FSH NOTEBOOK: THE MORNING HUDDLE

September 14TH, 2011 Wednesday

The Morning Huddle

When I started writing this it was morning, but you do what you can. Yesterday I offered a few thoughts and observations from under center, this morning we’ll take a peek into the backfield. There were a few surprises on Sunday of week one that deserve mention; Earnest Graham’s eight catches out of the backfield against the Lions and Reggie Bushs’ near 100 yards of total offense with a score (and nine catches). These were a few of the more interesting performances in week one that should garner some attention, especially in PPR leagues. It doesn’t appear that neither back is going to emerge as a fantasy stud, although with his upside Bush could provide some nice totals from time-to-time, both look to be effective weekly rentals to fill a possible void in PPRs.

One more performance that should also be noted is running back Ben Tate. The Texan’s back-up ball carrier ran extremely effective in week one gaining over 100 yards (116) on 24 carries with a touchdown. Tate averaged nearly five yards a pop and carried much of the load down the stretch. The impact of his effectiveness is with Arian Foster still a little “iffy” there does not appear any urgency to bring him back sooner than later. If Tate can effectively carry the load like he did in week one, the Texans can be more cautious about bringing Foster back and wait until he is 100% healthy. This would make Tate a temporary solution, but if you were able to handcuff him with Foster, he could be a very productive solution as well.

Week one offered a few interesting plot lines for fantasy owners, but it also gave us some re-assuring answers. So let’s take a look at what was said after one week of the NFl…

Breaking Down the Running Backs

In most fantasy drafts, there’s little doubt about how high Ravens’ running back Ray Rice was taken and if you made that pick you could not have been happy with his week one matchup. Playing the Steelers did not offer any comfort or any hope for a big day, but as a fantasy owner you take the good with the bad and know there will be more good days down the road. Well that may have been your thought process heading into Sunday, but after Rice’s big day (149 yards of offense and two scores) you have to be licking your chops looking ahead. Rice was spectacular averaging over five yards per carry and adding four grabs out of the backfield. If you weren’t thinking that Rice was among the elite ball carriers in fantasy, you may have to start that conversation after week one.

Another eyebrow raising ball carrier in week one was the Eagles running back LeSean McCoy. Sharing the backfield with one of the leagues’ most dangerous players (Vick) has to offer some advantages and on Sunday against the Rams, it looked like McCoy took hold. The Eagles running back gained 122 yards on the ground and scored twice. He only caught two balls on the day, but we expect to see him be more involved in the passing game as the season moves forward. As long as McCoy continues to line up behind Vick, fantasy owners can expect more days like this.

Looking back over the day, there are plenty more names that deserve some kudos, but one name I would like to point out is Rams’ running back Carnell Williams. Cadillac Williams rose from the ashes of the past and turned in a nice fantasy day rushing for 91 yards, catching 5 passes for another 49 yards. He did not find the end zone, but with starter Steven Jackson going down, he’s a lock to see plenty of work on Monday night against the Giants. Williams will not be a long term solution for fantasy owners, but he is looking like a gem as a handcuff for Steven and great week 2 plug-in, if you need help.

Please note, my rankings are not solely based on how the backs played last week. They take into consideration how they were expected to perform, their draft position, and how they will fare going forward.

Top 20 Running backs (Week 1)

1. Ray Rice (Ravens)
2. LeSean McCoy (Eagles)
3. Matt Forte (Bears)
4. Darren McFadden (Raiders)
5. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars)
6. Arian Foster (Texans) DNP*
7. Adrian Peterson (Vikings)
8. Jamaal Charles (Chiefs)
9. Chris Johnson (Titans)
10. Michael Turner (Falcons)
11. Peyton Hillis (Browns)
12. Frank Gore (49ers)
13. Steven Jackson (Rams)**
14. Tim Hightower (Redskins)
15. Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants)
16. Chris Wells (Cardinals)
17. Fred Jackson (Bills)
18. Mike Tolbert (Chargers)
19. Cedric Benson (Bengals)
20. Jahvid Best (Lions)

*Foster is likely to sit week 2 against the Dolphins.
**Jackson is expected to miss Monday night against the Giants

By David Ortega

FSH: (WEDNESDAY) WATERCOOLER CHAT

September 16th, 2009 10:15pm PST

WATERCOOLER CHAT

In the Life of a Fantasy GM

Do you sit your studs and do you drop your duds?
So you drafted LaDanian Tomlinson or Steven Jackson with one of your early picks; is it time to panic? What about Colston or White, each finished with less than 45-yards receiving; is Colston not the receiver we thought he was and what about Rusty Roddy?

