FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID"S DAILY DIGEST

December 3rd, 2016

Saturday Morning Edition

Fantasy Playoffs, Playoffs, Playoffs

We are not quite there, but we have reached the nitty-gritty! With one week left before the Fantasy Playoffs start in many re-draft leagues. I play in several myself and this week is pivotal for my post-season hopes.

A couple of early lineup moves in my PPR leagues I made this week leading up to Sunday; in the Thursday night game I inserted Vikings wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Vikings running back Jerrick McKinnon. These were not necessarily simple plays, especially McKinnon, but being in PPR leagues both plays worked out.

With options likes Davante Adams, Chris Hogan, and Kelvin Benjamin, I chose Diggs for his target probability; he saw 8.0 targets on Thursday night and caught all eight. Diggs did not accumulate much yardage, but his eight grabs posted double-digit fantasy points and saved me.

Like Diggs, McKinnon was a tougher choice with options like Ryan Matthews (OUT) and Rob Kelley (only 8 targets all season) available, and his five catches on six targets and touchdown reception came up big. I may still roll out Kelley, but I am sitting in a much better position with McKinnons 16.50 fantasy points.

Looking at more lineup help for this week, with Jordan Reed OUT this Sunday I will be inserted tight end Vernon Davis. Even with Reed in the lineup, Davis has managed to make some noise and become fantasy relevant even as the number two tight end. Since week 6, Davis has averaged 3.5 receptions and 59 yards (this includes a week 11 donut). With Reed in the lineup he’s a low end TE2, but this Sunday Davis should be considered a TE1.

With the lack of consistency for tight ends like the Packers Jared Cook (2 targets last week) and the Rams Lance Kendricks (4 times this season with two or fewer receptions), I am rolling with the Niners Vance McDonald. He’s not a huge upgrade over the other two this week, but his five previous starts with no fewer than six targets leading and recent four game run of 3.5 receptions and 60 yards per game average with two touchdowns make him a much safer play this week. He’ll get the Bears this week who have done a pretty good job versus opposing tight ends, but they have surrendered 5 touchdowns (tied for 5th most) making McDonald a nice red-zone threat this week.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 16th, 2016

Friday

Week 2: Friday Football Fixx

After one week of action, there's plenty of football discussion at the local employment water-cooler. I was able to catch quite a bit of the action from week one and here's what I see for this Sunday, so if you are ready let's get into it....

Week 2 presents quite a few savory matchups for fantasy owners to salivate over. If you are looking for fantasy friendly matchups and need help under center, the Bronco's second year quarterback Trevor Siemian wasn't spectacular in week one, but with a healthy match-up against a suspect Colts secondary (340 yards passing allowed in week 1), he has the weapons to product top-10 numbers in week 2.

After facing a very tough and stingy Seahawks defense (81 rushing yards allowed in week 1), the Dolphins running back Arian Foster should fare much better this Sunday. Foster touched the ball 16 times for more than 100 total yards last week. Against the Patriots (4.8 yards allowed per carry) this Sunday he's likely to see as many, if not more chances and should easily better his numbers from a week ago. Fantasy owners can even expect the versatile Foster to add a score.

Last week the Giants wide receiver Victor Cruz (4 receptions on 4 targets) made his long awaited return to the field of action against the Cowboys. His performance may have been less than stellar, but his familiar return to the end zone could be an indication of what's to come. This week the Giants will play host to a Saints team that was torched and burned last Sunday by a Raiders offense that accounted for 486 yards of offense, including 319 yards in the air and one score. Cruz and company will be looking to cash in big this week; expect the salsa-man to do his dance again.

After a big week one performance in the Big Easy, the Raiders second year receiver Amari Cooper (6 rec/137-yards in week 1) is looking for another big Sunday with a tasty matchup against the Falcons this Sunday. The birds will be traveling to the Black Hole on Sunday and after their secondary was torched for 5 pass plays of 20 yards or more in week 1, Cooper and company will be looking for the long ball again this week.

Last on my Friday list is Eagles running back Ryan Matthews. His numbers weren't huge in week one, but he did manage a solid fantasy Sunday with 77 yards and a score. While his total out-put wasn't anything to scream about fantasy owners should be excited with his 22 carries, a sure sign he is the feature runner in the Eagles ground game. This Monday night Matthews could find quite a few holes in Bears run defense (129 yards rushing allowed in week 1).

These are my Friday Fixx plays I like for week 2.

That's my take

~David G. Ortega

MURRAY AND MCCOY: NEW PLACES, SAME FACES?

August 28th 2015

Friday

Murray and McCoy: New Places, Same Faces?

I mentioned yesterday some of the running backs I would be targeting in my upcoming PPR draft and while these two (DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy) obvious targets were not mentioned, they are not being overlooked.

McCoy and Murray may be in new places for the 2015 season, but I still very much think these two dynamic runners are the same ball-carriers from a year ago. That being said, while the talent may still exist their situations set up for very likely different outcomes from a year ago.

Murray (450 touches in 2014) is not likely to see as heavy a load as he did in Dallas last season with the likes of Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles sharing the same sideline. History is also against him to repeat his 2014 performance. I think Murray will perform well in Philly and should have a good season, but I am not expecing him to finish 2015 as the number two fantasy stud; top 10 is more in line. With his current value in drafts (that I am seeing) making him a late first or early second round pick, his price may be too high for me to reach.

McCoy would seem to have greater appeal (to me), in a situation where he is a lock to be the workhorse. But the Bills questionable line and questionable offense, together with McCoy's recent injury status may make him appear to be a bit of a risky early pick. Regardless, I still like McCoy to also finish in the top 10 this season. Once he returns to the field, he could easily post his third consecutive 300-plus carry season, and surpass his 5 rushing touchdowns of a year ago.

Both these cats can scat with the best and have shown in the past the ability to perform at the highest of levels, but when stacking up the two head-to-head this season, based on what they bring to the table and where they'll be setting up their plates, my money is on Shady.

That's just my take.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Sunday Edition
October 28th, 2012  








David’s Daily Digest

Fantasy Notes & Predictions

Week 8 Faves

Big Ben (Roethlisberger) is facing the leagues’ worst pass defense and he has arguably the fastest man in football (Mike Wallace) lining up out wide. Big Ben has had a couple of big games this season and should produce another 3-touchdown and 300 yard game today.

The Broncos don’t get it on until the night cap with the Saints and at that time quarterback Peyton Manning could be lining up under center on his way to a huge evening. The Saints allow the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and tonight they and Peyton should not disappoint. Manning should be good for 275 yards passing and three scores.

The Jaguars defense has just been bad this season and with wide receiver Jordy Nelson on the sideline, Randall Cobb should step in big today. The Jaguars have the 24th ranked pass defense and Cobb and Rodgers should take advantage. Cobb has been in play the past several week, expect more of the same; 9 receptions, 120 yards receiving and a score.

The Chargers running back Ryan Matthews has a nice matchup today on the road facing the Browns 24th ranked run defense. The Chargers offense has been a little erratic this season, so expect Rivers and company to play more ball control with Matthews; 100-yards on the ground with a touchdown for Ryan should be the ticket.

The Raiders running back Darren McFadden has been waiting to breakout this season and today’s matchup with the Chiefs could be the game. The Chiefs defense allows the 6th most fantasy points to running backs and gives up 125 yards rushing per game. Run-DMC should net his second 100-yard game this season with a couple of scores.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: SFFL WEEK 8

Saturday Edition
October 28TH, 2012  

Suicide Fantasy Football

Week 8

Before looking ahead to Sunday, here’s a quick look back at week 7. It’s been a steady year thus far, with my team averaging 116 points per week, but in week 7 we fell off the pace a bit scoring just 108 points.

The highlight of my week 7 lineup was undoubtedly the Jackson 2. Running back Fred Jackson was solid last week against the Titans totaling 26 fantasy points which was powered by his 8 receptions a touchdown and 120 yards from scrimmage. The other Jackson, Bucs receiver Vincent Jackson was even greater with 7 receptions for 216 yards and a score.

If my team is going to make any moves this week, I’ll need efforts like this from more than just two players, so let’s take a look at who I am turning to in week 8.

My Line-up

The season is long and there are still plenty of weeks to play, but after falling a couple of spots last week, it’s time to make a big jump up the board and get back into this race. Here’s a look at my lineup for week 8 and the players that will get the job done;

Quarterback:
This week under center it will be “Big Ben” Roethlisberger against the Redskins. Big Ben has faced two teams ranked 25th or higher against the pass and he’s averaged 373 yards passing with 5 touchdowns and just one pick. The Redskins rank 32 versus the pass and allow the 6th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Running Backs:
I am saddling up with a couple of horses that should run pretty ragged this Sunday. The first is Ryan Matthews; the Chargers ball carrier is looking at the league’s 25th ranked run defense (Browns) that allows the 13th most fantasy points to opposing backs. The Chargers are coming off a horrid collapse on Monday night in week 6; they got away from the run and it hurt them. This week lots of Matthews should lead to a road win.

My other tailback for Sunday is LeSean McCoy versus the Falcons. The Eagles running back currently ranks 16th in fantasy scoring among ball carriers. Fantasy owners are waiting for the real “Slim Shady” McCoy to arrive and this week could be the week. The Falcons defense ranks 28th against the run, allowing seven rushing touchdowns this season, and giving up the 12th most fantasy points to running backs. Look for Shady to break loose this Sunday.

Wide Receivers:
Leading the good hands people in week 8 is the Packers “Mr. Excitement” wide receiver Randall Cobb. With Jennings out, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has had to call on his other weapons to step up and over the past several weeks Cobb has been one to answer that call. Since week 5 Cobb leads the team in receptions (19-tied) and receiving yards (273). This week Cobb should enjoy more success against a Jaguars defense that ranks 24th against the pass.

Also lining up out wide this week is wide receiver Antonio Brown. It only makes sense if Big Ben is going to have a big Sunday, than his targets are in line to do the same. With Wallace always a threat to go deep on the other side, Brown has been seeing lots of opportunities averaging better than 9 targets per contest. The Redskins give up the most fantasy points to receivers; Sunday should be a very good day for Brown.

Tight End:
The Browns defense is ranked 26th against the pass this season which should spell good news for Chargers tight end Antonio Gates. The Brown may only allow the 8th fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, but Gates is no ordinary tight end. He is coming off his best performance of the season, scoring twice in week 6 against the Broncos, and should be a focal point in the Chargers passing attack.

Place Kicker:
This week I am entrusting the foot of Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski. On the road the Raiders offense could stall in the red zone and Janikowski has the leg to hit it from anywhere. I am expecting at least three field goals on Sunday.

Team Defense:
The Chargers defense has not been much to get too excited about this season ranked 13th overall, but facing a rookie quarterback is always a nice prospect. The Chargers defense ranks 17th in fantasy scoring with 10 sacks, 7 interceptions, and 6 fumble recoveries this season. Sunday they will look to improve upon these numbers.


These are my picks for week 8.


By David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Edition

October 16th, 2012 

David's Daily Digest

The Week in Review

Breaking Down my Week 6 Picks

Well, whoever said making fantasy player picks was easy must also have some beach front property in Wyoming to sell. It’s definitely not down to a science, because if it is I need to sign up for the class. Taking a look back at my picks from week 6, ouch!

There were definitely a few misses, but I think I might have saved a little face with some good calls. Every week I am going to start taking a look back at the just completed week and break down my picks and see how I did. So before I start handing out cigars or patting myself on the back, lets start with;

 My Week 6 Duds

It looks like the Giants tight end Martellus Bennett is still in need of a little mending. Not able to cash in on a generous 49ers secondary (4 touchdowns allowed to tight ends this season) Bennett finished Sunday with just one catch for 9 yards.

In the desert quarterback Kevin Kolb was just frustrating to watch, often holding the ball too long and taking way too many hits and sacks. Kolb made the Bills defense look perennial exiting the game early with just 128 yards passing, one touchdown and one pick, He was also sacked five times and as a result of all the punishment he took, he will now be sidelined at least six weeks.

Running back Trent Richardson was a big disappointment on Sunday facing the Bengals. An injury forced him out early with just 37 yards on the ground and it was his back-up Montario Hardesty who enjoyed success rushing for 56 yards with a score.

The 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree pulled a disappearing act on Sunday against the Giants for fantasy owners. The team’s leading receiver finished the game with just three catches for 26 yards.

Hardly a dud, but if not for his touchdown grab on Monday night Demaryrius Thomas fantasy owners would be very upset with his week 6 output. Clearly the Chargers were intent on not letting Thomas break loose, but he did manage to find the end zone. Expect better days and more often.

Others I missed on, the Texans were completely blitzed by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers passing game. After falling so far behind, Matt Schaub and the offense really struggled against the Packers pass rush, tight end Owen Daniels was a miserable 3 catches for 46 yards. Running back Reggie Bush finished his day with just 17 yards rushing, but he did have 5 grabs for 44 yards.

While we can’t always be right, it is nice to hit the nail on the head with some of my picks each week;

My Week 6 Studs

On Monday night the new king of comeback, quarterback Peyton Manning did not disappoint with three second half touchdowns and finishing the game with over 300 yards passing. Manning started slowly, although he was completing a high percentage of passes in the first half, but clearly he rose to another level in the 2^nd half.

Quarterback Andy Dalton is the type of fantasy success you have to take with a grain of salt, take this past Sunday for instance. He’s goping to give you big numbers from time to time, 381 yards passing and three touchdowns, but they often come at a cost (three interceptions). For the season Dalton has 12 touchdown passes, but he also has 9 picks; you take the bad with the good.

Manning was the only star on Monday night and it could have been much bigger if not for some thick yard-line paint around the 35 yard line. The Broncos wide receiver Eric Decker finished the night with 6 grabs for 98 yards and a score, but just imagine how much bigger his game could have been had he not been tackled by the 35 yard line (yes that is by, not at). As long as Thomas lines up on the other side, Decker is going to see more games like this.

The Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford appears to going through some growing pains this season as he struggles to recapture some of last years’ lightning in a bottle. He wasn’t all bad on Sunday, but he did start painfully slow. Stafford struggled early, but finished mightily passing for 311 yards, tossing one score and running for another. If he can just get out of the gate, he’s got a chance to put together some big games.

The Raiders running back Darren McFadden was a workhorse on Sunday toting the rock 27 times and grabbing three more passes. Run-DMC finished Sunday with 98 total yards and a score, although he did have a fumble. If the Raiders stick to this plan, he’s going to have some big games down the road.

Fantasy owners will be hoping for much better games than this, but running back LeSean McCoy managed to save a bad day with a touchdown grab to go with this 48 total yards (22 rushing, 26 receiving) of offense. And for those in PPR his seven receptions were a nice touch.

It was not a big Monday night for the Chargers running back Ryan Matthews, although maybe if it had been the games; outcome would have been different. Matthews finished the night with 74 yards rushing (on 22 carries) and 19 receiving. Like McCoy and Bush, Matthews four catches may make him a very attractive option in PPR leagues.

By David Ortega