FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
October 5th 2019

DFS Saturday

For those of us that can’t get enough of fantasy football in the season long format, there is DFS. Here are a couple of fantasy lineups I am playing in DFS this week. 

Here’s my lineups and my breakdown;

QB-Andy Dalton, CIN: The Bengals offense ranks last in rushing this season and Dalton is averaging over 40 passes per game. This Sunday the Bengals square off with the Cardinals and a defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Bengals offense seems almost exclusively passing dependent; I like Dalton’s prospect for a busy day and he should be a shoe-in for over 40 passes this week.

RB-David Johnson, ARI: I like Johnson’s usage in the passing game this season. Through 4 games DJ .has 28 targets (2nd most for running backs) and he’s involved in the run game with 173 yards rushing. He has a great matchup this week against the Bengals defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including the most receiving yards and 2nd most receptions.

RB-Leonard Fournette, JAX: The Jaguars are led by Fournette and their running game. Through four weeks, Fournette’s 72 carries ranked 6th in the NFL and his 404 yards rushing is third. He should be the focal point on Sunday and add his 23 targets leading to 16 receptions, he should be very busy on Sunday. I like his matchup against a Panthers defense that is allowing nearly 5.0 yards per carry this season.

WR-Chris Godwin, TB: After his big week against the Rams last Sunday, Godwin is off the injury report and geared up for another potential big day against the Saints. Through 4 weeks the Saints defense has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Godwin is currently ranked 3rd in fantasy scoring for receivers, he looks primed to continue his strong play.

WR-Allen Robinson, CHI: Through 4 weeks, A-Rob has yet to find the end-zone, but he has seen no fewer than 7 targets in each of his four games and scored in double-digits (PPR format, full-point). This Sunday, Robinson matches up against a Raiders secondary that has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing wide-outs. He should be a safe play and see plenty of targets.

WR-Courtland Sutton, DEN: The Broncos second year receiver appears to be on the verge of a breakout season, ranking 15th in fantasy scoring among receivers through 4 weeks. His numbers have been solid and his usage has been consistent averaging nearly 8 targets per game; even with less than favorable matchup I like Sutton.

TE-Darren Waller, OAK: The Raiders tight end is seeing a regular diet of targets every Sunday; 37 targets in 2019, ranks 2nd among tight ends. With his 33 receptions (leads all tight ends) he’s a favorite of mine this week against a stout Bears defense. Even with the bad matchup, Waller is such a featured piece in the passing game, he’s a safe play.

Flex-James White, NE: The Patriots running back has been a featured part of the passing game averaging 7 targets per game. He’s also been productive in PPR format, scoring in double digits in all three games he has played this season. I would expect much of the same against the Redskins this week, less about what Washington allows, but more about how he’s used in the offense.

DST-Eagles: The Eagles defense has a great matchup against a Jets offense that allows the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing defenses. With Sam Darnold already ruled OUT for Sunday, this matchup looks pretty good for the hometown team (Eagles).

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
August 24th, 2019

In These Hands We Trust

Let’s begin with this, my numbers are not scientific, nor are they prophetic, they are merely my opinion based on my eye test and last season’s production. With that much said and not trying to say too much, these are my WR rankings for the start of 2019 season.

At the top of the board is Mr. Number one himself, DeAndre Hopkins (MR#1WR). In full PPR Hopkins finished as the number wide receiver last season, after finishing second by a half point in 2017. Hopkins has hands of glue and he is Mister Consistent. He’ll see his normal 170-plus targets and should be back at the top once again.

Right behind Hopkins, filling the number two slot is the Packers Davante Adams (MR#2WR). I actually like Adams a ton; he could easily unseat Hopkins for top billing. Adams will have the luxury of catching passes from a healthy Aaron Rodgers and after coming off a season with career highs across the board (catches, yards, touchdowns, and targets), he’s a shoe-in to post large numbers in 2019.

Yes, the top two receivers have great outlooks for 2019 and both are appropriately ranked, but my number four fantasy receiver, the Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr (MR#4WR) deserves a huge mention here. It just feels like the perfect storm this season for OBJ, who was traded to Cleveland in the offseason. With the gunslinging quarterback Baker Mayfield under center, it feels like OBJ is going to be on Sportscenter a lot this season.

