FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
September 14th, 2019

Week 2: Fantasy Five

Studs: 
I was able to watch a lot of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in week one and I have to say one word, impressive. We knew Jackson was a talented runner, but he must have put in work this offseason, because in week one he became a talented passer too. Let’s just say, I’m buying what I am seeing or saw in week one. His matchup this week at home against the Cardinals who allowed 385 yards passing to Matthew Stafford and the Lions, looks savory. 

In week one, Jackson hit on a number of downfield throws for big plays, but he also found his trusty tight end Mark Andrews on 8 of 8 throws for 108 yards and a score. The Cardinals allowed the Lions tight end TJ Hockenson to run roughshod in week one, so Andrews could see similar success.

Duds:
There are just too many viable wide receivers in the Rams passing attack, which unfortunately means if you play tight end, you’ll spend most of your Sundays blocking. In week one the Rams tight ends combined were out-targeted by the wideouts, 31-6. Even with his touchdown reception in week one, Rams tight end Tyler Higbee only had 20 yards receiving on 4 receptions; heavily touchdown dependent for fantasy relevance. I am fading all Rams tight ends, until further notice.

While I actually like the Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay, it’s quite evident he and fellow running back Royce Freeman are in a full-blown time-share. Lindsay played in 33 snaps, while Freeman was on the field for 29. Lindsay also out-touched Freeman, 17-11, but only out-produced 66-61 yards of offense. In basically a 50/50 share, and a tough matchup against a stout Bears' defense, there just may not be enough opportunity for Lindsay to much.

Booms:
Playing on the national spotlight on Sunday night, I am expecting a big bounce back game for the home team Falcons. Calvin Ridley was relatively quiet, but startable in week one with 4 catches for 64 yards and a score (Fantasy WR27 for the week, PPR scoring). In a potential shootout, MGM Mirage has the over/under at 52.5 points, I am expecting a big game from the speedy wideout. The Eagles secondary was torched in week one by the Redskins passing game, allowing 4 plays of 20 yards or more, including two of 40+ yards. This sounds like a matchup right up Ridley’s alley.

In week one the Bills receiver John Brown was a solid WR1 fantasy play (PPR scoring), recording 7 catches for 123 yards receiving and a touchdown on 10 targets. This week the Bills take on the Giants and I am doubling down and “Smokey” John Brown. The Giants defense struggled mightily against the pass in week one and even if Brown doesn’t see another 10 targets, he should see anywhere from 6-8 which will be enough to do WR1 damage for a second week.

Busts:
In week one, the Bills backfield consisted of running backs Frank Gore, TJ Yeldon, and (rookie) Devin Singletary. The offense ran a total of 69 plays and the breakdown in the backfield was as follows; Yeldon-2, Gore-19, and Singletary-48. It’s only a matter of time before Singletary dominates the touches too. Gore, 11 carries for 20 yards rushing in week one is seeing his fantasy value plummet. He can be dropped.

The Titans running back Dion Lewis did see action on 26 of 61 plays in week one, but his poor production (13 yards of offense) and limited opportunity (6 touches) will have owners questioning whether he’s worth holding. With the Titans other running back Derrick Henry seeing 20 touches in week one, this hardly looks like a time-share split. Although, Lewis’ 42% snap percentage indicates some involvement, but keep him on your bench for now, even in PPR.

Sleepers:
With the Niners running back Tevin Coleman shelved for the next couple of weeks, I see Raheem Mostert as a potential week 2 sleeper. The talk has been Matt Breida, but Mostert was the more effective running in week one. When given the opportunity, Mostert has showed some flash. Week 2, the Niners will need their running game and Mostert could be in line for a sizeable workshare.

The Steelers tight Vance McDonald was basically invisible in week one, finally appearing in the final minute of the team’s week one contest against the Patriots. The Steelers ran a lot of 4 receiver sets in the contest (with little success) and there were times Big Ben (Roethlisberger) did look for McDonald but did not have the time to make the throw. The good news, McDonald was the only targeted tight end for the Steelers, so when he faces a Seahawks defense this Sunday, good things could happen. In week one the Seahawks secondary saw Bengals tight ends register 9 catches for 93 yards on 10 targets. I like McDonald to bounce back nicely in week 2.

