FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Evening Edition

August 28th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Picking Favorites

Thinking Draft Strategy

So you have the first pick in your league’s draft or maybe you have one of the early picks, either way you have a decision to make; pick with your heart, your gut, or do you follow some pre-planned strategy?

What I have been noticing (and something you may be seeing as well) in the top positions, if you grab one of the big four running backs you will still be able to come back with solid receivers late in the 2^nd and early in the 3^rd round. It seems most league players are jostling for running backs early leaving time for the early picks to come back with the Alshon Jefferys, Julio Jones, and Randall Cobbs.

And what I have also noticed (in PPRs), you can still turn around in the 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th rounds and find decent value; the likes of Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, and Andre Ellington. These are the players that may not win your weekly matchup on their own, but they will give you good production every week and keep you in the hunt so your big guns can get it done.

In a recent draft I held the 2^nd pick and took Adrian Peterson. With one of the top producing backs in the league I immediately targeted receivers selecting Jordy Nelson and Alshon Jeffery. I followed those two with Roddy White and Reggie Bush; not sexy, but effective. Andrew Luck (my quarterback) was taken in the 6^th and my first tight end (Kyle Rudolph) came off the board in the 7^th.

In another draft I did tonight, I followed a similar pattern (picking in the 8^th slot) selecting receiver-receiver (Dez Bryant and Alshon) and then going running back with my next three picks; Reggie Bush, Andre Ellington, and Chris Johnson. My quarterback (Matt Ryan) and tight end (Dennis Pitta) came in the 7^th and 8^th round respectively.

If you are paying attention, then I am sure you are hearing the same thing; wait on your quarterback, there is time to take him later. Even grabbing a Brees, Manning, or Rodgers can be costly (depending on your league scoring), if taken too early. Let the other deal with that mistake and stick to your plan. The Ryans, Romos, and Cutlers are safe plays with the upside of big game potential and the Flaccos, Palmers, and Rivers will still be there even later to have your back in a jam.

With all of this said there are a lot of ideas and strategies you can follow, and any you choose is never wrong (it’s whatever works for you). But remember to stay on your game and be ready for the wild cards in the draft that can often foul things up.

No matter what happens, stay the course and draft well my friend.

Good luck this fantasy season!

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

Sunday Edition
December 23rd, 2012

  

Sunday Morning Gametime

Randall Cobb
The Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb has been the clear go-to option for several weeks now and this Sunday little will change. He’s a solid WR2 option and should be in all line-ups against the Titans 18th ranked pass defense.

Demaryrius Thomas
Broncos wide receiver Demaryrius Thomas was held in check last week, but don’t count on him being quiet two weeks in a row. Last Sunday it was Decker, this Sunday you can expect Thomas to be more involved; he’s worth starting as a low-end WR2.

Lance Moore
The Saints wide receiver Lance Moore should be a part of the Saints passing parade today against the Cowboys. The Cowboys are ranked 19th against the pass and could mean a lot of Brees and his receivers. Moore is more  of a low end WR3 or flex and worth starting in deeper leagues.

Reggie Bush
The Dolphins running back Reggie Bush has a nice matchup today against the Bills 30th ranked run defense. Bush has played more as a utility player rather than a feature back much of this season, but today he could see a few more touches. Unless you have better options, he’s a low-end RB3 or flex in most formats

Kenny Britt
The Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt has not been much of a fantasy option this season and with so much inconsistency under center he’s a risky play this week that’s hardly worth it. The Titans wide receivers in general are tough to predict, if better options exist all should be avoided.

Josh Freeman
The Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman is coming off a very disappointing performance for fantasy owners, so it’s hard to imagine he’d lay another egg in week 16. Fantasy owners can expect a better game this week from Freeman, but temper your expectations the Rams defense is pretty good and ranked 9th against the pass.

Anquan Boldin
The Ravens wide receiver Anquan Boldin was held without a catch last week, he’s not going to blow up this week but could be a serviceable flex option in the deepest leagues. The Ravens passing game has been inconsistent, but before last week Boldin has been one of its’ more consistent options.

