FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 10th, 2022

Saturday Evening Edition

NFL WEEK 1: FFSJ BUYS & SELLS

There's nothing like an NFL Sunday morning, a day filled with NFL games from dawn to dusk and for this Fantasy gamer, it's like Christmas has come early. Week one has already begun with one game in the books, but now it's time to focus in on Sunday's slate, filled with 14 games.

Every week fantasy football season long, dynasty, Auction, and DFS players want to know where should they invest their money, what players should they bank on, what are the smart plays, and which are the ones to avoid. the Fantasy Football Street Journal will offer the week one Buys, Sells, and Blue Chips stocks to invest.

Week 1 Buys

RB-Josh Jacobs (Raiders)

The Raiders have a big weapon in the huddle this season with the acquisition of wide receiver Davante Adams. His presence is going to open up a lot of things on the offensive side for the Raiders, including in the run game. Raiders running back Josh Jacobs will face a Chargers defense that allowed the 3rd most rushing yards in 2021. I am buying a lot of Jacobs stock in week 1.

WR-AJ Green (Arizona)

Vegas is calling the Kansas City-Arizona the shootout of the week, with the over/under set at 53 points. With so many points on the board expected, I am investing a lot of stock in this matchup, including the likes of Cardinals wide receiver AJ Green. He's kind of the forgotten man in the Cardinals offense this season, but with no Hopkins (suspended) and Rondale Moore already ruled out, Green becomes a strong flex play with upside. I am buying.

WR-JuJu Smith-Schuster (Chiefs)

In the same matchup (Chiefs-Cards) I am expecting to see a lot of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, airing it out quite a bit and I like one of his newest additions, JuJu Smith-Schuster. Just (4) seasons ago, Smith Schuster posted 111 catches for 1,426 yards as a Steeler, so he is more than capable of playing big. His numbers have been quite off in recent seasons, but now he's got a new signal caller with a great arm. I'm buying lots of JuJu in week 1.

WR-Christian Kirk (Jaguars)

This may be one of my bold predictions based on reading a book by its cover. Last season Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk looked like one of the Cardinals best receivers playing alongside DeAndre Hopkins and AJ Green. In 2021 Kirk posted career highs in receptions and yards. Now he's the de facto number one option in Jacksonville facing a Commanders secondary that allowed the 6th most receptions to opposing wide receivers. And if the preseason is any indication Kirk looks to be the go-to receiver in the Jags pass game. I am buying Kirk in week 1.

Week 1 Sells

RB-Kareem Hunt (Browns)

All the way around, an opening road matchup for the Browns, no Deshaun Watson, and the outlook looks bleak at best. Browns running back Kareem Hunt is the second option out of the backfield and will face a Panthers defense that allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points (NFL.com) to opposing running backs. The Panthers defense was middle of the road in yards allowed, but where they excelled was defending the pass; 2nd fewest receptions and fewest receiving yards allowed to opposing running backs. Hunt in week 1 is a sell for me; avoid starting if you have other options.

RB-Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Chiefs)

Despite the fireworks that are expected in the Chiefs-Cardinals matchup on Sunday, I would expect most of the Chiefs damage to come by way of the air. The Chiefs have so many options in the pass game and following a 2021 season where CEH was targeted just 23 times in 10 games, it's hard to imagine having a huge impact in this one. CEH is a week one sell for me.

WR-Robert Woods (Titans)

After coming off an injury riddled 2021 season that saw him miss 8 games and post a career low of 69 targets with just 45 receptions for 556 yards receiving, it's hard to imagine the Titans wide receiver Robert Woods bouncing back in 22. The Titans are a heavy run offense, so his opportunities could be limited. I am selling on Woods in week one, until I see different.

(DFS) Blue Chips

QB-Jameis Winston (Saints)

My Blue Chip play for Week 1 is Saints Quarterback Jameis Winston. Outside the top 12 rankings for week 1, Winston returns healthy in 2022 with plenty of weapons and an opportunity to build off a solid, but modified 2021 campaign (just 7 games). Winston is on the road this week playing in Atlanta to face a secondary that allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (NFL.com), including the 3rd most passing touchdowns allowed. The Saints should enjoy some success on the ground in this matchup, opening up some play-action that Winston can capitalize on. He's a great value this week. 

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 8th, 2022

Thursday Afternoon Edition

Thursday Night Matchup

Analytics are not my thing and I can admit I've not done a ton of film study for fantasy football. Just like the consensus that enjoy the game, I watch the preseason games, check the latest updates, follow the injury news reports, and catch as much as I can fantasy football talk on Sirius, iTunes, and cable TV.

With having said all of that, my predictions are no more reliable than your average local weather man; but I like my predictions more.

Looking ahead at the NFL's 2022 opening contest on Thursday night between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Rams, there are plenty of fantasy football relevant plays, but I think there are plenty of interesting and sneaky plays that warrant your attention.

