FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 12th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

Who Are You Starting & Sitting

A lot of games on the slate today for Sunday Week 10 and with fantasy playoffs fast approaching it begs the obvious question, who are you starting and sitting today?

GB @ CHI

The Bears have a pretty good defense, so I am not expecting much from the Packers offense. I am sitting Ty Montgomery today. With Aaron Jones having earned the starting backfield duties, Montgomery will be limited. Since returning from injury Montgomery is averaging just 7.3 touches per game.

CLE @ DET

The Browns do a pretty good job against the run and the Lions don’t run the ball well, so I am starting Marvin Jones Jr. The Lions will once again have to rely on Stafford and the pass and Jones (No.15 fantasy WR in PPR) has been trending upward for weeks now.

PIT @ IND

With Martavis Bryant back and the emergence of JuJu Smith-Schuster, I am starting Big Ben today. He’ll be a JuJu-Bee special today against the Colts!

LAC @ JAX

The Jags are tough against the pass and while I might not be sitting Keenan Allen today (but not expecting a lot), I am starting running back Melvin Gordon. Gordon is the No.5 fantasy RB in PPR and the Jags yield a lot of yards on the ground (125 yds/game).

NO @ BUF

The Saints have been good this season, but traditionally they do not travel well. That being the case here, they will have a tough matchup against a good Bills defense. While I’d be nervous starting any of the Saints, I am starting running back Alvin Kamara. He’ll see his usual workload today and I love his contributions in the pass game; 37 receptions this season.

NYJ @ TB

With a road game today, I am starting Jets wide receiver Robby Anderson against a terrible Bucs defense. Anderson has been trending in the right direction and the Bucs allow the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

MIN @ WASH

With Redskins tight end Jordan Reed on the shelf for Sunday, I am starting Vernon Davis. I am not expecting a big output, but he should provide decent numbers for owners in a bind today.

CIN @ TEN

After five straight games with less than 60 rushing yards, I am sitting Titans running back DeMarco Murray. Murray has been dinged up most of the season. He doesn’t look right, he’s not producing, and right now he’s too risky to trust.

HOU @ LAR

With the Rams rolling and the offense playing well this season, I am starting quarterback Jared Goff. The 2nd year passer has played very well this season and I love this matchup against the Texans at home. Over the past two weeks, the Texans secondary has been toasted for 760 yards passing and 6 touchdowns.

DAL @ ATL

This game is being forecasted as a potential shootout and along with Julio Jones, I will be starting Falcons wide receiver Mohamed Sanu. The Cowboys have allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing receivers and with a lot of attention focused on Julio, I think Sanu sneaks one in.

NYG @ SF

With a road matchup today with the Niners, I am starting Giants running back Orleans Darkwa against one of the league’s worst run defenses (allow 135.6 yards/game). I expect to see Darkwa receive a heavy workload and have success today.

NE @ DEN

The Broncos offense has struggled mightily for several weeks now, but tonight against the Patriots I am starting wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. The Broncos receiver is coming off a 8/70/1 stat line; he’ll the main focal point of the pass game against secondary that has allowed the 5th most receptions and 3rd most receiving yards to opposing receivers.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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November 5th 2017

Sunday evening Edition

My Perfect Lineup Week 9

(NFL.com)

Week 9 has begun and it’s time to roll out my Perfect Lineup for this Sunday, but first let’s see how my team looked last week. From the top to the bottom, here’s what we did; QB-Wentz (finished 8th in PPR scoring), RB-Bell (finished 17th), RB-Howard (15th), WR-Green (finished 22nd), WR-Allen (32nd), TE-Gronkowski (4th), PK-Elliott (11th), and D/ST-Bengals (8th). Overall it was not a great day.

Looking ahead, here we go with week 9;

QB-Drew Brees; you have to love Brees at home where he is always tough and the Bucs have big problems this season versus the pass.

RB-Adrian Peterson; the Cards are going to have to become a run first team and we’ve seen what Peterson can do. The Niners are not good against the run, a big day for Peterson awaits.

RB-DeMarco Murray; the Titans running back has had extra time to heal up coming off the bye and the Ravens defense has not been shut down against the run. Murray has only one 100-yard game this season, will be looking for his 2nd today.

WR-Dez Bryant; the matchup today with the Chiefs could be a high scoring affair. Even with Elliott in the lineup today, I think Dez is going to be involved in the plan to attack a secondary that has struggled mightily this season.

WR-Michael Thomas; just going to ride the coattails of Drew Brees with this one. Thomas is the team’s leading receiver and if Brees has a big game, there’s a good chance he’ll be a big part.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end is coming off a big game, but has also emerged as a big part of the offense. This could be another big day for Doyle.

PK-Harrison Butker; the Chiefs-Cowboys today, could be a shootout. I happen to think the Chiefs may stumble a couple of times in the red-zone today, allow a few extra opportunities for Butker.

