FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Saturday Edition
November 24th, 2012  

By the Numbers

With the fantasy regular season winding down, it’s time to start looking at your squad for your post season run; do they have what it will take to ride deep into your fantasy playoffs. A good way to measure the value and worthiness of your players are not just performance, but matchups and tendencies will always play a big factor.

At the end of the day, when you are making your decisions who to sit and who to start, one thing you can never get away is breaking down your players by the numbers.

With week 12 under way and the Sunday schedule less than 24 hours away, here are some of my fantasy favorites; By The Numbers…

Quarterback Andy Dalton;
The Bengals are playing host to the Raiders tomorrow and this is one match up I am very fond of; quarterback Andy Dalton versus the Raiders secondary. Dalton is completing nearly 65% of his passes over his last three starts with 7 touchdowns and only one interception; he’s also averaging more than 240 yards passing. This Sunday he faces the Raiders defense that is ranked 24th against the pass (253 yards passing allowed per game), allows the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and has surrendered 20 passing touchdowns. Dalton has a premiere wide out in AJ Green and has hooked up with his favorite receiving target for a score in 9 straight games; Sunday will make it 10 straight and a big day of passing for Dalton. Dalton might not be your regular starter in fantasy, but this is one week you  should try to get him in your lineup.

Quarterback Carson Palmer;
The Raiders passing offense led by quarterback Carson Palmer is ranked 7th in the league averaging 288 yards passing per game. Palmer has thrown 40 or more passes in his last three starts and has passed for more than 300 yards in each. Palmer has also thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his past four starts. The Bengals are ranked 14th against the pass and riding a two game winning streak that has put them back into the playoff hunt at 5-5. Playing at home tomorrow they could give some ground in the air to the Raiders in a game that could see the Silver & Black having to work their way out of a big hole; playing from behind could lead to more passing numbers for Palmer. Palmer ranks 6th in the NFL with 3,035 yards passing this season; he’s also thrown 17 touchdowns. He’s a low-end QB option, but worth a start this week in much deeper formats.

Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree;
The Niners passing offense has been limited this season ranked 28th in the league, but could get a lift this Sunday with Colin Kaepernick under center. Kaepernick adds another dimension to the offense that could help open things in the passing game, as it did Monday night against the Bears. Over his last three starts wide receiver Michael Crabtree has managed to find the end zone, with Kaepernick under center (if he starts), Crabtree looks like a good bet to make it four straight. The Niners will face a Saints defense that ranks 31st against the pass and has allowed 21 passing touchdowns. The Saints defense also allows the second highest passer rating to quarterbacks, nearly 64% passes completed, and the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Crabtree is averaging just 6.5 targets per game, but is making the most of them; he’s a mid-level WR3 and worth starting in most formats.

Tight End Brandon Myers;
The Raiders have been throwing the ball quite a bit their last three games, averaging nearly 49 pass attempts and one of the beneficiaries has been tight end Brandon Myers. The Raiders tight end is second on the team with 67 targets this season and is averaging 10 targets in each of the last three games. In his last three starts Myers has totaled 19 receptions, 171 yards receiving, and three touchdowns. With the Raiders on the road, this matchup could be one that sees the team playing catch up and continuing its’ recent trend; this could be good news for fantasy owners. The Bengals defense allows the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends; Myers is a top 10 tight end this week and should be in your lineup.


By David Ortega