FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING SHOTS

October 8th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Sunday Morning Edition

Sunday Morning Shots 

Week 5: Four Horsemen

With NFL Sunday Week 5 here in the states and set to kickoff in a few hours. I thought I would go ahead and throw out a couple of bold predictions or as I say “Call my shots” for Week 5. These are some fantasy plays and matchups that I am predicting a positive range of outcomes. Play at your own risk, but in these riders I trust for week 5.

These are my Week 5 Four Horsemen.

Anthony Richardson (Colts) - The Colts rookie quarterback has shown through the first four weeks, his fantasy floor is high. I am not calling for a big game today, but rather Richardson will do what he does and should put up solid fantasy numbers. He’s been dynamic this season and a fantasy champion winner as the fantasy QB2 (fantasy points per game) thus far. He’s been doing significant damage on the ground with 131 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns and I would suspect more of the same today; 50 plus rushing, a passing score and rushing.

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) - The rookie runner has dazzled through four weeks, sitting in the fantasy RB10 slot. Robinson is likely to see his usage continue to be dialed up and trending in the direction fantasy owners like to see. His week 5 matchup looks promising as he meets a Texans defense that over the past two weeks has allowed the 8th most points to opposing running backs, including the 6th most total yards (204 rushing, 114 receiving). A dual threat out of the backfield, Robinson should be a busy man contributing to the ground and air attacks on Sunday. He’s a strong bet to total over 100 yards of offense and find the end zone.

Chris Olave (Saints) -The Saints receiver only goes as far as the health of his quarterback. If Derek Carr is healthy on Sunday, after watching the Patriots secondary get torched by the Cowboys in week 4, Olave and company could follow suit. Olave caught just one pass on six targets last week against the Buccaneers, a rebound game is in order here. The Saints wideout should see plenty of work, in the neighborhood of 6-8 targets with a couple of shots in the red zone.

Tyler Higbee (Rams) - With all of the attention and focus on the Rams new dynamic duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Higbee could be more than just a sneaky play. Higbee has been seeing regular work the past couple of weeks and with the Eagles secondary having their hands full with the caped crusaders, Higbee should benefit greatly against the 29th ranked defense (fantasy points allowed) versus opposing tight ends. Higbee could be in line for a 5-7 catch afternoon and a score.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FRIDAY'S FANTASY FIXX

October 6th, 2023

David’s Daily 

Friday Evening Edition

Friday’s Fantasy Fixx

(Week 5: Best Matchups/Plays)

With the start of Week 5 on Thursday night, the 2023 season is moving right along as we enter the “Bye Weeks.” With some players not being available due to their bye, it will be key for owners to stay on top of current trends and matchups.

Some of the notable matchups in play this week will include the Eagles traveling to Sofi Stadium in Los Angeles to face the Rams in what could be a shootout. The Texans quarterback CJ Stroud will take his hot hand on the road this week to Atlanta. And in London the Jaguars will look to defend their overseas territory against Josh Allen and the streaking Bills.

It’s just another fun week in the world of fantasy football with several games offering some key matchups that should benefit fantasy owners in week 5.

Here are the plays I like this weekend.

QB-Anthony Richardson (Colts) - Time to jump on this bandwagon here. Richardson has been fantastic in this early season, currently the fantasy QB2, and now he could be getting back possibly the team’s best weapon (besides himself) in running back Jonathan Taylor. Richardson is poised for a big day against the Titans.

RB-Dameon Pierce (Texans) - After their demolishing of the Steelers in week 4, the Texans offense appears to be firing on all cylinders. Pierce ran hard in week 4, accumulating 24 carries for the afternoon. With the passing game starting to blossom, Pierce should find some open running lanes in Week 5 against the Falcons.

RB-De’Von Achane (Dolphins) - You’ve gotta roll the dice with the hot hand here. Achane has been explosive averaging over 10 yards a tilt on the ground over the past two games. Even if Mostert starts the game, there’s no keeping this kid off the field. The Giants are in town (ranked 29th versus the run) and a chance for Achane to keep rolling along.

