FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

October 4th, 2017

Wednesday Evening Edition

Week 4 Sunday Heroes

Not-the-Usual Suspects 

This is a late look back at some of Sunday's top performances from the guys you might not have been expecting. Did these guys help you? Whether they did or didn't doesn't matter now. They may not have been the usual suspects leading into week 4, but you'll be watching for their names leading into week 5 and beyond.

The return to the fantasy spotlight this week goes to Giants quarterback Eli Manning. With the talent at receiver he has this season, an athletic tight end, Shane Vereen out of the backfield, we'd surely expect to see Manning's name. Such has not been the case for a while, so his appearance is a pleasant surprise for fantasy owners. It is concerning though, he had to heave the pigskin 49 times though. Nonetheless a big week 4 for Eli with 288 yards passing, two passing touchdowns, and a rare rushing touchdown.

Last season Rams quarterback Jared Goff was not considered a viable fantasy option at any time. Nowadays, the 2nd year passer is making a case to be on rosters. He's continued his steady play and currently resides as the No.10 fantasy QB after passing for 255 yards with two touchdowns in a week 4 win over the Cowboys. Goff tops our list of signal callers for Week 4;

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: 255 pa yds, 2 tds

Eli Manning: 288 pa yds, 2 tds, 1 ru td

Andy Dalton: 286 pa yds, 4 tds

Deshaun Watson: 283 pa yds, 4 tds, 1 ru td

Maybe it's not usual to expect big games from running back Andre Ellington, but fantasy owners may have to get used to it. Each week Ellington has seen his touches increase and each week he has responded. In Week 4 Ellington fnished as the No.12 fantasy RB (in PPR) totaling 104 yards with 9 catches.

The Eagles newest battering ram running back LaGarrette Blount finally got rolling in Week 4. In the pass happy league that the NFL has become, Blount is more of a one trick pony sticking to the ground game. Through the first 3 weeks of the season, Blount has barely been able to pull his engine out of the garage totaling just 113 yards rushing. On Sunday Blount carried the ball 16 times and rushed for 136 yards (8.5 yards per carry average) adding a rushing touchdown and a 20-yard reception.

A very notable add to this list is the Saints rookie running back Alvin Kamara. It's quite evident the Saints love this kid and he's getting on the field regularly. He's been steady through the first quarter of the season and on Sunday he finished as the No.6 fantasy RB (in PPR). He's locked in a timeshare, but he's the Saint running back to own. Through 4 weeks he's the No.24 fantasy RB, 5 spots ahead of started Mark Ingram.

Running backs

Andre Ellington: 18 ru yds, 9 rec, 86 rec yds

LeGarrette Blount: 136 ru yds, 20-yd rec, 1 td

Giovani Bernard: 12 ru yds, 3 rec, 67 rec yds, 1 td

Duke Johnson: 13 ru yds, 9 rec, 47 rec yds, 1 td

Elijah McGuire: 93 ru yds, 2 rec, 38 rec yds, 1 td

Alvin Kamara:25 ru yds, 10 rec, 71 rec yds, 1 td

Bilal Powell: 163 ru yds, 4 rec, 27 rec yds, 1 td

A big surprise appearance this week comes from the Ravens wide receiver Mike Wallace and for two reasons. First, we haven't seen much from Wallace this season, so this Week 4 appearance is eyebrow raising. The second reason is because how poorly the Ravens offense has played thus far this season. So don't get used to seeing him return often.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp: 5 rec, 60 rec yds, 1 td

Mike Wallace: 6 rec, 55 yds, 1 td

Will Fuller: 4 rec, 35 yds, 2 tds

Tyrell Williams: 5 rec, 115 rec yds, 1 td

The interesting suspect at tight end this week is the Bengals Tyler Kroft. Their normal tight end usually plays fairly active in the passing game each week and with Eifert out for a few weeks Kroft may become a return visitor. His Week 4 performance of 6 catches for  68 yards and two scores earned him a trip here and put him on top of all fantasy tight ends this week.

Tight Ends

OJ Howard: 2 rec, 63 rec yds, 1 td

AJ Derby: 4 rec, 75 rec yds, 1 td

Cameron Brate: 4 rec, 80 rec yds, 1 td

Tyler Kroft: 6 rec, 68 rec yds, 2 tds

That's My Take

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

September 26th 2017

Tuesday Night Edition

Weekly Waiver Wire

(Week 4)

Well the good thing for fantasy owners, through the first three weeks of action the free agent pool has yet to dry up, but this week there may be a couple of names that have already surfaced.

QB-Case Keenum (QB2/ QB streamer) Keenum is not a name you’ll hear very often around the watercooler when it comes to the Waiver wire. But after two weeks of play and a strong week 3 performance, he has garnered some consideration, especially since he’ll remain at the reins heading into week 4 and he’s got great weapons around him.

RB-Chris Thompson (streaming RB2/weekly flex) if he’s still available snatch him now. The Redskins scat back is clearly the team’s best out of the backfield and although he’s not going to be a featured ball carrier in the offense, he’s going to see enough snaps and touches to produce consistently (especially in PPR formats).

RB-Jamaal Charles (flex option) we saw on Sunday when given opportunity Charles can still make things happen. He was limited to just 9 carries, but was clearly the better Broncos back with 56 yards rushing and a score. Look for his touches to continue to increase and with it his value grow.

RB-Chris Carson (low flex / rostered) on Sunday Carson was clearly the featured runner in the Seahawks backfield. Now Sunday wasn’t a typical run game plan as the Seahawks threw the ball 49 times, but Carson drew the start. His play was underwhelming, but he looks to be the preferred option at this time, so better days may lie ahead. He may be worth snagging and stashing for now if you have the roster spot available.

Andre Ellington (flex option) the cards receiving back got a lot of run Monday night against the Cowboys, totaling 81 yards on 10 touches. Starting running back Chris Johnson showed a lot of rust Monday. A slow going for CJ2K could pave the way for more work in the near future for Ellington. Right now he may be the Cardinal runner to own.

WR-Geronimo Allison (current low-flex option) now Allison is one to watch. I think his 8 targets on Sunday are telling. Rodgers went to him enough to make me believe there is trust. With Cobb ailing and Bennett nothing more than a short option safety blanket, Allison could work his way into the James Jones role; the fourth receiver on a team where the quarterback has the ability to feature anyone. His value may be limited for now, but let’s see how he does in the coming weeks.

WR-Travis Benjamin (Borderline WR3/WR4/flex) The Chargers deep threat receiver is tough to trust averaging just 5 targets per contest, but he’s got real big play potential averaging better than 20 yards per reception in week 3. He’s a risky play, but I like him as a flex in PPR or standard leagues.

TE-Ryan Griffin (TE2) The Texans have gone through more tight ends in the first two weeks, than most teams go through in a full season. Well last week they may have found one that sticks, Ryan Griffin. With a rookie quarterback, the tight end position is going to be important and quite possibly heavily utilized. Griffin was only targeted 6 times on Sunday, but he grabbed five balls for 61 yards and a score. As his chemistry with his quarterback improves, so might the numbers.

Keep on your radar

QB-Brian Hoyer & QB-Jared Goff; now I’m not going to rattle any cages or bang any drums here, but I will just say both of these quarterbacks should be followed. I believe at some point this season, both could be worthy of roster spots if they aren’t already.

WR-Robert Woods; I wouldn’t call the Rams offense explosive, but it is loaded with talent and skill. And head coach Sean McVay may just be the guy to get the most out of it. Woods has been relatively quietly through 3 weeks, but he did make a little noise on Thursday night. He’s not ready for primetime, but he’s one to watch in the coming weeks.

WR-Taylor Gabriel; It’s definitely too early to jump on his band wagon, but I think Gabriel should be on your radar as a potential streaming flier. His workload is not consistent (4-3-6 his targets pattern this season), but he’s got boom or bust potential; watch the passing volume and play the matchups.

That’s My Take.

~David Ortega

DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN

September 4th, 2015
Friday

DRAFT STRATEGY: PLAYING TO WIN

If you are ultra-competitive, hate to lose, and always in it to win, then you are a little like me. I may be characterized a little more beyond that and back again; I was born to play games, I love to win, and losing just sucks.

Playing fantasy football has no question brought out all of those wonderful qualities in me that shine best on Sundays. I love to win, although I dont always, but I am always trying that you can count on.

My approach has always been the same when it comes to my fantasy football drafts and as the consumate win-or-die fantasy footballer, I have tried a many strategies and formulas time and time again. I can honestly say I dont have a favorite or go to. I am not sure there is a full proof science or formula to draft, but I am beliver that you have to have a plan when you draft; if you are playing.

With my second draft in the books (completed last Sunday), and a minimum of three more to go this weekend, I wanted to reflect on my recent go-round. Now my first draft was one I approached with balance and looking for minimal risk. My draft position was number 7 in a 10-teamer. That league, although a PPR was a quarteback heavy scoring league. This year is called for some finesse and manuvering to hit all my marks. I think it would generally be scored a B to B+ had I not lost my number one wide receiver Jordy Nelson; no question it's going to be a grind this season and I am going to need a little waiver wire magic if I have any hopes of going deep in the fantasy post-season.

Now my recent draft was a bit different in approach. My play here was swing for the fences and build for the playoff run. This league being more of a standard, balance is key to reach the post-season, but you need some home-runs down the stretch if you hope to make big noise. With the number 8 spot in this 12-teamer PPR league (2-points per reception) Steelers running back LeVeon Bell fell to me and I swung hard for the fence. I am going to miss him the first two games, but this playmaker has tremendous upside and is just the big-bat I'll need in week 14 to make a big hur-rah!

After selecting Megatron (WR-Calvin Johnson) in the 2nd (by the way, I think he's going to finish top three this season) and running back Andre Ellington (46 receptions in 2014) in the 3rd (14th running back off the board....went a little early on him), I took another swing for the fences and pulled Texans running back Arian Foster off the market. Maybe I have been watching a little too much HBO and "Hard Knocks," but when this guy returns like Bell he can be a fantasy football difference maker.

With my 5th round pick (56 overall, 25th WR off the board) I snagged wide receiver Jarvis Landry (84 receptions in 2014), who I think could end up being a bargain since his ADP is around 47th overall. I followed with quarterback Matt Ryan in the 6th (also back him up with Peyton Manning in the 9th-couldn't resist on letting him fall farther) and took another reach with running back Doug Martin in the 7th (35th RB taken); with all the recent positive ink he's been receiving he could also be another bargain. 

Notice the trend, with Bell and Foster taken early, I need to make an early run at running back to fill my squad the first quarter of the season. Even with this early run, I was very happy with the cores of receivers I was able to draft; John Brown (ARI), Phillip Dorsett (IND), Dorial Green-Beckham (TEN), and Leonard Hankerson (ATL). 

In this league, with one flex spot I'll likely be running with three running backs and two wide receivers (Johnson and Landry). I feel real strong about the quality of running backs I took (when healthy) and I believe my two receivers will provide plenty of punch this season.

My strategy here was simple, I drafted for the fantasy playoffs. There's no question my team is filled with great risk, but I believe if I hit on my picks the rewards could be huge. That was my strategy going in, take the risks (Bell & Foster), find the bargains (Landry, Martin, & Manning), and hope they all pay-off and pay-out down the road.

~David G

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

August 27th, 2015
Thursday

MY TOP PPR RUNNING BACKS TO TARGET

With my next fantasy draft coming up in a couple of days, the emphasis in this next draft is PPR and no position will be more important than my backfield. 

As many of may be hearing and seeing, even with the recent onslaught of injuries and suspensions the wide receiver still seems to be the deepest it's ever been. Quite simply fantasy owners can not escape the fact that the running back is by far the highest contact skill position, providing the biggest risk; drafting depth always is and will once again be a premium in PPR or standard leagues.

With my upcoming draft, I am focusing on production yes, but just as important in my thought process is opportunity. In fantasy, opportunity is the prelude to utilization and production.

What I am looking for in my top targets, touches, targets, and production. With this criteria in mind as I prepare for my draft, here are my top running backs to target;

2014 numbers:
Jamaal Charles, KC - 206 carries, 40 receptions, 59 targets (265 chances)
Le'Veon Bell, PIT - 290 carries, 83 receptions, 105 targets (395 chances)
Arian Foster, HOU - 260 carries, 38 receptions, 59 targets (319 chances)
Mark Ingram, NO - 226 carries, 29 receptions, 36 targets (262 chances)
Lamar Miller, MIA - 216 carries, 38 receptions, 52 targets (268 chances)
Justin Forsett, BAL - 235 carries, 44 receptions, 59 targets (294 chances)
Andre Ellington, ARI - 201 carries, 46 receptions, 64 targets (265 chances)


Last season was a bit of a down season for Charles and based on his total chances in 2014, I only see that number increasing a lot.

Bell was a fantasy stud in 2014 and despite the two game suspension to start this season, he should be able to improve upon these numbers from a year ago.