Danario Alexander
The Chargers number one receiver Danario Alexander was held to zero catches last week and draws another tough matchup this week. He’s not likely to post another donut, but it could be another long day with low out-put; avoid is possible.

Just a few notes and thoughts for today’s games…

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FIVE

Saturday Editions

November 3rd, 2012  

FSH Fantasy Five

Week 9 Fantasy Picks (all positions)

With the following teams on bye; San Francisco, New England, St. Louis, and the New York Jets, fantasy owners still face some challenges with balancing their lineups. The most notable players out this week are Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Vernon Davis.

If you are looking for some possible fills or substitutions to complete your lineup for Sunday, these are some picks that could fill some of your 9 voids;

Pierre Thomas, RB

With Darren Sproles shelved for a while, the Saints will turn to running back Pierre Thomas to carry the bulk of the running game load. Thomas is a tough between the tackle runner and can be effective out of the backfield (15 receptions this season). Facing the Eagles defense that allows the 13th fewest fantasy points to running backs, Thomas (257 rushing yards this season) can still offer value as a nice flex play.

Mikel Leshoure, RB

The Lions have not had much of a running game this season, but Sunday against the Jaguars may be their best chance to get it out of the gate. Running back Mikel Leshoure has shown the toughness to take it inside and Sunday against the Jaguars 25th ranked run defense he could get a chance to break it outside. The Jaguars allow the 4th most fantasy points this season, so Leshoure looks like a good flex option this week.

Michael Vick, QB

There’s not a lot of evidence to support starting Michael Vick as he has been a turnover machine through the first half of the season, but if there was ever a game to start him Monday night could be the night. Vick is certainly still capable of playing big and he has an ideal matchup Monday against the Saints. The Saints defense Is a mess right now and ranks 30th in the league, they are also allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Another note, Vick spent many seasons playing in the Georgia Dome, so the artificial surface should only help his cause.

Anquan Boldin, WR

The Ravens wide receiver Anquan Boldin has been steady this season leading the team in receptions (31) and receiving yards (453), but he has only posted one 100-yard receiving game this season. This week he will see the Browns 25th ranked pass defense that has allowed 15 touchdowns this season and allows the 4th most fantasy points to wide receivers. Boldin averages more than 7 targets a game, so expect to see as many if not more and a very productive output from the 10-year receiver. He’s a low WR2 or strong flex play this week.

Reggie Bush, RB

The Dolphins running back Reggie Bush has been held in check as of late scoring in double digit fantasy points just once in his last five games. This Sunday Bush will see the Colts 27th ranked run defense that allows the 7th most fantasy points per game to running backs. Bush will likely share carries with Daniel Thomas, but with his abilities out of the backfield he will have more value as a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition

October 16th, 2012 

David's Daily Digest

The Week in Review

Breaking Down my Week 6 Picks

Well, whoever said making fantasy player picks was easy must also have some beach front property in Wyoming to sell. It’s definitely not down to a science, because if it is I need to sign up for the class. Taking a look back at my picks from week 6, ouch!

There were definitely a few misses, but I think I might have saved a little face with some good calls. Every week I am going to start taking a look back at the just completed week and break down my picks and see how I did. So before I start handing out cigars or patting myself on the back, lets start with;

 My Week 6 Duds

It looks like the Giants tight end Martellus Bennett is still in need of a little mending. Not able to cash in on a generous 49ers secondary (4 touchdowns allowed to tight ends this season) Bennett finished Sunday with just one catch for 9 yards.

In the desert quarterback Kevin Kolb was just frustrating to watch, often holding the ball too long and taking way too many hits and sacks. Kolb made the Bills defense look perennial exiting the game early with just 128 yards passing, one touchdown and one pick, He was also sacked five times and as a result of all the punishment he took, he will now be sidelined at least six weeks.

Running back Trent Richardson was a big disappointment on Sunday facing the Bengals. An injury forced him out early with just 37 yards on the ground and it was his back-up Montario Hardesty who enjoyed success rushing for 56 yards with a score.

