FSH NOTEBOOK: FF WEEK 6 STARTS & SITS

October 14th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Evening Edition

Fantasy Football Week 6: 

Starts & Sits

Each week fantasy owners are going to be faced with the decision of whether to start or sit some of the fringe players whose fantasy scoring of late and for the season is not quite on par as a starter. A slow start this season, a series of bad matchups, or just over-hyped, whatever the reason for the fringe players performances owners will still need to make the call to roll the dice or move along.

There are 14 games on the remaining schedule for Week 6 and 13 are on the slate for Sunday. And don’t forget the early game in London between the Ravens and Titans. Here are my Week 6, Starts and Sits.

Week 6 Starts

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - The Jaguars quarterback has yet to break out this season, but he did have one of his best games for yards last week, passing for over 300-yards. Lawrence will square off against a Colts defense that has allowed the 3rd most passing yards this season.

Kirk Cousins (Vikings) - The Vikings passer will face a Bears defense that allows the 2nd most passing yards this season and has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) - He’s coming off a strong Week 5 performance and should have his full complement of weapons this week with the return of Mike Evans.

Sam Howell (Commanders) - In this road matchup with the Falcons, Howell and the Commanders may have to lean more on the passing game. 92 pass attempts for Howell in his past two starts.

Kyren Williams (Rams) - Williams is the fantasy RB11. This week he gets the Cardinals run defense that allows the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

D’Andre Swift (Eagles) - The Eagles runner has cooled off the past couple of weeks, but a matchup with the Jets could get things heated once again. Jets allow over 4.0 yards per carry and the 9th most fantasy points to opposing runners.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) - The Ravens receiver has been targeted 25 times over the past three weeks and is averaging double digit fantasy points.

DeAndre Hopkins (Titans) - Coming off his best game of the season in week 5 with 8 receptions for 140 yards on 11 targets, Hopkins will look to keep it going against a Ravens secondary that has allowed 6th most receptions to opposing wideouts.

Jonnu Smith (Falcons) - The Falcons tight end has been steady averaging 7 targets per game for the last three weeks.

 

Zach Ertz (Cardinals) - Ertz has a nice matchup against a Rams defense that has allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Week 6 Sits

Jared Goff (Lions) - A tough road matchup this week against a Bucs defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the past two weeks.

CJ Stroud (Texans) - The Texans starter came back to earth last week and has another tough matchup this week against the Saints defense that allows the 8th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Rachaad White (Buccaneers) - White has a tough matchup this week against one of the league’s best run defenses this season. The Lions have allowed the 4th fewest yards per game and 3rd fewest per carry this season.

Jerome Ford & Kareem Hunt (Browns) - Without their starting quarterback, this offense could really struggle and with the 49ers defense playing well, I just don’t trust this backfield.

Amari Cooper (Browns) - It’s not enough that the Browns are facing the 49ers (4th best defense in the league), but they will be without starter Deshaun Watson. It’s hard to sit Cooper, but I wouldn't expect much from him.

Hunter Henry (Patriots) - After a hot start this season, Henry has gone cold along with the Patriots offense. For now the bench is the best place until the offense starts to show more consistency.

Darren Waller (Giants) - The Giants will be without the services of starting quarterback Daniel Jones and Waller (groin) popped up on the injury report this week.  It will be tough to trust him if he is able to play.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WHIFFS

September 26th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Morning Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs!

(NFL Week 3)

So week 3 was an unforgettable week for fantasy owners, filled with some generational performances that will go down in history. If you had players like Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, and Davante Adams in your lineup, you are probably smiling looking at your week 3 outcome.

If by chance you had any of these players in your lineups, your happiness does not exist. These were my Week 3 whiffs.

Ridder has a rough time in the Motor City.

QB-Desmond Ridder (QB26) - The Rookie quarterback could not take his show on the road to Detroit. The Lions defense stepped up and gave him lots of trouble, sacking Ridder seven times. After a strong week 2 performance (fantasy QB12), Ridder posted a dud on the road passing for 201 yards, no touchdowns and a fumble lost.

Following his Week 2 dud, definitely expected better.

QB-Trevor Lawrence (QB17) - It wasn't a terrible day for the Jaguars signal caller, but his 279 yards passing with one touchdown pass and pick for the QB17 spot is not good enough for owners that drafted him as a fringe QB1. 

