FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 1st, 2011 Saturday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Austin close, but will miss Sunday
We already knew that Austin would be sitting this Sunday against the Lions, but its good news for fantasy owners to hear that he is getting close. Austin said he could play in week 5, if the Cowboys had a game. The bad news with him sitting, the boys will be short-handed again and could see a lot of the same (as we saw on Monday night) from their make-shift receiving corp; not good for quarterback Tony Romo fantasy owners.

Vick expecting to Play on Sunday
The Eagles dynamic quarterback announced earlier this week he will be on the playing field this Sunday despite all of his recent injuries; should fantasy owners be worried? The Niners are stingy against the run this season, so the Eagles will have to throw, but fortunately for Vick fantasy owners they do not do a great job at getting after the quarterback (they are OK). Also, an anemic 49er offense will allow the Vick and the Eagles to be patient with the run and pass.

Newton coming down to Earth?
It’s funny, after his astronomical start this season, the prospects of Cam Newton continuing his electrifying play look more and more difficult with each week. After his struggles last week (even though the Panthers won) against the Jaguars last Sunday, he will be facing a tough Bears defense (8 sacks this season) that could present a lot of problems for him in the pocket. With players like Urlacher and Briggs bringing the heat, Newton could be looking at a long day; owners may want to reconsider their options.

McNabb looking to get out of the Gate
The Vikings are 0-3 and quarterback Donovan McNabb has only thrown two touchdown passes in his three starts. If things don’t turn around soon for McNabb, he will soon find himself holding a clip-board on the sideline. Fortunately for McNabb and the Vikings they will get the Chiefs (ranked 30th against the pass) defense on Sunday, that have allowed 13 pass plays of 20 yards or more. This won’t guarantee a huge fantasy day for McNabb (look for other options), but success in the air could compliment a big day from the Vikings ground game.

Starks gearing up to start against the Broncos.
The Packers will be without running back Ryan Grant on Sunday when they host Denver, but they will have James Starks who will likely be the featured back in their ground game. Before fantasy owners jump on board the Starks bandwagon, they had better take a look at last Sunday’s matchup between the Broncos and Titans; CJ2K was limited to only 21 yards on 13 carries. Johnson may be feeling the hangover from his hold-out, but then Starks is no CJ2K. Starks should still produce decent numbers (65-75 yards on the ground), but if you are looking for a big game, you might want to look elsewhere.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: TARGET PRACTICE

September 28th, 2011, Wednesday

Fantasy Football

Target Practice

In These Hands We Trust

In week 3 there were no hands better than the pair that comes with Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker. Against the Bills, Welker was targeted a league high 20 times in week 3 finishing the game with 16 catches and over 200 yards receiving. While Welker was raking in passes like crazy, Roddy White (Falcons) and Anquan Boldin (Ravens) were seeing many chances as well, but with a lot less success.

White only corralled 9 balls on 17 tries against the Buccaneers, while Boldin was less successful snagging only 7 of 14. The good news for owners, these two look like they have the confidence of their quarterbacks and should be strong candidates to rebound in week 4 with plenty more chances.

A couple of other receivers that have the confidence of their quarterbacks and could quickly become fantasy football household names include wide receiver Nate Washington (Titans), David Nelson (Bills), and Brandon Pettigrew (Lions).

Through the first three weeks of the season Washington (27 targets) and Nelson (27 targets) both rank in the Top 20. Pettigrew is not far off ranking fourth among tight ends with 22 targets. After last weeks’ breakout game against the Vikings with 11 receptions and 112 yards receiving, Pettigrew is quickly becoming a favorite of (Matthew) Stafford.