The First 12 pairs of hands
1.DeAndre Hopkins
2.Davante Adams
3.Julio Jones
4.O. Beckham Jr
5.Michael Thomas
6.Tyreek Hill
7.Smith-Schuster
8.Mike Evans
9.Keenan Allen
10.Antonio Brown
11.Adam Thielen
12.T.Y. Hilton

Leading the second set of 12 is the Buccaneers receiver (MR#13WR) Chris Godwin; in Godwin I trust. He’s been one of the talks of the offseason, I’ve been listening to. Godwin had a very nice 2nd season starting 5 games and finishing with 59 receptions, 842 yards receiving, and 7 touchdowns. Now in his third year with the Bucs, this is expected to be his breakout. In four of his last five games in 2018, Godwin had no fewer than six targets per contest with quarterback Jameis Winston under center; the Bucs starting Quarterback for 2019. Godwin is a rising star.

The two Rams receivers, Brandin Cooks (MR#16WR) and Robert Woods (MR#17WR) are basically bookends; you can flip-flop these two. The Rams high-octane offense presents plenty of opportunity for both, even with the return of Cooper Kupp. Last season Woods finished as the 11th scoring fantasy receiver, with Cooks checking in at 13 (full PPR). I believe the return of Kupp will knock these two down slightly, but both are worth drafting as your WR2.

Ankle surgery has me avoiding Bengals receiver A.J. Green (MR#24WR) in my drafts, but he is going to return at some point this season; expected to only miss a few games. If you can get him late, he has the potential of being a solid late grab and could be a difference maker. But he is coming off surgery, which is always risky.

The Second set of hands
13.Chris Godwin
14.Stefon Diggs
15.Julian Edelman
16.Brandin Cooks
17.Robert Woods
18.Jarvis Landry
19.Amari Cooper
20.Cooper Kupp
21.Kenny Golladay
22.Tyler Lockett
23.Calvin Ridley
24.A.J. Green

Some notables that just missed the cut, Bengals receiver Tyler Boyd (MR#25WR), Chargers receiver Mike Williams (MR#26WR) and Eagles receiver Alshon Jeffery (MR#27WR). I really like Williams this season, easily see him cracking the top 24. The same for Boyd, with Green expected to miss time he’ll be the go-to receiver for quarterback Andy Dalton.

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 30th 2017

Monday Evening Edition

Sunday’s Heroes

(Week 8)

It was one of the most exciting games of the season, watching Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson duel with Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. Fortunately for the Seahawks, they had Russell. There’s little doubt, his Sunday performance single-handedly won matchups for fantasy owners and may have scored some cash for DFS players.

Wilson played brilliantly on Sunday completing 26 passes for 452 yards and throwing 4 touchdowns; he also added a couple of scrambles and runs for another 30 yards. It was an epic performance good enough for the win and enough to move Wilson into the No.4 fantasy QB slot.

Not-the-Usual-Suspects

QB-Andy Dalton; the Red Rifle returned to action on Sunday and played very well in the Bengals week 8 win over the Colts. Dalton completed 17 of 29 passes for 243 yards tossing two touchdowns.

RB-Jerick McKinnon; the Vikings running was big on Sunday with 20 touches leading to 50 rushing yards, 6 receptions for 72 yards receiving and a rushing touchdown. McKinnon showed off his versatility and likely earned himself more touches going forward.

RB-Lamar Miller; in a game that was highlighted with the pass (8 passing touchdowns total), Miller flew under the radar posting a solid line; 54 rushing yards, 3 receptions for 19 yards receiving and a receiving touchdown.

WR-Paul Richardson; the Seahawks receiver was golden on Sunday hauling in 6 passes for 105 yards and two scores. This probably came out of nowhere, but Richardson now has 5 receiving touchdowns on the season and should be on fantasy radars.

WR-Robbie Anderson; the Jets receiver was targeted just six times and turned in a line of 6/104/1. It was his best stat line across the board for the season. This was his third straight game scoring in double-digit fantasy points; he should be on fantasy radars throughout the bye weeks.

WR-Jamison Crowder; thus far this season Crowder has been a disappointment, but on Sunday he shined and showed fantasy owners what he can do. The Redskins receiver tallied 9 catches for 123 receiving yards. It was his first double-digit scoring performance (in PPR) and likely not his last.

WR-JuJu Smith-Schuster; the Steelers young receiver was given opportunity and he cashed it in a big way. JuJu caught 7 of 10 targets for 193 yards, including a blistering 97 yard touchdown. It was his first big game of the season and will definitely lead to more opportunities going forward.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end worked his way into the Top-10 for fantasy TEs with his Sunday performance; 12 grabs for 121 receiving yards and a touchdown. Doyle’s workload had been trending in this direction, he’s a safe TE1 going forward.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 27th 2017

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Five 

What to Expect on Sunday Week 8

Could be a Boltz Blitz on Sunday

I know the recent numbers against the Patriots may be saying one thing, but I’ve been watching the Chargers this season and weapons they have. Philip Rivers has been steady this season and with Hunter Henry (No.9 fantasy TE) once again emerging along with wide receiver Keenan Allen the Chargers offense is quite potent. Running back Melvin Gordon (No.4 fantasy RB) is having a strong 2017 campaign, but how he’s doing it is a bit surprising; 29 receptions for 228 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. As well as the Patriots have been playing recently, they’ll have their hands full trying to slow down the Boltz.

Wentz Looking to Soar Higher

After a magnificent Monday night performance against the Redskins, Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is primed and poised to have another big week. Wentz is currently the No.2 fantasy QB and he’s having a terrific season. Last Monday he looked unstoppable and this week he gets the Niners who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks the past four weeks. With Wentz playing at such a high level, everyone on the offense should benefit and be played; Agholor, Ertz, and Smallwood.

Cousins Ready for a Rodeo

And just like that, the Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins has elevated himself to the No.7 fantasy QB this season. After a slow start, Cousins has really come on of late with 11 total touchdowns (10 pass/ 1 run) and three 300-yard passing games in his last 4 starts. He’s really been playing well for fantasy owners scoring better than 20 fantasy points in four straight starts. Cousins faces the Cowboys have allowed over 20 fantasy points to the following quarterbacks; Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, and Trevor Siemian. I like Cousins chances at a big Sunday.

And His Name is Dalton

It has not been the best year for Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (No.27 fantasy QB), but some of that could change on Sunday. Dalton and company will play host to the Colts this week and face a defense that has allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including 321 passing yards per game with 6 touchdowns. Wide receiver AJ Green could be looking at a big day as well matched up against a secondary that has allowed the most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.

Wham, Bam, Time for Cam

The Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (No.8 fantasy QB) has been a little up and down this season. He’s coming off a poor performance last week against the Bears passing for just 211 yards and throwing two picks. This should be his up week with a favorable matchup on Sunday against the Buccaneers who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Not only should Cam be looking at a good day on Sunday, but owners should be looking to play both wide receivers Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess; the Bucs allow the 2nd most fantasy points and receptions to opposing wide receivers.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 27th 2017

Wednesday Late Night Edition

What I Learned from Week 3

(Quick Takes)

It’s late Wednesday night, the morning will come early tomorrow, so I am not going to spend too much time on my rants here, but here’s what I learned from last week;

Too early to anoint Siemian! Yup, first road test was a fail. Maybe it wasn’t a complete failure, but the inability to put the ball in the endzone (3 FGs last week) won’t get it done.

Broncos defense has some holes. After their two week scintillating start, the defense comes back to earth getting toasted by, of all quarterback Tyrod Taylor. And I’m not knocking Taylor, actually thought his mobility would play into the Broncos pass rush, wrong. Taylor’s got a lot more than that.

Brady-to-Cooks, dinner is served! Fantasy owners finally got a taste at what could be. Now will they see what will be going forward. Well right now the Pats defense is not going to stop anyone, so maybe we will.

Patriots are powered by the Pass. After three weeks fantasy owners can see how this engine runs in New England. Brady may have a lot of miles on his arm, but that baby is still running smooth. Play away.

Is Jaguars defense for real? This may be a tough question to answer given the offenses they’ve had to face in the early going. Good news is, we won’t have to answer this week either. Jags will face Jets on Sunday, so I feel good about their chances with continued success.

Keenum equipped to handle reins. Whether he remains the starter for the long term (see Bradford’s health) or the short term, what we’ve seen over the past two weeks should give fantasy owners plenty of confidence to roll with their studs (Diggs, Cook, Thielen). Maybe this week will be TE Rudolph’s turn.

Falcons defense could be a problem. Thus far the Falcons are undefeated, but no thanks to their average defense (ranked 17th in total yards). The Falcons have dodged bullets in week one to Chicago and last week against the Lions. Their 3-0 record could be misleading.

Bucs defense needs work. After a strong opening week performance, the Bucs defense got a rude awakening courtesy of Keenum and the Vikings. The Bucs play in a tough division loaded with some pretty good arms and receivers. Defense needs work, fast!

Colts a work in progress. Well surprise, surprise. The Colts proved Any Given Sunday is true. We won’t get ahead of ourselves here. They are a work in progress, but after quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s impressive week 3 play there is light at the end of the tunnel. And quarterback Andrew Luck could be back in a few weeks.

Manning and group finally show up. It tooks three weeks for the offense to finally click, but then again they only managed 24 points and still lost. Eli Manning and the G-men haven’t got it all figured out yet, but last week certainly looked like they got the passing game somewhat figured out. Now work on the run.

Steel Curtain made of aluminum. Week 3 was not an impressive day for the Steelers defense. Maybe the team left them back in the tunnel; they didn’t know the game started since they missed the national anthem. Either way, 220 yards rushing allowed, that curtain couldn’t have been made out of steel.

Panthers offense in trouble? This was not big test, but it was not a good sign for Cam and company to struggle against a Saints defense that had been treated like a doormat for the two previous weeks. You have to ask, is there something wrong with Cam? How do the Panthers play so poorly at home against the Saints. Hmmm?

Brees not done yet. Just when it looks like the Saints were toast, Brees and the boys show they still have a lot of fight left. The Saints marched into Carolina and strolled right out with an easy win. They get the Dolphins next in London looking to make it two in a row.

The Dalton Gang shows heart. And his name is Dalton. That never gets old. Andy Dalton and company put up the good fight in week 3, but came up short. It’s a long season and heart only gets you so far. If the Bengals don’t get a W real quick, this season is going to be even longer.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 14th 2017

Thursday Edition

My Thursday Night Takes

The Houston Texans will travel to Cincinnati tonight in our Weekly Thursday Night Matchup, and unfortunately for those fans that enjoy lots of points this affair has the makings of an ugly matchup and not a lot of points. That being said, there’s still going to be some fantasy relevance, whether you play or avoid certain play.

Here are some of my Thursday night takes for fantasy owners;

The Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson is expected to start. Its unlikely fantasy owners even drafted Watson this season, except for maybe Dynasty leagues, but his matchup this week has the potential of being a train wreck. He’s only played quarterback for a half in the NFL and he’s gets his first start on the road and a short week; nuff said.

Although his quarterback may struggle tremendously tonight, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is almost assured to see a plethora of targets. Even with 16 targets in week one Hopkins was not able to generate much of a big game, but his 4th quarter score was able to salvage the day. Fantasy owners may be able to count on the same happening here tonight, especially if the Bengals get up big.

One area of success the Texans offense may be able to rely on tonight, is the running game led by running back Lamar Miller. The Bengals defense did not struggle too poorly in week one allowing 157 yards on the ground; they held Ravens ball carriers to less than 4 yards per carry on 42 attempts. This one could be close throughout providing Miller plenty of opportunity to accumulate the carries; Miller’s got a good shot at 20 or so carries and 100 yards.

Perhaps the favorite play tonight will be the Bengals Defense. The team is coming off an embarrassing week one loss and with a home game tonight and the prospects of facing a rookie quarterback the thinking could be someone ring the dinner bell. Bengals D should be a DFS streaming favorite this week.