WR-DeVonta Smith (Eagles) - The Eagles wide receiver has kind of been the quiet man in recent weeks with his fellow teammate AJ Brown dominating. Smith’s numbers have been overshadowed a bit by the great play of Brown, but he’s still the fantasy WR15 entering week 5. The over/under in this week’s matchup is hovering around 50-points and I like the over. I think Smith is due for a big game and this week is as good as any.

WR-Calvin Ridley (Jaguars) - This is purely a gut call here. Ridley has been just off the past couple of weeks, but the good news, he’s not forgotten. Ridley started the season with the hot hand, 19 targets in his first two games, but it’s been quite the opposite since with just 9 targets in his last two. There’s too much talent here to stay quiet. It’s a tough matchup against the Bills in London, but Ridley and the Jaguars will be well rested.

TE-Tyler Higbee (Rams) - Over the past two weeks the Rams tight end has been consistent averaging 5 catches for 67.5 yards receiving, good enough for the fantasy TE6 slot. With the Eagles coming to town, Higbee will have the opportunity to continue his steady play against a defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

FLX-Breece Hall (Jets) - It’s hard to imagine Head Coach Robert Saleh not featuring running back Breece Hall this week on the road against the Broncos defense. The Jets HC announced Hall would not be on a pitch count any longer and this week they got the Broncos, one of the worst defenses in the league. If there ever was a time to unleash the second year running back, that time is now.

These players may already be locked into your lineup and they may not, but if they are sitting on your bench and you are facing a start’em dilemma consider these plays for Week 5. I guarantee nothing and offer even less, these are just my best guesses about their respective week 5 matchups and outcomes for this weekend. 

Strong plays to consider for DFS as well.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Saturday Evening Edition
September 14th, 2019

Week 2: Fantasy Five

Studs: 
I was able to watch a lot of Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in week one and I have to say one word, impressive. We knew Jackson was a talented runner, but he must have put in work this offseason, because in week one he became a talented passer too. Let’s just say, I’m buying what I am seeing or saw in week one. His matchup this week at home against the Cardinals who allowed 385 yards passing to Matthew Stafford and the Lions, looks savory. 

In week one, Jackson hit on a number of downfield throws for big plays, but he also found his trusty tight end Mark Andrews on 8 of 8 throws for 108 yards and a score. The Cardinals allowed the Lions tight end TJ Hockenson to run roughshod in week one, so Andrews could see similar success.

Duds:
There are just too many viable wide receivers in the Rams passing attack, which unfortunately means if you play tight end, you’ll spend most of your Sundays blocking. In week one the Rams tight ends combined were out-targeted by the wideouts, 31-6. Even with his touchdown reception in week one, Rams tight end Tyler Higbee only had 20 yards receiving on 4 receptions; heavily touchdown dependent for fantasy relevance. I am fading all Rams tight ends, until further notice.

While I actually like the Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay, it’s quite evident he and fellow running back Royce Freeman are in a full-blown time-share. Lindsay played in 33 snaps, while Freeman was on the field for 29. Lindsay also out-touched Freeman, 17-11, but only out-produced 66-61 yards of offense. In basically a 50/50 share, and a tough matchup against a stout Bears' defense, there just may not be enough opportunity for Lindsay to much.

Booms:
Playing on the national spotlight on Sunday night, I am expecting a big bounce back game for the home team Falcons. Calvin Ridley was relatively quiet, but startable in week one with 4 catches for 64 yards and a score (Fantasy WR27 for the week, PPR scoring). In a potential shootout, MGM Mirage has the over/under at 52.5 points, I am expecting a big game from the speedy wideout. The Eagles secondary was torched in week one by the Redskins passing game, allowing 4 plays of 20 yards or more, including two of 40+ yards. This sounds like a matchup right up Ridley’s alley.

In week one the Bills receiver John Brown was a solid WR1 fantasy play (PPR scoring), recording 7 catches for 123 yards receiving and a touchdown on 10 targets. This week the Bills take on the Giants and I am doubling down and “Smokey” John Brown. The Giants defense struggled mightily against the pass in week one and even if Brown doesn’t see another 10 targets, he should see anywhere from 6-8 which will be enough to do WR1 damage for a second week.

