FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 14th, 2011, Wednesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

Foster Sounds-Off, Expects to Play
Just when we thought he might be down, the Texans running back Arian Foster (hamstring) says he expects to play on Sunday after returning to practice on Wednesday. With back-up Ben Tate running effective last weekend against the Colts, if Foster does play he could see his workload tapered back a bit this week against the Dolphins. It’s hard to sit your studs and fantasy owners would have to figure if Foster is out there, he’s healthy enough to produce.

Roddy White remains the Favorite
Despite all the hype surrounding the arrival of rookie wide receiver Julio Jones in Atlanta, it appears fantasy owners can take solice in knowing that Roddy White remains the number one. On Sunday against the Bears, White was targeted a team high 13 times (tied for most targets in week 1). Jones will see his share going forward, but White is still quarterback Matt Ryans’ favorite.

IDP Notes

Sugar Ray is “Sweet” as Ever
This may be his 16th season in the league, but Raven’s linebacker Ray Lewis is playing as sweet as ever. Against the Steelers on Sunday Lewis turned in a gem with six tackles, including one for a loss, one forced fumble, and a pick as the defense was just dominant. As long as he remains healthy, Lewis looks solid in the middle and a great fantasy play against the Titans in week two.

Suggs is a Beast on Sunday
There was no one who was badder, and no one who was better than the Ravens’ defensive end Terrell Suggs. The former Arizona State Sun Devil dominated the line of scrimmage this past Sunday recording three sacks (leads the NFL) and two forced fumbles. He could have another stellar game against a Titan’s offensive line that struggled last week and yielded a pair of sacks.

Just my Tuesday takes.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WATERCOOLER CHAT

September 14TH, 2011, Wednesday

Watercooler Chat

It’s Wednesday or more popularly known as “Hump day” and being the middle of the week, it’s Waiver wire time for most fantasy leagues. If week one caught some of you fantasy owners by surprise, then you might be looking to the waiver wire to get back over the hump.

If your waivers have yet to process in your league, then there’s still time to make the necessary moves to pick up those players that figure to have an impact in Week 2. Last week taught fantasy owners a lot about who is ready, who looks good, and who should be on your watch list, but there’s still plenty more to learn and fortunately for most time to act.

Week 2 Player Watch

Under center

It was only one week, but I would have to say that Dolphins quarterback Chad Henne may have done enough to quiet most of his critics, at least for the time being. His 400 yards passing on Monday night won’t earn him a starting spot on any fantasy teams just yet, but he may be worth stashing away as an insurance policy down the road in deeper leagues.

The Brown’s young passer Colt McCoy was also a nice fantasy play in week one with over 200 yards passing and two scores, if you had him in your lineup. I like McCoy and believe he’s going to get better. It’s not likely that too many folks did start McCoy, but if you are thin at the spot he’s definitely one to watch in the second half of the season; especially with matchups against the Jaguars, Bengals, and Cardinals down the stretch.

In the backfield

The current word going around is Steven Jackson is not expected to play on Monday night against the Giants. If you watched the Rams on Sunday you knew Jackson was an early exit and his replacement Carnell Williams (150 yards of offense against the Eagles) filled in admirably. It’s not certain how long Jackson might be sidelined, but even if for only the one game Williams is worthy of a fantasy roster spot. He figures to see the brunt of the load and will contribute in the passing game.

The Texans may see the return of running back Arian Foster on Sunday against the Dolphins, but that’s no reason to pass on back up Ben Tate. The 2nd year back out of Auburn was a man-child on Sunday against the Colts carrying the rock 24 times for 116 yards. With Foster expecting to return, Tate may not come close to his week one totals, but he could still see plenty of work against the Phins. The Texans ran the ball 41 times in week one and could do more of the same against the league’s 32nd ranked defense. Tate looks to be a solid handcuff (for Foster) and nice flex play this week in deeper leagues.

Split wide

Now it’s definitely something to watch, but let’s not jump all over the bandwagon just yet when it comes to theSteelers’ 2nd year receiver Antonio Brown. He only caught two passes in week one, but don’t let his numbers mislead you. Against the Ravens on Sunday Brown was targeted 9 times, but it was also a game in which the Steelers trailed most of the way and fell behind big. Every week doesn’t figure to follow the same pattern, but there’s no question Big Ben was looking for the kid. If you have the room on your roster, Brown would definitely be a consideration to fill the spot.

The Giants not only fell in week one to the Redskins, but it may have cost them their leading receiver Hakeem Nicks (knee). Although his injury is not considered serious, he is listed as questionable for Monday night’s matchup against the Rams. If Nicks does miss anytime, a sleeper pick off the waiver wires could be number three receiver Domenik Hixon. Hixon has great speed and plenty of big play ability. This could be a tough one since the game is not until Monday, but if if he gets the call he could be a nice sneaky play of the waiver wire; at the very least a possible handcuff for Nicks.

Just my take.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE MORNING HUDDLE

September 14TH, 2011 Wednesday

The Morning Huddle

When I started writing this it was morning, but you do what you can. Yesterday I offered a few thoughts and observations from under center, this morning we’ll take a peek into the backfield. There were a few surprises on Sunday of week one that deserve mention; Earnest Graham’s eight catches out of the backfield against the Lions and Reggie Bushs’ near 100 yards of total offense with a score (and nine catches). These were a few of the more interesting performances in week one that should garner some attention, especially in PPR leagues. It doesn’t appear that neither back is going to emerge as a fantasy stud, although with his upside Bush could provide some nice totals from time-to-time, both look to be effective weekly rentals to fill a possible void in PPRs.

One more performance that should also be noted is running back Ben Tate. The Texan’s back-up ball carrier ran extremely effective in week one gaining over 100 yards (116) on 24 carries with a touchdown. Tate averaged nearly five yards a pop and carried much of the load down the stretch. The impact of his effectiveness is with Arian Foster still a little “iffy” there does not appear any urgency to bring him back sooner than later. If Tate can effectively carry the load like he did in week one, the Texans can be more cautious about bringing Foster back and wait until he is 100% healthy. This would make Tate a temporary solution, but if you were able to handcuff him with Foster, he could be a very productive solution as well.

Week one offered a few interesting plot lines for fantasy owners, but it also gave us some re-assuring answers. So let’s take a look at what was said after one week of the NFl…

Breaking Down the Running Backs

In most fantasy drafts, there’s little doubt about how high Ravens’ running back Ray Rice was taken and if you made that pick you could not have been happy with his week one matchup. Playing the Steelers did not offer any comfort or any hope for a big day, but as a fantasy owner you take the good with the bad and know there will be more good days down the road. Well that may have been your thought process heading into Sunday, but after Rice’s big day (149 yards of offense and two scores) you have to be licking your chops looking ahead. Rice was spectacular averaging over five yards per carry and adding four grabs out of the backfield. If you weren’t thinking that Rice was among the elite ball carriers in fantasy, you may have to start that conversation after week one.

Another eyebrow raising ball carrier in week one was the Eagles running back LeSean McCoy. Sharing the backfield with one of the leagues’ most dangerous players (Vick) has to offer some advantages and on Sunday against the Rams, it looked like McCoy took hold. The Eagles running back gained 122 yards on the ground and scored twice. He only caught two balls on the day, but we expect to see him be more involved in the passing game as the season moves forward. As long as McCoy continues to line up behind Vick, fantasy owners can expect more days like this.

Looking back over the day, there are plenty more names that deserve some kudos, but one name I would like to point out is Rams’ running back Carnell Williams. Cadillac Williams rose from the ashes of the past and turned in a nice fantasy day rushing for 91 yards, catching 5 passes for another 49 yards. He did not find the end zone, but with starter Steven Jackson going down, he’s a lock to see plenty of work on Monday night against the Giants. Williams will not be a long term solution for fantasy owners, but he is looking like a gem as a handcuff for Steven and great week 2 plug-in, if you need help.

Please note, my rankings are not solely based on how the backs played last week. They take into consideration how they were expected to perform, their draft position, and how they will fare going forward.

Top 20 Running backs (Week 1)

1. Ray Rice (Ravens)
2. LeSean McCoy (Eagles)
3. Matt Forte (Bears)
4. Darren McFadden (Raiders)
5. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars)
6. Arian Foster (Texans) DNP*
7. Adrian Peterson (Vikings)
8. Jamaal Charles (Chiefs)
9. Chris Johnson (Titans)
10. Michael Turner (Falcons)
11. Peyton Hillis (Browns)
12. Frank Gore (49ers)
13. Steven Jackson (Rams)**
14. Tim Hightower (Redskins)
15. Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants)
16. Chris Wells (Cardinals)
17. Fred Jackson (Bills)
18. Mike Tolbert (Chargers)
19. Cedric Benson (Bengals)
20. Jahvid Best (Lions)

*Foster is likely to sit week 2 against the Dolphins.
**Jackson is expected to miss Monday night against the Giants

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 13th, 2011 Tuesday

David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes:

TE Fred Davis on the Rise
With normal starter Chris Cooley admitting he’s not completely 100% and receiving props from his head coach for a nice effort on Sunday, it certainly sounds like tight Fred Davis could see his playing time increase. Davis saw plenty of action on Sunday and took advantage of his six targets, catching five balls for over 100 yards. Expect Davis’ stock to continue to rise along with his playing time.

Ochocinco gets lost in the Shuffle
It may be a little concerning for fantasy owners with Ochocinco only seeing three targets on a night whenBrady passes for over 500 yards. What you have to keep in mind, the Patriots like to run a lot of double tight-end sets and Hernanez is quickly becoming a very dangerous weapon in the slot. It’s too early to panic though, Ochocinco is still plenty talented and Brady is still plenty capable of getting the ball to all of his weapons. Remember number 85 is the new guy and it may take a little time for him to find his place; but rest assured the Patriot are working on it.

Fantasy Owners safe with Orton?
It appears to be the case for the moment as Broncos head coach John Fox reassures there is no quarterback controversy in Denver. Orton may be safe, but if the Broncos are going to succeed fantasy owners better not count on more games like Monday night; 50 pass plays and 13 run calls. Whether Orton keeps his job or not, fantasy owners are going to need a better effort if they are going to stick with the Broncos’ quarterback; two costly turnovers and just one score.

Hakeem Nicks could miss Monday Night
Nicks suffered a knee injury in the team’s loss on Sunday to the Redskins. If Nicks is unable to play against a depleted Rams secondary on Monday, wide receiver Domenik Hixon could be a nice fantasy fill-in. Hixon has great speed and explosion and could be a nice fix for fantasy rosters a little thin at the wideout spot.

Just my Tuesday takes.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE MORNING HUDDLE

September 13TH, 2011 Tuesday

The Morning Huddle

Tuesday: Evening Edition

Week one is in the books and what a week it was; record setting to say the least. First on Sunday we see a rookie breakout like we never seen before with Panther’s quarterback Cam Newton throwing for a ridiculous 412 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals. And as if that weren’t enough, how about Tom Brady and his bunch on Monday night; over 500 yards in the air and four scores. If the rest of the 2011 fantasy season is going to be anything like what we have seen thus far, we are in for something quite special!

This season is quite young and only getting started, but there is a lot of watercooler topic to cover and banter about. There’s probably no better place to start breaking down the big arms of the NFL than right at the top, so let get’s started…

Breaking Down the QB’s

Tom (Brady) Terrific was his spectacular self on Monday night, but few could have imagined the game he had against Miami. Brady threw for over 500 yards and four scores, against a defense that was simply over matched (by Tom). It wasn’t just his numbers that impressed, but it also the manner in which Brady literally dissected and completely took apart the defense; he was dominant completing 67% of his passes and averaging nearly 11-yards per pass. Now that was impressive.

Like Brady rookie quarterback Cam Newton was also impressive in his NFL debut. The rookie turned in a very impressive passing day completing 24 of 37 passes (64.8%) for 422 yards and three scores (including one rushing). It may be too soon to crown Newton the next fantasy stud QB, but he’s definitely worth a roster spot on your fantasy team, especially in deep and dynasty leagues.

Another quarterback that raised several eyebrows on Sunday was the Bill’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. The 7th year starter for Buffalo was impressing leading the Bills to a big road win in the hostile confines of Arrowhead stadium. Fitzpatrick was sharp and efficient completing 68% of his passes for 208 yards with four scores. Now there may be something said about the deficiencies in the Chiefs secondary, but a performance like that on the road warrants acknowledgement. If you are thin at the position and Fitzpatrick is available, he definitely has the look of a solid back-up fantasy quarterback.

Now week one was filled with plenty of surprises and risers, but it also had its’ share of duds and those you would like to forget. One particular dud on Sunday was the Chief’s Matt Cassel. Surprisingly at home against the Bills, the former Trojan was ineffective and disappointing completing 22 passes for a mere 119 yards and only one score. Had this been a road game, he might be given a little more grace, but at home, not what the fans or fantasy owners expected.

