FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 30th 2017

Saturday Evening Edition

My Week 4 Injury Takes

RB-Carlos Hyde; the Niners running back is dealing with a hip injury and is a game-time call. He’s practiced all week in limited fashion, so there’s a chance he plays, but given the nature of the injury and the concern there seems to exist, Hyde could be a real risky play. I would lean with other options, if available.

WR-JJ Nelson; the Cards receiver is questionable, but expected to play on Sunday. After his donut last week with only three targets, he’ll be a risky play and hard to trust. I would prefer to see him back to 100 percent before inserting him back in my lineup.

WR-John Brown; the Cards are saying Brown will play, but after sitting two games he’s a wait and see option. I like him going forward and will watch him this week with a close eye.

WR-Julio Jones; the Falcons wide receiver was removed from the team’s injury report on Friday. It will be all systems go for the playmaking receiver on Sunday. He’s my top ranked wideout for week 4.

WR-Doug Baldwin; the Seahawks receiver returned to practice on Friday, but there’s no questions he still not back to 100 percent. He’s likely to play this week, but I’m not looking for much from Baldwin. I’ll be sitting him and hoping he gets through the week with no setbacks.

WR-Michael Crabtree; the Raiders receiver has been downgraded to doubtful and should be removed from your lineups this week. With Crabtree likely out, wide receiver Amari Cooper gets a bump in value in a tough Week 4 matchup.

RB-CJ Prosise; the Seahawks running back is doubtful for Sunday as expected. It will be Chris Carson and likely JD McKissic according to head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks backfield is a muddled situation and Carson is really the only back this week that carries any value.

WR-Amari Cooper; the Raiders receiver was removed from the team’s injury report. That’s good news for Cooper, but for owners the bad news is his recent dings have had little to do with his recent struggles. He’s going to be mid-WR2 this week with a tough matchup against the Broncos.

RB-Jalen Richard; the Raiders passing catching back was removed from the team’s injury report. With the likely absence of Crabtree this week, Richard could see even more play in the passing game. He’s a low-end flex this week.

RB-Melvin Gordon; the Chargers starting running returned to a full practice on Friday. He’s still dinged up, but will be a go on Sunday. He’s my No.11 fantasy RB this week.

WR-Mike Williams; the Chargers rookie wide receiver has been ruled out for week 4. The rookie is close as there was some thought he may play. Even when he does return to the field this season, at least in the early going he’s going to be nothing more than a stash until owners see what he can do.

TE-Delanie Walker; the Titans tight end was removed from the team’s injury report. Walker should be ready to roll on Sunday against the Texans, he’s my No.5 fantasy TE this week.

RB-Matt Forte; the Jets veteran running back has been ruled out for Sunday. With Forte shelved, running back Bilal Powell will start and likely see a larger share of the workload this week. Even with Forte out, Powell is considered a low-end flex at best.

RB-Rex Burkhead; the Patriots running back entered the regular season with a lot of hype, but recent injuries have really derailed his opportunities. He is listed as doubtful, although he did return to practice Friday, so he’s close to returning. Right now Burkhead is merely a stash in deeper leagues.

WR-Kenny Golladay; the Lions rookie receiver is listed as questionable for Sunday after missing the team’s last two practices. And while he has not been ruled out, owners should go ahead and avoid. Golladay hasn’t done much since his fast two score start in week one.

TE-Jack Doyle; the Colts tight end has been removed from the team’s injury report. He’s the No.17 fantasy tight end in PPR and my No.16 this week. He’s not your starter, but worth rostering as a bye week fill (if the matchup is right).

RB-Duke Johnson; the Browns running back is off the team’s injury report and is a viable flex option this week. He’s my No.29 fantasy RB in PPR.

WR-Kelvin Benjamin; the Panthers receiver has been removed from the team’s week 4 injury report which is good news for owners. Benjamin has a great matchup this week against the Patriots, but he also did last week against the Saints before exiting early. He’s a borderline flex option this week, but as long as he remains in the game he’s got potential to haul in some passes. He could be a boom or bust this week.

WR-Jamison Crowder; the Redskins receiver is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury, but he did practice on Saturday; a good indication he’ll be available Monday, Crowder was quiet last week in a game where Cousins passed for over 300-yards; it’s hard to trust him at the moment until we see something. He’s a WR3/WR4 for week 4.

TE-Jordan Reed; the Redskins tight end is listed as questionable although the sense is he plays. Just the same like last week, if you can plan it have back up tight Vernon Davis loaded in your holster in case Reed is a scratch.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 10th 2017

Sunday Morning Edition

My DFS Play Today

So for those of you that play daily fantasy sports (DFS), here’s one of my favorite plays for today

My DFS Lineup (Fan Duel)

QB-Derek Carr ($7,700): The Titans will play tough against the run today, forcing Carr and the offense to stick to the air; which is good for DFS. I like Carr’s price against a secondary that allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing QBs in 2016.

RB-Bilal Powell ($6,300): This could be a popular play in DFS today as the Bills were awful against the run last season. Powell may be the Jets best player on offense today and he could see a heavy workload. He’s got a fair value today on Fan Duel and could cash in a couple of scores.

RB-Todd Gurley ($7,300): This should be meaty matchup for Gurley as he could see upwards of 25 carries against a Colts run defense that allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2016.

WR-Michael Crabtree ($6,900): He’s a favorite target of quarterback Derek Carr and is a nice stack at his price. The Colts secondary will be short-handed today without their best cover corner (Vontae Davis); expect Crabtree to find pay-dirt.

WR-AJ Green ($8,400): Green is a beast and should see a hefty volume of targets today. Green did not face Baltimore last season (injury), but in his last five starts against the Ravens Green has scored 6 touchdowns. He loves to torch the Ravens.

WR-Doug Baldwin ($7,500): The Seahawks are on the road to face the Packers in what could be a high scoring affair. Baldwin will line up against a Packers secondary that allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers in 2016. Get him in your lineup!

TE-Zach Ertz ($5,900): This is a great price for Ertz against a Redskins defense that allowed the second most receptions to opposing tight ends in 2016. Ertz is likely to be a popular play, but at his price he’s a must.

K-Dan Bailey ($4,900): To be honest, because you have to start a kicker I am starting Bailey. He has a nice price and the last time he faced the Giants at home he posted 17 fantasy points.

Def-Texans ($5,100): The Texans are at home and draw a very poor Jaguars offense that ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses in 2016. This looks to be a prime matchup for JJ Watt and company.

That’s My Lineup for Week 1.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

January 7th, 2017
Saturday Morning Edition

Wildcard Saturday

With today’s games getting ready to heat up in less than 90 minutes, it’s time to take a look at some fantasy picks that could work for all of us DFS players.

At $7,400 salary, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins could be considered a risky value play today. Hopkins is coming off a down season from 2015, but he’s still a great talent with tremendous upside. With the Texans reverting back to quarterback Brock Osweiler, I would expect a concerted effort today to get the ball to Hopkins. The Raiders defense is beatable by leagues standards allowing the 12th most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. I expect to see Osweiler target the talented wideout no less than 10 times today; plenty of opportunities to make plays and find the end zone.

Another value play at $4,500 that is more of the sleeper variety is Seahawks tight end Luke Wilson. Clearly the number two tight end and far down on the pecking order, Wilson’s value is most prominent in the red-zone. There’s no question the Lion’s defense will focus on trying to matchup with and slow down wide receiver Doug Baldwin and tight end Jimmy Graham. I wouldn’t expect anything more than a handful of targets for Wilson (maybe 4-5 today), but likely most will come inside the 20 where he’s been effective. In his last two games, Wilson has 6 receptions, including two for touchdowns. The Lions secondary has also allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including 10 touchdowns.

That’s My Take

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 27th, 2016
Sunday Morning Edition

Week 12 Four Horsemen

Looking at today's matchups I have four fantasy plays (QB-RB-WR-TE) that I am particularly confident in that will produce solid fantasy numbers for owners. These are all must starts today;

Quarterback
The Saints quarterback Drew Brees (the number two fantasy quarterback this season) faces a tough matchup against the Rams today, but today he's enjoying home cooking. In the dome Brees has been spectacular passing for more than 300 yards in 4 of his 5 starts. His numbers at home; 366 yards passing/game, 17 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions. Brees at home is gold.

Running Back
The Dolphins are home today to face the Niners and running back Jay Ajayi will have a chance to slice up a defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including 1,576 yards rushing (most in the league). After two weeks without reaching at least 100 yards on the ground, Ajayi will be good for 100 yards and a touchdown today.

Wide Receiver
The Seahawks will be on the road today, but that won't matter to wide receiver Doug Baldwin. The Seahawks pass catcher has been efficient and effective the past three weeks catching 16 passes off 19 targets for 252 yards and three touchdowns. This week he draws a Bucs defense that allows the 4 most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including 14 receiving touchdowns (tied for 3rd most).