Top 10 in week 3

1. Wes Welker, Patriots (20 targets)
2. Roddy White, Falcons (17 targets)
3. Anquan Boldin, Ravens (14 targets)
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts (13 targets)
5. Andre Caldwell, Bengals (12 targets)
6. Eric Decker, Broncos (12 targets)
7. Andre Johnson, Texans (12 targets)
8. Michael Jenkins, Vikings (11 targets)
9. Calvin Johnson, Lions (11 targets)
10. 6 players tied at 10 targets

Radar Watch

If the Broncos can quarterback Kyle Orton to look downfield more, wide receiver Eric Decker could suddenly become a fantasy favorite. Decker was among the leaders in week 3 with 12 targets, but the results were only 7 catches for 48 yards. Like Decker, wide receiver Pierre Garcon is going to need more help from the quarterback position if he is going to improve on his 10 targets from week 3. Both look like diamonds in the rough just waiting to shine.

Tight end Todd Heap is healthy this season and was finally utilized a little more extensively in week 3 seeing 10 balls (targets) in his direction. Heap has shown lots of ability in the past, if quarterback Kevin Kolb can make more of an effort to get his tight end involved, Heap has the potential of being a fantasy gem going forward.

One of my waiver wire mentions this week is wide receiver Michael Jenkins (Vikings). He’s not going to suddenly break out of the gate in week 4, but his 17 targets are good indicator he’s one of McNabb’s favorite and will see a steady stream of passes in his direction every week.

My last mention here is Lions rookie wide receiver Titus Young. Last week he broke out with a nice 5 catch, 89-yard performance on seven targets. This week his 4 catches and 51 yards receiving might suggest a slight regression, but to the contrary Young was targeted eight times. As long as Young continues to see his share of throws, he’s going to get better; much better.

Top 10 through week 3 (unofficial)

1. Wes Welker, Patriots (43 targets)
2. Roddy White, Falcons (34 targets)
3. Andre Johnson, Texans (32 targets)
4. Reggie Wayne, Colts (32 targets)
5. Jason Witten, Cowboys (32 targets)
6. Brandon Marshall, Dolphins (31 targets)
7. Steve Smith, Panthers (31 targets)
8. Steve Johnson, Bills (30 targets)
9. Mike Thomas, Jaguars (30 targets)
10. Anquan Boldin, Ravens (28 targets)
11. Calvin Johnson, Lions (28 targets)
12. Darren Sproles, Saints (28 targets)

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

September 28th, 2011, Wednesday

Watercooler Chat

Waiver Wire

The wide receiver position in fantasy leagues does not appear to be exceptionally deep this season, so if you are in search of help you may have to look high and low. Normally when looking high you might find depth with teams like the Saints and Patriots, but with both turning to their tight ends more in 2011, searching low may be the way to go.

One of the low places to look could be in Seattle where the Seahawks saw the return of their premiere wide out Sidney Rice. There is some concern at the quarterback position for fantasy owners with (Tarvaris) Jackson under center, but in Rice’s first game back he was targeted 10 times and caught eight passes for over 100 yards. Remember Jackson and Rice have some familiarity playing together in Minnesota and tat already appears to be apparent with two connecting often on Sunday. Rice may struggle to turn in those big games from week to week, but he looks to be a safe WR3 or flex with plenty of upside.

Another struggling passing game where owners may find some light could be in Minnesota with wide receiver Michael Jenkins. The former Falcon was never the go-to receiver, but he is showing lots of potential with the Vikings and is quickly becoming (Donovan) McNabb’s favorite target (17 targets this season ties for team lead). Surprisingly Jenkins is showing sure hands this season nabbing 15 of those targets and with his great speed he has big play capability. He’s a fantasy diamond in the rough, but if you are desperate for help he’s a low risk, high reward as a WR3 or flex play.

“Take of the Week”

There’s no question that if he’s available on the waiver wire, one of this weeks’ best take (out) is Packers running back James Starks. After a disappointing performance last Sunday against the Bears, Starks could be in line for a prime start against the Bronco’s shaky defense. The latest news reports are indicating running back Ryan Grant (bruised kidney) could miss week 4, if he misses that could open the door to a big game for Starks.


Watch List

With the loss of stud receiver Kenny Britt, the Titans have a big void to fill in their passing attack. This week the time inked a deal with former Rams receiver Donnie Avery. Now I am not saying Avery is the answer and will fill that void, but if Avery is healed from his past knee injuries, once he returns to football shape he could give the Titan’s their big-playmaker and deep threat they lost with Britt’s injury. And with a savvy veteran like (Matt) Hasselbeck under center, Avery’s fantasy status could also benefit.