I watched the Monday night game between the Broncos and Raiders and quarterback Derek Carr looked very sharped. This is his second year under head coach John Gruden and it looks like Carr has many huge strides. Carr was accurate, precise, and showed great poise against a Broncos defense that showed little resistance. I don’t expect to see the Chiefs defense to show much more, but rather I expect like Vegas (MGM Mirage over/under is 53.5 points) a shootout. Carr could be a nice DFS play this week.

Recap Week 1
(Stud) I whiffed big-time with my Stud selection as the Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams turned out to be a huge bust in Week one. Williams exited the season opener early with a knee injury, finishing with just 2 catches for 29 yards receiving on three targets. His appearance was disappointing and altogether a bust one he suffered the injury. As of today he’s listed as a Game-time decision for Sunday at the Lions.

(Dud) The Falcons signal caller, Matt Ryan finished the week as the number 15 fantasy quarterback, so our dud take was spot on. Ryan had a rough going all game long against the Vikings defense throwing 2 interceptions early. Once the game was decided well into the 4th quarter, Ryan was able to salvage his fantasy status with a late score. Matty should definitely see better numbers this Sunday with a home matchup in Week 2.

(Boom) My pick of Lions running back Kerryon Johnson did not work out too well. Johnson did play 50 snaps in week one, which is a very good thing, and did touch the ball 18 times, but he only managed 62 total yards without a score. It was not the start fantasy owners were expecting, but box score results aside, there were some positives that indicate he’ll bounce back. With a favorable week 2 matchup, Johnson owners could be booming soon.

(Bust) For a while it looked like the Browns tight end David Njoku was going to held in check for the day, but a late 3rd quarter score salvaged his day for fantasy owners. I had him as a bust last week, but his final numbers had as the TE8 in fantasy for week one. Fantasy owners still need to take caution with Njoku, his 4 catches for 37 yards receiving (in week one) will keep you nervous.

(Sleeper) I predicted a nice game for the Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. His delivery wasn’t as good as expected. Although his numbers weren’t off the charts, a rushing touchdown paired with a scoring throw kept him viable for some fantasy owners in deeper and two-quarterback leagues. His 98 passing yards were a bit concerning, but I did watch the game and the offense just wasn’t asked to do much in the second half. I’d expect more in week 2.

My Overall Grade=D-

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

Wednesday Edition

October 17th, 2012  

Watercooler Chat

“Just Talking Fantasy”

This Weeks Trend-setters

These fantasy contenders or pretenders are just a few names of those that seem to be catching on at the moment, or could be on the verge of breaking out very soon. With week 7 heavily filled with bye teams, these are some of the names that are currently trending on the gridiron; 

Donnie Avery, IND: the Colts wideout has not been much of an impact through the first six weeks, but he is steadily in quarterback Andrew Lucks sight every week. Avery is second on the team with 47 targets this season, including 20 in the teams past two games; it’s just a matter of time before he and Luck start to hook-up.

Dez Bryant, DAL: the Cowboys playmaker has been coming up big of late with 21 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns in his past two starts. He leads the team with 28 targets over the past two games and figures to continue to be the team’s main go-to receiver. With the Panthers 19th ranked pass defense on the slate for Sunday, Bryant looks positioned to continue to be a fantasy trend-setter.

Kenny Britt, TEN: the Titan’s playmaker is gradually working his way back into the picture. Last week against the Steelers Britt found the end-zone for the first time this season. His 11 targets were also a team high. With the veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck under center once again this Sunday, expect these two to continue to work out the kinks and get back on the same page.

Vincent Jackson, TB: the Buccaneers passing game has slowly been coming out of its’ slumber and last Sunday Vincent Jackson was a major contributor grabbing four passes for 66 yards, including two for scores. V-Jax led the team with 8 targets in their blowout win over KC and he also leads the team this season with 46. He’s been on a roll with 10 grabs for over 160 yards and three scores in his last two starts and with the Saints 26th ranked pass defense up next for the Bucs, Jackson looks primed to continue this trend. 

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition

October 16th, 2012 

David's Daily Digest

The Week in Review

Breaking Down my Week 6 Picks

Well, whoever said making fantasy player picks was easy must also have some beach front property in Wyoming to sell. It’s definitely not down to a science, because if it is I need to sign up for the class. Taking a look back at my picks from week 6, ouch!