And his name is Dalton; quote from the movie Roadhouse. Unfortunately quarterback Andy Dalton is not our hero, as was displayed in week one. Dalton has a tendency to be like that, cold and hot, so tonight at home could be quite the opposite from last Sunday. I’m not gambling any farms away on this, Dalton should be decent against the Texans, but hardly worth starting.

Fortunately for wide receiver AJ Green, a good game for Dalton only means good things for Green. In week one AJ was targeted 10 times finishing 5/74, he’s going to be featured heavily once again. The Texans do have good corners so owners should not expect a huge game; more in the line with week one numbers, but maybe add a score.

I’m not going to bank on a bounce back game for tight end Tyler Eifert who was targeted just once in week one. He’ll be a part of the passing game plan, but may only put up modest numbers. I, however think he gets a couple of looks in the red-zone tonight and may be able to cash one in. He’s a tough play, especially in DFS.

The area of confusion fantasy owners may have trouble sorting through for tonight’s matchup is the Bengals backfield; running backs Jeremy Hill, Giovanni Bernard, and (rookie) Joe Mixon. There’s no easy read here where the team might commit, but of the three Giovanni looked like the best in week one. Hill and Mixon will get looks on the ground, but if you have to play any of the three I am leaning with Bernard because of his pass catching prowess.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

WEEK 5: BUYING AND SELLING

October 11th, 2015
Sunday (NFL Week 5)

Week 5: Buying and Selling

Four weeks into the season should be plenty of sample size to figure a few things out for your Sunday fantasy football lineup, but that doesn't mean you should rest on your laurels.

You did a pretty good job drafting this year and after four weeks you're sitting in a pretty good spot, so now's the time to use your fantasy savvy to make a few tweaks and improve your championship run.

Through the first four weeks we've seen enough to know when it's time to let someone go and move on and when it's time to find value.

These are my week 5 buys and sells;

I am buying into Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, 1,187 yards passing and 9 touchdowns are enough for me to believe he's a reliable play week-in and week-out. Not only is the Red Rifle producing on the offensive side, but he's only thrown one interception in 116 attempts this season. Today may be a stiff test at home against the Seahawks, but I still believe Dalton finishes as a QB1 today.

I am also buying into running back Dion Lewis of the Patriots. Remember a running back by the name of Shane Vereen. Lewis has inherited that role as the teams lead back in the passing game and averaging 10 carries per game through the teams first three games is a great indicator he's a safe weekly play. He's also dominating the backfield with 154 offensive snaps this season, putting him on the field two-thirds of the time. Today's matchup against the Cowboys defense that allow the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs should be a great opportunity for Lewis to produce; the Cowboys have also surrendered the (tied for) third-most receptions to opposing backs.

 A couple of names that I am selling after four weeks; Bears wide reciever Alshon Jeffery (questionable today and not expected to play) and and Broncos running back CJ Anderson (just not producing).

You probably used a high pick to select Jeffery, so you don't want to give him away, but it's time to move on. Jeffery was a disappointment last season and without a top receiving threat opposite him (when he returns) you are probably not going to get back what you invested; it's time to move-on and get what you can.

Anderson is a little different. Again owners probably bought high on him and again, you need to get some return. Right now back-up running back Ronnie Hillman clearly looks like the better back and better fit for the Broncos offense. Anderson is not going to reside on the bench, he's still figure in the mix, but how long can you hang on with performances of 29, 27, 18, and 43 yards rushing? He is still relevant, so you should be able to get some return on him, but move him now before his value bottoms out.

Some plays I will be leaning on this week, start;

Justin Forsett vs the Browns D
Alfred Morris vs the Falcons D
Kendall Wright vs the Bills D
Jordan Matthew vs the Saints D

And yes I am playing Anthony Dixon versus the Titans with no Karlos Williams or LeSean McCoy.

Just my take for week 5.