The 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree pulled a disappearing act on Sunday against the Giants for fantasy owners. The team’s leading receiver finished the game with just three catches for 26 yards.

Hardly a dud, but if not for his touchdown grab on Monday night Demaryrius Thomas fantasy owners would be very upset with his week 6 output. Clearly the Chargers were intent on not letting Thomas break loose, but he did manage to find the end zone. Expect better days and more often.

Others I missed on, the Texans were completely blitzed by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing game. After falling so far behind, Matt Schaub and the offense really struggled against the Packers pass rush, tight end Owen Daniels was a miserable 3 catches for 46 yards. Running back Reggie Bush finished his day with just 17 yards rushing, but he did have 5 grabs for 44 yards.

While we can’t always be right, it is nice to hit the nail on the head with some of my picks each week;

My Week 6 Studs

On Monday night the new king of comeback, quarterback Peyton Manning did not disappoint with three second half touchdowns and finishing the game with over 300 yards passing. Manning started slowly, although he was completing a high percentage of passes in the first half, but clearly he rose to another level in the 2^nd half.

Quarterback Andy Dalton is the type of fantasy success you have to take with a grain of salt, take this past Sunday for instance. He’s goping to give you big numbers from time to time, 381 yards passing and three touchdowns, but they often come at a cost (three interceptions). For the season Dalton has 12 touchdown passes, but he also has 9 picks; you take the bad with the good.

Manning was the only star on Monday night and it could have been much bigger if not for some thick yard-line paint around the 35 yard line. The Broncos wide receiver Eric Decker finished the night with 6 grabs for 98 yards and a score, but just imagine how much bigger his game could have been had he not been tackled by the 35 yard line (yes that is by, not at). As long as Thomas lines up on the other side, Decker is going to see more games like this.

The Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford appears to going through some growing pains this season as he struggles to recapture some of last years’ lightning in a bottle. He wasn’t all bad on Sunday, but he did start painfully slow. Stafford struggled early, but finished mightily passing for 311 yards, tossing one score and running for another. If he can just get out of the gate, he’s got a chance to put together some big games.

The Raiders running back Darren McFadden was a workhorse on Sunday toting the rock 27 times and grabbing three more passes. Run-DMC finished Sunday with 98 total yards and a score, although he did have a fumble. If the Raiders stick to this plan, he’s going to have some big games down the road.

Fantasy owners will be hoping for much better games than this, but running back LeSean McCoy managed to save a bad day with a touchdown grab to go with this 48 total yards (22 rushing, 26 receiving) of offense. And for those in PPR his seven receptions were a nice touch.

It was not a big Monday night for the Chargers running back Ryan Matthews, although maybe if it had been the games; outcome would have been different. Matthews finished the night with 74 yards rushing (on 22 carries) and 19 receiving. Like McCoy and Bush, Matthews four catches may make him a very attractive option in PPR leagues.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: QUICK TAKES

Sunday Edition
October 14th, 2012  

David’s Daily Digest

Week 6 Quick Takes

Likes

The Lions are not known for being a stellar run defense, even with Ndamukong Suh lining up. The Eagles running back LeSean McCoy has elevated himself to elite status as a runner and for fantasy owners, it’s about that time to rise again. The Lions have been respectable, but McCoy is too dynamic to be contained and should contribute in both the run and pass game today.

The Texans and Packers could be headed to an old-fashion shootout tonight when they take the field. There’s no question the Packers secondary will be focused on containing wideout Andre Johnson, but I like tight end Owen Daniels to exploit some matchups and have a big game. Daniels has emerged as one of quarterback Matt Schaub’s favorites and leads the team with 33 targets.

With Daniel Thomas sidelined, this could be the week that Dolphins running back Reggie Bush makes believers out of everyone again. Bush is having a decent 2012 campaign, but today’s matchup against the Rams 18th ranked run defense could be the spring board he’s looking for. The Rams allow well over four yards per carry, nearly 120 yards per game, and in five games have surrendered six rushing touchdowns. I like Bush to have a nice game on the ground and look for him to add a couple of grabs to the stat book.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Monday Edition

August 20th, 2012 

David’s Daily Digest

A New Season and New Faces to Watch

With every new NFL season a new fantasy season begins and with that the new crop faces and names of the payers to watch. This year will be no different. There are going to be some real gems in your fantasy draft that are going to out-perform their draft position (if they are drafted), but the key is identifying these guys early before they become public knowledge and up for grabs in your fantasy leagues.