Time for the ”dump”

The Raiders are playing good football at the moment, showing lots of balance with a strong ground game and steady passing attack. With all that is going well in Oakland, there seems to be a missing component or contributor to the success; wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. DHB has hardly been in the mix and even with all the great speed he possesses, he just can’t seem to get out of the starting gate. In three weeks DHB has only caught five passes and was only targeted three times last Sunday (finished with one catch). As the Raiders continue to roll and get better, the more likely it appears DHB will be left behind. If you invested any confidence in Heyward-Bey this summer, now may be the time to part ways and look elsewhere for help at receiver.

Just My take.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 27th, 2011 Tuesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Stafford Closing the Gap to the Top Ranks
The 2011 season has been great for Lion’s quarterback Matthew Stafford. Through the first three weeks he is healthy and he is playing lights out. Stafford is averaging more than 325 yards passing per game and has already thrown 9 touchdowns completing 66.9 percent of his passes. His passer rating of 110.7 ranks third, just behind Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. As the season moves on and Stafford continues his brilliant play, the gap between he and the elite continues to shrink.

Pettigrew Breaks Out Against Vikes
The Lions third year tight end Brandon Pettigrew could be getting his coming out party just started with a strong showing in week 3 against the Vikes. Pettigrew was targeted 13 times on Sunday collecting 11 balls for 112 yards, both season and career highs. With Stafford now healthy, at 6’-5” and 265-lbs Pettigrew could continue to see more success in the coming weeks. His 22 targets this season indicate he’s a rising TE1 in fantasy leagues.

Rookie Smith Shows Explosion
In his first NFL start rookie wide receiver Torrey Smith came out with more than just a bang, he exploded on Sunday against the Rams with some prolific numbers. On eight targets Smith grabbed five balls for 152 yards, including three electrifying scores. Smith gives the Ravens their much needed deep threat and if he can continue to show great chemistry with his quarterback, don’t expect to see him sit much even when (Lee) Evans returns. It’s too early to make any bold predictions or sudden grabs off the waiver wire, but his presence and strong play could certainly open things up for (Anquan) Boldin on the other side.

Felix the Cat Opens his Bag of Tricks
Just when the Cowboys needed it most, running back Felix Jones reached deep into his bag of tricks and pulled out a big game on the ground. Jones scampered his way to 115, courtesy of a couple of nice big runs against the Redskins on Monday night. It was the first sign of a ground attack for the Cowboys this season and Jones best game by far. Jones showed great burst and breakaway speed, but also some grit not going down on the first contact. He’s a little banged up right now (shoulder), but when healthy this kid can run with the big dogs.

Sidney Rice finds a pulse against the Cardinals
The Seahawks passing game has seeming been in hibernation or on life–support so far this season, but the return of wide receiver Sidney Rice on Sunday may have just breathed a little life into it. Rice, in his first game this season was targeted 10 times catching 8 passes for 109 yards. It’s too soon to be expecting big things from Rice, but it’s a good sign for fantasy owners to see Rice and (Tarvaris) Jackson connecting often.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY'S HEROES

September 27th, 2011, Tuesday

Sunday’s Heroes (Week 3)

Who is Making Fantasy Headlines in 2011
[Points based on standard scoring]

JOE FLACCO CATCHES FIRE IN WEEK 3
The Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco blew up in week 3 against the Rams passing for nearly 400 yards, while completing 27 passes and throwing three touchdowns. All three of his scores went to rookie wide receiver Torrey Smith, who Flacco showed great chemistry with. Flacco has been up and down so far this season, but with Smith emerging, we could see Joe playing more like he did on Sunday. He’s still a QB2 for now, but looks to be a great bye week filler.
(31 fantasy points)

