FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 2 FF START'EMS

September 16th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Week 2

Start'Ems

My Week Starts for Sunday and Monday.

QB-Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - Last season in their divisional round matchup, Lawrence fell flat passing for just 217 yards with one touchdown and an interception. There’s nothing like home cooking and this Sunday the Jaguars third-year quarterback will find redemption and a big day against the defending champs. The Chiefs defense had a decent showing in week one, but Lawrence has got himself some nice weapons he’ll be showcasing on Sunday and they should lead to a big day. Start him.

RB-James Cook (Bills) - Cook dominated the snap counts (59.4%) and usage (16 touches) for the Bills backfield in week one. Although his production was a bit pedestrian (RB27) at best in week one, Cook has a favorable matchup in week 2 where the ceiling is raised. Cook faces a Raiders defense that allowed 10 receptions to opposing running backs and almost 4.5 yards per carry in week one. This sets up potentially for a very nice game for Cook, start him.

WR-Tee Higgins (Bengals) - The Bengals wideout was targeted 8 times in week one and did not post a single catch. You can almost guarantee that will never happen again and most likely what will happen is a bounce back game. Higgins has a truly special player in his teammate Ja’Marr Chase lining up on the other side of the field, who will also look to bounce back this week, so I am going to temper my expectations. I expect Higgins to grab a handful of passes, but more importantly he finds the endzone, start him.

WR-Deebo Samuel (49ers) - Last week it was Brandon Aiyuk featured in the pass game, but Deebo was still a big part and played on 86.8% of snaps (to Aiyuk’s 85.3%). Deebo (week one WR36) has scored in four of his last five meetings against the Rams, scoring five times. I believe he’s a strong bet to find pay dirt in this one, of course you are starting him.

TE-Hunter Henry (Patriots) - This take is one part due to usage and another part due to matchup. In week one Henry played on 78.8% of the offensive snaps. He was targeted six times and finished week one as the TE1. His matchup this week is against a Dolphins defense that allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Henry likely won’t have a lot of catches and yards, but he’s a good bet to reach the end zone in this one, start him.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

November 7th, 2016
Monday Evening Edition

Monday Night Matchup

The latest I have seen is running back LeSean McCoy is expected to play tonight against the Seahawks. As long as Shady plays, back up running back Mike Gillislee is down-graded to not much more than a risky low-end flex play tonight against a very tough run defense.

With Shady less than 100 percent, fantasy owners should not expect a full-load or great production. But with talent like McCoy owners can't take the risk and sit him.

Also expected to return to the field tonight is Percy Harvin. For fantasy owners reaching for anything, in the unconventional Rex Ryan offense at times, Harvin could be a flyer against his old team.

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson practiced fully this past week and he looks good to go, but he'll have his hands full facing a tough Bills defense that has been pretty stingy versus opposing quarterbacks this season.

His counterpart Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor is not likely to have much better luck against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the 6th fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. 

Fantasy owners looking for help under center tonight, may have a tough going, but if you have to pick one QB lean with home-cooking (Wilson).

One possible play for tonight is Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin. One of Wilson's favorite targets could find some space tonight against a secondary that has allowed the 12th most receptions to opposing wide receivers.

Tonight's matchup may not yield a lot of fireworks on the scoreboard, more like a 20-13 outcome, but there will be plenty of action in the trenches, on special teams, and on the defensive side of the ball as both sides will likely get after one another in a big way tonight.

Fantasy owners playing team defense, have to favor the Hawks tonight at home; look for a few big plays and possibly a score.

That's my take.

~David G. Ortega

WEEK 3 FANTASY PICKS

September 27th, 2015
Sunday morning

Week 3 Fantasy picks

When is comes to fantasy football, there is no crystal ball to check or scientific formula to follow, although some of us may disagree. But what there is that you can count on weekly are your own eyes and football instinct. Neither of these may be enough for you to win, but they are sure a lot of fun to work with.

Having both of those tools at my disposal, I give you week 3 favorites for Sunday. Now mind you, these are not the regular fantasy studs you drafted in the early rounds (the no-brainer starts), here I am trying to dig a little deeper to find the diamonds in the rough, those low cost value plays needed for success on the highly popular DFS sites.

In the backfield, I am rolling out Raiders running back Latavius Murray (36 touches in two games). Murray should see plenty of work today against a Browns defense allowing the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including better than 5 yards a pop on the ground. And for a little sexy PPR appeal, Murray has snagged 10 targets for 10 receptions thus far this season.

Out wide I am looking at the Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin. Every Sunday Baldwin is heavily involved in the pass and at a low salary, he's a low risk play on DFS sites. In two games this season Baldwin has seen 17 targets, snagging 14. Now his production is not what we'd like to see with this much activity, but today I like his chances of doing more against a Bears secondary that has already allowed 7 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.

Under center, I have a couple of quarterbacks I will be leaning on; Ryan Tannehill and Tyrod Taylor. Tannehill is a safe play this week and has a good matchup at home against the Bills secondary that ranks 3rd highest in allowing fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Taylor faces a tough road test against the Dolphins today, but he's been exceptional (from a fantasy perspective) in his two starts this season and ranks 6th among quarterbacks (standard scoring). His five total touchdowns this season rank tied for third among quarterbacks; he should be good for one in the air and one on the ground today.