With the matchup he had, expected better numbers

RB-Najee Harris (RB34) - The Steelers running back plodded his way to 65 yards on the ground on 19 carries. He recorded zero catches and was only targeted once. It’s almost time to leave Harris on your bench, almost.

Did not expect the team’s leading receiver to disappear.

WR-Nico Collins (WR66) - After two weeks, Collins was starting to look like a locked-in WR1. On Sunday he was only targeted three times. Catching 2 passes for 34 yards, which is a little concerning. At this point he still needs to be in lineups.

Still getting the targets, just not the numbers.

WR-Calvin Ridley (WR58) - After laying an egg at home in Week 2, the Jaguars offense came back and laid another in week 3. Ridley followed up his week 2 disappointing stat line with another on Sunday. Ridley only registered three receptions for 40 yards, but he was targeted another 7 times. His production has been anemic, but the opportunity is there.

Wasn’t expecting the top spot, but Top-12.

TE-Hunter Henry (TE25) - After consecutive weeks finishing as the fantasy TE1, Henry came back to earth. The Patriots tight end only registered two receptions in week 3 on 5 targets. His 3.7 fantasy points finished outside the top 20 for the week.

Expected Schultz to play a bigger role in the passing game.

TE-Dalton Schultz (TE43) - The Texans tight end was only targeted three times on Sunday, recording a single catch for 9 yards, in a game the team won. I certainly didn’t expect this low output from Schultz. This was a big whiff in week 3. 

I was expecting Hayden to be more involved.

TE-Hayden Hurst (TE37) - The Panthers tight end was quiet on Sunday recording one catch for 11 yards. This was the second straight game where Hurst has finished outside the top-30 fantasy tight ends. He can be dropped.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: (DFS) THE FAVORITE FIVE

September 23rd, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Late-Evening Edition

(DFS) The Favorite Five

(Draft Kings)

My week two was a rough week for DFS picks. The Lions connection (Goff-to-St.Brown) fared well, but Travis Etienne Jr, Darnell Mooney (injured), and Adam Trautman all fell flat in week 2. The Chiefs decided to play good defense on the road and shut down Etienne, Mooney ended up pulling a now show, and Trautman became the forgotten man in Denver. 

Even when you’re down, you gotta look up and move on.

Now looking forward to NFL Sunday, Week 3 I am planning my redemption and huge bounce back with some strong plays. These are players that deserve Week 3 consideration.

QB-Trevor Lawrence ($6800) - I love this game as a great bounce back opportunity for Lawrence and company. Lawrence, currently the fantasy QB22, is home again this week and faces a Texans defense that is allowing a high 76.3 completion rate through the first two weeks. Lawrence and the offense were off last week against the Chiefs defense, but will look to get right in this one by taking advantage of the Texans deficiency in the Red Zone, 7 touchdowns allowed in 9 trips.

RB-Tony Pollard ($8000) - The Cowboys running back is currently the fantasy RB4 with 191 scrimmage yards and two rushing touchdowns. Through the team’s first two games Pollard has been heavily involved with 50 touches (25 avg/game), so I expect to see this continue on Sunday. The Cardinals defense has been stingy thus far in two games this season, but they have also allowed three total touchdowns (1 rush, 2 rec) to opposing running backs. I am betting on Pollard’s volume.

WR-Calvin Ridley ($7200) - I like this stack, Ridley paired with Lawrence on Sunday. Last week the two weren’t in sync, only connected twice for 32 yards on 8 targets. I am betting these two will get this corrected on Sunday and capitalize against the Texans secondary that allows the third highest rate of completion to wide receivers.

WR-Nico Collins ($5300) - Clearly Collins is greatly underpriced, which is our win. Through two weeks of action he ranks as fantasy WR7. Averaging 10 targets per game thus far this season, the volume is there for Collins to produce. I love the matchup in a contest where the Texans could be playing from behind and have to air it out more.

TE-Hayden Hurst ($3800) - The return of the “Red Rifle” (Andy Dalton) this week has me thinking check down and safely value. Enter Hayden Hurst, currently fantasy TE7. He’s more than a capable receiver, as evidenced in his week one outing where he was targeted 7 times, caught five balls for 41 yards and one touchdown. With Dalton under center, I see the tight end getting more usage on Sunday.

These are my favorite plays for Week 3.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WHIFFS

September 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Morning Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs!