Tight End
And a surprise pick here is the Browns tight end Gary Barnidge. This may be the only risky play since Barnidge has been a great disappointment this season, as has the Browns offense all-together. Barnidge actually has a good matchup for PPR owners facing a Giants defense that struggles to cover opposing tightends; 55 receptions allowed (tied for 7th most) and 646 receiving yards allowed (tied for 10th most). This won't be a huge game, but it could be Barnidge's best game this season.

That's My Take.

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 7th, 2016
Monday Evening Edition

Monday Night Matchup

The latest I have seen is running back LeSean McCoy is expected to play tonight against the Seahawks. As long as Shady plays, back up running back Mike Gillislee is down-graded to not much more than a risky low-end flex play tonight against a very tough run defense.

With Shady less than 100 percent, fantasy owners should not expect a full-load or great production. But with talent like McCoy owners can't take the risk and sit him.

Also expected to return to the field tonight is Percy Harvin. For fantasy owners reaching for anything, in the unconventional Rex Ryan offense at times, Harvin could be a flyer against his old team.

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson practiced fully this past week and he looks good to go, but he'll have his hands full facing a tough Bills defense that has been pretty stingy versus opposing quarterbacks this season.

His counterpart Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor is not likely to have much better luck against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 6th fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. 

Fantasy owners looking for help under center tonight, may have a tough going, but if you have to pick one QB lean with home-cooking (Wilson).

One possible play for tonight is Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin. One of Wilson's favorite targets could find some space tonight against a secondary that has allowed the 12th most receptions to opposing wide receivers.

Tonight's matchup may not yield a lot of fireworks on the scoreboard, more like a 20-13 outcome, but there will be plenty of action in the trenches, on special teams, and on the defensive side of the ball as both sides will likely get after one another in a big way tonight.

Fantasy owners playing team defense, have to favor the Hawks tonight at home; look for a few big plays and possibly a score.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega

WEEK 3 FANTASY PICKS

September 27th, 2015
Sunday morning

Week 3 Fantasy picks

When is comes to fantasy football, there is no crystal ball to check or scientific formula to follow, although some of us may disagree. But what there is that you can count on weekly are your own eyes and football instinct. Neither of these may be enough for you to win, but they are sure a lot of fun to work with.

Having both of those tools at my disposal, I give you week 3 favorites for Sunday. Now mind you, these are not the regular fantasy studs you drafted in the early rounds (the no-brainer starts), here I am trying to dig a little deeper to find the diamonds in the rough, those low cost value plays needed for success on the highly popular DFS sites.

In the backfield, I am rolling out Raiders running back Latavius Murray (36 touches in two games). Murray should see plenty of work today against a Browns defense allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including better than 5 yards a pop on the ground. And for a little sexy PPR appeal, Murray has snagged 10 targets for 10 receptions thus far this season.

Out wide I am looking at the Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin. Every Sunday Baldwin is heavily involved in the pass and at a low salary, he's a low risk play on DFS sites. In two games this season Baldwin has seen 17 targets, snagging 14. Now his production is not what we'd like to see with this much activity, but today I like his chances of doing more against a Bears secondary that has already allowed 7 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.

Under center, I have a couple of quarterbacks I will be leaning on; Ryan Tannehill and Tyrod Taylor. Tannehill is a safe play this week and has a good matchup at home against the Bills secondary that ranks 3rd highest in allowing fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Taylor faces a tough road test against the Dolphins today, but he's been exceptional (from a fantasy perspective) in his two starts this season and ranks 6th among quarterbacks (standard scoring). His five total touchdowns this season rank tied for third among quarterbacks; he should be good for one in the air and one on the ground today.

Lastly, the quarterbacks safety blanket (tight end) that I am eye-balling on DFS sites today is Greg Olsen. A likely start for most owners that drafted him and today one that should pay off. After a slow start in week one (3 targets, one catch), Olsen turned things around a bit in week 2 catching 6 of 14 passes thrown his direction.He's still without a score this season, but facing a depleted Saints defense that ranks 13th worst versus opposing tight ends he should see plenty of action again this week and could finally find paydirt. In his last meeting against the Saints back in 2014, Olsen hauled ins 10 of 11 passes for 72 yards and a score; could we see a similar performance today? Time to check those crystal balls.

That's my take for Sunday, week 3.

~David G