~David G

SUNDAY'S FANTASY FAVES

October 3rd, 2015
Saturday

Week 4: Sunday's Fantasy Faves

After watching that scintillating performance on Monday night by the Packers quarterback, Aaron Rodgers how can you not like the Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton at home this week against the Chiefs secondary. Now we must temper our expectations a bit, since Andy is no Aaron, but with a full compliment of weapons and as well as the Red Rifle has been tossing the pigskin this season (8 passing touchdowns, 866 yards passing); he's a Sunday favorite.

This Sunday will be a good road test for the Raiders young quarterback Derek Carr, although some may not consider the Bears secondary (ranked 5th most points allowed versus opposing QB) a huge test. Anytime you have to travel across the country back east and play an early game, on the road, in front of a hostile crowd, in the windy city, you will be tested. Fortunately for the 2nd year QB, he'll be bringing some nice weapons with him. With 5 passing touchdowns and 726 yards passing Carr is among the league leaders and facing the Bears who have allowed 8 passing touchdowns (2nd most) this season he's looking to enrich his stats for 2015. Carr is definitely a Sunday favorite.

Looking at some of the backfields on Sunday, I am enamored with running back Karlos Williams of the Bills. He's been a beast for fantasy owners scoring on all three Sundays thus far and tomorrow could be four against the Giants run defense (ranked 10th most fantasy points allowed versus RB). With starter LeSean McCoy sidelined (ruled OUT for Sunday), Williams should see plenty of work. The Giants have been decent agains the run, but Williams with 186 yards rushing this season is averaging more than 7 yards per carry and has three rushing touchdowns; he's my Sunday favorite.

A second ball carrier I like is the Super Charger running back Melvin Gordon. The kid runs hard and does not shy away from contact. He will get a crack at the Browns run defense that allows the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Gordon has yet to really get the ground game going in San Diego averaging just over 63 yards per game and 4.3 yards per tote, but the Browns are giving up more than 150 yards per game (and better than 5 yards a carry). Gordon has yet to crack the end zone this season, but all could change tomorrow. He's another Sunday favorite.

A couple of other names I like tomorrow because of the matchup and trends; the Packers rookie receiver Ty Montgomery could get plenty of looks tomorrow against a shaky Niners secondary with wideout Davante Adams out. The Bills young quarterback Tyrod Taylor has been strong through three weeks and will face the leagues secondary that has allowed the most passing yards. Let's not forget Carr's newest favorite target and Raiders rookie, wide receiver Amari Cooper; the kid has been on fire with 15 receptions and 243 receiving yards with a score the past two weeks. And one more for the road, how about the Bengals wide receiver Marvin Jones. Quietly Jones has grabbed 7 passes for 142 yards and two scores the past two Sundays and tomorrow he gets the Chiefs secondary (9 touchdowns allowed to opposing receivers).

These are some of my favorites.

That's my take.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday morning Edition

September 7th, 2014 

David’s Daily Digest

SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Numbers to help the Cause

With the Week 1 Sunday kickoff just hours away, fantasy owners are scrambling to make those last minutes tweaks to their lineups. If you are like me, I am always looking for data and numbers to help me find the best plays for Sunday.

Here are some of the numbers you should know for week 1;

Even though the Rob Ryan Saints defense only allowed the 5^th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has had success in the past throwing the ball. In 4 of his last 6 starts versus the Saints Ryan has thrown for more than 300 yards. In his one game last season against the Saints when he had all of his weapons Ryan also completed 65 percent of his passes and threw two touchdowns.

Facing the Ravens defense at home today, Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton may be one to avoid. In his two starts last season against Baltimore Dalton has been picked off seven times, including four at home in the finale.

The Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer was coming off the board as a mid QB-2 in most drafts and even later in some. He’s been a little overlooked, but in 2013 in the second half of the season Palmer showed some glimmer. In his last 8 starts he completed over 60 percent of his passes in five of those, throwing multiple touchdowns in 5 of those contests as well. Palmers’ numbers down the stretch were not out of this world, but they should not be overlooked; 295 yards passing per game, 14 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Monday night he’ll face the Chargers secondary that allowed the 8^th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

The Bills will use a committee of both running back CJ Spiller and running back Fred Jackson (both were top 30 running backs in fantasy last season). Even with a lesser experienced quarterback (E.J. Manuel) under center, both should find success on the ground facing the Bears defense today. Last season Chicago allowed the second most fantasy points to running backs, including 19 rushing touchdowns, 2^nd most. Both Spiller and Jackson should be safe plays today.