Lastly, the quarterbacks safety blanket (tight end) that I am eye-balling on DFS sites today is Greg Olsen. A likely start for most owners that drafted him and today one that should pay off. After a slow start in week one (3 targets, one catch), Olsen turned things around a bit in week 2 catching 6 of 14 passes thrown his direction.He's still without a score this season, but facing a depleted Saints defense that ranks 13th worst versus opposing tight ends he should see plenty of action again this week and could finally find paydirt. In his last meeting against the Saints back in 2014, Olsen hauled ins 10 of 11 passes for 72 yards and a score; could we see a similar performance today? Time to check those crystal balls.

That's my take for Sunday, week 3.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

March 13th, 2011 Sunday

David’s Daily Digest

2011 Fantasy Football Players

As we start looking toward the upcoming 2011 season (with fingers crossed), it’s hard to imagine any new surprises for fantasy owners at the quarterback spot. We all saw quite evident the growth and progression of Michael Vick in the pocket, the arrival of Aaron Rodgers as one of the games’ best, and the several young arms that continue to make strides with their progression.

2011 should present a host of options for owners to choose from at the quarterback spot. A couple of names that come to mind that could offer plenty of return investment on their draft selection include quarterback Matt Ryan and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

After solid fantasy showings in 2010 Ryan and Fitzpatrick are two less-than-marquee names that could surprise folks with strong follow-up performances in 2011…..

Fantasy Quarterback…..

Matt Ryan (Falcons)

The Falcons young quarterback Matt Ryan has continually improved since his arrival into the league in 2008 and for fantasy owners his progression has been a huge reward. Ryan finished the 2010 season with over 3,700 yards passing and 28 touchdowns; he was fantasy’s number eight scoring quarterback (traditional scoring).

Matty “Ice” was particularly strong at home this past season throwing 15 touchdowns and just three picks finishing with a 7-1 record. Ryan was also very consistent passing for more than 200 yards with multiple touchdowns in eight games; he also had nine total games with multiple touchdowns including four games with three touchdowns. With one of the leagues’ premiere wide receivers (Roddy White) to throw to and a talented young receiving corp Ryan should have little trouble duplicating his numbers.

After his big 2010 season, Ryan has shown the growth and maturity of a big-time clutch passer and his number eight finish in fantasy (among quarterbacks) will make him a mid-draft fantasy selection favorite. Ryan should easily be a top ten fantasy quarterback in 2011, but he’s not going to go early among the quarterbacks; the later you can grab him will offer the best value.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Bills)

The Bills quarterback had quietly what could be considered a breakout season. Before the 2010 season Fitzpatrick had hardly made a name for himself with two seasons in St. Louis and two in Cincinnati. In 2009 he did start eight games with the Bills, but his passing numbers were less than mediocre and he finished with a 69.7 passer rating.

In 2010 Fitzpatrick enjoyed his coming out party with the Bills passing for 3,000 yards, completing nearly 58% of his passes, and tossing 23 touchdowns in just 13 games. Ryan did struggle down the stretch and toss 15 picks last season which could deter some owners, but with a full camp as the starter under his belt in 2011 he should be more that capable of ironing out the bugs.

Fitzpatrick had plenty of strong numbers in 2010 that should keep him in good company as a solid back-up fantasy quarterback in 2011. He’ll also benefit greatly with his returning cast of receivers in 2011 that will include Stevie Johnson, Roscoe Parrish, and Lee Evans (if he is not released). Fitzpatrick has started 33 games over the past three seasons, so 2011 should be make-it-or-break-it time; he’s not a fantasy starter, but could give owners some relief as an insurance back with a few spots starts and bye week replacement.

That’s how I read it for 2011 under center….

By David Ortega

FSH: ON THE TICKER

April 18th, 2009 11:07pm PST

15 DAYS TO THE NFL DRAFT

NFL Draft Preview:
On The Ticker

On the Board: Buffalo Bills....
With the recent trading of offensive tackle Jason Peters, the Bills clearly have a decisive need to fill in this year’s draft and with two picks in the first round it’s certain they will.

With the eleventh pick in the draft the Bills may have to settle with the fourth or even fifth best tackle available in the draft. It’s not likely they’ll see Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe, or even Andre Smith make it this far, but Michael Oher (University of Mississippi) should still on the board. With a late first round pick still available, it makes sense for the Bills to grab one of this year’s best offensive lineman prospects.

(AP Photo)

Oher is an ideal 6’6” and 325-lbs at left tackle and with 34 consecutive starts in the SEC, he is more than ready to make the transition to the NFL. Oher could have made the move a year ago and was set to enter the 2008 draft as a top 20 pick, but a change of mind kept him at Ole Miss for his senior season.

The Bills recently signed free agent running back Dominic Rhodes to add some temporary help in the backfield. This will be one need they can address later in the draft, but defense will still remain a concern. There are some people pegging the Bills to target a top defensive prospect like Aaron Maybin (Penn State) or Everette Brown (Florida State).

With an added pick (number 28 overall) in the draft, it makes sense for head coach Dick Jauron to invest in his newly revamped offense (with T.O.). In 2009, this is the side of the ball where the Bills figure to make the most impact. The loss of Peters hurts, but at number 11 on April 25, the team can fill that void immediately.


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