Rising Stars

Last season a couple of late bloomers that figure to be key performers in the upcoming fantasy season include; Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown and Raiders wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey. Now of course this is only a short list and there are likely plenty more to talk about, but let’s just start with these.

In only his second season the Steelers newly resigned (just this off-season to a hefty extension) wideout made a very good name for himself in 2011 playing opposite the speedy Mike Wallace. While Wallace often demanded double coverage, Brown exploited the single coverage he faced and produced strong numbers in his sophomore campaign; 69 receptions and 1,100 yards receiving. Entering his third season he looks ready to breakout.

Heyward-Bey, a fourth year player for the Raiders started out slow last season, but finally broke out in week 4 with against the Patriots. Just when it appeared he was finally starting to hit his stride, down went quarterback Jason Campbell; enter Carson Palmer. It took a while for Palmer and Heyward-Bey to gel, but once the two were in sync the Raiders receiver starting to shine. In his last four starts Heyward-Bey caught 26 passes for 433 yards and two touchdowns. Palmer is back under center and Heyward-Bey looks ready to rise to the next level.

Another name to consider is the Dolphins running back Reggie Bush, who is no old dog, but seems to still have a few tricks. Not a stranger to fantasy, Bush has been relatively irrelevant the past several seasons falling off many drafts boards come draft day. It’s understandable; he missed 20 games over his last four seasons in New Orleans before joining the Phins in 2011, but after last season’s performance down the stretch he could be experiencing a rebirth in South Beach.

With the Phins making the move to roll with their rookie quarterback, Bush is going to be rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s best friend out of the backfield; and we already know what Reggie can do with the ball in space. A lot of folks are skeptical about Bush’s durability, but if used wisely he can be a monster on offense on the ground and in the air. Last season Bush finished as the leagues’ 13^th leading rusher, coming on strong down the stretch. His last four starts he averaged around 23 touches per game and 150 yards of offense. He definitely looks primed to rise in 2012.

Sleepers Watch

Worthy Hands?

These guys are likely off most radars and understandably so, but I believe they are more than interesting enough to keep a watch for; in Miami wide receiver Roberto Wallace, in St. Louis wide receiver Steve Smith, in Tampa Bay Mike Williams, and in Detroit wide receiver Titus Young.

Wallace is a relative unknown (unless you have been watching “Hard Knocks”), but he has the size and athletic build to be a star. He just needs a young strong arm to believe in him. With the wide receiver position wide open in Miami, he not only has a chance to make the team, but earn significant time. All he needs is opportunity to be a big producer.

A receiver that knows something about being a big producer may have just found himself the best home yet in St. Louis. Steve Smith was highly productive in New York before injuries derailed his ascension. Now with the Rams, this veteran has a chance to build a strong rapport with a very young and confident arm in Sam Bradford. Already he is making an impression with 11 catches in just two preseason games. This recipe certainly has the smell and flavor of becoming something quite tasty for the fantasy world.

Williams and Young are not quite unknown, having had decent 2011 seasons, but playing in the shadows of Calvin Johnson (in Detroit) and Vincent Jackson (former Charger) will certainly improve their chances of continuing with that momentum. Young will enter his second season and still play second fiddle, but with the young Matt Stafford firing the pigskin, he should still get plenty of looks to be more than relevant in 2011. Williams caught 65 balls for the second straight season, but only found the end-zone 3 times (down from 11 in 2010). Jackson’s presence should ensure he produces even better numbers in 2012, including many more touchdowns.

These are just my takes on a few of the up and coming fantasy studs for 2012.