There’s been little talk about Texans running back Arian Foster, and more importantly no talk about any injuries. A healthy Foster facing a suspect Redskins run defense could spell for a big day. Foster has the talent to blow up and with the Redskins allowing the 4^th most fantasy points to opposing running backs and 20 rushing touchdowns (most in the league) last season, he could be fantasy gold.

Just some numbers to know for Sunday week 1.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: BY THE NUMBERS

Saturday Edition
November 24th, 2012  

By the Numbers

With the fantasy regular season winding down, it’s time to start looking at your squad for your post season run; do they have what it will take to ride deep into your fantasy playoffs. A good way to measure the value and worthiness of your players are not just performance, but matchups and tendencies will always play a big factor.

At the end of the day, when you are making your decisions who to sit and who to start, one thing you can never get away is breaking down your players by the numbers.

With week 12 under way and the Sunday schedule less than 24 hours away, here are some of my fantasy favorites; By The Numbers…

Quarterback Andy Dalton;
The Bengals are playing host to the Raiders tomorrow and this is one match up I am very fond of; quarterback Andy Dalton versus the Raiders secondary. Dalton is completing nearly 65% of his passes over his last three starts with 7 touchdowns and only one interception; he’s also averaging more than 240 yards passing. This Sunday he faces the Raiders defense that is ranked 24th against the pass (253 yards passing allowed per game), allows the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and has surrendered 20 passing touchdowns. Dalton has a premiere wide out in AJ Green and has hooked up with his favorite receiving target for a score in 9 straight games; Sunday will make it 10 straight and a big day of passing for Dalton. Dalton might not be your regular starter in fantasy, but this is one week you  should try to get him in your lineup.

Quarterback Carson Palmer;
The Raiders passing offense led by quarterback Carson Palmer is ranked 7th in the league averaging 288 yards passing per game. Palmer has thrown 40 or more passes in his last three starts and has passed for more than 300 yards in each. Palmer has also thrown at least two touchdowns in each of his past four starts. The Bengals are ranked 14th against the pass and riding a two game winning streak that has put them back into the playoff hunt at 5-5. Playing at home tomorrow they could give some ground in the air to the Raiders in a game that could see the Silver & Black having to work their way out of a big hole; playing from behind could lead to more passing numbers for Palmer. Palmer ranks 6th in the NFL with 3,035 yards passing this season; he’s also thrown 17 touchdowns. He’s a low-end QB option, but worth a start this week in much deeper formats.

Wide Receiver Michael Crabtree;
The Niners passing offense has been limited this season ranked 28th in the league, but could get a lift this Sunday with Colin Kaepernick under center. Kaepernick adds another dimension to the offense that could help open things in the passing game, as it did Monday night against the Bears. Over his last three starts wide receiver Michael Crabtree has managed to find the end zone, with Kaepernick under center (if he starts), Crabtree looks like a good bet to make it four straight. The Niners will face a Saints defense that ranks 31st against the pass and has allowed 21 passing touchdowns. The Saints defense also allows the second highest passer rating to quarterbacks, nearly 64% passes completed, and the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Crabtree is averaging just 6.5 targets per game, but is making the most of them; he’s a mid-level WR3 and worth starting in most formats.

Tight End Brandon Myers;
The Raiders have been throwing the ball quite a bit their last three games, averaging nearly 49 pass attempts and one of the beneficiaries has been tight end Brandon Myers. The Raiders tight end is second on the team with 67 targets this season and is averaging 10 targets in each of the last three games. In his last three starts Myers has totaled 19 receptions, 171 yards receiving, and three touchdowns. With the Raiders on the road, this matchup could be one that sees the team playing catch up and continuing its’ recent trend; this could be good news for fantasy owners. The Bengals defense allows the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends; Myers is a top 10 tight end this week and should be in your lineup.


By David Ortega