So let's start with the visiting Bills, aside from the usual suspects, I don't think rookie running James Cook is getting enough run leading up to tonight. Starting Running Back Devin Singletary is not your typical in between the tackles workhorse and Cook could get some Red-zone love tonight. A Cook touchdown in DFS would go a long way.

The Bills passing game will be anchored by (WR) Stefon Diggs, (WR) Gabriel Davis, and (TE) Dawson Know, but don't overlook wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie (if he's healthy for tonight) who could see substantial playing time in the slot tonight away from the Rams DB Jalen Ramsey. If it's not McKenzie, than the new arrival Jamison Crowder could steal a red-zone score for the Bills.

With the Rams, there's no secret the top play is wide receiver Cooper Kupp, but in this matchup I believe the top scoring receiver in tonight's game could very well be the newcomer, Allen Robinson. Robinson is a big target, almost like a very well skilled and reliable hands tight end; he's sure to see plenty of Red-zone work.

Finally, my last mention comes by the way of the latest rumors I am hearing via Mr. Insider himself, Adam Schefter, Rams rookie running back Kyren Williams. with Darrell Henderson considered primarily a pass receiving running back, if start Cam Akers is not at full health and limited, this could open the door to Williams getting a little extra run tonight. He's one to watch.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 5th, 2022

Monday Afternoon Edition

My Fantasy Football TE Rankings

The tight end position doesn't go very deep, but there are plenty of streaming options and potential sleepers if you look beyond the first 5. Here's a look at my Tight End rankings for the Top-15;

1. Travis Kelce

2. Mark Andrews

3. Kyle Pitts

4. Darren Waller

5. George Kittle

6. Dalton Schultz

7. Dallas Goedert

8. TJ Hockenson

9. Zach Ertz

10. Hunter Henry

11. Cole Kmet

12. Dawson Knox

13. Irv Smith Jr

14. Pat Freiermuth

15. Mike Gesicki

The tight end position has limited set-it and forget it talent, once you get past the top 8. The Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz falls right on that border. His upside is his quarterback Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense, but Ertz is entering his 10th season and will be competing with the likes of receivers Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, AJ Green and DeAndre Hopkins (when he returns from suspension). Big weeks may be far and few in between.

I like tight end Dawson Knox as a piece of the Bills offense, but a lot of his fantasy success in 2021 came by the way of touchdowns. His nine receiving scores tied for the most by tight ends last season and are a big number to duplicate. Fewer scores in 2022 puts Knox in the streaming category.

The Patriots Hunter Henry was a Top-10 fantasy scoring tight end in 2021, although his numbers weren't big; 50 receptions and 603 receiving yards. It was his nine touchdown grabs that were huge. A big number that will be tough to duplicate, but with a full year under his belt with the same quarterback, the Patriots big receiving target is going to be featured in the Red Zone once again in 2022. He should also see a slight tick in his targets share this season that could elevate his fantasy production to top ten neighborhood.

Two sleepers that did not make my Top-15 are the Packers Robert Tonyan and the Commanders Logan Thomas. Both are coming off injuries, but when healthy will be parts of an offense that lacks a lot of dependable receiving options. Both should have plenty of opportunities in 2022.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 4th, 2022

Sunday Afternoon Edition

My Fantasy Football WR Rankings

For this year's fantasy drafts, I think the wide receiver is going to be by far the deepest position on the slate. I might be looking at the one of the top targets, but even if I miss there should be plenty of options to snag throughout the mid-rounds. Here's a look at my Wide Receiver rankings for the Top-25;

1. Justin Jefferson

2. Cooper Kupp

3. Ja'Marr Chase

4. Stefon Diggs

5. Davante Adams

6. Tyreek Hill

7. CeeDee Lamb

8. Deebo Samuel

9. Keenan Allen

10. Tee Higgins

11. Mike Evans

12. DJ Moore

13. AJ Brown

14. Michael Pittman Jr

15. Terry McLaurin

16. Jaylen Waddle

17. Courtland Sutton

18. Diontae Johnson

19. Mike Williams

20. Brandin Cooks

21. Allen Robinson

22. Darnell Mooney

23. Amon-Ra St. Brown

24. Marquise Brown

25. Jerry Jeudy

 

This season there are going to be plenty of options at the receiver spot, even after the big five and the Top-25. A couple of notables just missing my list include, DK Metcalf (Seahawks), Michael Thomas (Saints), Chris Godwin (Buccaneers), Gabriel Davis (Bills), and JuJu Smith-Schuster (Chiefs). Any of these receivers can easily finish in the top twenty this season.

Going down my list from the top, I believe my top five are pretty much par for the course; nothing new to see here. In the second five, it's my number 10 rank that I think might surprise some. I have the Bengals Tee Higgins making my top ten, based on his performance from a year ago. Higgins only played in 14 games and still finished 24th overall in fantasy scoring for receivers, but he was also the 13th ranked fantasy receiver in fantasy points per game.

Another receiver I think I might be more excited about than most is the Commanders Terry McLaurin. I love this kids talent and with quarterback Carson Wentz under center, he'll have his best quarterback since landing in Washington. Despite some mediocre QB play, McLaurin finished the 2021 season as the 25th fantasy receiver with 77 grabs, 1,053 yards receiving, and 5 touchdowns (only 32 fantasy points for the 13th spot), numbers he can easily surpass this season.

Last season both DK Metcalf (14th) and Tyler Lockett (16th) finished in the Top-20 in fantasy scoring for wide receivers and both were top ten in 2020. With Russell Wilson in Denver now, I have both of the Broncos receivers, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy in my top 25. Enough said.

Lastly, I'm a big fan of HBO's "Hard Knocks' and I am drinking the cool-aid this season in Detroit. They may not be Super Bowl bound, but I think the Lions quarterback Jared Goff can be solid this season and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is legit; Brown finished 21st in fantasy scoring for receivers in 2021. I have Brown ranked at 23, but he can easily be a top 10 receiver in 2022.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

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September 4th, 2022

Sunday Afternoon Edition

My Fantasy Football RB Rankings

I am just hours away from my next fantasy draft and just looking over some of the Running Backs I will targeting. With that in mind here's my Running Back rankings for the Top-25;

1. Jonathan Taylor

2. Derrick Henry

3. Christian McCaffrey

4. Dalvin Cook

5. Austin Ekeler

6. Najee Harris

7. Joe Mixon

8. Aaron Jones

9. D'Andre Swift

10. Nick Chubb

11. Saquon Barkley

12. Alvin Kamara

13. Leonard Fournette

14. Javonte Williams

15. James Conner

16. Ezekiel Elliott

17. Breece Hall

18. David Montgomery

19. Elijah Mitchell

20. Cam Akers

21. Travis Etienne Jr.

22. Josh Jacobs

23. AJ Dillon

24. Damien Harris

25. Antonio Gibson

 

I'm not shaking things up too much in the fantasy football world with my personal rankings here, as most of my rankings mirror most of the consensus, but I do have a few variations.

My first is the Titans running back Derrick Henry. I have been seeing a few PPR rankings with Henry as low as 6th, but even with his low receiving totals, the Titans workhorse should see more than enough volume to keep him in the top fantasy RB conversation.

My next notable rank is the Packers running back Aaron Jones ranked 8th overall, and I think I could be low on him. With the departure of Davante Adams, it is conceivable that Jones could be in line to be the team's leading receiver. He's never tallied more than 68 targets in any one season, in his five seasons with the Pack, but being the exceptional pass catcher that he is, it's very much possible he could see as many as 100 targets in 2022.

Perhaps one of the more interesting players in my top 25, coming in at 22 is the Raiders Josh Jacobs. Last season Jacobs finished as the 12th fantasy running back and in 2020 he was even better finishing in the 8th spot (PPR total scoring). My ranking of 22 may be a bit too low for Jacobs, who could be looking at another productive season in a Raiders offense that could put up a lot of points this season.

At the tail-end of my top-25 I have the Commanders Antonio Gibson. Unfortunate circumstances have given his fantasy production prospect new life, but his time in the sun as the starter could be limited. Draft with caution.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 3rd, 2022
Saturday Mid-night Edition

My Fantasy Football QB Rankings

With two drafts left before the start of the 2022 season, here are my Quarterback rankings for the top 15;

1. Josh Allen
2. Patrick Mahomes
3. Justin Herbert
4. Lamar Jackson
5. Tom Brady

6. Kyler Murray
7. Aaron Rodgers
8. Joe Burrow
9. Russell Wilson
10. Dak Prescott

11. Matthew Stafford
12. Jalen Hurts
13. Derek Carr
14. Trey Lance
15. Kirk Cousins 

I think after his impressive 2020 and 2021 campaigns, the Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the consensus number one. He's a lock to have another big season, but I am not so fast to discount the Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Only a few years ago Mahomes was considered the gold standard. Sure with a couple of personnel changes in the off-season, the loss of wide receiver Tyreek Hill might have fantasy owners nervous, but the Chiefs signal caller will still have plenty of weapons and head coach Andy Reid.

I expect a rejuvenated and bounce back season for the Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson who is bigger and stronger this season, which is why I have him ranked at four. 

Despite his age, the Goat, Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady comes in at my number five rank. His age does not concern my, but the addition of receivers Russell Gage and Julio Jones does intrigue me.

Going through my ranking list I need to see more from quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Trey Lance before I can slot them higher. While I am not nearly as high on the kids as others, I have a lot of confidence in the old guys, quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers (ranked 7th) and Russell Wilson (ranked 9th).

Wilson is with a new team in Denver and has plenty of weapons to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback. Even though Rodgers will be without his favorite and most reliable target with the departure of receiver Davante Adams, the four-time MVP is good enough to raise the level of play of the talent around him.

That's my take!
~David G. Ortega