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

December 4th, 2011 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

My quick notes:

Who to Watch

Tonight’s Sunday night matchup between the Saints and Lions could end up being a much closer track meet than what saw last Monday between the Saints and Giants. Matthew Stafford has shown this season he has the talent to run with the big dogs, but he’s also got the horses. The Saints are 27th against the pass and could have a lot of matchup problems with some of the Lions big targets. I like Stafford to break out of his funk and play well on the road.

The Cowboys have been rolling along the past several weeks and a big reason has been the consistent play of quarterback Tony Romo. On the road today, he’ll have a chance to continue his winning ways and solid play when the Cowboys meet the Cardinals in Arizona. The Cards rank 25th against the pass and allow more than 250 yards in the air; Romo should be solid today.

Despite the notion that “he can’t” I would suggest sticking with your instincts and keep Tebow in your lineup. He’s on the road today to take on Minnesota, and while the Broncos have been predominantly a running team, I expect to see a few more balls in the air. This could be the week where we see more of Tebow the passer and not just Tebow the playmaker. Either way facing the leagues 29th ranked pass defense could mean for a big game for Tebow.

Who to Avoid

It looks like Rams quarterback Sam Bradford (game-time decision) is sitting on the fence and with AJ Feeley taking first team snaps this week in practice, this could be a situation well worth avoiding all together. The Rams are on the road today and face a daunting task when they travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers.

The Cardinals Beanie Wells is coming off a career game, so the tendency is to stick him in your line-up. While the Cowboys have not been stout versus the run, they have good speed on the defensive side and could be playing most of this game from out front. Wells will become less of a factor if the Cards have to play catchup; Wells could be risky so you may want to look at better options if available.


My Picks Today

My “Four Horsemen”

I stepped away for a while, but today I am feeling good about quite a few players, so let’s take another shot at our four riders for week 13;

Matthew Stafford; the kid has been struggling some, but I look for a bounce back performance tonight against a Saint team that will have to bring pressure and could leave a few Lions in single coverage. Stafford should go for a nifty 300 with at least two touchdowns tonight.

Reggie Bush; if you play PPR then this is your man for Sundya. Taking on the Raiders, Bush should be the focus out of the backfield and in space. The Raiders run defense is ranked 27th and will have trouble slowing down Bush; he’s also a threat to grab a number of passes out of the backfield. I expect at least 125 yards of total offense with 4-5 grabs and a trip to the end-zone.

Brandon Lloyd; despite the possible change at quarterback today, I still like Lloyd. He is the Rams best weapon and whether it’s Feeley or Bradford, he’ll see more than his share of targets; averaging double-digits since becoming a Ram. The 49ers boast a stingy defense, but they do surrender over 240 yards per game and have allowed 15 passing touchdowns. I expect Lloyd to grab a number of passes with at least one trip to the end-zone.

Aaron Hernandez; The Colts are well of aware of the Patriots tight ends, but they won’t be able to cover both. Gronkowski has been the focus over recent weeks, but with Hernandez coming off consecutive seven target games I expect to see Brady look his way a little more often this Sunday. Hernandez has not a big game since week one, but could turn in a huge day today against the Colts; six catches, 85 yards and a score.

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE MORNING HUDDLE

September 14TH, 2011 Wednesday

The Morning Huddle

When I started writing this it was morning, but you do what you can. Yesterday I offered a few thoughts and observations from under center, this morning we’ll take a peek into the backfield. There were a few surprises on Sunday of week one that deserve mention; Earnest Graham’s eight catches out of the backfield against the Lions and Reggie Bushs’ near 100 yards of total offense with a score (and nine catches). These were a few of the more interesting performances in week one that should garner some attention, especially in PPR leagues. It doesn’t appear that neither back is going to emerge as a fantasy stud, although with his upside Bush could provide some nice totals from time-to-time, both look to be effective weekly rentals to fill a possible void in PPRs.