There were definitely a few misses, but I think I might have saved a little face with some good calls. Every week I am going to start taking a look back at the just completed week and break down my picks and see how I did. So before I start handing out cigars or patting myself on the back, lets start with;

 My Week 6 Duds

It looks like the Giants tight end Martellus Bennett is still in need of a little mending. Not able to cash in on a generous 49ers secondary (4 touchdowns allowed to tight ends this season) Bennett finished Sunday with just one catch for 9 yards.

In the desert quarterback Kevin Kolb was just frustrating to watch, often holding the ball too long and taking way too many hits and sacks. Kolb made the Bills defense look perennial exiting the game early with just 128 yards passing, one touchdown and one pick, He was also sacked five times and as a result of all the punishment he took, he will now be sidelined at least six weeks.

Running back Trent Richardson was a big disappointment on Sunday facing the Bengals. An injury forced him out early with just 37 yards on the ground and it was his back-up Montario Hardesty who enjoyed success rushing for 56 yards with a score.

The 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree pulled a disappearing act on Sunday against the Giants for fantasy owners. The team’s leading receiver finished the game with just three catches for 26 yards.

Hardly a dud, but if not for his touchdown grab on Monday night Demaryrius Thomas fantasy owners would be very upset with his week 6 output. Clearly the Chargers were intent on not letting Thomas break loose, but he did manage to find the end zone. Expect better days and more often.

Others I missed on, the Texans were completely blitzed by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing game. After falling so far behind, Matt Schaub and the offense really struggled against the Packers pass rush, tight end Owen Daniels was a miserable 3 catches for 46 yards. Running back Reggie Bush finished his day with just 17 yards rushing, but he did have 5 grabs for 44 yards.

While we can’t always be right, it is nice to hit the nail on the head with some of my picks each week;

My Week 6 Studs

On Monday night the new king of comeback, quarterback Peyton Manning did not disappoint with three second half touchdowns and finishing the game with over 300 yards passing. Manning started slowly, although he was completing a high percentage of passes in the first half, but clearly he rose to another level in the 2^nd half.

Quarterback Andy Dalton is the type of fantasy success you have to take with a grain of salt, take this past Sunday for instance. He’s goping to give you big numbers from time to time, 381 yards passing and three touchdowns, but they often come at a cost (three interceptions). For the season Dalton has 12 touchdown passes, but he also has 9 picks; you take the bad with the good.

Manning was the only star on Monday night and it could have been much bigger if not for some thick yard-line paint around the 35 yard line. The Broncos wide receiver Eric Decker finished the night with 6 grabs for 98 yards and a score, but just imagine how much bigger his game could have been had he not been tackled by the 35 yard line (yes that is by, not at). As long as Thomas lines up on the other side, Decker is going to see more games like this.

The Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford appears to going through some growing pains this season as he struggles to recapture some of last years’ lightning in a bottle. He wasn’t all bad on Sunday, but he did start painfully slow. Stafford struggled early, but finished mightily passing for 311 yards, tossing one score and running for another. If he can just get out of the gate, he’s got a chance to put together some big games.

The Raiders running back Darren McFadden was a workhorse on Sunday toting the rock 27 times and grabbing three more passes. Run-DMC finished Sunday with 98 total yards and a score, although he did have a fumble. If the Raiders stick to this plan, he’s going to have some big games down the road.

Fantasy owners will be hoping for much better games than this, but running back LeSean McCoy managed to save a bad day with a touchdown grab to go with this 48 total yards (22 rushing, 26 receiving) of offense. And for those in PPR his seven receptions were a nice touch.

It was not a big Monday night for the Chargers running back Ryan Matthews, although maybe if it had been the games; outcome would have been different. Matthews finished the night with 74 yards rushing (on 22 carries) and 19 receiving. Like McCoy and Bush, Matthews four catches may make him a very attractive option in PPR leagues.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: QUICK TAKE

Monday Edition

September 24th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

QUICK TAKES

A Star is Born

The Giants may have found themselves a rising star in wide receiver Ramses Barden after his breakout performance (9 catches, 138 yards receiving) in week 3 against the Carolina Panthers; fantasy owners may have just found themselves a diamond in the rough. Barden has the ideal size and build to be a huge weapon for Eli and the Giants offense going forward, but fantasy owners should exercise some patience and caution until he has proven he has the skill to perform at a high level consistently. 

The good news, with the return of wide receiver Hakeem Nicks (at some point soon: week 4 or 5) to the lineup Barden should get plenty of opportunity in the future to continue to showcase his talents.  He's definitely worthy of a grab and stash off the waiver wires this week, but we'd wait a bit before riding his coat-tails. 

Value: a low flex option at the moment until we see more.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Edition

September 17th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

More Week 2 Takes

Hakeem Nicks: A Special Talent Breaking Loose

The second member of the Giants dynamic duo receiving corp, wide receiver Hakeem Nicks quickly came out of his early season slumber with a huge performance in week 2. After a very dismal week one outing with just four catches for 38 yards, Nicks rewarded his fantasy owners with an explosion in week two. His 199 yards receiving in week 2 lead the league and for PPR owners he added 10 catches and a score; 25 fantasy points in standard scoring. Nicks is a premier WR1 and owners can count on for more big games.

Brent Celek: Vick’s New Best Friend

The Eagles tight end Brent Celek emerged on Sunday as quarterback Michael Vicks favorite target snatching 8 passes for 157 yards receiving. Celek led the team in receiving and all receivers with 11 targets. This should come as little surprise since Celek is also tied for the team lead with 19 targets; a good indication that he’s on Vick’s radar every Sunday and should be fantasy lineups.

Donnie Avery: A Man on the Rise

The former Rams receiver has been incognito the past couple of seasons recovering from injury and the football abyss, but this season he’s landed in Indianapolis where he may be on track to resurrect what was once a promising career. In week two Avery caught nine balls for 111 yards on 10 targets. He’s easily and quickly emerged as one of quarterback Andrew Lucks favorite targets, second to Reggie Wayne. His 18 targets in two games makes him very relevant in fantasy and a strong flex play in all formats.

Percy Harvin: Footloose and Migraine Free

The Vikings explosive receiver Percy Harvin is off to a quick start in 2012 and his 12 catches for 104 yards in week two are just a small indication. In two games Harvin has been targeted 21, far and away the most on the team. His 18 catches this season make him a PPR darling and a good WR2 fantasy option week in and week out. As the season moves along and quarterback Christian Ponder progresses, Harvin could become and even greater fantasy option, but he’ll need to stay healthy.

Dwayne Bowe: The Big Hands on the Reservation

The Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe blew up for 102 yards receiving with two touchdowns in week 2 against the Bills. Bowe was targeted 15 times on Sunday, third most for any receiver and has 21 total targets in two games. Moving forward he is clearly quarterback Matt Cassel’s go-to receiver and should be in all fantasy lineups.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Edition

September 17th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

My Week 2 Takes

Andrew Luck: The Colts QB More Than Just Luck

The Colts rookie quarterback is growing up fast. After a tough debut a week ago in Chicago quarterback Andrew Luck rebounds not just with a solid performance in week 2 against the Vikings, but gets his first career win. Luck is still short of being an every week fantasy QB, but with his three touchdown passes and over 550 yards passing in two games with each performance he’s getting closer.

Alex Smith: The Look of a Winner

The Niners have the defense and a punishing ground attack, but what they have lacked in the air may have finally arrived this season. Thus far this season quarterback Alex Smith has looked steady and efficient, but Sunday night against the Lions he looked like a winner. He didn’t just manage the game, he made plays; his first touchdown pass to Vernon (dropped right in on the money), his second toss to Vernon (gave his playmaker a chance to make a play). Before Monday night’s game, Smith ranked tied-for-second in the NFL with 4 touchdown passes and his 115.9 passer rating ranks 3^rd. He’s not an elite fantasy option, but in deep leagues he’s safe play under center.

Robert Griffin III: Better Than Advertised

After two games and nearly two wins (should have beat the Rams), it’s clear that head coach Mike Shanahan and the Redskins may have caught lightning in a bottle. Quarterback Robert Griffin III is a special player and could be much better than most expected. After two weeks of NFL play RGIII is a top five rated passer and a fantasy stud; (standard scoring) in two games he has scored 28 and 32 fantasy points. Now that’s impressive.

Ray Rice: Best Fantasy RB in the Biz

After another Sunday of just dominating on the gridiron and the fantasy football charts (99 rushing yards, 6 receptions and 53 yards), running back Ray Rice stakes his claim as the best in the biz. What makes Rice such an appealing fantasy option is his consistency; standard scoring 20 fantasy points in week one and 14 points in week two. With nine receptions already, in PPR leagues he’s even better.

Darren Sproles: A Small Package of Dynamite

The small package that is Darren Sproles continues to electrify football fans and fantasy owners on Sunday with high output of production. The scat back was solid in week 2 (huge in PPR leagues) with 13 grabs for 128 yards. He’s not an RB1 fantasy back, but he’s a worthy start as a flex or RB2 in deeper leagues because of his productivity and play making ability; 9 fantasy points in week one and 12 in week two.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Monday Edition

September 10th, 2012 

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 1 Quarterbacks

There were plenty of surprises and nice turn-ins by a few of the Fantasy regular, but these five were the performances I found most interesting on Sunday. I am not saying these were the best, but there’s no question their numbers had an impact in fantasy and on the field.

Mark Sanchez, NYJ (266 yards passing, 3 touchdowns)

The San-chise is back? Maybe it’s too early to be crowing anyone, but what a nice turn-around for the former Trojan after a dismal showing throughout the playoffs; or was that the plan?

My Fantasy Read: Sanchez had a break-out Sunday against the Bills, but it’s far too small a sample to weigh in that he’s come of age. This should be a make or break year for Sanchez and he’s off to a good start, but before you start selling his stock high we’ll need to see more return.

Robert Griffin III, WASH (320 yards passing, 2 touchdowns)

Does anyone want to give Mike Shanahan any credit for knowing what he is doing. Sure his tenure in Washington thus far has been tumultuous at best, but nice call with the selection of the kid with the dreads. RGIII looked nothing like a raw rookie dicing up the Saints defense on Sunday.

My Fantasy Read: The rookie sure didn’t play like one, taking his Redskins on the road and traveling to New Orleans to knock off last seasons’ NFC South Division winner. The feat and performance on Sunday was quite impressive, but it may be a little too early to coronate RGIII. Early as it may be, it’s not too early to say he’s worth starting in week two against the Rams.

  

Tom Brady, NE (236 yards passing, 2 touchdowns)

Tom Terrifc was every bit just that completing 23 of 31 passes as he and the Patriots sailed to an easy 34-13 road win over the Titans.

My Fantasy Read: Once he and his deep threat Brandon Lloyd get more in sync, expect Brady to start posting not just big, but huge numbers. Brady has plenty of weapons, but he’ll need the presence and effectiveness of Lloyd to retain his place near the top of the QB fantasy world.

Jay Cutler, CHI (333 yards passing, 2 touchdowns)

With his new toy in place, Cutler made wide receiver Brandon Marshall feel right at home hooking up with his former and re-united teammate nine times. Cutler also made mince meat of the Colts secondary connecting on 21 of 35 passes.

My Fantasy Read: Cutler was brilliant and quite deadly with his big arm. Now that he has a big time receiver and a couple of big targets he’s going to be a top 10 fantasy QB every week. In week two, he could have trouble facing the Packers pass rush, but when they don’t get there he’s going to make them pay. He’s a worthy start every week.

Peyton Manning, DEN (253 yards passing, 2 touchdowns)

How long was he out anyway? Peyton Manning sure didn’t show much rust Sunday night facing the Steelers defense, as a matter of fact he showed a lot of sharpness and poise. Manning was efficient and accurate as ever completing 19 of 26 passes (73% completion) and completely picking apart the Steelers secondary.

My Fantasy Read: Like any fantasy play it’s always good to consider the matchup, but Manning at this point looks like a safe solid play week in and week out. The Broncos O-line did a pretty good job of protection and with the next matchup in doors (at Atlanta), Manning should feel quite comfortable facing the Falcons secondary next Monday. 

One Final Thought

Not to slight any quarterbacks in week one, but one more that deserves a quick mention is Matt Ryan (ATL). Against the Chiefs Ryan shined with 299 yards passing and three touchdowns. A quick read, this was no fluke; with the weapons he now has in Atlanta, Ryan is poised to put up big numbers. 

By David Ortega