MURRAY AND MCCOY: NEW PLACES, SAME FACES?

August 28th 2015

Friday

Murray and McCoy: New Places, Same Faces?

I mentioned yesterday some of the running backs I would be targeting in my upcoming PPR draft and while these two (DeMarco Murray and LeSean McCoy) obvious targets were not mentioned, they are not being overlooked.

McCoy and Murray may be in new places for the 2015 season, but I still very much think these two dynamic runners are the same ball-carriers from a year ago. That being said, while the talent may still exist their situations set up for very likely different outcomes from a year ago.

Murray (450 touches in 2014) is not likely to see as heavy a load as he did in Dallas last season with the likes of Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles sharing the same sideline. History is also against him to repeat his 2014 performance. I think Murray will perform well in Philly and should have a good season, but I am not expecing him to finish 2015 as the number two fantasy stud; top 10 is more in line. With his current value in drafts (that I am seeing) making him a late first or early second round pick, his price may be too high for me to reach.

McCoy would seem to have greater appeal (to me), in a situation where he is a lock to be the workhorse. But the Bills questionable line and questionable offense, together with McCoy's recent injury status may make him appear to be a bit of a risky early pick. Regardless, I still like McCoy to also finish in the top 10 this season. Once he returns to the field, he could easily post his third consecutive 300-plus carry season, and surpass his 5 rushing touchdowns of a year ago.

Both these cats can scat with the best and have shown in the past the ability to perform at the highest of levels, but when stacking up the two head-to-head this season, based on what they bring to the table and where they'll be setting up their plates, my money is on Shady.

That's just my take.

~David G

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

August 27th, 2015
Thursday

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

With my next fantasy draft coming up in a couple of days, the emphasis in this next draft is PPR and no position will be more important than my backfield. 

As many of may be hearing and seeing, even with the recent onslaught of injuries and suspensions the wide receiver still seems to be the deepest it's ever been. Quite simply fantasy owners can not escape the fact that the running back is by far the highest contact skill position, providing the biggest risk; drafting depth always is and will once again be a premium in PPR or standard leagues.

With my upcoming draft, I am focusing on production yes, but just as important in my thought process is opportunity. In fantasy, opportunity is the prelude to utilization and production.

What I am looking for in my top targets, touches, targets, and production. With this criteria in mind as I prepare for my draft, here are my top running backs to target;

2014 numbers:
Jamaal Charles, KC - 206 carries, 40 receptions, 59 targets (265 chances)
Le'Veon Bell, PIT - 290 carries, 83 receptions, 105 targets (395 chances)
Arian Foster, HOU - 260 carries, 38 receptions, 59 targets (319 chances)
Mark Ingram, NO - 226 carries, 29 receptions, 36 targets (262 chances)
Lamar Miller, MIA - 216 carries, 38 receptions, 52 targets (268 chances)
Justin Forsett, BAL - 235 carries, 44 receptions, 59 targets (294 chances)
Andre Ellington, ARI - 201 carries, 46 receptions, 64 targets (265 chances)


Last season was a bit of a down season for Charles and based on his total chances in 2014, I only see that number increasing a lot.

Bell was a fantasy stud in 2014 and despite the two game suspension to start this season, he should be able to improve upon these numbers from a year ago.

Foster is someone I am looking at trying to steal early. His numbers may taper back a bit this season due to the early injury, but once he's healthy he'll see volume and produce.

Ingram is someone I think I am likely to value higher than most. I believe he can be a bell-cow in New Orleans and with no Immy Graham, the Saints offense will have a more conservative look this season.

Playing in what should be an improved offense, behind a rising star quarterback I can only see Miller continuing his ascent as one of the more reliable runners in the league.

Forsett is another one of those backs I may be valuing higher than most. I watched a lot of his games last season and I am a believer in his skills. He may lose some goal line touches to a bigger back, but he's still going to see plenty of work in the pass game.

I don't really like chasing sleepers and I am not sure that these backs would be considered, but Doug Martin  (missed 5 games last season) in Tampa and Rashad Jennings (208 chances in 11 games) are a pair that I will target in mid-rounds to add depth.

Just my take.

~David G

THE JORDY DILEMMA

August 27th 2015
Wednesday

THE JORDY DILEMMA

If you were like me and looking to cash in on "Hands McGee's" (Packers receiver Jordy Nelson) consistency and volumninous production, you used a high draft selection to nab the league's number six receptions leader (98), number four receiving yards (1,519 yards), and tied for second in touchdowns (13); arguably one of the top fantasy options for 2015.

As it always does every year, injuries play a big part of the pro game, as well as the fantasy game. If you spent one of your top draft selections on Nelson, than you are in the same boat as myself and many others now looking for help through the fantasy waiver wire or even trades.

With Nelson's season over with the knee injury, you know he is going to work hard to come back, and you just know he will (and YOU can too). Even if your top pick or number one wide receiver is shelved for the season, there is time to recover and bounce back.

In my recent draft (a 10-team PPR/IDP league), our rounds went 25 deep so there were quite a few receivers taken that are likely to still be available in many leagues that draft 20 rounds or less. In the league I play, we start two wide receivers with a flex (so we can use three in our starting lineup). On that note with this season another one of those 'years of the wide receiver" (a position that appears very deep this season), some of the more appealing names that came off the board include the following;

Eric Decker, NYJ - 15th round, 3rd pick
Michael Crabtree, Oak, - 15th round, 8th pick
Davante Adams, GB - 16th round, 2nd pick
Malcom Floyd, SD - 17th round, 1st pick
Charles Johnson, Min - 17th round, 7th pick
Donte Moncrief, IND - 24th round, 1st pick

In this group, the notables are Adams, Johnson, and Moncrief. With Nelson out, Adams value will rise significantly as well as his 66 targets from a year ago. In Minnesota, Johnson (59 targets in 2014) could be lining up to be one of quarterback Teddy Bridgewaters more reliable targets, as he averaged nearly seven a game for the final seven weeks of the regular season. 

Moncrief came on the scene a year ago as a big-play option nabbing 32 ball on 49 targets for nearly 14 yards a grab. With quarterback Andy Luck set to have another stellar and productive fantasy season expect to see Moncrief in the mix.

A couple of more names of interest that owners should be keeping a watchful eye on; wide receivers James Jones in New York, Leonard Hankerson in Atlanta, and Mohamed Sanu in Cincinnati.

In my opinion Sanu is the riskier of the three with a shaky quarterback at best in Andy Dalton, but he returns in 2015 with 98 targets under his belt and a lot of familiarity with his QB. Jones looks on track to make the Giants as their number 4 reciever, but that's no guarantee. If he is released, his old stomping grounds is Lambeau and it should not surprise if they come calling; his value would spike in a hurry. Hankerson is the question-mark. With no history in Atlanta, he's working for a job, but there are whispers he's been impressive. And with wide receiver Roddy White having recently undergone surgery on his elbow, there's a door open for Hankerson.

Hope some of this information will help those of you in the same boat. Remember it's never over until the fat lady sings and this fantasy season is just getting started.

Good luck fellow players.

~David G.

2015 FANTASY FOOTBALL

August 25th, 2015

FANTASY

FOOTBALL

IS

BACK!!

Check out these sites for the latest.

• The Fantasy Footballers
• Rotoworld Fantasy Football
• Pro Football Focus
• Fantasy Football Diehards
• BFD Fantasy Football
• ESPN Fantasy Football

The preseason is heading into week 3, the dress-rehearsal for the NFL and a chance for those of us late drafters to get a good look at who we'll be targeting in our up-coming fantasy drafts.

For those of us snake-bitten by the injury bug already with high-profile (and high fantasy production) players like Running back Arian Foster and wide recievers Kelvin Benjamin and Jordy Nelson going down, this weekend will be important to find those waiver-wire gems to fill the big voids left behind.

If you have an upcoming draft, make sure you are doing your homework and taking your notes. Don't be the one guy at your draft not "in the know." 

I will be doing my research and checking those all-important daily news and injury updates and sharing my takes often as the season nears and progresses.

Good luck to all of you fellow fantasy football gamers, I look forward to sharing a great fantasy season!

~David G.