With your fantasy season typically being 13 or 14 weeks long there is plenty of time for your team to get right. Most 10-12 leagues include a two to three week playoff tree, so typically you don’t have to be the best record making the playoffs, you just need to have the best team.

There were plenty of performances to frown about in week one, but not many key ones warrant any drastic action like dropping your stud or week one dud. In Tennessee, running back Chris Johnson is going to be fine after a less than stellar week one performance, as is running back Matt Forte who toted the rock 25 times against the Packers. Roddy White’s 42-yards might raise some concern, but it shouldn’t. White was targeted 10 times and Ryan just missed connecting with him on a couple of deep plays. In Arizona, going in Boldin was less than 100 percent. He caught just a couple of passes, but got through the game with no setbacks.

There is always something to be taken from the opening weekend performances, in some cases it sets the tone for some players (see Wayne, Moss, and Peterson), but many others they’re just getting started. While again, I’ll reiterate not to panic many fantasy owners will still have some difficult decisions to make looking ahead to week two.

Playing the GM Game…
Question: Looking at week two matchups, should you consider sitting any of your starters?
Well as difficult a question as this is, there is no right or wrong answer. You have to consider circumstances and matchups. First things first, your typical studs Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, or Adrian Peterson when healthy these boys are locked in week in and week out. When health is a consideration, all bets are off.

The Fantasy GM
Now that your fantasy season is underway, if you had LT, Steven Jackson, Terrell Owens, Roddy White, or Marques Colston in your line up, you might be rethinking your strategy. No time to panic now, the season is very young people.

Hold Steady:
In St. Louis, with zero points scored in week one the Rams had better be quick learners or fantasy owners may have to get nervous. With one of the leagues most dynamic runners because of his size, strength, and speed 16 touches will not get it done. For the moment I would count on seeing Jackson seeing an increased amount of touches this coming week and being more involved in the pass game. Analysis; this ship will get righted, so don’t sit him.

In New Orleans, it’s much of the same with Marques Colston. Drew Bress was simply outstanding spreading out the field and hitting all his targets. As a matter of fact Colston was targeted six times on the day, while the team’s leading receiver Devery Henderson saw eight balls. Analysis; again don’t panic, Colston will get his looks so don’t sit.

While Monday night was probably an emotional roller coaster if you were a Bills fan and T.O. fantasy owner, this is a situation that you needn’t be too overly concerned about. While the Bills did not go to their best receiver often against the Patriots, the smart plays quarterback Trent Edwards did make were checking down and taking what the defense was giving. Analysis; the offense will open up as the season goes and T.O. will get his touches, don’t sit.

While the Bronco’s defense is not notorious, quarterback Carson Palmer was often forced to settle for a lot of underneath stuff and was at times pressured in the pocket. The Broncos defense actually played well sacking Carson three times and not allowing a single pass play longer than 34-yards. Analysis; the Denver safeties played deep and kept everything in front, expect the Bengals to adjust and Carson to snap back. Don’t sit him.

Some others notables that will be fine after a slow week one start include; QB-Matt Schaub, RB-Brian Westbrook, RB-Darren McFadden, RB-Matt Forte, WR-Anquan Boldin, WR-Chris Henry, WR-Vincent Jackson, and WR-T.J. Houshmandzadeh.

The Panic Room:
While it’s not time for red alert, fantasy owners should be considering alternate options for LaDanian Tomlinson, at least for week two. He’s less than 100 percent and he’ll face a nasty Raven’s defense that won’t give up much.

After a very poor showing on Thursday night against the Titans, Willie Parker owners will want to keep a close eye on this situation. Parker was very ineffective, albeit against a tough Titan’s defense, but the Steelers also called 47 pass plays; something to watch.

It’s worth mentioning with Cadillac making such a triumphant return in week one and Derrick Ward running as well as he did, Earnest Graham could quickly become the odd man out. For now it’s still expected to be a three-headed committee, but Williams and Ward could easily get hot again and lock Earnest out. It would not be wise to have Graham as a starter in any format at this point.

Others notables that it might be time to shelve at least for a bit include; QB-Donovan McNabb (injured), QB-Jake Delhomme (ya think), QB-Brady Quinn (still a work in progress), RB-Larry Johnson, RB-Correll Buckhalter (timeshare), RB-Knowshon Moreno (see Buckhalter), and WR-Domenik Hixon.

Keep checking back for more football....

By David G. Ortega

FSH: SUNDAY NIGHT FANTASY FOOTBALL HEADLINES

July 19th, 2009 9:37pm PST

Sunday Night FF Headlines

Who’s making Fantasy News this Past Week?

Brett Favre’s arm looks fine to Childress:
Well according to Childress Favre’s arm looks fine, but what about the rest of the 40-year old quarterback. The Golden Boy was great at one time, but it’s long odds that he can come back from retirement and do it again. If he’s healthy and survives training camp, he likely be the Vikings starter, but with All-Day in the backfield, expect Favre to serve as a solid QB2 in fantasy this season.

Bucs are expected to be a heavy run-first team in 2009:
Recent reports across the wire would suggest the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be a run-first team in 2009. This should bode well for both Earnest Graham and Derrick Ward, who will most likely see an equal share of work. Unless one of these two comes out of camp well ahead of the other, the ground game of the Bucs will likely be featuring a two-head monster this season.

Vikings expect to get Percy Harvin the ball:
It sounds like part of the Vikings plans on offense this season will be to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers, which would include Percy Harvin. Harvin is an explosive talent that the team is hoping can make an impact, but from the fantasy perspective it’s likely his touches will be limited. At best fantasy owners can hope for a hit and miss option that will on occasion pay huge dividends, but not enough to make Harvin worth any more than a late round addition in drafts.

Marshall planning to attend camp is a good thing:
Recently on the NFL Network, Bronco’s wide receiver stated that he would attend training camp as expected by the team. On the surface this is good news for the organization, but in the entire telecast Marshall sounded very non-committal to the team and organization. Bronco fans and fantasy owners are not out of the woods just yet as there still seems to be a hint of a chance he could be traded.

Derrick Mason retires, so who will Flacco throw to:
With Mason out (if he does retire), who’s left in Baltimore? There has been a little speculation that Mason could be posturing for a long term commitment from the team. If Mason is gone, the Ravens are left with Mark Clayton, Demetrius Williams, and Kelley Washington hardly a who’s who of number one wideouts. If this is what Flacco has to work with in 2009, he’s going to be one of the quarterbacks to avoid in fantasy drafts.

A free Tony Romo now more focused:
In stunning news across the TMZ wire, Tony Romo is a free man following his break-up with famed singer Jessica Simpson. Will Tony now be the player many expected him to be? It’s hard to say, but not because of “no Jessica.” Romo is and should continue to be a low-end QB1 in fantasy. The loss of T.O. hurts, but with Witten and Williams, Romo should still post solid passing numbers in 2009. He could fall some spots, but will be more than a worthy grab as a late round quarterback pick-up.

Matt Cassel signs big deal in Kansas City:
The Chiefs are wagering quite a bit on the arm of Matt Cassel, but it’s not to say fantasy owners should follow suit. Cassel performed very well under a young offensive mind (Josh McDaniels) in New England and in Kansas City he should have the same advantages working with Todd Haley. While that may seem apparent, fantasy owners should not be to hasty to jump on the band-wagon. Last season Cassel was a mid-level QB2 for the Patriots and in KC this season without the comforts of a Tony G. (TE), he’s at best the same again.


By David Ortega

Check back every Sunday for more “Sunday Night FF Headlines!”