SCHAUB COMES ALIVE IN LOSS
It took three weeks, but finally the Texans quarterback Matt Schaub comes alive and tallies a big number on Sunday. For fantasy owners, it’s been what we have been waiting for as Schaub passes for 373 yards and throws three touchdowns in a loss to the Saints. The Texans appear to be a more balance team this season, but will still need the occasional big game from Schaub; it’s nice to see he has it. His line on Sunday included 22 of 39 passing and a passer rating of 103.9. Going forward fantasy owners can expect similar Sundays, although there may be a few when he is more efficient with less yardage. He’s a low end QB1, but a good start week to week.
(30 fantasy points)

LESEAN IS THE REAL MCCOY
The Eagles running back LeSean McCoy is making his bid to be considered one of the top fantasy running backs in the 2011 season. On Sunday against the Giants McCoy added another 128 yards rushing (345 on the season ranks second in the NFL) and his 4th rushing touchdown this season. McCoy also has 9 receptions this season, including one for a touchdown giving him five total scores for 2011. With a hefty 6.1 yards per carry average McCoy is as good as any top fantasy back in the league right now; he’s a must-start and a keeper.
(19 fantasy points)

RUN DMC BUSTS A MOVE IN WEEK 3
The Raiders are playing well right now and no one can argue that Raider running back Darren McFadden is playing best of all. After his outstanding week 3 performance rushing for 171 yards and scoring twice, Run DMC leads the NFL with 393 yards on the ground and already has three trips to pay-dirt. DMC is averaging 24 touches per game, as long as this kid can hold up, he’s money baby!
(29 fantasy points)

WELKER SHOWS HIS HOT HAND
Is anyone surprised by how good this guy is? We shouldn’t be, since we have seen him doing it for a couple of seasons, but what is surprising is how defenses just can’t find a way to slow down Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker. Last Sunday against the Bills Welker nabbed 16 balls for 217 yards and two scores. He now leads the NFL with 31 receptions and has scored four times this season. Did anyone forget that he caught a league high 123 passes in 2009 and has three consecutive seasons with more than 100 catches. He’s healthy now and is an every-week start, period!
(33 fantasy points)

JULIO JONES IGNITES AGAINST THE BUCS
The Falcons rookie wide out Julio Jones finally ruffled his feathers some last Sunday against the Buccaneers and caught flight for 115 yards in the air off of six grabs. It was Jones first big productive game this season, coming off of seven targets. With his blazing speed Jones will remain the deep threat and likely be a hit and miss from week to week. With his big play potential he’s an attractive WR3 or flex play for now.
(11 fantasy points)

The IDP Fantasy Newsmakers…

OLD DAWG STILL HAS PLENTY OF TRICKS
The Ravens 3-year old linebacker Ray Lewis shows no slowing down with another stellar effort on Sunday against the Rams. Lewis recorded another 10 tackles, his fist sack of the season, and a forced fumble. He continues to defy the odds and play like an LB1 fantasy IDP.

SEAN LEE IS PLAYING LIKE A FREAK
The Cowboys middle linebacker Sean Lee has been electrifying this season on the defensive side of the ball. On Monday night, Lee was all over the field recording 8 total tackles, intercepting a pass, and recovering the game winning fumble. Lee has a nose for the ball and great instinct; he’s an outstanding IDP play and must-start every week.

JARED ALLEN GOES QB HUNTING
The Vikings defensive lineman is on a tear this season and last Sunday against the Lions, he was a beast recording three sacks. Allen also added a forced fumble for good measure in the week 3 matchup against the Lions. Allen is among the leaders this season with 4.5 sacks and figures to be in the market to add to his total every Sunday.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY GAMETIME

September 25th, 2011 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

Fantasy owners have had two exciting weekends of football action and plenty to cheer about with record setting passing numbers being set in consecutive weeks. With such prospects week three is promising to be every bit as exciting as its predecessors. Cam Newton at home today against Jacksonville, a showdown between Tom Brady (Patriots) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bills), and Matt Schaub (Texans) squaring off with Drew Brees (Saints) highlight today’s ledger of games.

Perhaps the biggest game on the schedule today is not the rematch of the Eagles and the Giants, with the G-men looking for revenge after last season’s collapse in week 15 (although this will be a good one), but the divisional matchup between the Bears and Packers. Last season these two met in the NFC championship with the Packers moving on to the Big Dance and again this season these two meet with two teams heading in apparent opposite directions. The Packers are off to a 2-0 start and looking strong to defend their Super Bowl title, while the Bears are still reeling from their debacle last week at the hands of the Saints.

It’s just one loss (to the Saints) for the defending NFC North champs, but with quarterback Jay Cutler having already hit the turf 11 times this season (most sacks in the league) he could be facing a very long day against the Packers defense (7 sacks this season). After their impressive win over the Falcons in week one, back to back losses now would soon put a halt to their momentum and really have the Bears scrambling to right what would become a slowly sinking ship. If the Bears are going to get back on track in a hurry, they will need to protect Cutler and may have to call on Matt Forte to grind out some yardage on the ground to do so.

Last season against the Packers in their first meeting, Forte only ran for 29 yards (at home) and was limited to just 13 touches. He was much more effective in the second much rushing for 91 yards on 15 carries and catching 8 balls for another 60 yards. Expect to see the Bears try and get Forte involved early and often on the ground and in the short passing game; he could be very productive today, but will have to earn his keep.


Watch-list

With the likelihood of running back Arian Foster sitting, it looks like Ben Tate will not only get the start, but see a hefty work load today against the Saints. Tate has run well in two weeks this season and should see his success continue on the ground today against a Saints run defense that is allowing over four yards per carry. The key will be for the Texans to keep this one close, so they can be patient on the ground and feed Tate.

Keep your eye on the Jaguars ground attack led by running back Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jags travel to Carolina today and will face a run defense that is getting chewed up at nearly five yards per clip. Jones-Drew has yet to hit the century mark in a game this season, but today could be his first against the Panthers.


The Steelers will get the Colts in the Sunday night capper and expect the men of steel to get back to basics and back to the ground and pound. The Colts are really struggling on offense, so Big Ben and company will get plenty of opportunities and possessions to move the ball with running back Rashard Mendenhall. I would expect Mendenhall to tote the rock at least 20 times today and facing the Colts 29th ranked run defense he should easily improve his 3.6 yards per carry average.

After last week’s flub at the hands of the Titans, expect the Ravens to return to their old bully selves and get back to some smash mouth today against the Rams. Running back Ray Rice only carried the ball 13 times last week in the loss, but could see nearly double today against the league’s worst run defense (Rams). The Rams have allowed 355 yards on the ground in two games and could be in for a long day trying to slow down Rice and company.

Today’s Fantasy notes:

Today’s 20 Fantasy Running Backs (Week 3)

1. Ray Rice (Ravens)
2. Michael Turner (Falcons)
3. Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers)
4. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars)
5. Adrian Peterson (Vikings)
6. Chris Johnson (Titans)
7. LeSean McCoy (Eagles)
8. Fred Jackson (Bills)
9. Matt Forte (Bears)
10. Peyton Hillis (Browns)
11. Ben Tate (Texans)
12. Jahvid Best (Lions)
13. Shonn Greene (Jets)
14. Frank Gore (49ers)
15. Darren McFadden (Raiders)
16. Daniel Thomas (Dolphins)
17. LeGarrette Blount (Buccaneers)
18. Ryan Matthews (Chargers)
19. Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants)
20. Thomas Jones (Chiefs)



My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”

Philip Rivers; The Chiefs are down and it could be time for Rivers to put them out. Rivers is facing a defense that has allowed 89 points in two games, including 8 passing touchdowns; expect a big game from this Charger today.

Michael Turner; The Falcons running back averaged 24 carries in both games last season and scored three times in the two meetings. I look for similar numbers today.

DeSean Jackson; Last week it was the Maclin show, this week it will be Jackson’s turn to torch the opposing secondary. Today’s foe, the Giants secondary has been burned for 11 pass plays of 20 yards or more. I am expecting Jackson to add to that total.

Dustin Keller; He is the team’s leading receiver with 11 catches and should be targeted plenty today against the Raiders (ranked 21st against the pass). Keller also has two touchdowns this season and should add number three today.

By David Ortega