Another bust that went ka-boom on Sunday was the Steelers own Big Ben. His matchup was not an easy task by any means, but this was a team that he has typically played well against; but not on Sunday. Now it’s hard to knock a guy when he has to face Ray Lewis and the Ravens, but five turnovers and a passer rating of 52.9 won’t get it done against anyone. Fortunately for fantasy owners this may not be problematic and with a home game up next, it could get corrected very quickly. Just the same, it wouldn’t hurt to take a peek at the waiver wire for players like Fitzpatrick, Kevin Kolb, Colt McCoy, or Matt Hasselbeck.

My Fantasy Rankings after week one:

Top 10 (the fantasy Penthouse)

1. Tom Brady (Patriots)
2. Aaron Rodgers (Packers)
3. Drew Brees (Saints)
4. Phillip Rivers (Chargers)
5. Matthew Stafford (Lions)
6. Michael Vick (Eagles)
7. Tony Romo (Cowboys)
8. Jay Cutler (Bears)
9. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bills)
10. Matt Schaub (Texans)


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

September 11TH, 2011 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

It’s week one of the NFL and plenty to get excited about with some key matchups, many personnel changes and a new season at hand. For fantasy owners there are a lot of questions to pose heading into week one and many answers to be found; is this the year of Stafford, how good is Stafford, what about the Colts’ receivers without Manning, and how much action with Chris Johnson see? These are just a few of many we hope to have answered today.

Watch-list

Today’s fantasy watch-list should also include quarterback Donovan McNabb’s impact in Minnesota, does he have anything left in the tank. There should also be plenty of interest in wide receiver Lee Evan’s arrival in Baltimore; will he be able to stretch the field? Let’s not forget about another subtle change that has fantasy interest, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee; can he bring stability to the position and help revive the Titans offense in a division that now looks up for grabs.

Today’s quick notes:

The Eagles will take their 2011show on the road today visiting the St. Louis Rams and they will have the services of recently acquired wide receiver Steve Smith. It remains to be seen how involved Smith will be coming off of injury, for fantasy owners this is a wait-and-see situation.

The Texans will likely be preparing for a running-back-by-committee game plan as it is being reported that Arian Foster is not expected to play today. With their number one sidelined running backs Derrick Ward and Ben Tate will split carries and the Texans passing game could receive a boost.

The Colts will roll into the 2011 football season with a new field general under center, quarterback Kerry Collins. There’s no question Collins is a capable leader and quarterback, but can he command these troops in Indianapolis to near the same level as Peyton? That’s a tall order for any quarterback and with the change, for fantasy owners you will have to devalue all Colts receiver some until we can see what Collins can bring to the table.


Notable Matchups;

The Rams second year quarterback Sam Bradford is looking to have a very good sophomore season and by all counts he should, but today against the Eagles he will face a stiff test. With the additions of Cullen Jenkins (DL), Nnamdi Asomugha (DB), and Dominique Rogers-Cromartie(DB), this could be one exam he could struggle to find the answers today.

Listening to some of the early reports, it sounds like the Texans will be making plans without running back Arian Foster, but they may not need him. Quarterback Matt Schaub and the Texans will face a depleted Colts offense without Peyton Manning and could be primed to strike; add wide receivers Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and tight end Owen Daniels and the prospects look good.

The Chargers will look to start fast in 2011 and will have tight end Antonio Gates on the field today against the Vikings. Gates has been one of the league’s best tight ends and will present a lot of matchup problems for the Vikings; he could have a big game today.

The Giant’s defense is battered leading into week one and will be tested today by Mike Shanahan’s and his Redskins’ running game. Tim Hightower the team’s new starter should see a heavy dose today and could be very effective. Hightower could also make an impact in the short passing game, remember he caught 63 balls back in 2009.

My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”

QB-Matt Stafford; I have him in several leagues and believe he will stay upright this season. He starts in Tampa today and with some nice complimentary weapons and “Megatron” on the perimeter, he should kick start things in high fashion today.

RB-LeSean McCoy; One of the league’s top running backs, but receiving very little fanfare in the early part of the season. I like McCoy out of the backfield a lot today against the Rams.

WR-Roddy White; The talk this preseason has been Julio Jones, but you can bet quarterback Matt Ryan remembers his favorite target (White). With Jones receiving a lot of notoriety, White could remind folks why they had not better forget about him; he could be big today against the Bears.

TE-Owen Daniels; there’s little chance that the colts will be able to stop Andre Johnson, but you know they will have to throw a safety over the top and roll coverage his direction; and when they do tight end Owen Daniels will step up. Lets’ not forget just three seasons ago Daniels caught 70 balls for over 800 yards.