(NFL Week 2)

I am going to have good picks and I’m going to have some bad ones too. It’s just the nature of this game, so here are my week 2 picks where I whiffed.

I just didn’t love Pickens on Monday Night

George Pickens (WR) – Without a doubt, this was my biggest whiff. Don’t get me wrong, I love Pickens this season, I believe he’s the real number one in Pittsburgh. With another tough matchup against the Browns, following the disastrous start in week one, I was expecting much. To put his MNF performance into context, without the 71-yard TD catch, his line looked likes; 3/56/0 on 9 targets. Sometimes it just takes one.

I thought Mooney was money.

Darnell Mooney (WR) - I’m not really sure what happened here with Mooney. He did leave the game early in the second half with a knee injury, but in over 30 minutes of football he did not have a single target and he was only on the field for 15 snaps (seems low). 

I thought Trautman would score.

Adam Trautman (TE) - So much for the injury to the Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich, meant nothing towards Trautman’s workload in the passing game. With Dulcich out (placed on IR), Trautman recorded just one lone target. Bust.

I expected another strong game.

Travis Etienne Jr (RB) - The Jaguars running back was completely held in check on Sunday, just rushing for 40 yards on 12 carries. This was not the expected outcome in week 2 after finishing as the No.6 fantasy running back in week 1

With a home game I thought he would play well.

Trevor Lawrence (QB) -.Much like the whole Jaguars offense on Sunday, Lawrence pretty much laid an egg at home against the Chiefs. After a strong week one showing Lawrence only completed 53.8% of his passes with zero touchdowns in week 2. He was the No.27 fantasy quarterback.

I figured he’d fall flat facing a ferocious pass rush.

Russell Wilson (QB) - I didn’t expect to see this on Sunday, Wilson finishing as the No.3 fantasy quarterback. At times it wasn’t pretty and throughout it was rough. Wilson was sacked 7 times on the afternoon, but when he wasn’t on the ground he posted 308 yards passing with 3 touchdowns and added 56 rushing yards. It was a nice stat line, but greatly overshadowed by the stunning week two loss at home.

I thought it would be all Jeudy.

Courtland Sutton (WR) - His numbers on Sunday don’t jump off the paper, 5 grabs for 66 yards, but his double-digit fantasy points output (ppr) fared much better than expected.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: WEEK 2 FF START'EMS

September 16th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Saturday Afternoon Edition

Fantasy Football Week 2

Start'Ems

My Week Starts for Sunday and Monday.

QB-Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) - Last season in their divisional round matchup, Lawrence fell flat passing for just 217 yards with one touchdown and an interception. There’s nothing like home cooking and this Sunday the Jaguars third-year quarterback will find redemption and a big day against the defending champs. The Chiefs defense had a decent showing in week one, but Lawrence has got himself some nice weapons he’ll be showcasing on Sunday and they should lead to a big day. Start him.

RB-James Cook (Bills) - Cook dominated the snap counts (59.4%) and usage (16 touches) for the Bills backfield in week one. Although his production was a bit pedestrian (RB27) at best in week one, Cook has a favorable matchup in week 2 where the ceiling is raised. Cook faces a Raiders defense that allowed 10 receptions to opposing running backs and almost 4.5 yards per carry in week one. This sets up potentially for a very nice game for Cook, start him.

WR-Tee Higgins (Bengals) - The Bengals wideout was targeted 8 times in week one and did not post a single catch. You can almost guarantee that will never happen again and most likely what will happen is a bounce back game. Higgins has a truly special player in his teammate Ja’Marr Chase lining up on the other side of the field, who will also look to bounce back this week, so I am going to temper my expectations. I expect Higgins to grab a handful of passes, but more importantly he finds the endzone, start him.

WR-Deebo Samuel (49ers) - Last week it was Brandon Aiyuk featured in the pass game, but Deebo was still a big part and played on 86.8% of snaps (to Aiyuk’s 85.3%). Deebo (week one WR36) has scored in four of his last five meetings against the Rams, scoring five times. I believe he’s a strong bet to find pay dirt in this one, of course you are starting him.

TE-Hunter Henry (Patriots) - This take is one part due to usage and another part due to matchup. In week one Henry played on 78.8% of the offensive snaps. He was targeted six times and finished week one as the TE1. His matchup this week is against a Dolphins defense that allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Henry likely won’t have a lot of catches and yards, but he’s a good bet to reach the end zone in this one, start him.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega