Saturday Evening Edition
September 14th, 2019
Week 2: Fantasy Five
Studs:
I was able to watch a lot of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in week one and I have to say one word, impressive. We knew Jackson was a talented runner, but he must have put in work this offseason, because in week one he became a talented passer too. Let’s just say, I’m buying what I am seeing or saw in week one. His matchup this week at home against the Cardinals who allowed 385 yards passing to Matthew Stafford and the Lions, looks savory.
In week one, Jackson hit on a number of downfield throws for big plays, but he also found his trusty tight end Mark Andrews on 8 of 8 throws for 108 yards and a score. The Cardinals allowed the Lions tight end TJ Hockenson to run roughshod in week one, so Andrews could see similar success.
Duds:
There are just too many viable wide receivers in the Rams passing attack, which unfortunately means if you play tight end, you’ll spend most of your Sundays blocking. In week one the Rams tight ends combined were out-targeted by the wideouts, 31-6. Even with his touchdown reception in week one, Rams tight end Tyler Higbee only had 20 yards receiving on 4 receptions; heavily touchdown dependent for fantasy relevance. I am fading all Rams tight ends, until further notice.
While I actually like the Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay, it’s quite evident he and fellow running back Royce Freeman are in a full-blown time-share. Lindsay played in 33 snaps, while Freeman was on the field for 29. Lindsay also out-touched Freeman, 17-11, but only out-produced 66-61 yards of offense. In basically a 50/50 share, and a tough matchup against a stout Bears' defense, there just may not be enough opportunity for Lindsay to much.
Booms:
Playing on the national spotlight on Sunday night, I am expecting a big bounce back game for the home team Falcons. Calvin Ridley was relatively quiet, but startable in week one with 4 catches for 64 yards and a score (Fantasy WR27 for the week, PPR scoring). In a potential shootout, MGM Mirage has the over/under at 52.5 points, I am expecting a big game from the speedy wideout. The Eagles secondary was torched in week one by the Redskins passing game, allowing 4 plays of 20 yards or more, including two of 40+ yards. This sounds like a matchup right up Ridley’s alley.
In week one the Bills receiver John Brown was a solid WR1 fantasy play (PPR scoring), recording 7 catches for 123 yards receiving and a touchdown on 10 targets. This week the Bills take on the Giants and I am doubling down and “Smokey” John Brown. The Giants defense struggled mightily against the pass in week one and even if Brown doesn’t see another 10 targets, he should see anywhere from 6-8 which will be enough to do WR1 damage for a second week.
Busts:
In week one, the Bills backfield consisted of running backs Frank Gore, TJ Yeldon, and (rookie) Devin Singletary. The offense ran a total of 69 plays and the breakdown in the backfield was as follows; Yeldon-2, Gore-19, and Singletary-48. It’s only a matter of time before Singletary dominates the touches too. Gore, 11 carries for 20 yards rushing in week one is seeing his fantasy value plummet. He can be dropped.
The Titans running back Dion Lewis did see action on 26 of 61 plays in week one, but his poor production (13 yards of offense) and limited opportunity (6 touches) will have owners questioning whether he’s worth holding. With the Titans other running back Derrick Henry seeing 20 touches in week one, this hardly looks like a time-share split. Although, Lewis’ 42% snap percentage indicates some involvement, but keep him on your bench for now, even in PPR.
Sleepers:
With the Niners running back Tevin Coleman shelved for the next couple of weeks, I see Raheem Mostert as a potential week 2 sleeper. The talk has been Matt Breida, but Mostert was the more effective running in week one. When given the opportunity, Mostert has showed some flash. Week 2, the Niners will need their running game and Mostert could be in line for a sizeable workshare.
The Steelers tight Vance McDonald was basically invisible in week one, finally appearing in the final minute of the team’s week one contest against the Patriots. The Steelers ran a lot of 4 receiver sets in the contest (with little success) and there were times Big Ben (Roethlisberger) did look for McDonald but did not have the time to make the throw. The good news, McDonald was the only targeted tight end for the Steelers, so when he faces a Seahawks defense this Sunday, good things could happen. In week one the Seahawks secondary saw Bengals tight ends register 9 catches for 93 yards on 10 targets. I like McDonald to bounce back nicely in week 2.
I watched the Monday night game between the Broncos and Raiders and quarterback Derek Carr looked very sharped. This is his second year under head coach John Gruden and it looks like Carr has many huge strides. Carr was accurate, precise, and showed great poise against a Broncos defense that showed little resistance. I don’t expect to see the Chiefs defense to show much more, but rather I expect like Vegas (MGM Mirage over/under is 53.5 points) a shootout. Carr could be a nice DFS play this week.
Recap Week 1
(Stud) I whiffed big-time with my Stud selection as the Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams turned out to be a huge bust in Week one. Williams exited the season opener early with a knee injury, finishing with just 2 catches for 29 yards receiving on three targets. His appearance was disappointing and altogether a bust one he suffered the injury. As of today he’s listed as a Game-time decision for Sunday at the Lions.
(Dud) The Falcons signal caller, Matt Ryan finished the week as the number 15 fantasy quarterback, so our dud take was spot on. Ryan had a rough going all game long against the Vikings defense throwing 2 interceptions early. Once the game was decided well into the 4th quarter, Ryan was able to salvage his fantasy status with a late score. Matty should definitely see better numbers this Sunday with a home matchup in Week 2.
(Boom) My pick of Lions running back Kerryon Johnson did not work out too well. Johnson did play 50 snaps in week one, which is a very good thing, and did touch the ball 18 times, but he only managed 62 total yards without a score. It was not the start fantasy owners were expecting, but box score results aside, there were some positives that indicate he’ll bounce back. With a favorable week 2 matchup, Johnson owners could be booming soon.
(Bust) For a while it looked like the Browns tight end David Njoku was going to held in check for the day, but a late 3rd quarter score salvaged his day for fantasy owners. I had him as a bust last week, but his final numbers had as the TE8 in fantasy for week one. Fantasy owners still need to take caution with Njoku, his 4 catches for 37 yards receiving (in week one) will keep you nervous.
(Sleeper) I predicted a nice game for the Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. His delivery wasn’t as good as expected. Although his numbers weren’t off the charts, a rushing touchdown paired with a scoring throw kept him viable for some fantasy owners in deeper and two-quarterback leagues. His 98 passing yards were a bit concerning, but I did watch the game and the offense just wasn’t asked to do much in the second half. I’d expect more in week 2.
My Overall Grade=D-
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
Saturday Evening Edition
September 14th, 2019
Week 2 Four Horsemen
Falcons, QB-Matt Ryan: Week one is history and in the books. After a slow start in the first half against the Vikings, Ryan managed to salvage his fantasy opener throwing for 304 yards with two scores and two picks. This week he’s home and will get to take his shots at an Eagles secondary that allowed 370 yards (ranked 28th in the League) to Case Keenum and the Redskins. With his plethora of aerial weapons, Ryan should enjoy similar success in the Sunday night showdown. While the Falcons would like to get their running game out of first gear in this matchup, I would still look for Matty-Ice to put the rock up in the air 35-plus times in this one. My prediction; 26 of 35 passing, 310 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Chiefs, RB-LeSean McCoy: I am buying into the narrative that Shady’s back, back again. McCoy reunites with his old coach Andy Reid who is the commander and chief of one of the most explosive offenses in the league today. While his week one return was hardly memorable for fantasy owners, it’s definitely worth noting his effectiveness and production. McCoy finished week one with 11 touches and 93 total yards of offense; that’s a ridiculous 8.5 yards per touch average. That kind of efficiency may be a little inflated, but as his usage increases, so will his production. As good as McCoy looked in week one, it’s hard to imagine not seeing his role grow with each week. The Raiders did a fair job in week one slowing down the Broncos run game (only 95 yards allowed, ranks 13th in the League), but this offense is a juggernaut and should create plenty of running lanes for Shady. My Prediction; 14 carries, 88 yards rushing, 3 receptions, 26 yards receiving, one score (rushing).
Texans, WR-DeAndre Hopkins: On any given Sunday, the Texans wideout is a stud, but this happens to be a match up that garners a little more attention. This week Hopkins, coming off a solid week one performance will be matched up against one of the leagues’ best corners, the Jaguars Jalen Ramsey. Normally a Ramsey matchup is bad news for the opposing receiver, but in the case of Hopkins such may not be true. In the past six meetings, since Ramsey has become a starter in Jacksonville, Hopkins worst performance came in their first meeting; 5 catches for 48 yards. Since that meeting, Hopkins has seen no fewer than 8 targets and averaged 6.5 receptions, 14 targets, and 83.4 yards, with touchdowns in 3 of their last 4 contests. Hopkins has generally been successful, but his skills and connections have just gotten better with each season playing with quarterback DeShaun Watson. My prediction; 8 catches, 94 yards, one touchdown, on 11 targets.
Chiefs, TE-Travis Kelce; I’m rolling with another favorite in Week two and not hard to figure out why. The Chiefs offense is clearly from another planet and even with the loss of wide receiver Tyreek Hill, it’s hard to imagine this scoring machine slowing down. With the absence of Hill, this should open up a few more targets for Kelce who saw eight in week one. Kelce was far from efficient in the opener, only snagging three of his opportunities, but he did turn those into 88 yards receiving. I’d expect the Chiefs tight end to once again see anywhere from 8-10 targets against the Raiders with a far better outcome of completions and production. My prediction; 7 receptions, 79 yards, one touchdown, on 10 targets
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
Friday Evening Edition
September 13th, 2019
My Week One Reaction & notes:
- Not going to over-react with Jones, Adams, and Rodgers
- Will need lots of patience with Bears offense
- Robinson and Cohen are PPR stars.
- Dalvin Cook-good start, he’s an RB1, Top 5 fantasy RB
- Cousins; quiet game, game script, still productive
- Falcons pass defense better, run defense not so good
- Ryan looked rusty, needed more snaps, will bounce back week 2
- Jones got his work (11 targets), but not numbers; he’ll be fine.
- Ridley with a nice week 1, could be huge in week 2.
- Watched Eagles footage, believing in Wentz
- Give him an arm (Wentz) and DeSean still electric
- McLaurin looks like a deep deadly weapon.
- The John Brown myth continues to grow and may be real
- Like Singletary’s role to grow going forward; Waiver or trade target
- Chris Thompson is PPR magic with 10 targets again
- Hockenson is a waiver or trade target, if you can deal; playmaker in the making
- Lamar looked good as a running back, even better as a passer.
- Adnrews, high volume safety blanket, borderline TE1.
- Sammy Watkins is a hot rising stock, will continue to rise for now.
- All Rams wide receivers are in play in 2019
- Garoppolo a little shaky, but another game under his belt and another win.
- Where is Steelers tight end Vance McDonald?
- Where is the Steelers offense.
- The Goat. And they have AB joining them.
- Derek Carr looks sharp; year two under Gruden, what a difference.
- This Darren Waller kid looks like the real deal.
- It’s the Lindsay-Freeman show in the Broncos backfield.
- Flacco looked pretty good; stood tall, looked poised, and still has arm strength.
- Welcome to 2019 Courtland Sutton.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
Sunday Morning Edition
September 8th, 2019
Sunday Morning Gametime
I am reading the Twitter updates, checking all of the popular sites for fantasy football news, and from these sources, I have some Week one notes to share when considering setting your Fantasy Football lineup…
(RB) Chris Carson in the Seahawks heavy run offense versus the Bengals defense today. Cincinnati allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing running backs last season (NFL scoring).
(RB) Leonard Fournette against the Chiefs defense. Last season the Chiefs allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs (NFL scoring), including 4.9 yards per carry and 6 receiving touchdowns (tied for the most in the league).
(WR) Chris Godwin against the Niners secondary today, with Mike Evans (slated to play) under the weather. Last season the Niners defense allowed a league high 27 receiving touchdowns to opposing receivers.
(RB) Le’Veon Bell against the Bills defense today. The Bills defense surrendered the 8th most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2018, including 21 total touchdowns (2nd most in the league).
My Fave DFS Lineup Week One
Every week I play DFS, because let’s face it, I am a football addict and love the NFL. I watch the games, I root for the players, and every week I piss a few dollars away; but it’s fun. Well the playing part, not the pissing dollars away. Here’s one of my favorite line-ups for Sunday Week One!
Fave DFS play Week One
QB-Kirk Cousin, Min; love the matchup, last season Falcons allowed most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (NFL).
RB-Chris Carson, Sea; Carson has a tasty matchup today against the Bengals.
RB-Kerryon Johnson, Det; This is a great opportunity and favorable matchup for Johnson, hoping to see 20-25 touches.
WR-Chris Godwin, TB; This matchup could be a shootout, Godwin could be in line for 8-10 targets.
WR-Mike Williams, LAC; defense will be focused on the Chargers other weapons as well, Williams should see a number of red-zone opportunities today.
WR-Odell Beckham Jr; A gambling move, but can’t resist the opportunity to own a share of OBJ. He seems like a good bet to find pay-dirt today.
TE-Delanie Walker, Ten; Walker is healthy and has a great matchup against a Browns secondary that allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing TEs last season (NFL scoring)
Flex-Davlin Cook, Min; Cook looks healthy and could be looking at a big season. He should get off to a fast start today against a Falcons defense that allowed 4th highest fantasy points to opposing RBs in 2018.
Def-Seattle; I like this matchup for the Seahawks, especially at home today.
That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega
