today, but that won’t matter. Heading into today’s contest he’s averaging over 100 yards from scrimmage and 14 touches per game. Given the fact Jackson is returning from injury (concussion), the Bills will lean on Spiller and he should deliver solid numbers today. Spiller faces the Colts 21st ranked run defense today that has surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns and they allow the 7th most fantasy points to running backs. Spiller is a must start and top 10 option today.
Wide Receiver (Michael Crabtree)
The Niners wide receiver Michael Crabtree has not had too many big games this season, but he has been on a roll of late finding the end zone in three straight. With the Saints coming to town, Crabtree will get his shot at one of the league’s worst secondary pass defenses; Saints are ranked 31st in the league and allow the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Crabtree is likely no higher than a mid WR2 today, but he has a chance at a big game especially if Kaepernick (starting today) can be as effective as he was last Monday night.
Tight End (Brandon Myers, Oak)
The Raiders are on the road today and running into a hot Bengals team, winners of two straight and 59 points scored in their two wins. This could be one that the Raiders end up playing catch up; enter tight end Brandon Myers. The Raiders are already heaving it up almost 50 times per game over their last three and Myeres is seeing an average of 10 targets per game. Myers is averaging 6.3 receptions, 57 yards, and a touchdown in his last three starts. In a game that is likely to see a lot of passing, Myers is a top 10 option this week and should deliver.
By David Ortega
Saturday Edition
November 24th, 2012
By the Numbers
With the fantasy regular season winding down, it’s time to start looking at your squad for your post season run; do they have what it will take to ride deep into your fantasy playoffs. A good way to measure the value and worthiness of your players are not just performance, but matchups and tendencies will always play a big factor.
At the end of the day, when you are making your decisions who to sit and who to start, one thing you can never get away is breaking down your players by the numbers.
With week 12 under way and the Sunday schedule less than 24 hours away, here are some of my fantasy favorites; By The Numbers…
Quarterback Andy Dalton;
The Bengals are playing host to the Raiders tomorrow and this is one match up I am very fond of; quarterback Andy Dalton versus the Raiders secondary. Dalton is completing nearly 65% of his passes over his last three starts with 7 touchdowns and only one interception; he’s also averaging more than 240 yards passing. This Sunday he faces the Raiders defense that is ranked 24th against the pass (253 yards passing allowed per game), allows the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and has surrendered 20 passing touchdowns. Dalton has a premiere wide out in AJ Green and has hooked up with his favorite receiving target for a score in 9 straight games; Sunday will make it 10 straight and a big day of passing for Dalton. Dalton might not be your regular starter in fantasy, but this is one week you should try to get him in your lineup.
Quarterback Carson Palmer;
The Raiders passing offense led by quarterback Carson Palmer is ranked 7th in the league averaging 288 yards passing per game. Palmer has thrown 40 or more passes in his last three starts and has passed for more than 300 yards in each. Palmer has also thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his past four starts. The Bengals are ranked 14th against the pass and riding a two game winning streak that has put them back into the playoff hunt at 5-5. Playing at home tomorrow they could give some ground in the air to the Raiders in a game that could see the Silver & Black having to work their way out of a big hole; playing from behind could lead to more passing numbers for Palmer. Palmer ranks 6th in the NFL with 3,035 yards passing this season; he’s also thrown 17 touchdowns. He’s a low-end QB option, but worth a start this week in much deeper formats.
Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree;
The Niners passing offense has been limited this season ranked 28th in the league, but could get a lift this Sunday with Colin Kaepernick under center. Kaepernick adds another dimension to the offense that could help open things in the passing game, as it did Monday night against the Bears. Over his last three starts wide receiver Michael Crabtree has managed to find the end zone, with Kaepernick under center (if he starts), Crabtree looks like a good bet to make it four straight. The Niners will face a Saints defense that ranks 31st against the pass and has allowed 21 passing touchdowns. The Saints defense also allows the second highest passer rating to quarterbacks, nearly 64% passes completed, and the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Crabtree is averaging just 6.5 targets per game, but is making the most of them; he’s a mid-level WR3 and worth starting in most formats.
Tight End Brandon Myers;
The Raiders have been throwing the ball quite a bit their last three games, averaging nearly 49 pass attempts and one of the beneficiaries has been tight end Brandon Myers. The Raiders tight end is second on the team with 67 targets this season and is averaging 10 targets in each of the last three games. In his last three starts Myers has totaled 19 receptions, 171 yards receiving, and three touchdowns. With the Raiders on the road, this matchup could be one that sees the team playing catch up and continuing its’ recent trend; this could be good news for fantasy owners. The Bengals defense allows the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends; Myers is a top 10 tight end this week and should be in your lineup.
By David Ortega