One more performance that should also be noted is running back Ben Tate. The Texan’s back-up ball carrier ran extremely effective in week one gaining over 100 yards (116) on 24 carries with a touchdown. Tate averaged nearly five yards a pop and carried much of the load down the stretch. The impact of his effectiveness is with Arian Foster still a little “iffy” there does not appear any urgency to bring him back sooner than later. If Tate can effectively carry the load like he did in week one, the Texans can be more cautious about bringing Foster back and wait until he is 100% healthy. This would make Tate a temporary solution, but if you were able to handcuff him with Foster, he could be a very productive solution as well.

Week one offered a few interesting plot lines for fantasy owners, but it also gave us some re-assuring answers. So let’s take a look at what was said after one week of the NFl…

Breaking Down the Running Backs

In most fantasy drafts, there’s little doubt about how high Ravens’ running back Ray Rice was taken and if you made that pick you could not have been happy with his week one matchup. Playing the Steelers did not offer any comfort or any hope for a big day, but as a fantasy owner you take the good with the bad and know there will be more good days down the road. Well that may have been your thought process heading into Sunday, but after Rice’s big day (149 yards of offense and two scores) you have to be licking your chops looking ahead. Rice was spectacular averaging over five yards per carry and adding four grabs out of the backfield. If you weren’t thinking that Rice was among the elite ball carriers in fantasy, you may have to start that conversation after week one.

Another eyebrow raising ball carrier in week one was the Eagles running back LeSean McCoy. Sharing the backfield with one of the leagues’ most dangerous players (Vick) has to offer some advantages and on Sunday against the Rams, it looked like McCoy took hold. The Eagles running back gained 122 yards on the ground and scored twice. He only caught two balls on the day, but we expect to see him be more involved in the passing game as the season moves forward. As long as McCoy continues to line up behind Vick, fantasy owners can expect more days like this.

Looking back over the day, there are plenty more names that deserve some kudos, but one name I would like to point out is Rams’ running back Carnell Williams. Cadillac Williams rose from the ashes of the past and turned in a nice fantasy day rushing for 91 yards, catching 5 passes for another 49 yards. He did not find the end zone, but with starter Steven Jackson going down, he’s a lock to see plenty of work on Monday night against the Giants. Williams will not be a long term solution for fantasy owners, but he is looking like a gem as a handcuff for Steven and great week 2 plug-in, if you need help.

Please note, my rankings are not solely based on how the backs played last week. They take into consideration how they were expected to perform, their draft position, and how they will fare going forward.

Top 20 Running backs (Week 1)

1. Ray Rice (Ravens)
2. LeSean McCoy (Eagles)
3. Matt Forte (Bears)
4. Darren McFadden (Raiders)
5. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars)
6. Arian Foster (Texans) DNP*
7. Adrian Peterson (Vikings)
8. Jamaal Charles (Chiefs)
9. Chris Johnson (Titans)
10. Michael Turner (Falcons)
11. Peyton Hillis (Browns)
12. Frank Gore (49ers)
13. Steven Jackson (Rams)**
14. Tim Hightower (Redskins)
15. Ahmad Bradshaw (Giants)
16. Chris Wells (Cardinals)
17. Fred Jackson (Bills)
18. Mike Tolbert (Chargers)
19. Cedric Benson (Bengals)
20. Jahvid Best (Lions)

*Foster is likely to sit week 2 against the Dolphins.
**Jackson is expected to miss Monday night against the Giants

By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: THE SATURDAY FANTASY REPORT

January 8th, 2011 Saturday

The Saturday Fantasy Report

Wild-Card Saturday

Bush Will Need a Big Game
….the Saints will be minus running backs Pierre Thomas (injured reserve) and Chris Ivory (injured reserve) throughout the playoffs, so it now becomes the Reggie Bush show. Bush had one of his productive games in the team’s finale against the Buccaneers, but he’ll need to elevate his game in the post season if the Saints are to go deep. Bush still has plenty of explosion and speed and can also be a versatile weapon utilized in the passing game; he caught 34 passes in eight games this season.

With their depleted backfield entering the post season Bush figures to see an increased role and become more of a featured back in the Saints offense. He’ll get plenty of work today against the Seahawks 21st ranked run defense. Bush averaged just 4.2 yards per carry this season, but in the season finale he ran for 70 yards on just 9 carries. He’ll need that kind of running today against Seattle and he should get plenty of touches to do it.