D/ST-Cardinals; the Niners appear to be in rebuild, no Pierre Garcon, questions in the backfield, and CJ Beathard has to know, he’s not the guy. Although it’s a road game for the Cards, I like to defense to have a big game today.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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November 4th 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Week 9 Strong Plays

Looking over Sunday’s matchup, here’s a quick rundown of a few of the lineups I am liking very much;

Jared Goff, QB;

I’m not expecting big numbers here, but I do like Goff’s matchup against the Giants. Goff has been steady this season, but not spectacular, and the Giants defense has not been good versus quarterbacks; allow 6th mos fantasy points. This could be a good bounce back week for Goff

DeMarco Murray, RB;

It has not been Murray’s year this season, as the Titan’s running back has only one 100-yard rushing game this season. Fortunately for Murray and the Titans, this week’s opponent is the Ravens; have allowed 2nd most rushing yards this season.

Devin Funchess, WR;

With Kelvin Benjamin shipped off to Buffalo, the Panthers receiver Devin Funchess is in line for a larger role and more targets this Sunday. The Falcons have been pretty good against receivers this season, but I like Funchess and believe this is an opportunity for him to step up and separate.

Jack Doyle, TE;

The Colts tight end is coming off a huge Sunday last week (12 receptions, 121 yards, and a score) and I am feeling good about his chances to continue the momentum against the Texans; allow 6th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega

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October 4th, 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 4 Sunday Lineup Killers

Week 4 was more like Black Sunday for many fantasy owners, as a lot of big names just didn't show up. Leading the way of the demise was the Falcons Matt Ryan. This was his second consecutive sub-par performance. In Week 3 he threw three picks and here in week 4 Ryan finished as the No.27 fantasy QB; not what owners signed up for when they drafted him as the No.4/5 QB.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan: 242 pa yds, 1 td, 2 int

Derek Carr: 143 pa yds, 1 td

Matthew Stafford: 209 pa yds, 0 tds

Ben Roethlisberger: 216 pa yds, 1 td, 1 int

It's simple in New England, if running back Mike Gillislee doesn't find the endzone he's going to crush your fantasy lineup. Since his big breakout Week 1 three-touchdown performance, he's only scored in double digits once, back in week 2. The Patriots have been caught up in some high scoring matchups, but they do most of their damage through the air. Gillislee's totals for Week 4, 49 rushing yards. That's not going to help too many fantasy owners going forward

Running backs

Jonathan Stewart: 68 ru yds, 1 Fum

Mike Gillislee: 49 ru yds

DeMarco Murray: 31 ru yds, 2 rec, 4 rec yds

Jay Ajayi: 46 ru yds, 8-yd rec

This is the second consecutive sub-par week and the third in four games for wide receiver Martavis Bryant. He's only topped 50 yards once this season and has had no more than 3 receptions in any game this season. I'm sure Martavis, along with fantasy owners hope he'll break this trend soon, but don't look for it this week. Next up for Bryant is Jacksonville and their No.1 passing defense.

Wide Receivers

Martavis Bryant: 3 rec, 48 rec yds

Rishard Matthews: 3 rec, 49 rec yds

Adam Thielen:5 rec, 59 rec yds, 1 Fum

It's time to put the Chargers tight end Antonio Gates on the shelf. He's definitely fallen down the pecking order behind the trio of Chargers receivers; Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, and Travis Benjamin. Gates may bounce back here and there , but with just 3 catches for 18 yards in Week 4 (the No.28 fantasy TE) he can no longer be trusted as a fantasy starter.

Tight Ends

Delanie Walker: 3 rec, 51 rec yds

Coby Fleener: 2 rec, 21 rec yds

Jack Doyle: 5 rec, 27 rec yds

Antonio Gates: 3 rec, 18 rec yds

That’s My Take

~David Ortega

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September 23rd 2017

Saturday Late Night Edition

Who are you Starting & Sitting (Week 3)

Start or Sit

(Sunday’s Games)

Javorius Allen (start) Just like last week, Buck Allen is a start for Week 3 against the Jaguars. He may not do too much treading on the ground, but his pass catching skills will help his value this week. Allen is expected to pick up the load if running back Terrance West is limited or slowed.

Tyrod Taylor (sit) The Bills quarterback has an awful matchup this week facing the Broncos No Fly Zone defense. The Denver defense hasn’t been exactly seal tight, but they seen some pretty good skill position players at the receiver spot (like Dez Bryant and Keenan Allen), something Taylor is lacking. Sit the Bills quarterback.

Kelvin Benjamin (start) The Saints are in town and that means lots of yards all around. The Saints have allowed an avalanche of yards passing and rushing in their first two games. Time for Benjamin owners to reap the rewards of this matchup. Start the Panthers wide out.

Jordan Howard (sit) The Bears starting running back is off to a slow start this season and things may not get any better on Sunday. Howard will line up against the Steelers 8th ranked run defense that allow just 3.3 yards per tote. Sit him.

Ameer Abdullah (start) In what should be a matchup filled with a lot of points on both sides, I really like Abdullah to see a fair amount of carries and overall touches in this matchup. The Falcons allow 5.4 yards per carry, start Abdullah.

Jack Doyle (start) The Colts tight end is the No.13 fantasy TE currently. With a matchup against the Browns defense that’s allowed the most receptions and 3rd most receiving yards to opposing tight ends, expect Doyle to improve his ranking.

Jacquizz Rodgers (sit) The Vikings defense allows the 6th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs and overall they are ranked 11th against the run allowing just 3.1 yards per carry. I don’t like Rodgers in this matchup, sit him.

Mike Gillislee (start) The Patriots running back played more of a featured role last week with 18 carries and a score. The Texans will be tested in the air by quarterback Tom Brady and his bunch, which should open up a few running lanes for Gillislee. He’s sure to get one of those easy scores as well.

Jermaine Kearse (start) The Jets receiver has been busy through two weeks, ranked as the No.7 fantasy WR. Kearse has been targeted 14 times in two games and figures to see a steady diet of targets on Sunday against the Fins; a defense that’s allowed a 73% efficiency rate for opposing receivers.

Brandon Marshall (sit) The Giants number 3 receiver has been non-existent through two weeks and shouldn’t be trusted at this point. Marshall has caught just two passes and looks completely out of sync with quarterback Eli Manning right now. Sit him.

Derrick Henry (start) Let me start with, sit DeMarco Murray. The writing's on the wall for this one anyway. Even if Murray is active, he is likely to play second fiddle. Henry ran like a beast last week totaling 92 yards on the ground and he should get the Lionshare Sunday against the Seahawks 23rd ranked run defense that allows 5.2 yards per carry.

Jeremy Hill (sit) The team axed their Offensive Coordinator and head Coach Marvin Lewis has to be feeling the heat. Expect a lot of changes, including the usage of or lack of usage for running back Jeremy Hill. There are whispers this week we could see more of the rookie running back Joe Mixon. Hill’s a risky play, pass on him this week.

Hunter Henry (start) The Chargers tight end finally got some work in week 2 and turned in a nice stat line of 7/80/0. Henry caught all seven of his targets last week and could be just as busy Sunday against a Chiefs defense that’s allowed the 6th most receiving yards against opposing tight ends. Start Henry.

Samaje Perine (start) Starter Rob Kelley has been ruled out, so the rookie will get the nod. Start him. The Raiders are ranked 19th versus the run, allowing 4.8 yards per carry. Perine should get plenty of run in the backfield Sunday night.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 20th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

My Week 3 RB Rankings (PPR)

1. Le’Veon Bell

2. Kareem Hunt

3. Jay Ajayi

4. Devonta Freeman

5. Ezekiel Elliott

6. Melvin Gordon

7. Todd Gurley

8. Ty Montgomery

9. Marshawn Lynch

10. LeSean McCoy

11. Dalvin Cook

12. Leonard Fournette

13. Carlos Hyde

14. CJ Anderson

15. Lamar Miller

16. Mike Gillislee

17. Isaiah Crowell

18. Javorius Allen

19. Jonathan Stewart

20. Tarik Cohen

21. Ameer Abdullah

22. Derrick Henry

23. Christian McCaffrey

24. Chris Carson

25. Jacquizz Rodgers

26. Mark Ingram

27. Frank Gore

28. Tevin Coleman

29. Chris Thompson

30. James White

27 carries last week. That’s all you have to say. He may not just yet be all the way back to game shape, but the Steelers appear determined to work running back Le’Veon Bell back into shape. That’s enough for me to believe, he’s going to get the volume and it’s only a matter of time before he breaks out huge.

I’ve moved Kareem Hunt up to the No.2 spot. After two weeks he’s leading all fantasy scoring, standard, PPR, he’s been the man. And I don’t believe the Chargers defense will be able to shout him down this week, especially after giving up 122 yards rushing to Jay Ajayi (which is why he’s near the top this week).

As I mentioned, I like AJayi after a big first week and his week 3 matchup against the Jets should rendered similar results.

The Ravens may be without running back Terrance West this week, dealing with a soft-tissue injury; no problem. They still have the No.13 fantasy (PPR) running back in Javorius Allen. Allen, No.18 on my list has played extremely well through the first two weeks of the season and with the prospect of West out, he could be in line for a bigger workload this Sunday.

With DeMarco Murray banged up this week, Titans running back Derrick Henry figures to carry the load this week. It’s a tough draw facing the Seahawks, but Henry is more than up to the task after totaling 92 yards on 14 carries last Sunday against the Jaguars. This week he’ll test a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 7th most rushing yards through two weeks.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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September 13th 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

My Week 2 RB Rankings (PPR)

1. Le’Veon Bell

2. LeSean McCoy

3. Leonard Fournette

4. Ezekiel Elliott

5. Melvin Gordon

6. Jay Ajayi

7. Devonta Freeman

8. Kareem Hunt

9. Marshawn Lynch

10. Todd Gurley

11. Ty Montgomery

12. DeMarco Murray

13. Dalvin Cook

14. Jordan Howard

15. Mark Ingram

16. Christian McCaffrey

17. CJ Anderson

18. Isaiah Crowell

19. Lamar Miller

20. Carlos Hyde

21. Bilal Powell

22. Terrance West

23. Jacquizz Rodgers

24. Ameer Abdullah

25. Jonathan Stewart

26. James White

27. Mike Gillislee

28. Tevin Coleman

29. Tarik Cohen

30. Javorius Allen

Although he struggled in his first week back, I have to put Bell at the top of my rankings for Week 2. He’ll be featured in the short-passing game as well as the run game this Sunday against the Vikings, so what he’ll lack on the ground he will more than make up in the air.

I’ve moved the rookie Leonard Fournette way up my rankings this week. He’ll face a Titans defense that yielded 76 yards rushing (on 18 carries) to Marshawn Lynch a week ago, but Fournette will get more than just 18 chances.

I’m going to buy into the Chiefs rookie running back Kareem Hunt this week, but I’m not going overboard. I have him ranked 9th this week, going against a pretty good Eagles front, he’s a dual threat and will stay productive out of the backfield.

I’ve dropped DeMarco Murray a few slots; not thrilled with his matchup this week against the Jaguars defense. This one will be close throughout, so Murray should see even touches to salvage the day.

The Saints and Patriots could be locked up in a shootout this Sunday and while it’s hard to figure who’s going to see the majority of snaps, I favor Mark Ingram (ranked 15th this week). The Saints rookie Alvin Kamara actually saw more snaps in the backfield than Ingram did last week, but the veteran was considerably more productive; even with Adrian Peterson’s presence I expect Ingram to lead the way.

I have said before that I like Jamaal Charles over CJ Anderson, but until the Broncos coaching staff commits to giving JC an extended look, Anderson will carry the reigns. Anderson was successful in week 1 totaling 81 yards on the ground on 20 carries and could see similar work this week. Charles will have to be patient.

Lastly, a notable insertion at the 23rd spot is Buccaneers running back Jacquizz Rodgers. Last season when Doug Martin went down, Rodgers was a strong fill-in averaging better than 4 yards per carry. He’ll be at home this week against the Bears and should see plenty of opportunity.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

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August 9th, 2017

Wednesday Night Edition

Draft Watch: Eyeing the Backfield

In this year’s draft, like most from past fantasy seasons, there are your notable stud running backs (DJ, Bell, Zeke, & Shady) that everyone will target. They are no secret and if you have a high draft slot you’ll be in the market to make a grab.

You’ll hear this alot and I’ll say it here as well, when drafting beyond the obvious picks what you should be looking for in your draft is “value.” It’s not just who you take, but when you take them. Reaching too early can cost you a lot of value at the top and reaching too late you’ll miss out on those players that will pay huge dividends throughout the season.

After the first round (in the early rounds), running backs that are not too early to reach for in my opinion are DeMarco Murray (Titans), Jay Ajayi (Dolphins), Jordan Howard (Bears), Todd Gurley (Rams), and Leonard Fournette (Jaguars). With this group, what I like best about them is their potential volume. None have a real threat in the backfield to steal their workload. Ajayi looks very appealing with the recent change at quarterback and Fournette is expected to be a workhorse.

Once you hit the mid-rounds (round 4 and on), in particular in PPR formats, pass catching running backs that I like and should reap plenty of rewards are Danny Woodhead (Ravens), Ty Montgomery (Packers), Ameer Abdullah (Lions), Paul Perkins (Giants), and Christian McCaffrey (Panthers). I see most of these guys going in the 5th and 6th rounds as early RB3 with some potential as an RB2. I believe Woodhead could set the bar for receptions this season and even as a rookie I believe McCaffrey could make a run at 65 to 70 catches.

The late round fliers that will come cheap and could pay-off big in my estimation are running backs Theo Riddick (Lions), Duke Johnson (Browns), Giovani Bernard (Bengals), and James White (Patriots). As late as these guys could be had, even with only 40-45 catches, they are a great value as a flex options and bye week fills.

A couple of names that are being undervalued that owners should be able to snag at a great price are the Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart (ADP 94.3), Ravens running back Terrance West (ADP 83), and Jets running back Matt Forte (ADP 105.7). Now these guys may not win your league, but they are low risk with potential.

That’s my take.

~David Ortega