Busts:
In week one, the Bills backfield consisted of running backs Frank Gore, TJ Yeldon, and (rookie) Devin Singletary. The offense ran a total of 69 plays and the breakdown in the backfield was as follows; Yeldon-2, Gore-19, and Singletary-48. It’s only a matter of time before Singletary dominates the touches too. Gore, 11 carries for 20 yards rushing in week one is seeing his fantasy value plummet. He can be dropped.

The Titans running back Dion Lewis did see action on 26 of 61 plays in week one, but his poor production (13 yards of offense) and limited opportunity (6 touches) will have owners questioning whether he’s worth holding. With the Titans other running back Derrick Henry seeing 20 touches in week one, this hardly looks like a time-share split. Although, Lewis’ 42% snap percentage indicates some involvement, but keep him on your bench for now, even in PPR.

Sleepers:
With the Niners running back Tevin Coleman shelved for the next couple of weeks, I see Raheem Mostert as a potential week 2 sleeper. The talk has been Matt Breida, but Mostert was the more effective running in week one. When given the opportunity, Mostert has showed some flash. Week 2, the Niners will need their running game and Mostert could be in line for a sizeable workshare.

The Steelers tight Vance McDonald was basically invisible in week one, finally appearing in the final minute of the team’s week one contest against the Patriots. The Steelers ran a lot of 4 receiver sets in the contest (with little success) and there were times Big Ben (Roethlisberger) did look for McDonald but did not have the time to make the throw. The good news, McDonald was the only targeted tight end for the Steelers, so when he faces a Seahawks defense this Sunday, good things could happen. In week one the Seahawks secondary saw Bengals tight ends register 9 catches for 93 yards on 10 targets. I like McDonald to bounce back nicely in week 2.

I watched the Monday night game between the Broncos and Raiders and quarterback Derek Carr looked very sharped. This is his second year under head coach John Gruden and it looks like Carr has many huge strides. Carr was accurate, precise, and showed great poise against a Broncos defense that showed little resistance. I don’t expect to see the Chiefs defense to show much more, but rather I expect like Vegas (MGM Mirage over/under is 53.5 points) a shootout. Carr could be a nice DFS play this week.

Recap Week 1
(Stud) I whiffed big-time with my Stud selection as the Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams turned out to be a huge bust in Week one. Williams exited the season opener early with a knee injury, finishing with just 2 catches for 29 yards receiving on three targets. His appearance was disappointing and altogether a bust one he suffered the injury. As of today he’s listed as a Game-time decision for Sunday at the Lions.

(Dud) The Falcons signal caller, Matt Ryan finished the week as the number 15 fantasy quarterback, so our dud take was spot on. Ryan had a rough going all game long against the Vikings defense throwing 2 interceptions early. Once the game was decided well into the 4th quarter, Ryan was able to salvage his fantasy status with a late score. Matty should definitely see better numbers this Sunday with a home matchup in Week 2.

(Boom) My pick of Lions running back Kerryon Johnson did not work out too well. Johnson did play 50 snaps in week one, which is a very good thing, and did touch the ball 18 times, but he only managed 62 total yards without a score. It was not the start fantasy owners were expecting, but box score results aside, there were some positives that indicate he’ll bounce back. With a favorable week 2 matchup, Johnson owners could be booming soon.

(Bust) For a while it looked like the Browns tight end David Njoku was going to held in check for the day, but a late 3rd quarter score salvaged his day for fantasy owners. I had him as a bust last week, but his final numbers had as the TE8 in fantasy for week one. Fantasy owners still need to take caution with Njoku, his 4 catches for 37 yards receiving (in week one) will keep you nervous.

(Sleeper) I predicted a nice game for the Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins. His delivery wasn’t as good as expected. Although his numbers weren’t off the charts, a rushing touchdown paired with a scoring throw kept him viable for some fantasy owners in deeper and two-quarterback leagues. His 98 passing yards were a bit concerning, but I did watch the game and the offense just wasn’t asked to do much in the second half. I’d expect more in week 2.

My Overall Grade=D-

That’s My Take
~David G. Ortega