Foster is someone I am looking at trying to steal early. His numbers may taper back a bit this season due to the early injury, but once he's healthy he'll see volume and produce.

Ingram is someone I think I am likely to value higher than most. I believe he can be a bell-cow in New Orleans and with no Immy Graham, the Saints offense will have a more conservative look this season.

Playing in what should be an improved offense, behind a rising star quarterback I can only see Miller continuing his ascent as one of the more reliable runners in the league.

Forsett is another one of those backs I may be valuing higher than most. I watched a lot of his games last season and I am a believer in his skills. He may lose some goal line touches to a bigger back, but he's still going to see plenty of work in the pass game.

I don't really like chasing sleepers and I am not sure that these backs would be considered, but Doug Martin  (missed 5 games last season) in Tampa and Rashad Jennings (208 chances in 11 games) are a pair that I will target in mid-rounds to add depth.

Just my take.

~David G

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Evening Edition

September 9th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Week 1 Recap

Sorting through the Debris

The fantasy football roller-coaster is just starting to pick up speed and with one week in the books, there’s so much to cover and talk about. We have to look at who did what, who was a bust, which sleepers emerged, and which studs were on par this past Sunday. Was there real concern in the Steelers backfield with Le’Veon Bell and LeGarette Blount splitting carries, who is the real feature back in New England, and with Wes Welker missing which Broncos receiver emerged to pick up the slack?

With all of this to sort through it can become real over-whelming for fantasy owners looking to rebound from their week one debacle or continue their winning ways following a season opening win. There’s never too much information when it comes to fantasy football, just sometimes we need to take a minute to sort through the debris and see a clear picture.

The refuse…

With Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell seeing the bulk of work (27 touches) in week one, looks like fantasy owners that drafted running back LeGarrette Blount (4 touches) may have to rethink their strategy. He did sneak in a score, but going forward if he is limited to few touches, owners can’t count on consistent production.

There was a lot of hype surrounding the Lions rookie tight end Eric Ebron, but for now that’s all there is. Ebron was targeted just twice and did not record a catch. He’s not worth owning at this time; at least not until fantasy owners see something.

The Cardinals running back Andre Ellington saw plenty of action on Monday night; 18 touches. Back-up running back Jonathan Dwyer saw about the most action he might see all season; 9 touches for 28 yards. You can toss Dwyer back into the pile.

The Salvage….

The Ravens basically benched running back Bernard Pierce after fumbling, which opened the door for running back Justin Forsett. The journeyman back finished with 16 touches, which included 6 targets. Going forward, in light of the Ray Rice loss Forsett should continue to see plenty of action as long as he responds as he did in week one; he had 84 total yards and a score.

The Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger likes his receiver Antonio Brown, but his second year wideout Marcus Wheaton could quickly become his second favorite. Wheaton has great speed and tremendous upside, along with his seven targets (tied for most on team) on Sunday he looks to be busy fantasy receiver as well. Wheaton is probably a low WR3 or flex at the moment, but should be owned.

So much for the worry surrounding Texans receiver Andre Johnson; he was a bit quiet on Sunday, but still turned in a decent fantasy day with six receptions for 93 yards. His nine targets should be a real indicator he’s still a safe fantasy play on Sunday.

The Broncos just have too many weapons and with Wes Welker out, quarterback Peyton Manning just dipped into his receiving depth targeting wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders nine times. Sanders also added a carry for 11 yards. He’s a safe weekly play as a mid flex or high WR3.

Lastly, I heard about this kid early last week, the Saints rookie receiver Brandin Cooks and what I saw on Sunday confirmed the deal. Cooks is a special talent that we’ll continue to see lots of moving forward. On Sunday he totaled 95 yards with one receiving touchdown on 8 touches. In the Saints explosive pass game Cooks should be a gamer. Owners may want to temper their expectations momentarily until we see a larger sample, but he should be a safe flex for now.

These are just some of my takes for the Week 1 recap.

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Tuesday Evening Edition

September 2nd, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Draft Day Frenzy: Ready, Set, Go!

There’s nothing like the adrenaline rush the fantasy owner gets from participating in a fantasy football draft and watching the clock ticker countdown. Of course not to be compared to scaling the tallest mountains or jumping from a plane at 10,000 feet, but for the fantasy owner this experience comes just once a year and it’s a big thrill.

Now try drafting in 18 fantasy leagues and we are talking fantasy football overload. Yes, that’s right over the past 10 ten days I managed to participate in most of 18 fantasy drafts. No need to call Guinness, I am sure it’s not close to any kind of record. But what I can tell you, it was a lot of fun (being the fantasy football fanatic that I am) and it was very educational.

Of the 18 leagues that I will be playing in, only three are traditional money leagues while the others will be for nothing more than bragging rights and the ability to declare myself (in my own head) the King of fantasy football (when I dominate most of them).

The first important lesson that I learned from all of these fantasy drafts, I am able to multi-task; exhibited on Saturday when I had two drafts going simultaneous. The second lesson learned you have to be present on draft day; auto-pick is never kind. You have to be present to pick your winner.

With all that aside, the past week has offered me a deeper look into some of the deeper fantasy options “the ones to watch” and favorites that went a little later.

As far as some of the favorites that slid down the draft two of the most noteworthy was wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and running back Chris Johnson. Speaking from a strictly fantasy football perspective and fan insight, I can’t understand why Fitzgerald has been so overlooked (drafting late in the 4^th and into the 5^th round). He has his quarterback (Carson Palmer) returning and physically looks as good as ever. The Cardinals passing offense is fully loaded with running back Andre Ellington and wide receiver Michael Floyd to complement Fitz. He’s a crafty veteran with (still) great hands and a nose for the end-zone; my book he finishes in the top-10.

For running back Chris Johnson, a fresh start and new beginning could be just what this Jet needs to soar again. He’s in an ideal fit for a talented runner; a coach that loves to run. Johnson’s a homerun hitter that does not need volume; he can make a huge fantasy impact with 15-18 carries consistently week in and week out. As long as he stays healthy, CJ2K has a chance to return to the top-10 in rushing this season. He’s still got the wheels to make the big plays and could easily hit double-digit scores in 2014. I like Johnson as a possible top 5 fantasy running back; a big step up from a year ago where he finished 11^th in standard scoring.

We are just two days away from the start of the 2014 season and there’s still so much fantasy football to discuss. Are you ready for some fantasy football?

~David Ortega

FSH NOTEBOOK: DAVID'S DAILY DIGEST

Thursday Evening Edition

August 28th, 2014 

 

David’s Daily Digest

Picking Favorites

Thinking Draft Strategy

So you have the first pick in your league’s draft or maybe you have one of the early picks, either way you have a decision to make; pick with your heart, your gut, or do you follow some pre-planned strategy?

What I have been noticing (and something you may be seeing as well) in the top positions, if you grab one of the big four running backs you will still be able to come back with solid receivers late in the 2^nd and early in the 3^rd round. It seems most league players are jostling for running backs early leaving time for the early picks to come back with the Alshon Jefferys, Julio Jones, and Randall Cobbs.

And what I have also noticed (in PPRs), you can still turn around in the 4^th, 5^th, and 6^th rounds and find decent value; the likes of Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller, and Andre Ellington. These are the players that may not win your weekly matchup on their own, but they will give you good production every week and keep you in the hunt so your big guns can get it done.

In a recent draft I held the 2^nd pick and took Adrian Peterson. With one of the top producing backs in the league I immediately targeted receivers selecting Jordy Nelson and Alshon Jeffery. I followed those two with Roddy White and Reggie Bush; not sexy, but effective. Andrew Luck (my quarterback) was taken in the 6^th and my first tight end (Kyle Rudolph) came off the board in the 7^th.

In another draft I did tonight, I followed a similar pattern (picking in the 8^th slot) selecting receiver-receiver (Dez Bryant and Alshon) and then going running back with my next three picks; Reggie Bush, Andre Ellington, and Chris Johnson. My quarterback (Matt Ryan) and tight end (Dennis Pitta) came in the 7^th and 8^th round respectively.

If you are paying attention, then I am sure you are hearing the same thing; wait on your quarterback, there is time to take him later. Even grabbing a Brees, Manning, or Rodgers can be costly (depending on your league scoring), if taken too early. Let the other deal with that mistake and stick to your plan. The Ryans, Romos, and Cutlers are safe plays with the upside of big game potential and the Flaccos, Palmers, and Rivers will still be there even later to have your back in a jam.

With all of this said there are a lot of ideas and strategies you can follow, and any you choose is never wrong (it’s whatever works for you). But remember to stay on your game and be ready for the wild cards in the draft that can often foul things up.

No matter what happens, stay the course and draft well my friend.

Good luck this fantasy season!

~David Ortega