The Seahawks have struggled this season with the ground game surrendering 16 runs of 20 yards or more, so look for Bush to break at least one big one today.
(My thoughts; 18 carries, 110 yards, 5 receptions, 25 yards, two touchdowns)

Williams Could Play Big Against Saints
….the Seahawks don’t have the firepower offensively to match the Saints offense, but what they do have you can bet they will use. The team recently signed wide receiver Mike Williams to a three year extension acknowledging they believe the kid is talented and can play; his 65 receptions also say the same.

Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck believes this too and will be looking for his big target all afternoon against a very tough secondary. The Saints have not done well with takeaways in the secondary this season, so you can bet Hasselbeck will be taking his shots. Williams is not a fast target, but should not have trouble finding space underneath coverage and over the middle of the field.

The Seahawks should be able to move the ball on the ground, but could struggle some in the red-zone today.
(My thoughts: 8 catches, 75 yards, no touchdowns)


It’s Manning Versus the World (Jets)
….there are not a lot of folks picking this Colts team to get very far, but I am pretty sure quarterback Peyton Manning is going to do everything he can this evening to push the Colts into the next round. It’s been no secret about Manning’s struggles and 17 interceptions this season, but while he has had his lumps, lets’ not forget the 4,700 yards passing and 33 touchdowns.

One way or another Peyton just finds a way to get it done and has done so for the past nine straight seasons. It’s not always been peas and carrots in the playoffs for the 13 year veteran, but he’s coming into the post season playing well and he has to be confident with his first round matchup. These are the same Jets he sliced apart a year ago and tonight you can bet it will be all about Manning versus Rex Ryan’s defense.

You can forget all the talk about a running game; the Jets know they have to stop Peyton and the Colts know they will live or die this evening with Peyton. This season Manning averaged 42 passes per game and will use no fewer this evening against the Jets; it will be a big night.
(My thoughts; 28 of 44 passing, 325 yards passing, three touchdowns)

Other notes…

…tight end John Carlson could get some play today against the Saints with coverage focused on the outside (Williams and Obomanu). Carlson only saw 58 targets all season (about four per game), but could be much busier today matched up with Saints linebackers.

….Marshawn Lynch should see considerable work early while the game remains close, but figures to disappear in the second half once the Saints open things up. Justin Forsett could end up seeing more work and fantasy points, especially in PPR Leagues.

…the Colts know they will have to stop the Jets run game. With Sanchez struggling under center (just one touchdown in his last five starts), the Colts defense will force the 2nd year starter to make plays; Sanchez could be in for a rough ride tonight.

FSH: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

December 5th, 2010, Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

Today’s injury notes

The Charger’s have not ruled Antonio Gates out of today’s game just yet. He is expected to test his ankle during warm-ups this morning, so there’s a chance he will play.Officially Gates is listed as questionable.

The Saints running back Reggie Bush (leg) is still not quite 100 percent, but he is a full-go and will play today against the Bengals. Last week Bush showed a lot of rust returning to action fumbling the ball away once during the Saints win over the Cowboys.

The Vikings may be without one of their playmakers today; Percy Harvin. Harvin has been battling migraines all week and it is likely he could be inactive today as a result; make sure to check the inactive reports.

The Vikings running Arian Peterson is a big question mark for today, but he was out on the field during warm-ups testing the ankle. It appears he’s not 100 percent, but may try to give it a go.

The Saints will be without running back Pierre Thomas (ankle) who will be inactive. The reports all week had been indicating he would likely sit today, but Thomas does sound like a good shot to play next week.

Today’s Matchup

The Vikings secondary has had its struggles this season with covering and tackling. The Bills wide receiver Stevie Johnson is a star on the rise. I like his matchup today against the Viking’s corners and expect quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to target him repeatedly today. Look for a big game from Johnson.

The Lions may be making a change at quarterback going with Drew Stanton, but that should not hurt Calvin Johnson fantasy owners. Back in week six earlier this season, Stanton played most of the game for the Lions and Johnson blew up for 146 yards, three of Johnson’s receptions came from Stanton for 102 yards. Stanton may be the backup, but he’ll know where to go with the ball, Johnson owners can expect a solid outing.

The Seahawks defense has struggled with the ground game this season allowing 11 rushing touchdowns this season. Today running back Jonathan Stewart will get his crack at the Seahawks. Last week Stewart returned to action and looked very good rushing 12 times for 98 yards. He should see a hefty share of carries and could have a productive day carrying the pill; start him.

By David Ortega

FSH: SUNDAY MORNING GAMETIME

November 21st, 2010 Sunday

Sunday Morning Gametime

Week 11 will mark a beginning for some teams today and an ending for others. Team’s like the Vikings and the 49ers will be playing for the post-season life; at 3-6 there’s not much life there, but another loss and stick a fork in them. While teams like the Packers and Saints are set to begin their post-season push and at 6-3 both teams look poised to make their runs.

With so much on the line for all of these teams, today could be a scoring haven for fantasy owners expecting to see a lot of the big names step up and give their best; names to watch include Favre, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady. Injuries will always play a part in the outcome, but with players like Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Terrell Owens lining up we’ll see plenty of fireworks today

With nine games in the morning the fun will get off to a fast start and conclude this evening with a great matchup between the Giants and Eagles. If you have nothing better to do (and how could you), find your local tailgate party, strap on your favorite lid and get set for week 11….

Today’s injury notes:

The Redskins will be missing running back Ryan Torain (hamstring) today, but will see the return of running back Clinton Portis. Also out today for the Skins, defensive backs Laron Landry and Carlos Rogers; that will hurt today against the Titans.

The Browns are not going to have wide receiver and special teamer Joshua Cribbs (dislocated toes).

According to Fox Sports the Saints running back Reggie Bush is likely to miss today’s matchup with the Seahawks. The team already announced earlier in the week running back Pierre Thomas would not play.

Today the Viking’s wide receiver Sidney Rice is expected to make his 2010 season debut. Rice was activated from the PUP list earlier in the week.

Earlier this week the Lions placed running back Kevin Smith on the injured reserve, meaning rooke running back Jahvid Best will likely see a more increased role going forward; no RBBC in Detroit.

In their big clash today with the Patriots, Peyton Manning and the Colts will not have the services of running back Jospeh Addai (neck), but could see wide receiver Austin Collie (concussion) return to action; against the Pats that would be very good news.

Notable Matchups;

Today with Addai out and on the road, there’s little doubt that the Colts will be relying heavily on Peyton Manning to play well. One component Manning will be leaning on heavily to find success could be his new best buddy and tight end Jacob Tamme. Tamme has been targeted 36 times in his last three games and has had great success catching 24 balls for 245 yards with two scores. The Patriots boast the 29 ranked pass defense, so Tamme looks to be a safe bet.

The Jets wide receiver Braylon Edwards (5 touchdowns) has had to be very patient over the past several weeks with his quarterback spreading the ball around a lot. Today his patience could see a lot of return against the league’s worst secondary, the Houston Texans. Edwards is only averaging just over six targets a game over his last three played, but that may be all he needs to do some heavy damage against today’s opponent. The Texans have been torched for over 300 yards passing per game this season and they have allowed a league high 22 passing touchdowns.

If there were ever a game to play Jermaine Gresham, today is that game. The Bengal’s rookie tight really appears to be sprouting his wings and starting to blossom into the type of playmaker that had hoped they drafted. Last week Gresham caught nine passes for 85 yards and a score. Today he’ll face one of the worst defenses at covering the tight end position; it could be a big day for Jermaine.

The Lions wide receiver Calving Johnson has really been solid this season considering the number of quarterback changes he has had to work with. Through it all he has performed brilliantly catching 49 passes for nearly 700 yards and nine touchdowns. Today against the Dallas Cowboys he’ll square off against a secondary (ranked 20th) that has allowed 20 passing touchdowns and 33 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season. Don’t be surprised to see Megatron have a huge game today.