FSH NOTEBOOK: FANTASY FOOTBALL WHIFFS

September 19th, 2023

David’s Daily Digest

Tuesday Morning Edition

Fantasy Football Whiffs!

(NFL Week 2)

I am going to have good picks and I’m going to have some bad ones too. It’s just the nature of this game, so here are my week 2 picks where I whiffed.

I just didn’t love Pickens on Monday Night

George Pickens (WR) – Without a doubt, this was my biggest whiff. Don’t get me wrong, I love Pickens this season, I believe he’s the real number one in Pittsburgh. With another tough matchup against the Browns, following the disastrous start in week one, I was expecting much. To put his MNF performance into context, without the 71-yard TD catch, his line looked likes; 3/56/0 on 9 targets. Sometimes it just takes one.

I thought Mooney was money.

Darnell Mooney (WR) - I’m not really sure what happened here with Mooney. He did leave the game early in the second half with a knee injury, but in over 30 minutes of football he did not have a single target and he was only on the field for 15 snaps (seems low). 

I thought Trautman would score.

Adam Trautman (TE) - So much for the injury to the Broncos tight end Greg Dulcich, meant nothing towards Trautman’s workload in the passing game. With Dulcich out (placed on IR), Trautman recorded just one lone target. Bust.

I expected another strong game.

Travis Etienne Jr (RB) - The Jaguars running back was completely held in check on Sunday, just rushing for 40 yards on 12 carries. This was not the expected outcome in week 2 after finishing as the No.6 fantasy running back in week 1

With a home game I thought he would play well.

Trevor Lawrence (QB) -.Much like the whole Jaguars offense on Sunday, Lawrence pretty much laid an egg at home against the Chiefs. After a strong week one showing Lawrence only completed 53.8% of his passes with zero touchdowns in week 2. He was the No.27 fantasy quarterback.

I figured he’d fall flat facing a ferocious pass rush.

Russell Wilson (QB) - I didn’t expect to see this on Sunday, Wilson finishing as the No.3 fantasy quarterback. At times it wasn’t pretty and throughout it was rough. Wilson was sacked 7 times on the afternoon, but when he wasn’t on the ground he posted 308 yards passing with 3 touchdowns and added 56 rushing yards. It was a nice stat line, but greatly overshadowed by the stunning week two loss at home.

I thought it would be all Jeudy.

Courtland Sutton (WR) - His numbers on Sunday don’t jump off the paper, 5 grabs for 66 yards, but his double-digit fantasy points output (ppr) fared much better than expected.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: (DFS) THE FAVORITE FIVE

September 15th, 2023

David's Daily Digest

Friday Late-Evening Edition

(DFS) The Favorite Five

(Draft Kings)

My week one picks didn’t fare too well. With Justin Herbert (QB5) and Travis Etienne Jr. (RB6), my backfield was secure, but beyond that it was lackluster. Both of my wideouts finished outside the top 20, Chris Godwin was WR40 and Mike Williams was WR50. And in an ugly week for the tight ends, Juwan Johnson finished as the TE18.

Looking ahead to Sunday, I am hoping to bounce back with some strong plays that deserve Week 2 consideration.

QB-Jared Goff ($6200) - I love this matchup for Goff and company. At home this week against a reeling Seahawks secondary that allowed 334 air yards in week 1 (ranked 30th vs pass). Goff’s showing in week one was a bit pedestrian (just one score), but he’ll have the luxury of home cooking this week and should take advantage. At his salary, I consider him a great play against the Seahawks.

RB-Travis Etienne Jr ($6900) - Again a great matchup this week for Etienne and at his salary I love this play. In week one the Jags running back finished as the No.6 fantasy running back and this week he could finish as a Top-10 once again. Etienne was in on 80% of the offensive snaps and totaled over 100 yards in week one, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. The Chiefs defense allowed better than four yards a tilt against the Lions in week one, so with his 18 carries and 5 targets in week one, I’m expecting Etienne to again find similar success. He’ll be a week 2 Stud to anchor my DFS lineups.

WR-Amon-Ra St.Brown ($7800) - I gotta tie St. Brown to Goff in this one. One of the biggest keys to the success of the Lions passing game and to Goff is Amon-Ra. In week one he was targeted 9 times (tied for 17th among WRs), a low-number considering he totaled 146 in 2022 (ranked 8th). I am expecting to see ASB heavily targeted in this one against a secondary that allowed the 2nd most receptions to opposing wide receivers in week one. ASB will be another one of my Stud anchors in my DFS lineup for week 2.

WR-Darnell Mooney ($4400) - If there ever was a value play in week 2, this has to be it. Despite the low volume passing in the Bears offense (only 13 passes to WRS - 3rd fewest in week 1), Mooney still finished as WR20. Mooney dominated the WR target shares with a 53.8% share and 18.9% overall. He converted his opportunity to 4 catches for 53 yards and a score. This Sunday Mooney faces a Bucs defense that was torched for 242 air yards by the opposing WRs. A similar line in week 2 is gold in DFS.

TE-Adam Trautman ($3000) - The Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson was highly efficient in week one and will have one of his primary weapons in Jerry Jeudy back this week. The Commanders defense will be forced to deal with Jeudy’s explosiveness which could offer a lot of room for the underneath stuff. At his salary Trautman is worth the risk, especially considering the Commanders defense allowed the 2nd most receptions to the position in week one. 

These are my favorite plays for Week 2.

That's my take!

~David G. Ortega