Showing posts with label Jay Ajayi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jay Ajayi. Show all posts

Thursday, October 26, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID' DAILY DIGEST

October 26th 2017
Thursday Evening Edition







Thursday’s Twitter Takes


It's never just about the matchup, but it's always about the game. Maybe tonight's contest isn't a battle between two Titans, but it can still offer a lot of excitement, thrills, and surprises; at least we can hope for it. It's Thursday night, what else are you going to do? Just sit back, enjoy the NFL action and hope we didn't jsut waste three hours of our lives.


"Tonight's matchup could be the snoozefest of the season, both offenses rank among worst; BAL-31, Mia-32" by @FantsySprtsHome

Then again, we thought that was the case when the Rams and Niners played a few weeks back. While it may have a lot of tendencies leaning toward a lot scoring affair, there are plenty of storylines to suggest we could be in for a few surprises.

"Ravens and Flacco could be in for long night against Phins D (ranked 10th total yards)" by @ FantsySprtsHome

Dolphins have been playing well this season, but the Ravens are at home and this could be just the type of setting to kickstart Flacco and company. But I’m not holding my breath.

"With Matt Moore under center, Stills could be a favorite play tonight. He's coming off a big game last Sunday" by @FantsySprtsHome

Don’t be surprised to see a rejuvenated and animated Moore tonight. He’s got a great opportunity to seize control of the starting gig in Miami, nothing that a big game couldn’t help cement maybe.

"Phins D pretty good, but trouble covering the backs could open up play for both Buck Allen tonight." by @FantsySprtsHome

I expect Buck to be very busy in the short passing game, as well as tight end Ben Watson. Flacco may not throw for a ton, but he could complete a lot of passes. Get out your PPR calculator.

"Jay Ajayi may be the only strong & must-play tonight; Ravens D last in the league allowing 145-yds/gm!" by @FantsySprtsHome

The Ravens D has just struggled awful this season against the run and this would be the type of game the Dolphins would need out of Ajayi, lots of carries and lots of yards; could open some play-action and allow Moore to take a few shots downfield.

That's My Take.

~David Ortega





Friday, October 6, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 6th 2017
Friday Late Night Edition






What I Learned from Week 4

(Quick Takes) 

Cutler and Dolphins offense in trouble.
After watching their awful performance in Week 4 against the Saints, you get the sense the Dolphins offense is in really trouble if things don't start clicking quick. Cutler was pulled out of retirement because he knew the offense and had familiarity with the system. With receivers like Jarvis Landry and Devante Parker and running back Jay Ajayi, this team wasn't necessarily expected to be better, but should have been just as good. So far this has not been the case and this week they are home with Tennessee rolling into town. Last week the Titans were wiped out by the Texans surrendering 57 points. If the Dolphins are going to get things right, if fantasy owners are going to be able to trust players like Ajayi, Landry, and Parker, this is the week to make it all happen.

Texans have something special brewing.
I've been talking this up all week and if you haven't heard me, you just haven't been listening. Yes, it's a little early to making such bold statements about Texans rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson, but the kid is playing special. Through 4 games he's been special. Watson is the No.7 fantasy QB, ahead of names like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Marcus Mariota. He's 2-1 as a starter, making plays, throwing for 7 touchdowns, while running for 2 more. He's a rookie, so mistakes will come, but the resiliency this kid has already shown, he's making me a believer every Sunday.

Vikings receivers need Sam Bradford
When the season opened, back in week one the Vikings offense and passing game burst onto the scene with Bradford and his talented pass catchers leading the way. Diggs (No.1 in PPR) and Thielen (No.13 in PPR) are still among the top pass receiving fantasy options this season, but their numbers tailed off a bit last week and fantasy owners have to be getting the sense they really need Bradford back. If these two and tight end Kyle Rudolph are going to run with the fantasy big dogs, they need their starting quarterback. Bradford knows the system well, he's efficient with the ball, and deadly accurate; their numbers get a bump when Sam plays.

Are the Falcons Smoke and Mirrors?
To put it simply, the Falcons are 3-1, but could easily be 1-3 after surviving week 1 & 3 scares against the Bears and Lions. Last season the Falcons were a dominate team, lighting up the scoreboard. This season seems different. The team is still averaging 26 points per game (ranks 6th in the league), but they are definitely doing it in different ways. Matt Ryan had elevated his play a year ago to elite status, but this season he's just the 22nd fantasy QB and as would be expected wide receiver Julio Jones is the No.25 fantasy WR (in PPR). These are fall below fantasy owner expectations. Are the Falcons as good as advertised and will Ryan's numbers eventually reflect or are they telling now and the worse is to come? We'll see.

Is something wrong with Big Ben?
Big Ben has never really been a Top-5 fantasy QB. Since 2011 he has only finished inside the Top-10 once, in 2013 when he was the No.5 fantasy QB. Despite the lack of top finishes, fantasy owners have to be frustrated with Roethlisberger's current No.21 ranking. In four games he's only topped 250 yards passing once, and has just two multiple touchdowns games; two games of two. These are not quite the fantasy numbers owners are looking for. Historically Big Ben has always played well at home versus the road, so even though it's Jacksonville up next owners are hoping playing at home this Sunday will help him to get things going.

The Giants run game stuck in reverse.
After four games, it's pretty apparent the Giants running is non-existent. The Giants are the 30th ranked run offense this season and their 3.2 yards per carry average ranks near the bottom of the league. The prime culprit for these poor numbers is running back Paul Perkins. He's averaging less than 2 yards per carry this season and has just 61 rushing yards through 4 games. A starter to begin the year, Perkins (ribs) who is likely sidelined this week has fallen off the fantasy map and running backs Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa will now try to resuscitate the Giants lifeless run game.

Cousins and offense starting to show something.
There's no doubt, had Terrelle Pryor hung onto that touchdown throw late in the game and the Redskins came out on top, the talk on Monday would have been look out for Washington. This was the second straight game for Cousins where he played very well. In a tough road matchup Cousins was 14 of 24 for 220 yards passing and two scores (which could have easily been three). He also added 38 yards on 7 scrambles/runs. If the Redskins can get some of their pieces like Jordan Reed and Robert Kelley, healthy and back soon, then lookout because these guys could start to heat up real fast.

That’s My Take

~David Ortega




Wednesday, October 4, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 4th, 2017
Wednesday Evening Edition





Week 4 Sunday Lineup Killers


Week 4 was more like Black Sunday for many fantasy owners, as a lot of big names just didn't show up. Leading the way of the demise was the Falcons Matt Ryan. This was his second consecutive sub-par performance. In Week 3 he threw three picks and here in week 4 Ryan finished as the No.27 fantasy QB; not what owners signed up for when they drafted him as the No.4/5 QB.

Quarterbacks
Matt Ryan: 242 pa yds, 1 td, 2 int
Derek Carr: 143 pa yds, 1 td
Matthew Stafford: 209 pa yds, 0 tds
Ben Roethlisberger: 216 pa yds, 1 td, 1 int

It's simple in New England, if running back Mike Gillislee doesn't find the endzone he's going to crush your fantasy lineup. Since his big breakout Week 1 three-touchdown performance, he's only scored in double digits once, back in week 2. The Patriots have been caught up in some high scoring matchups, but they do most of their damage through the air. Gillislee's totals for Week 4, 49 rushing yards. That's not going to help too many fantasy owners going forward

Running backs
Jonathan Stewart: 68 ru yds, 1 Fum
Mike Gillislee: 49 ru yds
DeMarco Murray: 31 ru yds, 2 rec, 4 rec yds
Jay Ajayi: 46 ru yds, 8-yd rec

This is the second consecutive sub-par week and the third in four games for wide receiver Martavis Bryant. He's only topped 50 yards once this season and has had no more than 3 receptions in any game this season. I'm sure Martavis, along with fantasy owners hope he'll break this trend soon, but don't look for it this week. Next up for Bryant is Jacksonville and their No.1 passing defense.

Wide Receivers
Martavis Bryant: 3 rec, 48 rec yds
Rishard Matthews: 3 rec, 49 rec yds
Adam Thielen:5 rec, 59 rec yds, 1 Fum

It's time to put the Chargers tight end Antonio Gates on the shelf. He's definitely fallen down the pecking order behind the trio of Chargers receivers; Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, and Travis Benjamin. Gates may bounce back here and there , but with just 3 catches for 18 yards in Week 4 (the No.28 fantasy TE) he can no longer be trusted as a fantasy starter.

Tight Ends
Delanie Walker: 3 rec, 51 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 2 rec, 21 rec yds
Jack Doyle: 5 rec, 27 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 3 rec, 18 rec yds

That’s My Take

~David Ortega




Wednesday, September 20, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 20th 2017
Wednesday Evening Edition







My Week 3 RB Rankings (PPR)











1. Le’Veon Bell
2. Kareem Hunt
3. Jay Ajayi
4. Devonta Freeman
5. Ezekiel Elliott
6. Melvin Gordon
7. Todd Gurley
8. Ty Montgomery
9. Marshawn Lynch
10. LeSean McCoy
11. Dalvin Cook
12. Leonard Fournette
13. Carlos Hyde
14. CJ Anderson
15. Lamar Miller
16. Mike Gillislee
17. Isaiah Crowell
18. Javorius Allen
19. Jonathan Stewart
20. Tarik Cohen
21. Ameer Abdullah
22. Derrick Henry
23. Christian McCaffrey
24. Chris Carson
25. Jacquizz Rodgers
26. Mark Ingram
27. Frank Gore
28. Tevin Coleman
29. Chris Thompson
30. James White

27 carries last week. That’s all you have to say. He may not just yet be all the way back to game shape, but the Steelers appear determined to work running back Le’Veon Bell back into shape. That’s enough for me to believe, he’s going to get the volume and it’s only a matter of time before he breaks out huge.

I’ve moved Kareem Hunt up to the No.2 spot. After two weeks he’s leading all fantasy scoring, standard, PPR, he’s been the man. And I don’t believe the Chargers defense will be able to shout him down this week, especially after giving up 122 yards rushing to Jay Ajayi (which is why he’s near the top this week).

As I mentioned, I like AJayi after a big first week and his week 3 matchup against the Jets should rendered similar results.

The Ravens may be without running back Terrance West this week, dealing with a soft-tissue injury; no problem. They still have the No.13 fantasy (PPR) running back in Javorius Allen. Allen, No.18 on my list has played extremely well through the first two weeks of the season and with the prospect of West out, he could be in line for a bigger workload this Sunday.

With DeMarco Murray banged up this week, Titans running back Derrick Henry figures to carry the load this week. It’s a tough draw facing the Seahawks, but Henry is more than up to the task after totaling 92 yards on 14 carries last Sunday against the Jaguars. This week he’ll test a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 7th most rushing yards through two weeks.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega




Wednesday, August 9, 2017

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

August 9th, 2017
Wednesday Night Edition






Draft Watch: Eyeing the Backfield

In this year’s draft, like most from past fantasy seasons, there are your notable stud running backs (DJ, Bell, Zeke, & Shady) that everyone will target. They are no secret and if you have a high draft slot you’ll be in the market to make a grab.

You’ll hear this alot and I’ll say it here as well, when drafting beyond the obvious picks what you should be looking for in your draft is “value.” It’s not just who you take, but when you take them. Reaching too early can cost you a lot of value at the top and reaching too late you’ll miss out on those players that will pay huge dividends throughout the season.

After the first round (in the early rounds), running backs that are not too early to reach for in my opinion are DeMarco Murray (Titans), Jay Ajayi (Dolphins), Jordan Howard (Bears), Todd Gurley (Rams), and Leonard Fournette (Jaguars). With this group, what I like best about them is their potential volume. None have a real threat in the backfield to steal their workload. Ajayi looks very appealing with the recent change at quarterback and Fournette is expected to be a workhorse.

Once you hit the mid-rounds (round 4 and on), in particular in PPR formats, pass catching running backs that I like and should reap plenty of rewards are Danny Woodhead (Ravens), Ty Montgomery (Packers), Ameer Abdullah (Lions), Paul Perkins (Giants), and Christian McCaffrey (Panthers). I see most of these guys going in the 5th and 6th rounds as early RB3 with some potential as an RB2. I believe Woodhead could set the bar for receptions this season and even as a rookie I believe McCaffrey could make a run at 65 to 70 catches.

The late round fliers that will come cheap and could pay-off big in my estimation are running backs Theo Riddick (Lions), Duke Johnson (Browns), Giovani Bernard (Bengals), and James White (Patriots). As late as these guys could be had, even with only 40-45 catches, they are a great value as a flex options and bye week fills.

A couple of names that are being undervalued that owners should be able to snag at a great price are the Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart (ADP 94.3), Ravens running back Terrance West (ADP 83), and Jets running back Matt Forte (ADP 105.7). Now these guys may not win your league, but they are low risk with potential.

That’s my take.


~David Ortega

Sunday, November 27, 2016

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST









November 27th, 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Week 12 Four Horsemen


Looking at today's matchups I have four fantasy plays (QB-RB-WR-TE) that I am particularly confident in that will produce solid fantasy numbers for owners. These are all must starts today;

Quarterback
The Saints quarterback Drew Brees (the number two fantasy quarterback this season) faces a tough matchup against the Rams today, but today he's enjoying home cooking. In the dome Brees has been spectacular passing for more than 300 yards in 4 of his 5 starts. His numbers at home; 366 yards passing/game, 17 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. Brees at home is gold.

Running Back
The Dolphins are home today to face the Niners and running back Jay Ajayi will have a chance to slice up a defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 1,576 yards rushing (most in the league). After two weeks without reaching at least 100 yards on the ground, Ajayi will be good for 100 yards and a touchdown today.

Wide Receiver
The Seahawks will be on the road today, but that won't matter to wide receiver Doug Baldwin. The Seahawks pass catcher has been efficient and effective the past three weeks catching 16 passes off 19 targets for 252 yards and three touchdowns. This week he draws a Bucs defense that allows the 4 most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including 14 receiving touchdowns (tied for 3rd most).

Tight End
And a surprise pick here is the Browns tight end Gary Barnidge. This may be the only risky play since Barnidge has been a great disappointment this season, as has the Browns offense all-together. Barnidge actually has a good matchup for PPR owners facing a Giants defense that struggles to cover opposing tightends; 55 receptions allowed (tied for 7th most) and 646 receiving yards allowed (tied for 10th most). This won't be a huge game, but it could be Barnidge's best game this season.

That's My Take.

~David G. Ortega



Sunday, October 23, 2016

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST








October 23rd, 2016
Sunday Morning edition

Sunday Morning Gametime: Week 7

"Who's In, Who's Out?"

The Raiders who face the Jaguars today, will be without Latavius Murray, so it looks like it will be a committe effort with the rookie backfield (Jalen Richard & Deandre Washington). The Jags up front are solid against the run allowing the 11th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs; so both are out for me today.

The Bills are saying there is a chance running back LeSean McCoy plays, even in a limited capacity it's tough to sit Shady. It's a risky move, but if Shady plays, he's in today against the Dolphins who are surrendering over 4.3 yards per carry this season.

The Chargers will have wide receiver Travis Benjamin today in a matchup that could very well end up a shootout. The Falcons are putting up ridiculous numbers in the passing game this season, which could force the Bolts to play a lot of catch up on Sunday. If Benjamin is playing, he's in.

The Dolphins will have a healthier Arian Foster in the backfield today, but with a tough matchup against the Bills and following running backs Jay Ajayi breakout performance in week 6, Foster's production will likely be limited. Until we see more from Foster going forward, he's out.

Quarterback Geno Smith will be making the start for the Jets today, and facing a Ravens defense that has been stingy against the run he will be tested in the air. With Geno in today (and not a likely fantasy start in any formats), we will most likely see him putting the ball up quite a bit today. Even with the change at quarterback, wide receiver Brandon Marshall (27 receptions, 433 yards receiving, 2 touchdowns this season) is in for me.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega